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25 Predictions for the 2017 College Football Season: 5 Through 1

Wisconsin and Penn State met in the 2016 Big Ten Championship game. Could they meet again in 2017? (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America)

25 Predictions for the 2017 College Football Season: 5 Through 1

The 2017 College Football season is starting this weekend and that means it is time to finish up predictions for the upcoming season. Despite what Nick Saban says about predictions, they are fun to make and see how they play out over an entire season. We will do something different than last year. In 2016, we made 5 predictions for each conference for a total of 55 predictions. The final total was 30.5 predictions correct for 55.5% hit rate.

This year we will make a total of 25 predictions with five each week until August 23. The predictions will range from conference winners to team win totals or bowl games to individual player performances. We will start with the mid-major conferences (predictions 25-16) before ending with the predictions for the Power 5 conferences (predictions 15-1).

This is the fifth edition and we will finish predicting the Power 5 Conferences. Below is the schedule for the 25 predictions.

Predictions 25-21: July 26 (Sun Belt, C-USA, Independents)

Predictions 20-16: August 2 (MAC, MWC, AAC)

Predictions 15-11: August 9 (Big 12, Pac-12)

Predictions 10-6: August 16 (Pac-12, ACC, SEC)

Predictions 5-1: August 23 (SEC, Big 10)

Predictions 5 Through 1

5. (SEC) A 2nd year head coach will win the SEC East – To be clear, this prediction is referring to a coach in his second year at his current school. Three coaches actually fall under this one with Kirby Smart at Georgia, Will Muschamp at South Carolina, and Barry Odom at Missouri. We mentioned Missouri in our last article (we really like their offense going into 2017) so our main focus will be on Georgia and South Carolina.

Georgia went 8-5 last year in Smart’s first season. This year he is armed with seven starters back on offense and 10 on defense. One would expect improvements on both sides of the ball, but more so on defense given Smart’s background. The Bulldogs gave up 24 points and 327 yards per game, which is respectable, but another step forward would make them an even tougher opponent. It is very difficult to see this group getting worse.

On offense, Georgia has Jacob Eason (2,430 yards with 16 touchdowns and 8 interceptions) back at quarterback. Also returning are Nick Chubb (1,130 yards and 8 TDs) and Sony Michel (840 yards and 4 TDs) to form a formidable backfield duo. The offense put up 24.5 points and 385 yards per game in 2016 and those numbers are likely to climb this season.

The key is the schedule and Georgia’s toughest games are versus Tennessee (away), Florida (in Jacksonville), South Carolina (home), and Auburn (away). Yes, three games are away from home, but this team can win all of those and claim the East.

South Carolina is interesting heading into 2017. Muschamp has been around the SEC a long time and his second season in charge at Florida resulted in his best result with the Gators. They went 11-2 overall and 7-1 in the SEC as Florida tied Georgia for the SEC East crown, but lost the head-to-head matchup to the Bulldogs. Things went downhill quickly for the Gators after that season, but one thing that remained was a very good defense.

Like Smart at Georgia, Muschamp has a strong defensive background. South Carolina allowed 26.5 points and 412 yards per game in his first season. Six starters return on that side of the ball and a step forward is expected from this unit.

On offense, the Gamecocks put up 20.8 points and 348 yards per game in 2016 with a quarterback carousel. 2017 sees 10 starters return including sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley (1,420 yards with 9 TDs and 4 interceptions after playing only 7 games). The top two running backs and top five receivers return, which should mean a vast improve in the performance of the offense. Of course, the big concern is if the offense does improve given some of the struggles Muschamp had at times in Gainesville.

South Carolina’s toughest SEC games are against Texas A&M (away), Arkansas (home), Tennessee (away), Georgia (away), and Florida (home). They too can win both games versus West opponents and a 2-1 split of the other games would go a long way to being the surprise in the East.

Both Georgia and South Carolina are set up for big moves in 2017 though Georgia looks a bit more ready to make the jump thanks to their offense. However, sometimes an excellent defense can carry a team, which may be what South Carolina needs in 2017.

4. (SEC) Auburn will win the SEC West – Let’s start by saying that Alabama is the team to beat in the West and entire SEC, but why make a prediction like that? We take a shot with the Auburn Tigers.

On offense, Auburn returns 8 starters though one of them will not be at quarterback. That will go to Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham who won the starting role earlier this month. He will have the luxury of Kamryn Pettway (1,224 yards and 7 TDs) and Kerryon Johnson (895 yards and 11 TDs) to run the ball. The passing attack should improve on the numbers of the last two seasons of 169 yards per game in 2016 and 174 yards per game in 2015. Stidham give this offense a boost and makes them even more potent.

The defense returns 7 starters from a unit that allowed 17.1 points and 362 yards per game. The top three tacklers and six of the top seven tacklers return to lead the defense. Keep in mind that 2016 was only the first year under defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. In theory, the second season should be even better if the schemes are truly cemented into the players’ heads. Overall, this unit should allow similar numbers to the 2016 squad.

As usual in the SEC West, the schedule is tough with three straight road games at LSU, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. There is a bye between the Razorbacks and Aggies, but that is still a brutal stretch when you consider that Georgia comes to town after the game versus Texas A&M. The final game is the Iron Bowl against Alabama and that comes at home, which should help the Tigers. It will be difficult for Auburn to defeat Alabama as well as win the West, but the Tigers are more than capable of doing both.

3. (Big 10) Northwestern will win at least 9 games – 2017 will mark the 12th season of Pat Fitzgerald in charge at Northwestern. In that time he has posted three seasons of nine or more wins (two of those were 10 win seasons). This year’s squad is loaded to give the Wildcats a shot at one of their big 9+ win seasons.

The offense will rely heavily on Justin Jackson and rightfully so. Jackson has 4,129 yards rushing in his career, which is already second best in Northwestern history. A 1,500 yard season would put Jackson at #2 all time in the Big 10. Also returning with Jackson are 7 other starters including quarterback Clayton Thorson (3,182 yards with 22 TDs and 9 interceptions). Thorson has come a long way since his 2015 season when he struggled at times. He will be missing his top target from last year in Austin Carr (90 catches for 1,247 yards and 12 TDs). The one to watch out for in 2017 is Jalen Brown, a former Oregon Duck.

The defense also returns 8 starters and this group did well in 2016 as they allowed 22.2 points and 404 yards per game. The front four and secondary return seven of the eight starters, which makes for a weaker linebacking group. Good thing they have a head coach in Fitzgerald who knows a thing or two about that position. In 2015 when Northwestern had 8 starters back they allowed 18.6 points and 319 yards per game. An improvement to those numbers in 2017 would make this team very dangerous.

Northwestern opens with three games they should win: Nevada (home), Duke (away), and Bowling Green (home). After a bye week, the Cats face Wisconsin (away) and Penn State (home) to start Big 10 play. The rest of the Big 10 schedule could result in wins: Maryland (away), Iowa (home), Michigan State (home), Nebraska (away), Purdue (home), Minnesota (home), and Illinois (away). Nebraska is the toughest of those games especially away from home, but 9 or 10 wins is definitely realistic.

