Thoughts On Wisconsin’s Win Over The Nebraska Cornhuskers
The #11 Wisconsin Badgers and #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers played a great game on Saturday night. In the end, the Badgers won 23-17 in overtime to hand the Huskers their first lost of the season. The Badgers still have a chance to win the Big Ten West Division with this victory.
The Badgers had some good moments (the defense) and some bad moments (special teams, offense) in this win. Let’s take a look at some thoughts below.
1. The defense came up huge again – How resilient is this defense? The injuries are piling up, yet everyone is stepping up and the defense is not missing many beats. This game was also opposite of what is normal for the Badgers. The rushing defense allowed 152 yards (they had allowed only 103 yards rushing per game coming into this contest), but the pass defense was superb for the most part allowing only 153 yards on 12 of 31 throwing for Nebraska. There were some missed tackles and coverages, but those can be corrected with practice and game action.
The fourth quarter and overtime was bad for the Badgers offense. Wisconsin committed two turnovers, a missed field goal, and a missed extra point. However, the Badgers allowed only three points in the fourth quarter that was dominated by Nebraska. D’CotaDixon’s pass breakup in overtime saved kicker Andrew Endicott from a terrible week…
2. Andrew Endicott continues to struggle – Endicott has been shaky since his first action against Michigan State. He missed an extra point in that game and he missed another one against Nebraska. This time it was in overtime where the Badgers still had to play defense to win the game.
Endicott also missed a potential game winning field goal from 45 yards in the final two minutes. In the last two games, Endicott is 2 for 5 on field goal attempts. Perhaps last week’s game against Iowa was just the tip of the iceberg. The kicking game needs to be fixed or the Badgers may end up losing because of it.
3. Two quarterback system appears here to stay – Both AlexHornibrook and Bart Houston saw playing time, just as they did against Iowa last week. Both led scoring drives in the first half with Hornibrook’s ending in a touchdown and Houston’s in a field goal. Neither player has outshined the other this season, which is probably why Paul Chryst will continue to use both players. Chryst even said as much about the use of both quarterbacks for the rest of the season in his halftime interview.
Both quarterbacks threw horrendous picks in the fourth quarter. Hornibrook was first when he stared down Troy Fumgalli, but Houston’s interception was just as egregious. He threw across his body and into double coverage two plays after a big run by Dare Ogunbowale. Both passes were inexcusable and only make it more difficult to separate them.
4. What happened to Bradrick Shaw? – Bradrick Shaw had one rushing attempt for 21 yards and a touchdown, but was seen just once after that (a two yard rush that resulted in a first down). Why? Corey Clement was ineffective for most of the game while Dare Ogunbowale did most of his damage during the second half. Shaw could have gotten more touches in the first 30 minutes to give the Huskers another attacking option to defend against.
5. Dare Ogunbowale is underrated – Let’s be honest about this game for the Badgers rushing attack: Corey Clement did very little for most of the game. Outside of his 41 yard rush, Clement ran for 41 yards on 18 carries. That is a credit to the Huskers defense for shutting him down, but they had trouble with Ogunbowale for the second straight year. In 2015, he finished with 117 yards on 18 carries.
He finished with 120 yards and the game winning touchdown on 11 carries this time around. He was decisive with his cuts, explosive, and most importantly he was the best offensive weapon for the Badgers. We have seen his pass catching prowess out of the backfield, but his running game is underrated. He has shown to be a big weapon for the Badgers when Clement cannot get going.
Wisconsin improved to 6-2 on the season with the victory and are now one game behind Nebraska in Big 10 play at 3-2. The Badgers have to travel to face Northwestern next week, who also sit at 3-2 in the Big Ten. Below are previous columns providing thoughts on each Wisconsin game this season.
We are entering the final weekend in October and there are some huge games on the horizon this week and beyond. For week nine the big games are #10 West Virginia at Oklahoma State, #14 Florida at Georgia, #4 Washington at #17 Utah, #7 Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin, and #3 Clemson at #12 Florida State.
We will focus on games that may not appear to offer much at first glance. These games might not have a national impact, but they could affect a team’s bowl chances or a conference title race. Note that these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.
1. Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (10/27 at 7:30 PM) – This is a massive game for both teams as well as the Sun Belt title picture. Appalachian State sits at 5-2 overall and 3-0 in conference while Georgia Southern is 4-3 overall, but 3-1 in the Sun Belt.
Georgia Southern started the year 3-0 before three straight losses including a 27-26 loss to Arkansas State on the road. They rebounded to defeat New Mexico State last week 22-19 in what was their fourth straight road game.
Appalachian State had that excellent defensive game versus Tennessee to start the season and have only had one stumble and one hiccup since then. They were crushed at home by Miami (FL) 45-10 and played a thrilling 45-38 game at Akron, which they won. Their defense will have a test against the Georgia Southern triple option.
Both teams still have to face fellow Sun Belt contender Troy later this year. Appalachian State travels to play them on 11/12 while Georgia Southern faces them at home on 12/3. This game could make the Appalachian State-Troy game the Sun Belt decider if Georgia Southern cannot get the win.
2. Connecticut at East Carolina (10/29 at 12 PM) – This game will probably determine which team finishes at the bottom of the AAC East. Currently, Connecticut is at 1-4 in AAC play and East Carolina is 0-3.
Connecticut has been a tough customer this year in almost every game. However, they only have a 3-5 record to show for it with five of their games determined 8 points or less (2-3 record). East Carolina has not been so tough with just a 2-5 record overall and five straight losses. Only the loss at South Carolina (20-15) has been less than a touchdown with the other four losses all by 12 points or more.
