Tag Archives: Kentucky Derby

Four Year Trends Under The Kentucky Derby Points System

Mario Gutierrez rode Nyquist to the victory in the 142nd Kentucky Derby (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Four Year Trends Under The Kentucky Derby Points System

The dust has hardly settled on Nyquist’s win in the 142nd Kentucky Derby, but that does not stop us from looking back on his race as well several other Kentucky Derbies. 2016 marked the fourth year of the Kentucky Derby Points System that helps determine the entrants into the race. Below we will take a look at the last four years (2013 through 2016) under the Points System as well as the four years prior to the Points System (2009 through 2012).

Some trends have become apparent in the last few years, but keep in mind that 4 years of data is hardly enough to start planning a strategy around betting the 2017 Kentucky Derby. And anyone who has followed horse racing knows this sport can turn in a hurry. Let’s look at the first trend of the winners in the last eight years.

Favorites Dominate Kentucky Derby Under Points System

The favorites have won each of the first four runnings of the Kentucky Derby under the points system. In the four years prior to the Points System, the favorite never won and only one to hit the board was Bodemeister in 2012 with his wonderful front running effort. The tables below show each of the last 8 years.

4 Years Since Start of Kentucky Derby Points System
Year Winner $2 Win $2 Exacta Field Size Favorite Finish
2016 Nyquist $6.60 (Fav) $30.60 20 Winner
2015 American Pharoah $7.80 (Fav) $72.60 18 Winner
2014 California Chrome $7.00 (Fav) $340.00 19 Winner
2013 Orb $12.80 (Fav) $981.60 19 Winner

 

4 Years Prior to Start of Kentucky Derby Points System
Year Winner $2 Win $2 Exacta Field Size Favorite Finish
2012 I’ll Have Another $30.60 $306.60 20 2nd
2011 Animal Kingdom $43.80 $329.80 19 8th
2010 Super Saver $18.00 $152.40 20 6th
2009 Mine That Bird $103.20 $2,074.80 19 18th

One thing to keep is mind is that the favorites are so for a reason: they are considered to be one of the best going into the race. This is quite true for each of the last four horses. Nyquist was considered the best three year old, though there were concerns whether he could handle a mile and a quarter. American Pharoah and California Chrome were considered stand outs against their peers while Orb was a tepid favorite, but still highly regarded to get the distance and had a beloved trainer in his corner.

Even the exactas have gotten chalkier since the start of the Points System. Orb’s exacta paid just short of a grand, but is has been shorter since then including a paltry $30.60 with Nyquist and Exaggerator going 1-2 this year. It is hard to see the payout getting much smaller than that unless there are two towering choices in 2017.

California Based Horses Rise To The Top Under Points System

California horse racing is known for its speed. The horses are bred to go as fast as possible as soon as possible. That does not exactly seem like a recipe for getting a mile and a quarter, but we have seen a shift of 3 year old dominance to the West Coast.

Consider this: 4 of the last 5 horses to win the Kentucky Derby have spent significant time based in California during their two and/or three year old season.

Nyquist (2016): Ran five of his eight races in California. His three races outside of the state have been in Kentucky (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and now Derby) and Florida (Florida Derby), which happens to be the site of his three biggest career wins.

American Pharoah (2015): Ran all three of his two year old races in California before being shipped between California and Arkansas for his Derby Preps. It worked well as he went on to become the first Triple Crown Winner since Affirmed in 1978.

California Chrome (2014): He ran 10 races in California prior to the Kentucky Derby.

Orb (2013): He wintered in Florida where he won three races before winning the Kentucky Derby.

I’ll Have Another (2012): He raced twice in California as a two year old before a poor race at Saratoga to end his season. At three, he stayed in California before heading to the Kentucky Derby.

Animal Kingdom (2011) and Super Saver (2010) were nomadic in their careers prior to the Derby. Mine That Bird (2009) did have a race in California as a two year old, but it was a stopover in the Breeders’ Cup after his career started in Canada. He eventually landed at Sunland Park before his unlikely Derby win.

For whatever reasons, California has churned out the Kentucky Derby prospects and they are not just winning. They are also doing well enough to hit the board the last two years. Nyquist and Exaggerator went 1-2 this year while American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund went 1-2-3 in 2015. Again, two years of data in dominating the exacta is far from a serious trend, but is still worth noting.

Position of Winners Under Points System

Another trend that has begun to emerge from the last four years is not just favorites or Californian horses winning the Kentucky Derby. It is also how they are winning the race. Each of the last three years the winning horses have been very close to the lead with none of the them being worse than third during their race. The tables below provide some insight as to where the winners were during their race.