2. (Big 10) Michigan State will miss a second straight bowl game – Between 2013 and 2015, the Spartans won the Rose Bowl and played in two Cotton Bowls, winning one. Then 2016 happened when they slumped to 3-9 winning just one game in the Big 10. The defense allowed 27.8 points per game, the most under Mark Dantonio. 

2017 sees four starters return on each side of the ball. Th offense loses quarterback Tyler O’Connor and top receiver RJ Shelton. LJ Scott does return after rushing for 994 yards and 6 TDs last year. Scott may burden a big load early in the season as new starters all over the field go through the learning curve. In 2016, the offense also had four returning starters and put up 24.1 points and 395 yards per game.

The defense has four starters back from a group that allowed 27.8 points and 365 yards per game. The biggest concern is the defensive line that allowed 159 yards rushing per game in 2016 and have just one returning starter after off the field issues saw two others dismissed. Similar numbers are expected, but with Dantonio the defense could surprise to the good side.

The schedule for the Spartans is filled with tough games. After a bye on September 16, they will face Notre Dame (home), Iowa (home), and Michigan (away) in three straight games. The end of October and beginning of November is another brutal stretch: Northwestern (away), Penn State (home), and Ohio State (away). The margin for error is small this year for Michigan State especially with the inexperience and off-season turmoil.

We will be honest, 2018 looks like it could be an exceptional season for Michigan State. Assuming that all the 2017 non-senior starters return, there would be 20 starters back in 2018 (10 on each side of the ball). That could be a team to watch next season.

1. (Big 10) The Big 10 will win the National Championship – There are three main contenders to win the Big 10: Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. And as we saw in 2016, you do not need to win your conference to make the Playoffs.

Ohio State had just 6 starters back in 2016 yet went 11-2 and made the Playoffs. Now they have 15 starters back and once again are the Big 10 favorites with all the firepower returning on offense an defense. Ohio State has three tough games in 2017: Oklahoma at in week two, Penn State at home at the end of October, and at Michigan to end the regular season. Expect the Buckeyes to be favored in all their games in 2017 barring some serious trouble.

Penn State is another contender to win the Big 10 after their awesome 2016 season. They went 11-3 while winning the Big 10 and made numerous comebacks in the second half of games throughout the season. Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley make a dangerous backfield combination that is up there with any other backfield QB/RB duo in the country. Just imagine how good the Nittany Lions might be if they decide to not spot their opponents points in the first half.

Penn State has a brutal four game stretch over a five week span: Northwestern (away), Michigan (home), Ohio State (away), and Michigan State (away). The Spartans should not pose a serious threat, but given the game is after back-to-back games against the Wolverines and Buckeyes, there is the slight chance for a let down.

The third top contender is Wisconsin, who has an incredibly friendly Big 10 schedule. They do face BYU on the road September 16 before a bye week. The Big 10 schedules opens with Northwestern at home and Nebraska on the road. In November, they welcome both Iowa and Michigan to Madison while playing Minnesota in the finale. The Badgers have a good shot of going undefeated where they will probably meet up with either Ohio State or Penn State.

There are two dark horse contenders in Michigan and Northwestern. We discussed the Wildcats two predictions above and concede that they are a very long shot to even reach the Big 10 title game. Michigan will be in year three under Jim Harbaugh, but the losses are severe. Just four starters are back on offense and only one starter returns on defense. They have a brutal schedule of Florida (in Arlington, Texas), Penn State (away), Wisconsin (away), and Ohio State (home). The Wolverines are capable of getting to the Big 10 Championship and even the Playoffs, but it does not look likely in 2017.

It it tough to project the four teams in the College Football due to the multitude of matchup possibilities. Ohio State is probably the best of the trio mentioned above and loom as the Big 10’s best chance to win the National Championship. However, do not underestimate Penn State or Wisconsin from reaching the Playoffs where anything can happen.

That concludes our 25 predictions for the 2017 season, however, we will give one bonus prediction below.

Bonus: At least 10 FCS teams will defeat FBS teams – Does it seem like FCS teams upsetting FBS teams is happening more often? If so, that is because it is happening more often. Between 2004 and 2009, FCS teams averaged 4.3 wins per year against FBS teams with a high of 9 in 2007. Since 2010, that average has more than doubled to an average of 9.6 wins per season. 2013 saw the most FCS upsets with 16 and each of the last five seasons have produced at least 8 FCS wins against the FBS.

Here is a link to all the FCS versus FBS matchups in 2017. There are 98 matchups featuring FCS against FBS teams, which means roughly 10% of the games will require an upset for this prediction to be correct. With FCS teams becoming more and more competitive, it makes sense they would defeat FBS teams more often. Let’s hope that is the case in 2017 as well.

You have reached the end of our predictions. We hope you enjoyed reading them and hope you follow along  to see how they turn out for the 2017 season. Enjoy the start of the 2017 season!

Reviewing Our 2016 College Football Predictions

Deshaun Watson and Clemson won the 2017 College Football Playoff versus Alabama. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images North America)

Reviewing Our 2016 College Football Predictions

Prior to the start of the 2016 College Football season, we made five predictions for each conference. Those can all be found here. Below we will list and then review how each prediction turned out.

FBS Independents

1. Army will beat Navy in 2016 – This was correct as Army defeated Navy 21-17. This was Army’s first win against Navy since 2001.

2. Army will reach 6 wins in 2016 – Army reached the 6 win plateau and went beyond as they finished 8-5 overall with a win in Heart of Dallas Bowl versus North Texas.

3. UMass will not top 3 wins in 2016 – Another one that proved correct. Massachusetts slumped to 2-10 in 2016, which was their first year as an Independent.

4. BYU will pull at least 3 upsets in the regular season – We missed on this one. Going by Vegas Insider’s lines, the Cougars pulled only one outright upset. BYU did cover all five games in which they were underdogs, but lost four outright.

5. Notre Dame will lose at least 3 regular season games – Perhaps we were too kind. The Irish lost 8 games and reached our magic mark of three losses by the end of September.

Final Result: 4 out of 5 predictions were correct.

Sun Belt

1. Georgia Southern’s Matt Breida will lead the Sun Belt in rushing – This was a risky prediction and it did not come close at all. Breida finished with 646 yards on the season while Appalachian State’s Jalin Moore led the conference with 1,402 yards.

2. Arkansas State or Appalachian State will win the Conference – This was correctly predicted. This required a Troy loss on the final day of the regular season. Both Arkansas State and Appalachian State tied for the title.

3. Texas State will not win more than 3 games in 2016 – We called this correctly, but early in the season it looked iffy. Texas State started the season with a 2-2 record, but lost all their Sun Belt games to drop to 2-10 in Everett Withers’ first season.

4. New Mexico State’s bowl drought will extend to 56 years – This seemed like an easy call and it was. The Aggies went 3-9 on the season though they did have some entertaining games throughout the season.