This game also has potential bowl implications. A win for Connecticut would still keep their hopes alive with three difficult, but winnable games to end the season. A win for East Carolina would keep their bowl hopes alive, but still leave them a lot of work to do with Tulsa, SMU, Navy, and Temple to end the season. A loss for either team leaves zero margin for error the rest of the season.
3. Duke at Georgia Tech (10/29 at 12 PM) – Neither of these two squads will win the ACC Coastal, but they both have legitimate hopes for reaching a bowl game. And both teams need to win this game when looking at their final four games.
Let’s start with Duke’s final five games: Georgia Tech (away), Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh (away), and Miami (FL) (away). For Georgia Tech it is Duke, North Carolina (away), Virginia Tech (away), Virginia, and Georgia (away).
With Duke currently at 3-4, this win would put them at .500 and the Blue Devils would need two wins. Given their last four games, they would have to be two upsets, which are possible with this team, but would also be a very tall order. Georgia Tech would move to 5-3 with a win and they would need one win to reach a bowl game with Virginia their best chance to win.
4. Kentucky at Missouri (10/29 at 12 PM) – Here is a contest that could elicit quite a bit of offense. Missouri’s decent start to the season has completely dissipated with the defense giving up 44.3 points and 580 yards per game over their last three games. Kentucky’s offense put up 554 yards on Mississippi State in their 40-38 win last week.
Kentucky is in much better shape to make a bowl game with their 4-3 record. After Missouri, they will face Georgia, Tennessee (away), FCS Austin Peay, and Louisville (away). A win here and they are very likely to hit 6 wins this year at minimum. Missouri needs a lot of help sitting at 2-5, but a win here helps somewhat. They finish with South Carolina (away), Vanderbilt, Tennessee (away), and Arkansas.
5. Army at Wake Forest (10/29 at 3:30 PM) – No conference implications here, but there are bowl implications. Army started 2016 quite well going 3-0 before losing back-to-back games on the road to Buffalo and Duke by a combined 10 points. They crushed Lafayette before last week’s blowout loss to North Texas at home 35-18. At 4-3 there are plenty of chances let for this team to get to 6 or 7 wins and this could be a game they can steal.
Wake Forest has been a surprise team this year and are currently at 5-2. Their losses have been to North Carolina State and Florida State on the road, but this defense has been good. Their hands will be full as their defense allows 119.3 rushing yards per game and will face Army’s top ranked rushing attack that averages 366.8 yards per game.
Army finishes the season with the trio of Air Force, Notre Dame, and Morgan State at home before the finale against Navy. If Army can steal a win here, they will be in solid shape. On the flip side, a win here for Wake Forest will put them in their first bowl game since 2011 when they lost the Music City Bowl to Mississippi State 23-17.
6. SMU at Tulane (10/29 at 4 PM) – Here is another potential basement battle (in the AAC West), but both teams still have a shot at making a bowl game despite identical 3-4 records.
SMU is coming off their blowout win at home over #11 Houston 38-16 and a close loss the week before on the road at Tulsa (43-40). SMU will be facing Memphis, East Carolina (away), South Florida, and Navy to end the season so a win against Tulane would still require an upset or two in order to become bowl eligible.
Tulane has lost two in a row against Memphis (24-14 at home) and Tulsa last week (50-27). Their final four games are Central Florida (away), Houston (away), Temple, and Connecticut (away). A win here and they would have a decent chance of beating both Central Florida and Connecticut to become bowl eligible, but those are both away games.
7. Boise State at Wyoming (10/29 at 7 PM) – The Mountain West’s Mountain division title could be on the line here. Both Boise State and Wyoming sit at 3-0 in conference play though a win could be far more important for the Broncos.
Boise State is 7-0 overall, but their last two games have not been easy. Two weeks ago they led Colorado State 28-3 with 5 minutes left in the game and held on for a 28-23 win. Last week’s game against BYU saw the Broncos commit 5 turnovers including two interceptions returned for touchdowns, but a fourth quarter rally and strong defense in the final 15 minutes saw them eke out a 28-27 win.
Wyoming is currently 5-2 overall and there is a distinct pattern to their wins: they score a lot of points. In each of their 5 victories they have put up at least 35 points while in their two losses they have averaged just 20.5 points. They may have to score 35 or more points if they want to win this game and take control of the Mountain Division.
A win here for Boise State would likely wrap up the division for them with four games to play. The Broncos face San José State, Hawaii (away), UNLV, and Air Force (away) in the final four games and it is difficult to see them losing more than one game, if they even lose any at all. The Broncos can still overcome a loss but would need help from Wyoming’s final four opponents: Utah State, UNLV (away), San Diego State, and New Mexico (away). That is possible, but the Broncos have their sights set on a possible big bowl game and they can only do that by winning out.
8. Middle Tennessee at Florida International (7 PM) – Both of these squads are part of the wide open C-USA East division race. Middle Tennessee stepped out of conference play to defeat the SEC East’s Missouri Tigers. Florida International lost their first conference game last week to Louisiana Tech at home 44-24.
Middle Tennessee looks like the better team on paper, but that is not where games are played. Their two losses are to Vanderbilt on the road (47-24) and Western Kentucky at home in double overtime (44-43). That loss to WKU has already put them a bit behind the Hilltoppers and MTSU still has to play UT-San Antonio, Marshall (away), Charlotte (away), and Florida Atlantic. The UTSA game is clearly the most difficult, but they cannot overlook their road games.
FIU started 0-4 before winning three straight against Florida Atlantic, UTEP, and Charlotte. As previously mentioned, they lost to Louisiana Tech and the competition becomes harder with MTSU this week followed by Western Kentucky (away), Marshall, and Old Dominion (away) to end the season. FIU still has a chance to win this division, but it will not be easy and they must win this game.