4 Years Since Start of Kentucky Derby Points System
Year Winner 1/4 Split 1/2 Split 3/4 Split 1 Mile Split Final Time Field Size Track Condition Winning Style
2016 Nyquist 22.58 45.72 1:10.40 1:35.61 2:01.31 20 Fast Near Front / Presser
2015 American Pharoah 23.24 47.34 1:11.29 1:36.45 2:03.02 18 Fast Near Front / Presser
2014 California Chrome 23.04 47.37 1:11.80 1:37.45 2:03.66 19 Fast Near Front / Presser
2013 Orb 22.57 45.33 1:09.80 1:36.16 2:02.89 19 Sloppy (Sealed) Deep Closer

 

4 Years Prior to Start of Kentucky Derby Points System
Year Winner 1/4 Split 1/2 Split 3/4 Split 1 Mile Split Final Time Field Size Track Condition Winning Style
2012 I’ll Have Another 22.32 45.39 1:09.80 1:35.19 2:01.83 20 Fast Off Leaders / Stalking
2011 Animal Kingdom 23.24 48.63 1:13.40 1:37.49 2:02.04 19 Fast Mid Pack / Closer
2010 Super Saver 22.63 46.16 1:10.58 1:37.65 2:04.45 20 Sloppy (Sealed) Off Leaders / Stalking
2009 Mine That Bird 22.98 47.23 1:12.09 1:37.49 2:02.66 19 Sloppy (Sealed) Deep Closer

In the five previous Kentucky Derbies (2009-2013), runners close to the pace were usually nowhere to be found. As previously mentioned, Bodemeister set the pace in the 2012 Kentucky Derby won by I’ll Have Another and finished second. Shackleford tried to wire the field in 2011, but finished fourth by 3 3/4 lengths. Super Saver was close to the lead in terms of position, but was more than 5 lengths off the pace until the mile marker. Pioneerof the Nile (Sire of American Pharoah) was close throughout his Kentucky Derby run (never more than 3 lengths off the lead) while finishing second to Mine That Bird.

One of the hardest conclusions to draw is from race position. Each Kentucky Derby is completely different in how it is run. How many horses were setting the pace? Was there any pressure on the leader(s)? How was the track condition? How did the track condition affect the shape of the race? Did one of the speed horses not break well? Those are just a few of the many questions that can have different answers each year in how the race was run.

Nevertheless, the trend is there that horses near the front are doing well. However, keep in mind that the last three years, the top 3 year old entering the Derby was considered above the rest of the crop. Perhaps this is nothing more than the best horse in the race having a similar style and just being better than their peers.

Speed Under the Kentucky Derby Points System

Last year I postulated that the Kentucky Derby was slowing down in terms of time. After three years of data it appeared to be correct, but then 2016 happened. This year the Kentucky Derby went in 22.58 for the quarter and 45.72 for the opening half-mile. 2015 saw the same fractions go in 23.24 and 47.34, respectively. As stated two paragraphs above, the shape of the race is contingent on many different factors. The draw, the track condition, if a bias is present on the track, the break at the start of the race, etc. all can completely change how a race is run and won, especially in a race with as many as 20 horses.

Conclusion

What you have read above was worth pointing out, but by no means should sculpt one’s handicapping for the 2017 Kentucky Derby. The favorites have dominated the last four years and the winner has run the same race in the last three years. Does that mean it will continue? Not at all, but the trend can also still continue in 2017.

What makes the Derby so different (and difficult) is there is no race to compare it. There are no other races for 3 year olds that are run at a mile and a quarter AND allow 20 horses. The uniqueness of it allows it to be one of, if not the, most popular races each year. That uniqueness also makes it hard to find parallels as noted above.

Horse racing is a fickle sport. The highest highs can be followed by the lowest lows. The trends laid out above could easily be blown apart when a horse completely changes tactics (see Palace Malice in the 2013 Kentucky Derby). A real, concrete pattern may not emerge for another decade or more (four years is hardly a great basis for drawing a solid conclusion). A lot of things can change in the next decade which may show this four year trend as an anomaly. 

One trend that will not probably change is my picking of the Kentucky Derby Toss. I had #9 Destin this year and he finished 6th. In addition, there will probably be an article like this one looking back at five year trends instead of four year trends. Enjoy the Triple Crown!

2016 Kentucky Derby Field Set

Nyquist FL Derby

Nyquist Won the Florida Derby and is a perfect seven for seven in his career (Photo courtesy of the Miami Herald/Adam Coglianese)

2016 Kentucky Derby Field Set

The 142nd Kentucky Derby field is now set with 20 three year olds ready to face off to wear the garland of roses. There were 22 horses entered, but the #21 and #22 are also-eligibles and will only race if there are scratches prior to Friday.

The favorite is Nyquist, the undefeated horse who has won in California, Kentucky, and Florida. Nyquist is listed at 3-1 and is breaking from post 13, the same post he had when he won the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland.

The 2016 Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 7 and has a post time of 6:34 PM Eastern Time. It is carded as the 12th race at Churchill Downs and the field will be going 1 1/4 miles on the main track.

The full field is in the chart below with the program number, horse, jockey, trainer, and morning line provided.