5. Idaho will make a bowl game –This was another correct prediction. Idaho started 2-3, but won 7 of their last 8 games including the bowl versus Colorado State. It is a shame Paul Petrino and Idaho will be in the FCS by 2018.

Final Result: 4 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 8 correct out of 10.

Conference USA

1. Rice will win the West Division – This pick was not even close. The Owls started 0-6 and even though they went .500 the final six games, they never really had a chance to win the division.

2. Old Dominion will make a bowl game – The Monarchs proved this one right. Old Dominion went 7-1 in C-USA and 10-3 overall. Their loss to Western Kentucky prevented them from competing for the C-USA Championship.

3. Charlotte’s offense will top 25 points per game in 2016 – This was correct, but barely as Charlotte scored 25.2 points per game. The 49ers had 6 games were they scored less than 25 points and went 4-8 overall.

4. North Texas will finish with double digit losses – This was wrong and in a big way. The Mean Green went 5-8 overall this year and made an appearance in the Heart of Dallas Bowl in Seth Littrell’s first season as coach.

5. Middle Tennessee will finish no worse than 2nd in the East – Another incorrect prediction. The Blue Raiders started the C-USA season well, but losses to Western Kentucky, UT-San Antonio, and Marshall saw them finish 3rd in the East Division.

Final Result: 2 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 10 correct out of 15.

MAC

1. Northern Illinois will make it 7 straight MAC Title Game Appearances – This never came to fruition as the Huskies lost three MAC games and did not even reach a bowl game.

2. Western Michigan will defeat at least one Big Ten opponent in 2016 – This one was correct. They defeated Northwestern in the opening game 22-21 and then blew the doors off Illinois two weeks later in 34-10 win. They had a chance for the rare Big 10 trifecta in the Cotton Bowl against Wisconsin, but lost 24-16.

3. The East will be mayhem – This is a very hard prediction to quantify. Ohio ended up as the MAC East winner at 6-2 in conference play, but Miami (OH) came back from an 0-6 start to win out and reach a bowl game. Miami finished 6-2 in the conference as well. We will call this a draw and award half a point.

4. Kent State will reach six wins – This prediction was incorrect. The Flashes lost to North Carolina A&T in week two and then bounced back the next week to defeat FCS foe Monmouth. Kent State never threatened to get to 6 wins and finished at 3-9.

5. Eastern Michigan will end their four straight years of double digit losses (and not finish last in the West) – This was correct. The Eagles got off to a flying start at 4-1 and then sealed their winning season with two wins in the final three games. They finished 7-6 overall and fourth in the MAC West.

Final Result: 2.5 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 12.5 correct out of 20.

American Athletic

1. SMU will win at least four games in 2016 – This was correct. SMU could not get on a roll in a choppy season as they went 5-7 overall. They did upset Houston at home with a resounding 38-16 win.

2. South Florida will win the East Division – This one was close, but was incorrect. The Bulls had a great 11-2 season and went 7-1 in AAC play. Their lone conference loss was to Temple (7-1 AAC), the AAC Champions, thus preventing them from winning the East.

3. Houston will win the West Division and Conference title – This one was incorrect. Houston started 5-0, but finished 4-4 and placed fourth in the AAC West.

4. Connecticut will have winning season –This one ended up as incorrect. The Huskies started 3-3, but lost their last six games to fall to 3-9. The lack of offense cost them and it also cost Bob Diaco his job.

5. The Three “T” teams (Tulsa, Tulane, and Temple) will win at least 20 games combined – This was correct due to Tulsa and Temple. Temple went 10-4 overall (won the AAC Championship), Tulsa went 10-3 overall, and Tulane came in at 4-8 overall to make it 24 wins combined.

Final Result: 2 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 14.5 correct out of 25.

Mountain West

1. Air Force will win the Commander-in-Chief Trophy and win 10 games – This prediction was correct on both accounts. The Falcons started 4-0, then lost 3 in a row, and finished the season on a 6 game winning streak. They also defeated Navy and Army.

2. San Diego State will win the West Division – An obvious call before the season, this one was correct. The Aztecs won the West Division going away and finished 11-3 as the only team in the West with a winning record.

3. Boise State will lead the MWC in points scored and Thomas Sperbeck will lead the MWC in receiving yardage – This prediction was wrong on both accounts. Boise State’s offense never reached the expected heights as they finished sixth in the conference at 33.8 points per game. Thomas Sperbeck ended up tied for second in the conference with 1,272 yards receiving behind Tanner Gentry of Wyoming (1,326 yards receiving).

4. UNLV will make a bowl game in 2016 – This was incorrect as the Rebels could never find a good flow. They finished 4-8 overall with wins against Jackson State, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Wyoming.

5. New Mexico will make their second straight bowl game in 2016 – This prediction was correct. The Lobos started 2-3 with losses to New Mexico State, Rutgers, and Boise State, but finished with 7 wins in their last 8 games. They played, and won, in the New Mexico Bowl.

Final Result: 3 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 17.5 correct out of 30.

Big 12

1. Kansas State will make a seventh straight bowl game – This was correct. The Wildcats had a sneaky good season going 9-4 overall and finished it off with a 33-28 win in the Texas Bowl over former conference foe Texas A&M.

2. Oklahoma will lose at least one game they are favored in – This prediction was correct after the first weekend of games. Oklahoma was favored by 13.5 against Houston, but lost 33-23. The Sooners finished 11-2 overall.

3. West Virginia will not win more than 7 games – This prediction was wrong. West Virginia started 6-0 to put this prediction to shame. They went on to finish 10-3 with losses to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Miami (FL) as they finished 3rd in the Big 12.

4. TCU and Baylor will win 20 games or less combined – This prediction was correct. TCU underachieved going 6-7 overall while Baylor went 7-6 with Jim Grobe at the helm.

5. Texas and Texas Tech will both make a bowl game – This prediction was doubly wrong. Neither Texas nor Texas Tech had a winning record, much less made to a bowl game. Both teams finished 5-7 overall.

Final Result: 3 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 20.5 correct out of 35.

ACC

1. Georgia Tech will get back to a bowl game – This prediction was correct. The Yellow Jackets went 9-4 overall on the season with losses to Clemson, Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, and North Carolina. Georgia Tech defeated Kentucky 33-18 in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

2. The ACC Champion will make the National Championship – This one was correct. Clemson won the ACC over Virginia Tech and then defeated Ohio State in the College Football Playoffs Semifinal 31-0. They reached the National Championship game to face Alabama for a second straight seeason and won 35-31.

3. Pittsburgh will have a double digit win season – This prediction was close, but incorrect. Pittsburgh went 8-5 with losses to Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), and Northwestern. Only the game against Miami (51-28) was decided by more than a touchdown.

4. Boston College will average at least 25 points per game on offense and give up less than 20 points per game on defense – This prediction was wrong on both accounts. In fact, if the numbers were flipped, this would have been on point. Boston College put up 20.4 points per game on offense and allowed 25 points per game on defense. They finished 7-6 overall.