Check back next week for the week ten edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.
Thoughts On Wisconsin’s Win Over The Iowa Hawkeyes
The battle for the Heartland Trophy ended with the #10 Wisconsin Badgers winning 17-9 over the Iowa Hawkeyes on the road. It marks the fourth win in the last five games over Iowa with all four wins coming on the road at Iowa. The game was very physical and defensive as expected for these two teams. The Badgers looked good in some areas while others are a continuing concern. Let’s take a look at some thoughts on the Badgers’ victory:
1. The Special Teams were horrendous – It was not a good game for the Badgers’ special teams unit. Andrew Endicott went 1 for 3 on his field goal attempts including a terrible 32 yard miss on the first drive of the game. His 52 yard miss was more forgivable that was pushed just to the right of the post while his 36 yard make was just inside the post. He entered the game 4 for 4 on the season.
The punting game was very poor as well. The Badgers had 5 punts and averaged only 30.2 yards per punt between Anthony Lotti and P.J. Rosowski. There was also the kickoff to Desmond King in the final 90 seconds of the game that was returned 77 yards and gave the Hawkeyes a chance to make it an uncomfortable finish.
Special teams are where the hidden yards can be found and have a profound impact on the game in terms of field position. Let’s see how this unit improves against Nebraska next week.
2. Bart Houston makes a surprise appearance – This probably was the most surprising part of the game, but the reasoning for his appearance is more of a mystery. Houston came in for the Badgers’ third drive of the game and let them to a touchdown when he connected with Troy Fumagalli from 17 yards out. Hornibrook did take a big hit on the second drive of the game, but Houston also came back in for the first drive of the fourth quarter, which the Badgers did not score on. Houston did play well in his limited action…
3. Is there another quarterback switch on the horizon? – This is a fair question because Hornibrook had some struggles. Early in the game he had a couple of questionable throws in the flat and did not always look comfortable. However, Hornibrook did not have a bad game and Houston played well in his limited action. Is Paul Chryst trying to throw a wrinkle for opposing teams? Or is there a real chance that he might switch quarterbacks?
4. Red Zone inefficiencies continue – The Badgers have struggled all year getting touchdowns in the red zone and the game versus Iowa offered plenty of chances to correct that. Sure, the Badgers scored 2 touchdowns, but they could have made this game a lot more comfortable had they converted more of them. Coming into the game, Wisconsin had 23 red zone opportunities, but only 13 touchdowns (56.5%)
Against Iowa, the Badgers started off with a missed 31 yard field goal. Late in the second quarter, Corey Clement fumbled on the doorstep of the end zone that ended up resulting in a touchback, which Iowa converted into a field goal to make it a 7-6 game at halftime. The finished with a field goal late in the game to finish 2 of 5 on red zone touchdowns. The Badgers are now 15 of 28 (53.5%) in scoring red zone touchdowns and that percentage has only been going down the last few weeks.
5. The offense was both good and bad – We mentioned part of the bad with the red zone issues, but there was also the running game. The Badgers were not good running the ball. As a team they had 48 carries for 167 yards to produce a 3.5 yards per carry average. The offense was averaging 2.9 yards per carry until Corey Clement broke 34 yard run late in the game. Clement finished the game with 35 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown (plus that fumble on the goal line). This still is not the type of Badger rushing attack that we are accustomed to seeing. The receiving duo of Jazz Peavy (3 catches for 26 yards) and Troy Fumagalli (2 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown) were held in check for most of this game, but others did step up.
The good part of the offense was the passing attack and it did not really matter if it was Bart Houston of Alex Hornibrook throwing the ball. Hornibrook hit Kyle Penniston for 54 yards thanks to a missed tackle, but he also had a nice ball over the top to Quintez Cephus for 57 yards. Houston went 4 of 6 for 59 yards and a touchdown while he looked crisp running the offense. There was also DareOgunbowale out of the backfield converting three big third downs through the air. He finished with 4 catches for 51 yards and only 2 rushes for 10 yards. All those small yardage runs helped the passing game to get open, but did it really feel like a typical Badger offense?
6. The defense gets back to Badger Ball – The defense has been really good at not allowing touchdowns. They have given up only 8 touchdowns all year and the red zone defense has seen them give up only 7 touchdowns on 16 attempts. Against Iowa they were stout again giving up just three field goals including one that was pushed out of the red zone. The defense allowed only 2 of 13 conversions on third down for the Iowa offense and 83 yards rushing (3.1 yards per carry for Iowa’s rushing attack). This bend, but do not break philosophy has been the backbone of the defense and propelled the team to their 5-2 record.
7. Defense misses out on possible turnovers – The defense played a very good game, but we can still lament about the missed turnovers. On Iowa’s first two drives of the second half there were three fumbles by the Hawkeyes. Yet, the Badgers failed to recover any of them. This is the only real gripe against a unit that is continually leaned on to carry the team.
Wisconsin is now 5-2 overall and 2-2 in Big Ten play. They have a massive game at home next week against the Big Ten West leading Nebraska Cornhuskers. The Badgers need a win next week as well as another Nebraska loss to take control of the division. Below are previous columns providing thoughts on each Wisconsin game this season.
We are closing in on week eight and there are some big games this week. Miami (FL) is at Virginia Tech, TCU is at #12 West Virginia, #6 Texas A&M travels to face #1 Alabama in the biggest game of the week, #17 Arkansas is at #21 Auburn, #2 Ohio State plays Penn State on the road, and #23 Ole Miss is at #25 LSU.