Program Number Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1 Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder Patrick Gallagher 50-1
2 Suddenbreakingnews Luis Quinonez Donnie Von Hemel 20-1
3 Creator Ricardo Santana Jr Steve Asmussen 10-1
4 Mo Tom Corey Lanerie Tom Amoss 20-1
5 Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steve Asmussen 10-1
6 My Man Sam Irad Ortiz Jr Chad Brown 20-1
7 Oscar Nominated Julien Leparoux Mike Maker 50-1
8 Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga 30-1
9 Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 15-1
10 Whitmore Victor Espinoza Ron Moquett 20-1
11 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 8-1
12 Tom’s Ready Brian Hernandez Jr Dallas Stewart 30-1
13 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O’Neill 3-1
14 Mohaymen Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin 10-1
15 Outwork John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 15-1
16 Shagaf Joel Rosario Chad Brown 20-1
17 Mor Spirit Gary Stevens Bob Baffert 12-1
18 Majesto Emisael Jaramillo Gustavo Delgado 30-1
19 Brody’s Cause Luis Saez Dale Romans 12-1
20 Danzing Candy Mike Smith Clifford Sise Jr 15-1
21 (AE) Laoban Cornelio Velazquez Eric Guillot 50-1
22 (AE) Cherry Wine Robby Albarado Dale Romans 30-1

The Kentucky Derby card looks fantastic with a plenty of full fields and a total of 14 races to be run on the day. First post on Saturday is at 10:30 AM Eastern Time. The overnight for the card can be found here.

The Kentucky Oaks will be run about 24 hours earlier and the entries for that race can be found here.

Unanswered Questions From The 2015 Kentucky Derby

American Pharoah (#18 forefront furthest left) defeats Firing Line and Dortmund in the 2015 Kentucky Derby (Elsa/Getty Images North America)
American Pharoah (#18 forefront furthest left) defeats Firing Line and Dortmund in the 2015 Kentucky Derby (Elsa/Getty Images North America)

Unanswered Questions From The 2015 Kentucky Derby

The 2015 Kentucky Derby was an exciting race that saw American Pharoah defeat Firing Line by one length. There were even some lessons learned that could be applied in the future.

While the dust settles and the Preakness contenders are considered, there are still some questions that need to be answered even if it will not happen for many months (or possibly years).

Below are unanswered questions from the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

1. Were the Top Four Finishers that much Better than the Rest?

The top four finishers in the Kentucky Derby were American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund, and Frosted. Those four were separated by 3 1/4 lengths while the rest were at least another 3 1/4 lengths behind.

It was an easy pace for the top three as they went around the track basically as the top three throughout the running of the Kentucky Derby. Frosted was the only one of the top four horses who had to close late and he barely missed third by a shortening head.

But were they really that much better than the rest of the field? Perhaps they are just head and shoulders above the rest of the horses in the Kentucky Derby, but that is probably not the case.

We will see over the next few months if the top four really were better than every other horse.

2. How Good is this Crop as a Whole?

Coming into the race, we had a pretty good idea about Dortmund and American Pharoah, as well as several other horses such as Materiality, Carpe Diem, Upstart, and Frosted.

It turned out that American Pharoah and Dortmund were better than nearly everyone else in the Kentucky Derby.

The caveat here is that we will not be able to answer this question for many months because these horses are still going to face fellow three year olds for the next few months. If we want to compare crops, we will not be able to do so for a few years when most of these horses will no longer be competing.

Many have said this is one of the more talented and deep three year old crops in the last decade and Saturday’s Kentucky Derby results may just prove how good they are if the top four continue to dominate. The real question then becomes how the fringe horses, those who are considered good, but not yet at the same level as the top four, do later this year.

It will be an intriguing journey to watch, that is for sure and there will be plenty of opportunities in the fall for the three year olds to match up against older horses.

3. Is American Pharoah a Legitimate Threat to Win the Triple Crown?

In the immediate aftermath of the Kentucky Derby (literally the first 10 or 15 minutes after the conclusion of the race), many opinions are thrown around about whether or not a horse can go on and win the elusive Triple Crown.

Well, that is only going to intensify with the advent of social media to get opinions out there within mere second of the conclusion and there are usually only two camps; one that is adamant he will win the Triple Crown and another that is adamant he will not win the Triple Crown.

This author falls in the latter camp that does not think he will win the Triple Crown. Of course, that is hardly an inclination of whether or not he will.

First, he must win the Preakness before even having a shot at winning the Triple Crown, but he is quite likely to win the Preakness shortening up a half furlong.

Secondly, he had a dream trip in the Kentucky Derby just off of Dortmund and Firing Line, but he did not have that huge burst of speed at the top of the stretch to pull away from his foes. Then again, maybe he was being saved by Victor Espinoza.

Third, the Belmont is called the Test of Champions for a reason. It is the third race in five weeks and it will be American Pharoah’s fourth race in eight weeks. There is a reason 13 horses have tried since 1978 and failed to win the Triple Crown. The grueling mile and a half journey will not be kind to him.

Again, none of this is a guarantee American Pharoah will not win the Triple Crown, but history is against him.

4. What do we do with the horses that finished well?

Given the slow pace of the Kentucky Derby, it is hardly a shock that few horses were able to close in the final quarter of a mile. On Saturday, there were only three horses that were really identified as being able to make up ground in the stretch.