5. Duke’s bowl streak will end at four – This was correct. The schedule set up against Duke finishing with 6 wins and that is how it turned out. They defeated North Carolina Central, Notre Dame, Army, and North Carolina to finish 4-8.

Final Result: 3 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 23.5 correct out of 40.

Pac-12

1. California and Oregon State will both miss a bowl game – This prediction was correct. Surprisingly, neither of these teams finished last in the Pac-12 North as that distinction went to Oregon. California went 5-7 while Oregon State finished 4-8.

2. Colorado will make a bowl game – This prediction was correct and undersold. Colorado had a great season going 10-4 overall and playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game. They unfortunately had to face some tough opponents in 2016 with losses to Michigan, USC, Washington, and Oklahoma State. Still, it was a superb season.

3. The duo of Christian McCaffrey and Royce Freeman will rush for a combined 4,000 yards – This prediction was wrong and was not even close to being right. After stellar 2015 seasons, these two seemed big campaigns again. Christian McCaffrey finished with 1,603 yards rushing while Royce Freeman had 945 yards rushing in 2016 with both getting injured during the year.

4. Washington will not win the Pac-12 – This one was way wrong. The Huskies were never really challenged in the Pac-12 North and they easily dispatched Colorado in the Pac-12 Championship Game. We probably will not make this prediction again any time soon.

5. The Pac-12 will not make the College Football Playoffs –Another one that was wrong. This prediction was predicated on the idea that Washington would not win the Pac-12. Well, the Huskies DID win the Pac-12 and were a contender for the College Football Playoff all season long.

Final Result: 2 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 25.5 correct out of 45.

Big 10

1. Indiana will play in their second consecutive bowl game – This prediction was correct. The Hoosiers needed to beat Purdue in the season finale to reach 6 wins and they did in a close 26-24 contest. Head coach Kevin Wilson resigned before the bowl game, which they lost 26-24.

2. Northwestern’s Justin Jackson will lead the conference in rushing – This prediction was correct. Justin Jackson had a very good season leading the Big 10 with 1,524 yards on the ground. He beat out guys like Saquon Barkley, Corey Clement, Rodney Smith, Devine Redding, Mike Weber, and Akrum Wadley for the conference rushing title.

3. Wisconsin will not win 10 games – This prediction was incorrect and happily so. As a Wisconsin fan and someone who attended the school, this is one prediction we are more than happy to eat crow on. The Badgers had what looked like a daunting schedule in the pre-season, but some teams were not as good. However, the Badgers still had to navigate their schedule after back-to-back losses to Michigan and Ohio State. The Badgers finished 11-3 overall with a victory in the Cotton Bowl over Western Michigan.

4. The winner of The Game will make the College Football Playoffs – This prediction was right on the money. Despite a mid-season loss to Penn State, the Buckeyes were selected for the College Football Playoffs after defeating Michigan 30-27 in overtime despite not playing in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Buckeyes were crushed 31-0 in the Playoffs versus Clemson.

5. Iowa will be pushed to the brink by North Dakota State – This prediction was perfectly called. North Dakota State took their patented blueprint to Iowa City and defeated the Hawkeyes 23-21. Iowa finished 8-5 overall on the season.

Final Result: 4 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total is 29.5 correct out of 50.

SEC

1. Every SEC West team will make a bowl game – This was close, but incorrect. 6 of the 7 teams made it to a bowl game with only Ole Miss not participating in the post-season. That is interesting because most had Ole Miss as a team contending for the top of the SEC West, not the bottom.

2. Kentucky will not reach that elusive bowl game – This prediction was wrong. Kentucky started 5-3 and had Austin Peay near the end of regular season to make it 6 wins. They did one better as they upset Louisville 41-38 on the road to reach 7-5 and the TaxSlayer Bowl. They lost that game 33-18 to Georgia Tech.

3. Vanderbilt will make a bowl game – This prediction was correct. Vanderbilt needed two late season upsets to reach six wins. They defeated both Ole Miss and Tennessee at home to reach the Independence Bowl, but were thrashed by NC State 41-17.

4. The Arkansas-Mississippi State game will determine the last place finisher in the SEC West – Another one that was close, but ultimately incorrect. Arkansas and Mississippi State played a 58-42 thriller in Starkville late in the season, but it was the Egg Bowl a week later that determined the final team in the SEC West. Ole Miss lost that day 55-20 to finish in the basement after a season of high expectations.

5. Missouri will win the SEC East – It is fitting we round this article out with the worst prediction. Before the season, we thought Missouri’s defense would carry the team, but it ended up being the offense that was key. The Tigers started 2-2 with a 26-11 loss at West Virginia and a 28-27 loss at home to Georgia. It was all downhill from there as they lost five in a row. They won 2 of their final 3 games (Vanderbilt and Arkansas) to finish 4-8 overall. Perhaps this prediction is better suited for 2018 or later.

Final Result: 1 out of 5 predictions were correct. The running total finishes at 30.5 correct out of 55 (55.5%).

Hopefully we can do better in 2017 with our predictions.

Thoughts On Wisconsin’s Win Over The Northwestern Wildcats

Jazz Peavy scored a rushing touchdown on an end around thanks to some nice moves. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America)
Jazz Peavy scored a rushing touchdown on an end around thanks to some nice moves. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America)

Thoughts On Wisconsin’s Win Over The Northwestern Wildcats

The Wisconsin Badgers went on the road this weekend and got a big victory over the Northwestern Wildcats 21-7. It was Wisconsin’s first win in Evanston since 1999. The win also keeps the Badgers alive for the Big Ten West title, which will require Nebraska losing another game in the regular season. Below are some thoughts on the Badgers win over the Wildcats.

1. Wisconsin dominated this game – The Badgers had complete command of this game in every facet, but the scoreboard. They just could not get pull away until midway through the fourth quarter. However, they were the better team throughout the entire game. The running game was strong, the defense was their usual self, and the quarterbacks while not strong, were able to get the job done. This game was expected to be physical and it was nothing short of that. The Badgers showed what many expected in the win.

The defense allowed only 5 of 18 on third down conversions for the Northwestern offense, but the key was what they did to Justin  Jackson. The Badgers held him to just 42 yards on 13 carries, which tied his season low (versus Illinois State). If not for a 28 yard run at the end of the first half, it would have been even lower.

2. Alex Hornibrook continues his ups and downs – This is expected from a freshman quarterback. After all, he is not a robot. He missed some throws like a potential touchdown to Jazz Peavy in the first quarter and some open receivers. To be fair, he made some good throws such as in the third quarter on an out route to George Rushing on a big third down as well as taking hits to complete passes. He will continue to split time with Bart Houston, but he seems to thrive when he comes back in.