Those are big games, but we will take a look at some of the games not listed above that could have an impact on week eight and beyond. Note that these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.
1. Oregon at California (10/21 at 10:30 PM) – This game will be nationally televised, but the implications are huge. Oregon is on a four game losing streak and sits at 2-4 overall. They had a bye last week and one can only assume the defense was the focal point (Oregon has given up at least 35 points each game during their losing streak).
California has alternated between wins and losses this year to get to 3-3. Their offense has been very good this year too with Davis Webb at the helm (2,256 yards at 60.8% with 22 touchdowns and 7 interceptions), which presents a great opportunity against Oregon’s porous defense. Oregon’s defense gives up 522 yards per game including 284 yards through the air.
Oregon needs this win more than California, but the road to end the season for both teams is not easy. Oregon faces Arizona State, USC (away), Stanford, Utah (away), and Oregon State (away) after the Cal game. How many wins are there for the Ducks with this defense?
California has USC (away), Washington, Washington State (away), Stanford, and UCLA after playing Oregon. Their schedule is tough as well and a win will help both teams if they want to make a bowl game.
2. Indiana at Northwestern (10/22 at 12 PM) – On paper, Northwestern seems like the favorite given their back-to-back road wins over Iowa and Michigan State. As of this posting, the Wildcats are favored by a point and a half. Indiana is a scrappy team though and they could make things interesting.
The key in this game, and for Northwestern’s offense, is Justin Jackson. He ran for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns (all in the opener) on 83 carries through his first four games for an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Against Iowa and Michigan State, he has rushed for a combined 359 yards and 3 touchdowns on 60 carries for an average of 6 yards per rush. In turn, he allows the passing game to flourish especially if the ball is headed towards Austin Carr. Carr has 5 touchdowns in the last two games, but he has been producing all season long (at least 5 catches and 73 yards in every game).
For Indiana, this year’s team is different. It is no longer just about out-scoring the opponent and hope the defense can make a stop or two. The defense is a cohesive unit that can consistently play well in 2016. For 2015, the defense gave up 37.6 points per game compared to 25.3 points per game through six games this year. The hiring of Tom Allen has no doubt improved the defense and they will have their hands full with Justin Jackson this week.
Both teams enter this game at 3-3 and it is clear the winner will be in a very good position to make a bowl. However, a loss can be overcome with both teams having 3 winnable games in their final five contests.
3. Akron at Ball State (10/22 at 3 PM) – This is not the biggest game of the week for the MAC. That is listed two slots below, but this is a big game for both teams in their respective division.
Akron is currently a joint-first with Ohio in the MAC East at 2-1 in conference play. They are coming off a shellacking at the hands of the top MAC team Western Michigan 41-0. It was not pretty as the offense put up 283 yards of offense and the defense gave up 585 yards. The offense did not get into Broncos’ territory until late in the first half.
Ball State got their first conference win this year over Buffalo after losses to Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. James Gilbert, who has been good this year, had a monster game with 264 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns on 34 carries. It was his fourth 100 yard rushing game this year and third in a row (at least 2 rushing touchdowns in the last three games as well). It is worth noting that Jarvion Franklin ran for 281 yards and 1 touchdown in Western Michigan’s win over Akron in week 7.
How good is Ball State? How will Akron respond to their drubbing? Those questions will be answered this week and beyond in Ball State’s case. At this point, Akron can only have one more loss prior to their game at Ohio to end the season if they want to have a chance at winning the MAC East. Ball State still has to face Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo this year, so a win may be crucial this week just to try to make a bowl game.
4. Memphis at Navy (10/22 at 3:30 PM) – This is a big AAC West Division tilt. Memphis is 2-0 in the AAC while Navy is 3-0 in conference. Plus, Navy has the win over Houston from their last game so a win here would really help the Midshipmen given their schedule to end the season.
The defense for Memphis has been solid this year giving up 19.3 points per game and 140 yards rushing per game. The latter is more pertinent against the triple option of Navy. Navy’s offense puts up 32.2 points per game and 262.4 yards rushing per game. In last year’s game, Navy put up 374 yards rushing against Memphis, but that offense included Keenan Reynolds and and Chris Swain, both of whom are no longer there.
Memphis had Paxton Lynch in 2015 and now Riley Ferguson has taken over at quarterback. Ferguson has done well throwing for 1,596 yards (65.5%) with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Memphis’ toughest opponent this year has been Ole Miss, a game in which Ferguson threw for 343 yards, but with no touchdowns and three interceptions. If he can continue to be accurate and avoid interceptions, this team has a good chance of winning.
Memphis still has to face Tulsa, SMU, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston to end the season so a win here will help and give them some confidence. Navy will play South Florida, Notre Dame, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, and Army to end the season.
5. Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan (10/22 at 3:30 PM) – Here is another MACtion game, but this one is the marquee matchup this week.
Eastern Michigan has been a surprise this year. They are 5-2 and sit one win away from their first bowl game since 1987. They defeated MAC East contender Ohio on the road last week 27-20. BroganRoback threw for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions to lead the Eagles.
Western Michigan has been a surprise too, but on a national level. They defeated both Northwestern and Illinois on the road in their first three games. They have looked like the best team in the conference to this point and have a legitimate chance at making a big bowl if they go undefeated and win the MAC Championship. Zach Terrell has been fantastic this year throwing for 1,597 yards with 17 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions. He also has 142 yards on the ground and 5 touchdowns. Jarvion Franklin has been good the last three weeks, which coincides with Jamauri Bogan missing time due to an ankle injury. Franklin has 582 yards and 4 touchdowns on 87 carries the last three games (6.7 yards per carry).