Below is an image (courtesy of Blood-Horse) of the horses turning for home to provide an idea of where each horse was.

2015 Derby Final Turn

The three horses we will focus on are #3 Materiality (near the top of the photo) #14 Keen Ice (to the left of Materiality) and #15 Frosted (middle of the photo to the left).

The most impressive of the three horses mentioned was Materiality, who came from way back in the field as seen in the photo. He did well to go from nearly last to sixth in the final quarter of a mile and he ran the final two furlongs in :25.61, according to the Daily Racing Form. None of that even mentions the poor start he had.

Frosted was the only horse to be shown during the live running of the race to have closed well. He just missed third place from Dortmund, but he was closing even prior to the final quarter of a mile. Between the six furlong and one mile calls, Frosted went from 15th to 7th and ran that quarter of a mile in :23.97.

He slowed down in the stretch, but still did well to make up the ground he did into such a slow pace. His final quarter was timed in :25.98.

The only other horse to make up ground was Keen Ice. Coming into the Kentucky Derby, most knew he would make one run and needed some pace to have a chance to hit the board. That proved to be the case.

He was immediately brought to the fence at the start of the race and continued to race near the back of the field throughout. At the top of the stretch he had five horses beaten and then closed to to finish seventh, losing by 8 3/4 lengths.

The obvious thinking here is that these horses will be prime candidates at Belmont going a mile and a half in the Belmont Stakes.

Just last year, Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve (the fourth and second place finishers in the Kentucky Derby respectively), were considered possibilities to win. The former finished in a dead heat for fourth and the latter was eighth.

In 2013, the second and third place finishers from the Derby, Golden Soul and Revolutionary, were the deep closers who hit the board in Kentucky. They finished ninth and fifth respectively in the Belmont Stakes.

In 2012, Dullahan closed to finish third in the Derby, but failed to do so at Belmont. He finished seventh as the 5/2 favorite that day.

Ice Box in 2010 was expected to do well in the Belmont Stakes. He ran fast closing second in the Derby, but failed at the 9/5 favorite in the Belmont by finishing ninth.

A lot of people think back to a deep closer winning the Belmont in Jazil (2006). That was nearly a decade ago. The problem with deep closers is two-fold. First, the pace of the race needs to be somewhat fast for a mile and a half. Second, they need to be able to get a mile and a half.

Deep closers can win the Belmont, they just need a lot of things to break their way in order to do it.

5. Is the Kentucky Derby Points System Working?

This is a tricky question because everyone has a different idea of how it should work. 2015 marks the third year of the Kentucky Derby points system. Coincidentally, it also marks the third straight year that a favorite won the Kentucky Derby. Make of that what you will.

It is probably not a mistake that the fractions have slowed down dramatically since the inception of the points system. 2013 saw an opening quarter go in 22.57 and the opening half mile in 45.33. In 2014, it was 23.04 and 47.37 while 2015 was 23.24 and 47.34.

The reason for this is simple. There is no more cheap speed in the Kentucky Derby. In 2012, the last year without a points system, a horse named Trinniberg entered the Kentucky Derby. His prep racing coming into the Derby was the Grade 3 Bay Shore Stakes at 7 furlongs on the main track. He ended 2012 by winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

There can still be unexpected speed in the race. Take 2013, for example, when Palace Malice shocked nearly everyone when he went straight to the lead under Mike Smith and tried to go gate-to-wire though he tired on the far turn.

It is clear that the Kentucky Derby points system is keeping sprinters out of the Kentucky Derby and that is not necessarily a bad thing. However, it has led to slower fractions and favorites winning the last three years. It is up to you to decide if that means the system is working.

Perhaps, and this is simply conjecture, is that more horses will be bred to go the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. It is still possible to have speed going 10 furlongs, though stamina will be needed to allow a horse to last the distance.

The Kentucky Derby points system will be fun to keep an eye on for the future and how it affects those who enter in Derby prep races. We may continue to see favorites or we may start to see a parade of long shots.

What We Learned From The 2015 Kentucky Derby

American Pharoah beat Firing Line by a length in the 2015 Kentucky Derby. What lies ahead for the 2 year old champion? (David J. Phillip / AP Photo)
American Pharoah beat Firing Line by a length in the 2015 Kentucky Derby. What lies ahead for the 2 year old champion? (David J. Phillip / AP Photo)

What We Learned From The 2015 Kentucky Derby

We are approximately one day removed from the 2015 Kentucky Derby and American Pharoah‘s one length victory, but there are still some lessons that we learned. There are also some questions that remain unanswered.

Below is what we learned from the 141st Kentucky Derby.

1. Pace Makes the Race

It seems so simple, but it was clearly true for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Dortmund led Firing Line and Pharoah through some dawdling fractions for the Derby. His opening quarter was in 23.24 and opening half mile went in 47.34.

For horses of that caliber, that is a cake-walk and makes them very difficult to defeat. The first quarter of a mile in 23.24 was the third slowest since 2000.