3. Jazz Peavy roars back to lifeJazz Peavy was held in check the previous two games against Iowa and Nebraska. Over those two games combined he finished with 6 catches for 51 yards and only had 2 rushes for 5 yards. He easily eclipsed those totals after only a quarter and a half against Northwestern when he was at 3 catches for 54 yards and had a rushing touchdown for 46 yards on an end around (video is below). He finished with 4 catches for 73 yards while he did not record another rushing attempt. When Peavy goes, Hornibrook and the offense go as well.


4. End of the first half – What on earth was going on at the end of the first half? The Badgers gave up a touchdown drive to Northwestern, but the Wildcats did their best to help them out with a pooch kick. The Badgers had the ball at their own 40 yard line with 30 seconds left and opted to go with a run play. Paul Chryst let 15 seconds run off the clock before calling a timeout and the Badgers ended the half with two Hornibrook deep passes that were incomplete. The Badgers had a chance to stem the Northwestern momentum (the Wildcats also received the ball to start the second half), but instead they did not even get out of their own half. It was a real discombobulated finish to a half Wisconsin in which they were the superior team.

5. The rushing attack was better – The rushing game has steadily gotten better the last four weeks with an average of 204 yards rushing per game. The Badgers only averaged 161.6 yards per game over the first five games. Corey Clement went for 106 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries while Bradrick Shaw got 11 carries for 54 yards. Interestingly, Dare Ogunbowale had a very small role this week after his monster game against Nebraska a week ago. As long as the running game can put up 200+ yards a game, they will be tough to be beat (along with the defense playing at the incredibly high level they have all season).

6. Special Teams – The way this game started it was looking like kicker Andrew Endicott was going to be walking home. His 35 yard field goal attempt was horrendously wide, but he made 2 of 4 field goals on the day. His other miss was a 51 yard attempt that was just wide. He has not been great, but today he was sufficient.

Also getting recognition is Anthony Lotti and his punting duties. He was constantly pinning Northwestern deep in their own end and making the field very long. P.J. Rosowski also had a good day kicking the ball off as the Wildcats did not have a return on the day.

The Wisconsin Badgers are now 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten. Next week they take on Illinois at home in a game they will be heavily favored. Below are previous columns providing thoughts on each Wisconsin game this season.

Wisconsin versus LSU

Wisconsin versus Akron

Wisconsin versus Georgia State

Wisconsin versus Michigan State

Wisconsin versus Michigan

Wisconsin versus Ohio State

Wisconsin versus Iowa

Wisconsin versus Nebraska

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 8

Mark Helfrich and Oregon sit at 2-4 mainly due to a bad defense. Can they turn it around in the second half of the season? (Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images North America)
Mark Helfrich and Oregon sit at 2-4 mainly due to a bad defense. Can they turn it around in the second half of the season? (Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images North America)

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 8

We are closing in on week eight and there are some big games this week. Miami (FL) is at Virginia Tech, TCU is at #12 West Virginia, #6 Texas A&M travels to face #1 Alabama in the biggest game of the week, #17 Arkansas is at #21 Auburn, #2 Ohio State plays Penn State on the road, and #23 Ole Miss is at #25 LSU.

Those are big games, but we will take a look at some of the games not listed above that could have an impact on week eight and beyond. Note that these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.

1. Oregon at California (10/21 at 10:30 PM) – This game will be nationally televised, but the implications are huge. Oregon is on a four game losing streak and sits at 2-4 overall. They had a bye last week and one can only assume the defense was the focal point (Oregon has given up at least 35 points each game during their losing streak).

California has alternated between wins and losses this year to get to 3-3. Their offense has been very good this year too with Davis Webb at the helm (2,256 yards at 60.8% with 22 touchdowns and 7 interceptions), which presents a great opportunity against Oregon’s porous defense. Oregon’s defense gives up 522 yards per game including 284 yards through the air.

Oregon needs this win more than California, but the road to end the season for both teams is not easy. Oregon faces Arizona State, USC (away), Stanford, Utah (away), and Oregon State (away) after the Cal game. How many wins are there for the Ducks with this defense?

California has USC (away), Washington, Washington State (away), Stanford, and UCLA after playing Oregon. Their schedule is tough as well and a win will help both teams if they want to make a bowl game.

2. Indiana at Northwestern (10/22 at 12 PM) – On paper, Northwestern seems like the favorite given their back-to-back road wins over Iowa and Michigan State. As of this posting, the Wildcats are favored by a point and a half. Indiana is a scrappy team though and they could make things interesting.

The key in this game, and for Northwestern’s offense, is Justin Jackson. He ran for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns (all in the opener) on 83 carries through his first four games for an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Against Iowa and Michigan State, he has rushed for a combined 359 yards and 3 touchdowns on 60 carries for an average of 6 yards per rush.  In turn, he allows the passing game to flourish especially if the ball is headed towards Austin Carr. Carr has 5 touchdowns in the last two games, but he has been producing all season long (at least 5 catches and 73 yards in every game).

For Indiana, this year’s team is different. It is no longer just about out-scoring the opponent and hope the defense can make a stop or two. The defense is a cohesive unit that can consistently play well in 2016. For 2015, the defense gave up 37.6 points per game compared to 25.3 points per game through six games this year. The hiring of Tom Allen has no doubt improved the defense and they will have their hands full with Justin Jackson this week.

Both teams enter this game at 3-3 and it is clear the winner will be in a very good position to make a bowl. However, a loss can be overcome with both teams having 3 winnable games in their final five contests.

3. Akron at Ball State (10/22 at 3 PM) – This is not the biggest game of the week for the MAC. That is listed two slots below, but this is a big game for both teams in their respective division.

Akron is currently a joint-first with Ohio in the MAC East at 2-1 in conference play. They are coming off a shellacking at the hands of the top MAC team Western Michigan 41-0. It was not pretty as the offense put up 283 yards of offense and the defense gave up 585 yards. The offense did not get into Broncos’ territory until late in the first half.

Ball State got their first conference win this year over Buffalo after losses to Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. James Gilbert, who has been good this year, had a monster game with 264 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns on 34 carries. It was his fourth 100 yard rushing game this year and third in a row (at least 2 rushing touchdowns in the last three games as well). It is worth noting that Jarvion Franklin ran for 281 yards and 1 touchdown in Western Michigan’s win over Akron in week 7.

How good is Ball State? How will Akron respond to their drubbing? Those questions will be answered this week and beyond in Ball State’s case. At this point, Akron can only have one more loss prior to their game at Ohio to end the season if they want to have a chance at winning the MAC East. Ball State still has to face Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo this year, so a win may be crucial this week just to try to make a bowl game.

4. Memphis at Navy (10/22 at 3:30 PM) – This is a big AAC West Division tilt. Memphis is 2-0 in the AAC while Navy is 3-0 in conference. Plus, Navy has the win over Houston from their last game so a win here would really help the Midshipmen given their schedule to end the season.

The defense for Memphis has been solid this year giving up 19.3 points per game and 140 yards rushing per game. The latter is more pertinent against the triple option of Navy. Navy’s offense puts up 32.2 points per game and 262.4 yards rushing per game. In last year’s game, Navy put up 374 yards rushing against Memphis, but that offense included Keenan Reynolds and and Chris Swain, both of whom are no longer there.