This will be the toughest team Eastern Michigan has faced this year in MAC play (possibly all year if one wants to consider WMU better than Missouri). They will have their hands full, but could keep it interesting. A win for Western Michigan would put them in a commanding position for the MAC West title until their game against Toledo in the season finale.
6. Old Dominion at Western Kentucky (10/22 at 7 PM) – Old Dominion enters this game at 4-2 while Western Kentucky is 4-3. The Monarchs two best opponents so far this year have been Appalachian State and North Carolina State, which ODU lost. Those two games were played on the road and the combined final scores were 80-29. Their other four games have all been 2+ touchdown margin of victories.
As for Western Kentucky, they played #1 Alabama and obviously got crushed, 38-10. However, their other two losses were to Vanderbilt 31-30 in overtime and 55-52 against Louisiana Tech. They have close wins against Middle Tennessee (44-43 in 2 OT last week) and Miami (OH) 31-24.
Old Dominion runs a balanced offense (yardage is 53% passing and 47% rushing). David Washington leads the offense and while his numbers are not impressive, he is efficient. He has thrown for 1,250 yards with 12 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He also has 158 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He completes only 56.4% of his passes, but has only had 1 game with a negative TD to INT ratio (Appalachian State when he threw 1 INT and no touchdowns). The running game will be led by Jeremy Cox (420 yards and 9 touchdowns) and Ray Lawry (373 yards and 3 touchdowns).
Western Kentucky is led by former South Florida quarterback MikeWhite. He has thrown for 2,098 yards with 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. In two seasons at USF, he threw for 2,722 yards with 11 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. His favorite targets are Taywan Taylor (54 catches for 870 yards and 5 touchdowns) and Nicholas Norris (43 catches for 647 yards and 8 touchdowns).
If Old Dominion’s pass defense, which gives up 224 yards per game, can stop Western Kentucky’s offense that puts up 372 yards passing per game (and 526 yards of total offense per game), they will have a chance. The more time they run off the clock, the better chance they have of winning this game.
With both teams in the thick of the C-USA East division race, this game will be important. ODU has yet to face FlU and will also play Marshall and Southern Miss. Western Kentucky will also play FIU and Marshall, but have one loss already in C-USA.
Check back next week for the week nine edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.
1. The Badgers played a really good game – The loss in overtime is crushing, but the overall play of the team was excellent. They faced a top team and hung with them for the second game in a row. The running game looked like the Badgers of old at times, the defense played well, and the atmosphere was second to none.
The game plan was also well thought out. Too much was not asked of Alex Hornibrook (more on him below) and Paul Chryst stuck with the game plan for the entire 60 minutes plus overtime. That may have hurt them in overtime (see the final two plays of the game), but the philosophy did not change.
Chryst made it a point to run the ball even when the Buckeyes seized control at 20-16, he kept running the ball. He did so again in the final three minutes and in the overtime. For all the complaining about the lack of Badger-like rushing, this game should alleviate those concerns for the time being.
2. Hornibrook had another Jekyll and Hyde performance – For the most part, Alex Hornibrook looked good. He made the smart play, whether that was throwing the ball away or taking what the defense gave him. He made a nice throw on the touchdown pass to JazzPeavy to put the Badgers up 10-0 in the first quarter. There were times, however, he looked like the freshman he is.
All four sacks in the game occurred on third or fourth down. The first two came on third and manageable during the first half. The third sack was on third and seven early in the third quarter and the final sack was on the last play of the game. Hornibrook has to at least put the ball up on the final play.
There were also a few bad throws. His only pick was a floated ball towards Robert Wheelwright that was picked off by Gareon Conley.
Hornibrook is a freshman and he will make mistakes. Overall, it was a good performance and the coaching staff will no doubt work on some of those mistakes.
3. The running game looked Badger-esque – The Badgers came to run the ball against Ohio State and that did not change even when they saw momentum turn to the Buckeyes. Corey Clement broke a 68 yard run on the Badgers’ second drive though he was fortunate to not lose the fumble on the play. He finished with 164 yards on 25 carries. The Badgers also employed the end around with Jazz Peavy gaining 70 yards on 6 carries running only that play.
The offensive line was physical all night long and that showed. The Badgers finished with 236 yards on 46 carries with negative 34 yards by Hornibrook on the sacks he took. Including that, the Badgers finished at 5.1 yards per carry, which is a nice bump from their opening five game average of 3.8.
4. The offense did show some inconsistencies – Hornibrook’s performance was touched on as was the running game, but there are other worries. The offense put up 313 yards in the first half, but struggled mightily in the third quarter with just 11 yards on 10 plays. Yes, Ohio State did make some good adjustments, but only 11 yards in 15 minutes of play cannot happen.
Another concern is the red zone touchdown efficiency. The Badgers have shown issues with scoring touchdowns earlier in the season. Coming into the game, the Badgers were 12 for 19 (63%) in scoring red zone touchdowns. Against Ohio State they were 1 for 3 and now sit at 13 for 22 (59%) for 2016. This inefficiency may continue through the end of the season.
5. The defense played solidly against J.T. Barrett – Ohio State presented the Badgers with a new challenge in J.T. Barrett. They did not face a quarterback with his dual threat ability and they performed decently. They did not let him break a big run as he finished with 92 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 carries. They also played well against the pass with Barrett finishing 17 of 29 for 226 yards.
The Badgers did give up a few long passes, but for the most part they did not get torched in the secondary. The one area of concern was the tackling on Barrett. There were quite a few missed open-field tackles, which are understandable, but are also the difference between touchdowns and field goals.