Now, it is clear why so few horses were able to make up ground. The leading trio set an easy pace and were able to stride home without much of a chance of fading back to the rest of the field.

2. Todd Pletcher Continues To Struggle in the Derby

This probably is not news to most avid followers of horse racing. After his three horses failed to win on Saturday, trainer Todd Pletcher now stands at 1 for 46 in the Kentucky Derby. His lone win was Super Saver in 2010.

What is amazing is that few trainers, if any, get more highly regarded two year olds than he does. Yet, he has a sub par record of leading those two year olds to Kentucky Derby success. He has had some good horses in the past, but this was regarded as part of his best crop of three year olds.

To be fair, Pletcher has not had the best luck when it comes to the Derby. In 2011, he had highly regarded Uncle Mo only to see that horse scratch prior to the Derby. Just a year earlier in 2010, Pletcher had Eskendereya scratch from the race and he probably would have been favored.

It will be difficult to back any Pletcher trained horse in the Kentucky Derby for a while, at least from this perspective.

3. Foreign Horses Have Yet To Make a Serious Impact

Despite all the hype regarding Mubtaahij’s chances in this year’s Kentucky Derby (full disclosure: this author had him as the top selection. Ouch.), he only managed to finish eighth.

If we go back to 2009 when Regal Ransom tried the UAE Derby to Kentucky Derby route, we will see that a serious trend has developed.

In 2009, Regal Ransom won the UAE Derby and then finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby. In 2011, Master of Hounds finished second in the UAE Derby, then went on to finish a respectable fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

In 2012, Daddy Long Legs won the UAE Derby and then finished last (20th) in the Kentucky Derby when he had to be eased. The 2013 UAE Derby winner Lines Of Battle finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby and last year Toast of New York was not pointed towards the Kentucky Derby.

However, Toast of New York did run well at Del Mar on polytrack finishing second in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. He then ran second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic on dirt to end the year.

So what does all of this mean?

That foreign horses run decent races, but are not a serious threat to win the Kentucky Derby at this time. This could be due to the large amount of travel they have to do from Dubai (or wherever they ship from) to the United States. That can take a lot out of a horse.

Another reason could be the breeding. Most foreign bred horses are simply not bred to run on dirt. Yes, some do well over the main track (see Toast of New York or Giant’s Causeway), but by and large, most are not suited for it. It is the same way with American turf horses going overseas. They are usually trounced on turf in France, Great Britain, Dubai, or Hong Kong because they are not as royally bred to win on turf (and at longer distances).

That does not mean that it cannot change in the future. It very well could, but not for the foreseeable future.

4. The Win Odds Do Not Reflect Real Chances

This is a nice way of saying some people do not know the way odds work. The best examples that can be provided from the 2015 Kentucky Derby are in the form of Ocho Ocho Ocho and Mr. Z.

Ocho Ocho Ocho went off at odds of 26.10-1, which equates to a $2 win payoff of $54.20. That means that Ocho Ocho Ocho had roughly a 4% chance of winning, based on the odds. However, most people would agree that he had a far worse chance of winning the Kentucky Derby, meaning his odds were not in line with the expected payoff.

The other, and best, example is that of Mr. Z. While we can debate whether he should have been in the Kentucky Derby, his off odds of 36.60-1 did not provide fair value. Unless a person thought he had a 3% chance of winning (or better), then those odds were a steal. However, looking at his form coming into the Kentucky Derby, he had a sliver of a chance in this race, thus making his win odds disproportionately negative for those who bet him.

Seeing disproportionate win odds is nothing new, however. Call it the “Mine That Bird” effect. When Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby in 2009 at odds of 50.60-1, he shocked many with the victory (including this author).

What we saw in the subsequent years were ridiculous odds that were far too low. In 2010, the Kentucky Derby saw only two horses at odds of 30-1 or higher. In 2011, no horse went off at odds higher than 40-1.

There was a bit more realism in the wagering for 2012 when two horses went off at odds of 55-1 or higher, but 2013 was back to no horses under 40-1 on the tote board. Even last year saw no horse go off at odds of 50-1 or higher.

In 2015, we saw a horse go off at nearly 70-1 odds (Frammento went off at 69.50-1).

There are two reasons for this “Mine That Bird” effect. The first is that people want to be on a long shot, any long shot regardless of the odds. If a horse is 30-1, people want to be able to say “I picked the 30-1 winner of the Kentucky Derby” and it does not matter if that horse should have been 50-1.

The other reason is that there has been a parade of long shots winning prior before 2013. I’ll Have Another won at 15-1 in 2012, Animal Kingdom won at 20-1 in 2011, Super Saver won at 8-1 in 2010, and Mine That Bird won at 50-1 in 2009.

Of course, the favorites have won the last 3 years, which may produce more realistic odds in the future.

5. Luck Will Always Be Needed To Win the Kentucky Derby

This sounds intuitive, and it is, but this is worth repeating. Luck is a big part of winning the Kentucky Derby. A bad step here or there and you will have to take your horse out of the race.