Memphis had Paxton Lynch in 2015 and now Riley Ferguson has taken over at quarterback. Ferguson has done well throwing for 1,596 yards (65.5%) with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Memphis’ toughest opponent this year has been Ole Miss, a game in which Ferguson threw for 343 yards, but with no touchdowns and three interceptions. If he can continue to be accurate and avoid interceptions, this team has a good chance of winning.

Memphis still has to face Tulsa, SMU, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston to end the season so a win here will help and give them some confidence. Navy will play South Florida, Notre Dame, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, and Army to end the season.

5. Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan (10/22 at 3:30 PM) – Here is another MACtion game, but this one is the marquee matchup this week.

Eastern Michigan has been a surprise this year. They are 5-2 and sit one win away from their first bowl game since 1987. They defeated MAC East contender Ohio on the road last week 27-20. Brogan Roback threw for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions to lead the Eagles.

Western Michigan has been a surprise too, but on a national level. They defeated both Northwestern and Illinois on the road in their first three games. They have looked like the best team in the conference to this point and have a legitimate chance at making a big bowl if they go undefeated and win the MAC Championship. Zach Terrell has been fantastic this year throwing for 1,597 yards with 17 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions. He also has 142 yards on the ground and 5 touchdowns. Jarvion Franklin has been good the last three weeks, which coincides with Jamauri Bogan missing time due to an ankle injury. Franklin has 582 yards and 4 touchdowns on 87 carries the last three games (6.7 yards per carry).

This will be the toughest team Eastern Michigan has faced this year in MAC play (possibly all year if one wants to consider WMU better than Missouri). They will have their hands full, but could keep it interesting. A win for Western Michigan would put them in a commanding position for the MAC West title until their game against Toledo in the season finale.

6. Old Dominion at Western Kentucky (10/22 at 7 PM) – Old Dominion enters this game at 4-2 while Western Kentucky is 4-3. The Monarchs two best opponents so far this year have been Appalachian State and North Carolina State, which ODU lost. Those two games were played on the road and the combined final scores were 80-29. Their other four games have all been 2+ touchdown margin of victories.

As for Western Kentucky, they played #1 Alabama and obviously got crushed, 38-10. However, their other two losses were to Vanderbilt 31-30 in overtime and 55-52 against Louisiana Tech. They have close wins against Middle Tennessee (44-43 in 2 OT last week) and Miami (OH) 31-24.

Old Dominion runs a balanced offense (yardage is 53% passing and 47% rushing). David Washington leads the offense and while his numbers are not impressive, he is efficient. He has thrown for 1,250 yards with 12 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He also has 158 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He completes only 56.4% of his passes, but has only had 1 game with a negative TD to INT ratio (Appalachian State when he threw 1 INT and no touchdowns). The running game will be led by Jeremy Cox (420 yards and 9 touchdowns) and Ray Lawry (373 yards and 3 touchdowns).

Western Kentucky is led by former South Florida quarterback Mike White. He has thrown for 2,098 yards with 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. In two seasons at USF, he threw for 2,722 yards with 11 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. His favorite targets are Taywan Taylor (54 catches for 870 yards and 5 touchdowns) and Nicholas Norris (43 catches for 647 yards and 8 touchdowns).

If Old Dominion’s pass defense, which gives up 224 yards per game,  can stop Western Kentucky’s offense that puts up 372 yards passing per game (and 526 yards of total offense per game), they will have a chance. The more time they run off the clock, the better chance they have of winning this game.

With both teams in the thick of the C-USA East division race, this game will be important. ODU has yet to face FlU and will also play Marshall and Southern Miss. Western Kentucky will also play FIU and Marshall, but have one loss already in C-USA.

Check back next week for the week nine edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 7

Jamaal Williams had another big game against Michigan State. He and BYU face Mississippi State at home on Friday night. (Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)
Jamaal Williams had another big game against Michigan State. He and BYU face Mississippi State at home on Friday night. (Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 7

Week six has come and gone (along with nuisance of Hurricane Matthew we hope). Week seven has some big games including NC State at #3 Clemson, Kansas State at #19 Oklahoma, #20 West Virginia at Texas Tech, North Carolina at #16 Miami (FL), #12 Ole Miss at #22 Arkansas, and #2 Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin.

We will take a look at some of the games not listed above for week seven. Note, these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.

1. Mississippi State at BYU (10/14 at 10:15 PM) – The Bulldogs enter this game off a horrendous performance against Auburn at home. They were run off the field in the first half after giving up 35 points. They played better in the second half, but that is not a consolation after the first 30 minutes they played.

BYU comes in at the opposite end of the spectrum. The went into East Lansing and won 31-14. They were close with the Spartans through three quarters, but really wore them down in the final frame scoring 21 points to Michigan State’s 7. It was a familiar scene with Jamaal Williams toting the rock quite a bit in the final quarter.

In the Bulldogs’ last two losses to LSU and Auburn, they allowed 177 yards rushing and 228 yards rushing, respectively. Williams has put up four games of at least 160 yards rushing this year and BYU is 3-1 in those games. Mississippi State will need to stop Williams if they want to have a chance of winning. Even then, though, they will have to deal with Taysom Hill.

The Bulldogs will need their A+ game in this one, but will also need Nick Fitzgerald to play better. In their two wins, he has put up at least 110 yards (305 total) and 5 touchdowns against 1 interception. In their three losses, he has managed just 85 yards total on 32 carries and just 2 touchdowns against 1 interception. If the Bulldogs get Fitzgerald going, they can stay in striking distance.

BYU sits and 3-3 while Mississippi State is 2-3 so far in 2016. A win for either team will help their bowl chances, but more so for the Bulldogs.

2. Illinois at Rutgers (10/15 at 12 PM) – This game is way under the radar and has no impact on the rest of the season. So why is it on this list? Because both teams are trending in a bad direction under first year head coaches and this is the kind of game that give a team something to build on if they win. Plus, one of these teams can say they did not go winless in conference play at the end of the year.

Illinois (1-4) is on a four game losing streak and last week’s game against Purdue was there for the taking. They had a chance to defeat Purdue, but Chase McLaughlin’s 41 yard kick at the end of the game hit the right upright and Purdue won 34-31 in overtime.

Rutgers (2-4) is well known for their past two performances. They were crushed 58-0 on the road at Ohio State, but last week’s game put them on the map. They were drubbed 78-0 at home to Michigan, who basically ran the ball the final 20 minutes and still ended up with 481 yards on the ground and 9 rushing touchdowns. The duo of Chris Laviano and Zach Allen combined to go 2 for 18 for 5 yards passing for the Scarlet Knights in the passing game. Rutgers managed 34 yards rushing on 36 carries.

One of these teams has to win this game and while it may not get either one to a bowl game, at least they can build off of this game. Hopefully.

3. Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech (10/15 at 12:30 PM) – This is the battle of which Georgia Triple Option offense is better. Both teams have about 67% of their offense from the ground game while both enter on losing streaks with Georgia Southern at two and Georgia Tech at three.