6. Andrew Endicott builds his confidence – Replacing RafaelGaglianone is no easy task, but Andrew Endicott has done so admirably thus far. He was shaky against Michigan State when he missed his second extra point, but he finished the game with a 41 yard field goal and three of four on PATs. He did not have much to do against Michigan with just one extra point attempted and made.
The game against Ohio State was much better. He converted both extra points, but more importantly converted on all three of his field goals. He opened with a 46 yarder on the opening drive before hitting the next two from 32 yards and 22 yards, respectively. He may need to come up big down the stretch and this game is something to keep in mind when he is called upon.
The Badgers are now 4-2 overall and 1-2 in Big Ten play after the loss to Ohio State. They will face the Iowa Hawkeyes next week on the road as they look to end their two game losing streak. Below are the previous columns for the Wisconsin games in 2016.
Week six has come and gone (along with nuisance of Hurricane Matthew we hope). Week seven has some big games including NC State at #3 Clemson, Kansas State at #19 Oklahoma, #20 West Virginia at Texas Tech, North Carolina at #16 Miami (FL), #12 Ole Miss at #22 Arkansas, and #2 Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin.
We will take a look at some of the games not listed above for week seven. Note, these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.
1. Mississippi State at BYU (10/14 at 10:15 PM) – The Bulldogs enter this game off a horrendous performance against Auburn at home. They were run off the field in the first half after giving up 35 points. They played better in the second half, but that is not a consolation after the first 30 minutes they played.
BYU comes in at the opposite end of the spectrum. The went into East Lansing and won 31-14. They were close with the Spartans through three quarters, but really wore them down in the final frame scoring 21 points to Michigan State’s 7. It was a familiar scene with Jamaal Williams toting the rock quite a bit in the final quarter.
In the Bulldogs’ last two losses to LSU and Auburn, they allowed 177 yards rushing and 228 yards rushing, respectively. Williams has put up four games of at least 160 yards rushing this year and BYU is 3-1 in those games. Mississippi State will need to stop Williams if they want to have a chance of winning. Even then, though, they will have to deal with Taysom Hill.
The Bulldogs will need their A+ game in this one, but will also need Nick Fitzgerald to play better. In their two wins, he has put up at least 110 yards (305 total) and 5 touchdowns against 1 interception. In their three losses, he has managed just 85 yards total on 32 carries and just 2 touchdowns against 1 interception. If the Bulldogs get Fitzgerald going, they can stay in striking distance.
BYU sits and 3-3 while Mississippi State is 2-3 so far in 2016. A win for either team will help their bowl chances, but more so for the Bulldogs.
2. Illinois at Rutgers (10/15 at 12 PM) – This game is way under the radar and has no impact on the rest of the season. So why is it on this list? Because both teams are trending in a bad direction under first year head coaches and this is the kind of game that give a team something to build on if they win. Plus, one of these teams can say they did not go winless in conference play at the end of the year.
Illinois (1-4) is on a four game losing streak and last week’s game against Purdue was there for the taking. They had a chance to defeat Purdue, but Chase McLaughlin’s 41 yard kick at the end of the game hit the right upright and Purdue won 34-31 in overtime.
Rutgers (2-4) is well known for their past two performances. They were crushed 58-0 on the road at Ohio State, but last week’s game put them on the map. They were drubbed 78-0 at home to Michigan, who basically ran the ball the final 20 minutes and still ended up with 481 yards on the ground and 9 rushing touchdowns. The duo of Chris Laviano and Zach Allen combined to go 2 for 18 for 5 yards passing for the Scarlet Knights in the passing game. Rutgers managed 34 yards rushing on 36 carries.
One of these teams has to win this game and while it may not get either one to a bowl game, at least they can build off of this game. Hopefully.
3. Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech (10/15 at 12:30 PM) – This is the battle of which Georgia Triple Option offense is better. Both teams have about 67% of their offense from the ground game while both enter on losing streaks with Georgia Southern at two and Georgia Tech at three.
Georgia Southern will have the benefit of an extra three days of preparation due to playing Arkansas State on Wednesday. The Eagles will spread the ball around to their backs. Five players have at least 200 yards and another one has over 100 yards: Matt Breida (279 yards and 1 touchdown), Wesley Fields (279 and 3 TDs), FavianUpshaw (254 and 2 TDs), Kevin Ellison (252 yards and 3 TDs), L.A. Ramsby (208 and 3 TDs), and Demarcus Godfrey (124 yards).
Georgia Tech has lost three in a row, but they have faced some tough opponents in Clemson, Miami (FL), and Pittsburgh with only Pittsburgh on the road. The ball will usually go into the hands of Dedrick Mills (82 carries for 357 yards and 7 TDs) or quarterback Justin Thomas (64 carries for 206 yards and 1 TD). Another one to watch out for is Clinton Lynch. He only has 19 carries, but has gone for 254 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He also has 6 catches for 134 yards and another touchdown. If he breaks one, it might be the difference.
This game will be old school triple option offense with a lot of running and sporadic amounts passing. Georgia Southern sits at 3-2 and while a loss here does not crush their bowl hopes, a win would give them a confidence boost going back into Sun Belt play. A win here would be bigger for Georgia Tech because their run in consists of Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Georgia. There is no margin for error with a loss here.
4. New Mexico at Air Force (10/15 at 3:30 PM) – A Mountain West battle ensues as the Lobos will travel to face Air Force. New Mexico comes off a big loss to Boise State at home where the offense racked up a ton of yards on the ground, but not much on the scoreboard. They got crushed 49-21 with two late scores flattering the scoreline.
Air Force lost their first game of the season last week to Wyoming on the road 35-26. The Falcons were forced to rely on the passing attack, which ended badly as Nate Romine went 6 of 19 for 188 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. They may be facing a poor pass defense in New Mexico, but Air Force football is a triple option first with some passing sprinkled in.