For example, we saw Stanford, El Kabeir, and International Star all scratch prior to the race. The latter two were due to foot issues while the former was made to point to a different race. Had Stanford stayed in, perhaps the pace would have been quicker and allowed closers a better chance. We will never know.

Another reason why luck is a part of it is in the draw for the race. Todd Pletcher had bad luck when his two best horses drew side-by-side at two (Carpe Diem) and three (Materiality) in the gate. It is widely accepted that drawing to the inside is at a disadvantage due to the amount of horses that come over to the rail from the outside going into the first turn. The draw could have affected the pace of the race as well. Then again, maybe it would not have mattered at all.

No matter how you look at it, luck is and always will be part of the Kentucky Derby equation.

This is what we learned from the 2015 Kentucky Derby, but what questions still linger after the running of the 141st Kentucky Derby? Be sure to check back to find out.

American Pharoah Proves Best In Kentucky Derby 141

Victor Espinoza guides American Pharoah to a one length victory in the 2015 Kentucky Derby (Peter Casey / USA TODAY Sports)
Victor Espinoza guides American Pharoah to a one length victory in the 2015 Kentucky Derby (Peter Casey / USA TODAY Sports)

American Pharoah Proves Best In Kentucky Derby 141

It was billed as a race that was trainer Bob Baffert’s to lose, but he did no such thing. American Pharoah was too much for Firing Line to hold off in the stretch as Baffert’s other entry, Dortmund, held on for third.

The race began well for the eventual top three finishers. Dortmund broke well and went straight to the lead while Gary Stevens was right next to him on Firing Line. Back in third by a length was American Pharoah who was being kept out in the clear by Victor Espinoza.

Bolo, Carpe Diem, and Danzig Moon all started well and were the next three horses in line. Mr. Z was seventh, Ocho Ocho Ocho was eighth, Upstart was ninth, and Tencendur was tenth, but only by about 4 1/2 lengths.

Itsaknockout was eleventh early, Mubtaahij was twelfth, Materiality was thirteen, Frosted was fourteenth, and War Story was fifteenth. The trailing trio were Frammento, Keen Ice, and Far Right with all of them about 14 lengths off the lead after a quarter of a mile.

The top three did not change as they went down the backstretch. Dortmund continued to lead and Firing Line continued to hang right on his flank. Meanwhile, American Pharoah continued to sit in the perfect spot just behind those two.

As they left the far turn and headed into the stretch, American Pharoah came around the leading duo to put in his bid to win the Kentucky Derby. He lead by a head at the stretch call and would slowly pull away from Firing Line to win by a length. It was another two lengths back to Dortmund in third, who barely held on for third over a fast closing Frosted.

The remaining order of finish was Danzig Moon in fifth, Materiality in sixth, Keen Ice in seventh, Mubtaahij in eighth, Itsaknockout ninth, Carpe Diem tenth, Frammento eleventh, Bolo twelfth, Mr. Z thirteenth, Ocho Ocho Ocho fourteenth, Far Right fifteenth, War Story sixteenth, Tencendur seventeenth, and Upstart last of eighteen.

El Kabeir, International Star, and Stanford all scratched leading up to the race. Tale of Verve did not draw into the race with his scratch time early on Friday morning. The entire results chart can be found here via Equibase.

Final running time for the one mile and one quarter race was 2:03.02.

This race, however, was all about the top three. It was trainer Bob Baffert’s fourth Kentucky Derby win after saddling Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), and War Emblem (2002).

For jockey Victor Espinoza, it was his third Kentucky Derby win. He was aboard War Emblem in 2002 for Baffert and also won the 2014 Kentucky Derby aboard California Chrome.

American Pharoah went off as the 2.90-1 favorite and paid $7.80 to win, $5.80 to place, and $4.20 to show. He is the third consecutive favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. American Pharoah is owned by Ahmed Zayat, who has now his first Derby.

The second jewel of the Triple Crown is in two weeks at Pimlico racecourse in Baltimore, Maryland. There will probably be a mix of Derby horses and newcomers to challenge American Pharoah. The Preakness is at a mile and three sixteenths and will be held on Saturday, May 16.

2015 Kentucky Derby Preview

2015 Kentucky Derby Preview

The 141st Kentucky Derby is almost here. A field of 20 is expected to run and it is a loaded race. The field of three year olds will be going a mile and a quarter (10 furlongs) over the main track.

Post time is scheduled for 6:34 PM Eastern Time and the Derby is carded as the eleventh of thirteen races on the afternoon. The purse for the race is $2,000,000.

#11 Stanford has scratched out of the race allowing in #21 Frammento to draw in. Free past performances can be found here.