Georgia Southern will have the benefit of an extra three days of preparation due to playing Arkansas State on Wednesday. The Eagles will spread the ball around to their backs. Five players have at least 200 yards and another one has over 100 yards: Matt Breida (279 yards and 1 touchdown), Wesley Fields (279 and 3 TDs), Favian Upshaw (254 and 2 TDs), Kevin Ellison (252 yards and 3 TDs), L.A. Ramsby (208 and 3 TDs), and Demarcus Godfrey (124 yards).

Georgia Tech has lost three in a row, but they have faced some tough opponents in Clemson, Miami (FL), and Pittsburgh with only Pittsburgh on the road. The ball will usually go into the hands of Dedrick Mills (82 carries for 357 yards and 7 TDs) or quarterback Justin Thomas (64 carries for 206 yards and 1 TD). Another one to watch out for is Clinton Lynch. He only has 19 carries, but has gone for 254 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He also has 6 catches for 134 yards and another touchdown. If he breaks one, it might be the difference.

This game will be old school triple option offense with a lot of running and sporadic amounts passing. Georgia Southern sits at 3-2 and while a loss here does not crush their bowl hopes, a win would give them a confidence boost going back into Sun Belt play. A win here would be bigger for Georgia Tech because their run in consists of Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Georgia. There is no margin for error with a loss here.

4. New Mexico at Air Force (10/15 at 3:30 PM) – A Mountain West battle ensues as the Lobos will travel to face Air Force. New Mexico comes off a big loss to Boise State at home where the offense racked up a ton of yards on the ground, but not much on the scoreboard. They got crushed 49-21 with two late scores flattering the scoreline.

Air Force lost their first game of the season last week to Wyoming on the road 35-26. The Falcons were forced to rely on the passing attack, which ended badly as Nate Romine went 6 of 19 for 188 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. They may be facing a poor pass defense in New Mexico, but Air Force football is a triple option first with some passing sprinkled in.

This game should feature a lot of running. Air Force only managed 149 yards on 39 carries against Wyoming, but they like to pass the ball closer to 15 times a game instead of 20. New Mexico averages 354 rushing yards per game from their version of the triple option between Teriyon Gipson (399 yards and 5 TDs on 31 carries in only 3 games), Tyrone Owens (390 yards and 2 TDs on 63 carries), Lamar Jordan (287 yards and 1 TD on 50 carries in basically 3 games), and Richard McQuarley (242 yards and 7 TDs on 47 carries). Gipson missed the game versus Boise State due to hamstring. He is expected to be back for this game and it will be worth watching to see how effective he is against Air Force.

Both teams have a loss in conference play, but Air Force has not played Boise State yet this season. New Mexico could use a win going into the back half of their schedule while Air Force could use this game to get the run game back on track (last two games have seen the offense finish with more passing yards than rushing yards).

5. Northwestern at Michigan St (10/15 at 3:30 PM) – This game will feature both teams at 2-3, which was not expected before the season. Northwestern got a big win before their bye week with a 38-31 win on the road over Iowa. The offense easily looked the best they have all year against Iowa with Justin Jackson getting 171 yards on 26 carries and Austin Carr catching 3 touchdown passes (6 catches for 73 yards total) from Clayton Thorson (164 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions).

Michigan State has not looked anything like the Spartans of the past 5 years during their three game losing streak. Against Wisconsin and BYU they were physically dominated. BYU ran wild on the Spartans in the fourth quarter while Indiana put up 437 yards of offense on them.

The loser of this game drops to 2-4, which will be very difficult to navigate the final half of the year. Northwestern will face Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois. Michigan State plays Maryland, Michigan, Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State, and Penn State. This is a big game for both teams.

6. Missouri at Florida (10/15 at 4 PM) – Missouri is 2-3 on the season alternating between losses and wins to start the campaign. They most recently lost to LSU 42-7 on the road and they were dominated in that game. Florida comes in off a win against Vanderbilt, but it was an ugly win. They also had to deal with the postponement of their contest against LSU due to Hurricane Matthew.

Florida’s defense has been very good against every team except Tennessee. They have given up a total of 20 points in their four wins and only 163.5 total yards per game in those four as well. Meanwhile, Missouri’s offense put up a lot yards prior to the LSU game and that will be an interesting matchup for them against the Florida defense. Drew Lock has thrown for 1,675 yards with 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He will find this group to be a big step up compared to some of his other opponents.

This game could help shape the SEC East. Florida has just one loss and can still win the division with some help. Missouri already has two losses in conference play and is now looking to make a bowl game. A win here would help and really put a dent in Florida’s SEC East hopes.

Check back next week for the week eight edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 3

Nick Chubb and Georgia will be facing Missouri on the road this week. Can the rushing attack explode as they did in week one against North Carolina? (Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)
Nick Chubb and Georgia will be facing Missouri on the road this week. Can the rushing attack explode as they did in week one against North Carolina? (Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 3

After a great opening week there was a lull in the big games during week two, but that gives way to some top games in the third week. #2 Florida State at #10 Louisville, #1 Alabama at #19 Ole Miss, and #3 Ohio State at #14 Oklahoma are the headliners this week. There are also other good contests like #25 Miami (FL) at Appalachian State, #22 Oregon at Nebraska, Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State, and USC at #7 Stanford.

We look for those small headliners that are worth keeping an eye on both this week and possibly down the road with their impact on the season. Let’s take a look at some of the under the radar games for week three. Note, these games are listed in order of when they will be played.

1. Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech (9/17 at 12:30 PM EST) – This game is big for both schools in regards to making a bowl game this year. Georgia Tech can improve to 3-0 with a win heading into their ACC schedule and would need just three wins in their final 9 games to reach a bowl game. As for Vanderbilt, they are 1-1 after seeing their opening week game slip away to South Carolina. They rebounded on offense to put up 47 points against Middle Tennessee with Ralph Webb running wild to the tune of 211 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 carries.

The key for both teams will be third down. For the season, the Vanderbilt offense is 8 of 27 on third down and they are facing a Georgia Tech defense that has allowed 16 of 32 on third down. It could also be a low scoring affair given the amount of carries both offenses will feature.

2. South Florida at Syracuse (9/17 at 3:30 PM EST)South Florida made an appearance on this last week with their game against Northern Illinois. They crushed the Huskies 48-17 just as they did Towson in week one, 56-20. Syracuse opened with a 33-7 win over Colgate before getting dominated 62-28 by Lamar Jackson and Louisville at home.

The Orange will not have to worry about facing a guy like Jackson this week, but they do have to contend with Quinton Flowers. Flowers threw for 350 yards with 4 touchdowns and ran for another 53 yards on the ground against NIU. South Florida also held that NIU offense to 318 total yards as well as 5 of 18 on third down. The Orange did move the ball well against Louisville, but will need to have the defense step up if they are to keep this game close and have a chance at winning.