This game should feature a lot of running. Air Force only managed 149 yards on 39 carries against Wyoming, but they like to pass the ball closer to 15 times a game instead of 20. New Mexico averages 354 rushing yards per game from their version of the triple option between Teriyon Gipson (399 yards and 5 TDs on 31 carries in only 3 games), Tyrone Owens (390 yards and 2 TDs on 63 carries), LamarJordan (287 yards and 1 TD on 50 carries in basically 3 games), and Richard McQuarley (242 yards and 7 TDs on 47 carries). Gipson missed the game versus Boise State due to hamstring. He is expected to be back for this game and it will be worth watching to see how effective he is against Air Force.
Both teams have a loss in conference play, but Air Force has not played Boise State yet this season. New Mexico could use a win going into the back half of their schedule while Air Force could use this game to get the run game back on track (last two games have seen the offense finish with more passing yards than rushing yards).
5. Northwestern at Michigan St (10/15 at 3:30 PM) – This game will feature both teams at 2-3, which was not expected before the season. Northwestern got a big win before their bye week with a 38-31 win on the road over Iowa. The offense easily looked the best they have all year against Iowa with Justin Jackson getting 171 yards on 26 carries and Austin Carr catching 3 touchdown passes (6 catches for 73 yards total) from Clayton Thorson (164 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions).
Michigan State has not looked anything like the Spartans of the past 5 years during their three game losing streak. Against Wisconsin and BYU they were physically dominated. BYU ran wild on the Spartans in the fourth quarter while Indiana put up 437 yards of offense on them.
The loser of this game drops to 2-4, which will be very difficult to navigate the final half of the year. Northwestern will face Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois. Michigan State plays Maryland, Michigan, Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State, and Penn State. This is a big game for both teams.
6. Missouri at Florida (10/15 at 4 PM) – Missouri is 2-3 on the season alternating between losses and wins to start the campaign. They most recently lost to LSU 42-7 on the road and they were dominated in that game. Florida comes in off a win against Vanderbilt, but it was an ugly win. They also had to deal with the postponement of their contest against LSU due to Hurricane Matthew.
Florida’s defense has been very good against every team except Tennessee. They have given up a total of 20 points in their four wins and only 163.5 total yards per game in those four as well. Meanwhile, Missouri’s offense put up a lot yards prior to the LSU game and that will be an interesting matchup for them against the Florida defense. Drew Lock has thrown for 1,675 yards with 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He will find this group to be a big step up compared to some of his other opponents.
This game could help shape the SEC East. Florida has just one loss and can still win the division with some help. Missouri already has two losses in conference play and is now looking to make a bowl game. A win here would help and really put a dent in Florida’s SEC East hopes.
Check back next week for the week eight edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.
The Wisconsin Badgers may be on a bye during week six, but that just means we can review their season up to this point. Consider it a de facto mid-season review through five games. We will give a grade to each unit on the team as well as an overall team grade and a grade for head coach Paul Chryst. Let’s start with a quick glance at what the Badgers have done so far.
Paul Chryst is only 18 games into his Wisconsin career and he stands at an 14-4 record. In 2016, the most noticeable attribute for Chryst is the willingness to take a chance and stick with it. He will roll the dice on fourth down as noted by his six attempts on fourth down. Of those, five of them were in opponent’s territory with an average placement of the opponent’s 18 yard line for those five attempts.
Then there was switch at quarterback. With the offense struggling against Georgia State in the third game of the season, Chryst pulled Bart Houston in favor of freshman Alex Hornibrook. The move paid immediate dividends as the offense perked up versus Georgia State and he looked solid against Michigan State. Hornibrook struggled against Michigan as did the offense, which is part of larger struggles that will be touched on below. The running game is not up to par by Wisconsin’s standards, which does hurt his grade.
As noted above, Bart Houston started the season at quarterback, but was removed during the second half against Georgia State. AlexHornibrook came in to spark the offense and then played a solid game against Michigan State. He looked more like a freshman against Michigan, but that was a top tier defense he faced.
After watching these two play, it is clear the offense has been better under Hornibrook. Houston’s game against Georgia State was poor, but it was also a perfect mix of things he cannot control coming together: Corey Clement did not play while Taiwan Deal and TroyFumagalli both were injured during that game. In addition, there is still the chance Houston could come back in if Hornibrook struggles.
No matter what happens at quarterback, both have to play better. They will need to be smarter with their passes, not forcing passes, and not getting frustrated. That will come with in-game reps so improvement will be something to look for in the final half of the season. The quarterback position has also been hurt by the poor running game the Badgers have displayed. A good running game can open up the passing lanes.
Corey Clement was looking to have a big 2016 season after an injury ravaged 2015 campaign. His first two games were really good against LSU (21 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown) and Akron (21 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns). It was against Akron that he injured his ankle late in the first half and subsequently missed the Georgia State contest. Against the Michigans, Clement amassed 40 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns (both against Michigan State). It is hard to know exactly how much that ankle injury affected Clement against the Spartans and Wolverines, but his year has been above average.
Behind Clement are the duo of Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal. Ogunbowale has been the better of the two both visually on the field and on the stat sheet with 44 carries for 185 yards and a touchdown (also has a receiving touchdown). Deal has been hampered by injuries and only played in the opening three games (20 carries for 94 yards).
The surprise of this year has been freshman Bradrick Shaw despite playing in only two games. Shaw played in garbage time against Akron, but was impressive with 9 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown. He played a bigger role against Georgia State due to the injuries, but fumbled on the goal line in the first half. He finished with 62 yards on 15 carries in that game. He could be a force in the future if the injuries continue and if he avoids injuries of his own.