Below is a table that summarizes the entries for the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

Post PositionHorseJockeyTrainerMorning Line Odds
1Ocho Ocho OchoElvis TrujilloJames Cassidy50-1
2Carpe DiemJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher8-1
3MaterialityJavier CastellanoTodd Pletcher12-1
4TencendurManuel FrancoGeorge Weaver30-1
5Danzig MoonJulien LeparouxMark Casse30-1
6MubtaahijChristophe SoumillonMike de Kock20-1
7El KabeirCalvin BorelJohn Terranova30-1
8DortmundMartin GarciaBob Baffert3-1
9BoloRafael BejaranoCarla Gaines30-1
10Firing LineGary StevensSimon Callaghan12-1
11 (SCRATCHED)StanfordFlorent GerouxTodd PletcherSCRATCHED
12International StarMiguel MenaMike Maker20-1
13ItsaknockoutLuis SaezTodd Pletcher30-1
14Keen IceKent DesormeauxDale Romans50-1
15FrostedJoel RosarioKiaran McLaughlin15-1
16War StoryJoe TalamoTom Amoss50-1
17Mr. ZRamon VazquezD. Wayne Lukas50-1
18American PharoahVictor EspinozaBob Baffert5-2
19UpstartJose OrtizRick Violette15-1
20Far RightMike SmithRon Moquett30-1
21FrammentoCorey NakataniNick Zito50-1
22 (Also-eligible)Tale Of VerveBrian Hernandez Jr.Dallas Stewart50-1

 

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho – He had the misfortune of drawing the rail here. He won the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot at two, but his rider for that race, Mike Smith, saw fit to jump over to Far Right afterwards. He is a cut below these horses and will need a lot to go his way. Pass on his chances in this race.

2. Carpe Diem – He is still listed as one of the morning line favorites for this race despite the poor draw. He has been solid in his career with four wins and a second in five career races. He was second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two year old after he broke slowly compared to the others. That may be the case again here and it is hard to endorse him from the win angle. He could still hit the board, but he will need to work out a trip from this spot.

3. Materiality – Another Todd Pletcher horse that got a poor draw though not nearly as bad as his stablemate directly to his inside. He is three for three in his career and has been very good in every start. He ran a slow mile and one eighth at Gulfstream in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, but received a huge Beyer Speed Figure of 110. The worry here is his lack of foundation with just three career starts and also the crush of horses that will come over on top of him. He will need to be used hard to avoid the crush of horses and that may compromise his chances. It is tough to decide what to do with him…

4. Tencendur – It took him a few races to get going after breaking his maiden on January 15, but he came up with a solid second place finish in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. He did have a good trip and that race and he reunites with his maiden breaking rider Manuel Franco. The question about him is can he repeat that Wood Memorial performance and will he be good enough? The feeling here is probably not.

5. Danzig Moon – He broke his maiden in his third start and his three year old debut on February 7. He then ran fourth in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby behind Carpe Diem and then ran second to him again in the Grade 1 Blue Grass by three lengths. There is some buzz about this horse having a chance, but he will need to run a bit faster to get in the picture.

6. Mubtaahij – He is what most would consider the wild card. He has not raced in the US and we know little about the depth behind him in his victories. He won the Group 2 UAE Derby by 8 lengths in a visually impressive manner and his connections are bullish about his chances. He has two wins at a mile and a sixteenth so the distance should not be a problem. How good is he? We will see on Saturday and is must use on top.

#7 El Kabeir has SCRATCHED from the race due to foot issues.

7. El Kabeir – He has been consistent this year hitting the board in all four starts. He showed more tactical speed in his first two starts in 2015 before coming from off the pace in his latter two. He did not have much of an excuse in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial when he finished third and he will need to step up here. He will need to closer as well if he wants a chance of getting a piece.

8. Dortmund – He is an undefeated six for six and he has been impressive in each race. He has won easily and he has also won in dogfights (twice over Firing Line). He can rate off the speed or take them gate-to-wire while the former is more conducive in a race like the Kentucky Derby. There is lots to like about him and he is a must use on top.

9. Bolo – He began his career on turf finishing fifth in before back-to-back wins on the turf. He was switcher over to dirt for the Grade 2 San Felipe where he ran a solid third behind Dortmund and Firing Line. His Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby produced another third place effort, but he will need to step up big time to have a chance in this race.

10. Firing Line – This colt has done little wrong in his career. He has run second to Dortmund twice with both losses by a head, which enhances his chances here. His last race was an impressive gate to wire score by 14 lengths in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. He is a speedy horse, but can be rated and has Gary Stevens in the irons. There is a lot to like here.

11. Stanford – Scratched. He will point to the Peter Pan at Belmont or the Preakness in two weeks.

#12 International Star has SCRATCHED from the Derby due to a quarter crack.

12. International Star – He spent the winter at the Fair Grounds and he made the most of that by winning all three of the stakes races there. He will be flying late here, which will probably mean traffic problems in the stretch, but he can certainly close. He is also by a Kentucky Derby winner in Fusaichi Pegasus. He is a must include underneath with his ability to close.

13. Itsaknockout – He had a great start to his career by going two for two and then was put up to first in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth to make it three for three. His last race was atrocious when he was fourth by 21 lengths in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. It is hard to endorse him off an effort like that.