3. Western Michigan at Illinois (9/17 at 4 PM EST) – Welcome back, Western Michigan. They were featured in this season’s opening column and did not disappoint with a 22-21 win over Northwestern. They decimated North Carolina Central in week two 70-21 to move to 2-0. Illinois started with a 52-3 win over Murray State in week one and then lost 48-23 to North Carolina in week two. They hung close with the Tar Heels for most of the game, but gave up the final 17 points in the fourth quarter.

The Broncos are actually favored in this game (by 3 points as of this writing). They will not have to worry about facing a tough defense like Northwestern in week one. However, they are facing a better offense this time around than they did in the opening week. Wes Lunt can sling the ball, but he did not look too solid against North Carolina throwing for only 127 yards and 2 touchdown on 17 of 35 passing. Like opening week, this should be a good game to watch and Western Michigan could make it 2-0 against the Big 10 this year.

4. Georgia at Missouri (9/17 at 7:30 PM EST) – Georgia has looked underwhelming this year with a 33-24 win over North Carolina in week one and then squeaking past FCS Nicholls State 26-24 last week. Missouri struggled against West Virginia in their 26-11 loss on the road, but bounced back to trounce Eastern Michigan 61-21 at home last week.

This will be the fifth meeting of these two teams since Missouri joined the SEC in 2012. Georgia is 3-1 in those games and they have beaten Missouri handily in both games at Missouri. They won 41-20 in 2012 and 34-0 in 2014. It is difficult to call any game in the SEC a trap game, but this could be it. Georgia faces Ole Miss on the road next week while Missouri faces Delaware State.

Will Georgia get the running attack going like they did against North Carolina when Nick Chubb ran for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns? How will the defense handle Missouri’s Drew Lock who happens to be the SEC’s leading passer after two weeks? This game could be pivotal in what appears to be another wide open SEC East race.

5. Duke at Northwestern (9/17 at 8 PM EST) – This is a game of what could have been. Duke lost quarterback Thomas Sirk before the season and then lost by 10 points to Wake Forest in week two as they sit at 1-1. Northwestern has been even worse. They lost to both Western Michigan and Illinois State with the offense looking particularly bad against ISU. They lost running back Justin Jackson to a “lower-body injury” in the ISU game, but he is expected to play in this game. The Northwestern offense looked bad against Illinois State and are just 9 of 28 on third down this year.

This game could be ugly especially on the offensive side of the ball. If Jackson is not able to make an impact and the Duke running game cannot get going, it could be even worse. This is a big game at this point in the season for both teams given their schedules the rest of the season.

6. FCS Teams versus FBS Teams – Getting sick of seeing this one yet? Well, it will stick around for at least this week. After four wins in the opening week, there were three more FCS victories over FBS opponents in week two. This week features a total of 12 FCS versus FBS teams and there are some games that look like possible victories for the FCS. The most likely upsets are Eastern Kentucky at Ball State, Monmouth at Kent State, and Delaware at Wake Forest. In addition, North Dakota State (winners of five straight games versus FBS opponents) face Iowa on the road. Will a team have their name added to the list below?

Check back next week for the week four edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.

Week 1

Week 2

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 1

Christian McCaffrey is in action on Friday night against Kansas State (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images North America)
Christian McCaffrey is in action on Friday night against Kansas State (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images North America)

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 1

College Football began on August 26 with Hawaii and California playing in Sydney, Australia. That game was followed up by the five time defending FCS Champions North Dakota State surviving an overtime game against Charleston Southern. The season begins in full force on Thursday, September 1 with sixteen games.

Many of the top matchups are getting most of the press and rightfully so. LSU versus Wisconsin, USC versus Alabama, Notre Dame at Texas, Ole Miss versus Florida State, Georgia versus North Carolina, Clemson at Auburn, and Oklahoma versus Houston are all tantalizing on paper. All of those games will be fun to watch, but let’s take at some of the games that may not be on the radar.

Note, these games are listed in order of when they will be played.

1. South Carolina at Vanderbilt (9/1 at 8 PM EST) – This probably does not strike as much, but it could be a game that determines if one of these schools reaches a bowl game in 2016. This will be Will Muschamp’s first game at South Carolina and he inherits just nine returning starters (four on offense and five on defense). It will be interesting to see if Vanderbilt’s offense can improve from 2015 and the impact Muschamp has on the South Carolina team.

2. Kansas State at Stanford (9/2 at 9 PM EST) – A Friday night game at the Farm featuring Heisman hopeful Christian McCaffrey against a formidable Bill Snyder coached Kansas State defense is worth watching. Heck, just a chance to see McCaffrey in action is a game worth watching. Can the K-State defense keep McCaffrey somewhat in check? How will Stanford’s new quarterback play? Can K-State keep the game close and provide some worry to the Stanford fans? There are a lot of things that will be interesting to keep track of in this one.

3. Western Michigan at Northwestern (9/3 at 12 PM EST) – Western Michigan is a team that could make some serious noise in the MAC West in 2016. A game against a team like Northwestern will be a very good measuring stick. The Broncos have offensive weapons like quarterback Zach Terrell (3,510 yards with 67% completions as well as 29 touchdowns and 9 interceptions), Jamauri Bogan (1,051 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns), Jarvion Franklin (735 yards rushing and five touchdowns), and receiver Corey Davis (90 catches for 1,436 yards and 12 touchdowns). Meanwhile, how Clayton Thorson progressed for the Northwestern offense is a big question because they cannot rely solely on Justin Jackson (1,418 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns).

4. Missouri at West Virginia (9/3 at 12 PM EST) – Missouri had one of the top defenses from last year (gave up 16.2 points and 302 yards per game) while West Virginia averaged 34 points and 480 yards per game. The contrasting styles and how each team can effectively make adjustments will be exciting to see.

5. UCLA at Texas A&M (9/3 at 3:30 PM EST) – UCLA is coming off an 8-5 season and is considered one of the favorites for the Pac-12 and Pac-12 Title. They are led by sophomore Josh Rosen (3,668 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions) and have nine starters back on defense. Kevin Sumlin may be under the microscope more than usual this year after back-to-back 8-5 seasons. Two former Sooners will be in the back for the Aggies as Trevor Knight and Keith Ford. The Aggies will also have back the top five receivers from 2015 and this could be a fun game to watch if the offenses explode.

6. BYU versus Arizona (9/3 at 10:30 PM EST) – BYU may appear on this list quite often given their schedule. Taysom Hill is back for yet another season and he goes up against an Arizona team that went 7-6 last year and returns 15 starters. This game will also be Kalani Sitake’s first game in charge of BYU after 11 years of Bronco Mendenhall. This game will be a fun one to watch between Arizona’s Anu Solomon and Hill.

7. FCS Teams versus FBS Teams – These matchups are always worth keeping an eye on because they can produce some shocking results (see Portland State winning not once, but twice in 2015 against FCS teams). It is always great to see the FCS teams holding a late lead and see if they can complete the upset.

Check back next week for under the radar games for week two.