The running game has affected for several reasons: injuries, quarterback play, and opposing defenses. The injuries were documented above, but are not limited to just the running backs as they offensive line has been shuffled around as well. While the quarterback play has not been the best that may have to do with opposing defenses keying on stopping the run and putting the game in hands of Houston and Hornibrook. Despite that, the running back group has been decent.
This group was not expected to set the College Football world on fire this year with a new quarterback and some losses of their own to handle. The receivers have shown potential this year and some flashes of being a good group. Jazz Peavy has made some good plays (see an example below) and is the leading receiver with 17 catches for 281 yards and two scores. He also gets in on the rushing game with the sweep to the tune of 54 yards on only 4 carries.
Robert Wheelwright has 18 catches for 274 yards while TroyFumagalli has 16 catches for 181 yards. Both of them have been vital to Houston and Hornibrook as they transitioned at the quarterback position. It has been mainly those three leading the receiving group, but George Rushing (8 catches for 82 yards) has also seen a lot of action.
The development of receivers outside of those four will be important as there are not a lot of other proven options. Tight end Kyle Penniston (3 catches for 35 yards and a touchdown) and fullback Alec Ingold (4 catches for 21 yards and a touchdown) have made the most of their very limited action. If the injury bug strikes, that could wreak havoc on this group.
The five games in 2016 have produced the following yards per carry averages: 3.2, 5.3, 3.8, 3.0, and 2.5. The lowest total in the previous 6 years before Chryst (2009 through 2014) was 4.6 so there is still plenty of upside.
The pass blocking has been decent this year giving up 8 sacks. That does not tell the whole tale because there have been times when the Houston and Hornibrook have loads of time to find the best pass or open man. Overall, this is a work in progress like the rest of the offense.
Overall Offensive Grade
The offense has been subpar this year even when taking in all the factors. The quarterbacks are inexperienced, but have the potential to be solid. The running backs have been banged up, the receivers have been okay, and the offensive line has not been very Badger-like in the run game.
No need to sugarcoat this because the front seven has been great. They give up only 12.2 points per game and just 90.4 yards rushing per game to the opponent. 2015 finished with averages of 13.7 points per game and 95 yards rushing allowed per game.
The defense has recorded 15 sacks so far with T.J. Watt leading the team at 5.5 (29 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss) and Alec James has three. Jack Cichy has been a beast at linebacker (35 tackles and 3.5 tackles-for-loss) along with Vince Biegel, who is currently injured. T.J. Edwards has been huge in the last three games with 26 tackles over those contests.
The front seven has easily been the strength for the Badgers in 2016. The only worry is on the injury front especially if it starts happening to more big time players like Biegel.
The secondary was considered the weak link of the defense coming into the season and there have been some issues. Their worst outing was against Georgia State when slants and in routes were torching the Badger secondary. The team improved against Michigan State and also against Michigan on those kinds of plays.
The secondary is giving up 201 yards per game, which is worse than 2015 when they gave up 173 yards per game. Since the front seven is doing so well against the run, teams have little choice but to pass. In addition, when the Badgers’ opponents are trailing, they are going to pass more to get back in the game, which will also hurt the pass defense numbers.
Derrick Tindal leads the team with 3 interceptions and is also tied for the lead in pass breakups. He is tied with Sojourn Shelton who has been very good at his cornerback spot this year. Leo Musso (23 tackles and an interception) has come up with some big plays this year as well at safety (see the fumble return for a touchdown against Michigan State). The back four has not been without injury as Natrell Jamerson was injured with Lubern Figaro filling in. Also, Tindal had a recent surgery and while he is not expected to miss time, any injury or surgery is a concern.
Overall Defensive Grade
The defense has been the strength of the team and they have helped the Badgers reach their 4-1 record. They will be the key the rest of the way as well and they deserve any accolades they get through five games.
Special Teams Grade
The Badgers lost kicker Rafael Gaglianone to a back injury and that hurts them. He is a reliable kicker (10 for 10 on extra points and 7 for 8 on field goals with a long of 48 yards). He will be replaced by Andrew Endicott, who was shaky against Michigan State with a missed extra point, but hit his other three kicks (1 field goal and three extra points). This will be worth watching for the final part of the season.
The punting game is still unsettled as both Anthony Lotti (37.5 average) and P.J. Rosowski (38.8 average) have seen action at that position. They will need to improve for the Badgers.
The return game has been held in check with no touchdowns and limited return yardage. Jazz Peavy has 7 punt returns for an average of 5.7 yards per return while the kickoff return is led by DareOgunbowale (22 yard average on 6 kick returns). This group will have to improve as well, but they have the playmakers to make this unit dangerous.
Overall Team Grade
Prior to the start of the season, Wisconsin faced a daunting schedule with LSU and then again at the beginning of the Big Ten slate. That did not change as the season went from week to week. LSU was a tough out, but the Badgers won. The same goes for Michigan State, but the Badgers won more convincingly. Then came the Michigan game when the Badgers lost by a touchdown to a Michigan team that had dominated them in every facet, but the score.
To start 4-1 is considered a very good based on what what expected of their opponents at the start of the season. That still has not changed even if LSU fired their coach and Michigan State has not been their best. The tough part is still not over as the Badgers as they face Ohio State, Iowa, and Nebraska to close out October.
The defense has been very good this year allowing 12.2 points per game and helping the offense gain some momentum. The offense has not been in peak form with something always seeming to need work from week to week. However, the overall team performance has been impressive.
Below is the schedule for the Badgers for the rest of the year as well as the results of the first five games.