14. Keen Ice – He has been sub par in his three year old season. He started with a fifth place finish in the Grade 2 Holy Bull before closing to finish third in the Grade 2 Risen Star behind International Star and War Story. He then ran fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby with a wide trip, but was never a threat to the winner. He does a win over the main track at Churchill and will be closing late, but will it be too late?

15. Frosted – He started the winter down in Florida with a second place and then ran a surprisingly bad fourth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth despite holding the lead into the stretch. He supposedly had breathing problems in that race, which led to a throat operation. He came back in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial to win from off the pace. It has been a while since the Wood Memorial produced a Kentucky Derby winner (2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus), but he has the look of a contender.

16. War Story – He has not done a lot wrong in his 5 career starts and he has never missed the board. He raced down in Louisiana where he ran up against International Star finishing second twice and third once. He is taking the blinkers off for this race and he owns a win over the main track at Churchill. This is a typical horse that this author gets sucked into betting, but not this year.

17. Mr. Z – He is the most experienced runner by far with 12 races (next closest is 9), but his form has been declining since the start of the year. He was demolished in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby by 20 lengths and then ran third behind the morning line favorite American Pharoah in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. It is very difficult to endorse his chances here.

18. American Pharoah – The morning favorite has been spectacular in his two starts in 2015. He cruised against his foes in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in the slop by 6 1/4 lengths and then demolished the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby field by 8 lengths. He has worked well, he has been brilliant, and he should not have too much in the way of traffic trouble out here. However, can he win when a horse looks him in the eye? Will he get too close to a hot pace? Can you take a short price in a 20 horse field? He is a must use on top in multi-race wagers.

19. Upstart – He is another consistent horse in here. After running a solid third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he won the Grade 2 Holy Bull and was disqualified (controversially) from the win spot in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. He was unable to run by Materiality last time out. He should have a good spot in the Kentucky Derby, but if he could not run by Materiality at 9 furlongs last time, can he do it against better at 10 furlongs? Tough decision on him in this spot.

20. Far Right – He has run at Arkansas for the Derby prep season. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes with a nice closing kick near the rail and then did the same in the Grade 3 Southwest. He was no match for American Pharoah last time out and he still retains the services of Mike Smith, who has done will with closers in the past (Zenyatta and Giacomo in the 2004 Derby). If there is a complete meltdown in the pace, he could win, but at big odds he is a must include underneath in the exotics.

21. Frammento – The lucky recipient of Stanford’s scratch, he will breaking from post 20. He did little in the Grade 2 Holy Bull when he finished sixth by 18 lengths, but had a strong rally in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth when he came from more than 15 lengths out of it to finish third by 4 1/2 lengths. He tried the same thing in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, but he could only muster a fourth place finish. He may have a chance to close in this race, but he will need to be quicker if he is to blow up the tote board.

22. Tale Of Verve (Also-eligible) – SCRATCHED.

Selections

This race really can come down to a few horses though there are plenty that have a chance to shake up the exotics. The top choice here is #6 Mubtaahij who will come from off the pace here. #8 Dortmund is hard to discredit here and has a big chance as does #18 American Pharoah. A few others to consider in the multi-race wagers are #10 Firing Line, #15 Frosted, and #19 Upstart.

Top selection – #6 Mubtaahij

2nd selection – #8 Dortmund

3rd selection – #15 Frosted

4th selection – #18 American Pharoah

Plays will be:

Win, place, show on #6 Mubtaahij

$1 exacta 6, 8, 15, 18 with 3-5-6-8-10-12-14-15-18-19-20 ($40)

Good luck to everyone betting and be sure to check back on Saturday evening for a recap of the 2015 Kentucky Derby!

Kentucky Derby News For April 30, 2015

Kentucky Derby News For April 30, 2015

Far and away the biggest news of Thursday was the declaration of #11 Stanford out of the Kentucky Derby. His removal will allow #21 Frammento to get into the Derby. It also means that post positions 12 through 21 will shift by 1 stall to the inside.

“We entered the horse in the race to see what sort of post he might draw,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “We were on the fence as to whether or not to run him, but we thought we’d take a look. But after seeing the draw and talking to the owners, we decided it might be best to take him out and consider other options.

“We’re thinking now that either the Peter Pan (at Belmont Park on May 9) or the Preakness (at Pimlico on May 16) might be better spots for him. The horse is fine. We’ll train him tomorrow morning and we’ll probably work him the morning of the Derby before we ship him to New York.

“We didn’t wait to scratch him. We did it now to ensure that the also-eligibles would have their chance to run. We think him coming out now is for the best of all.”

The only horse to work for the Derby was Mubtaahij who blew out three furlongs in :37.40. He ran the opening furlong in :13.10 and galloped out four furlongs in :52.20.

American Pharoah and Dortmund both galloped a mile and a half. Bolo galloped a mile and three eighths and was expected to have a schooling session in the paddock later on Thursday afternoon.

Carpe Diem galloped once around the track, Materiality galloped a mile and three eighths, and Itsaknockout galloped a mile and a half. Stanford galloped a mile and three eighths as well before his defection from the Derby.

Danzig Moon galloped a mile and a half while El Kabeir galloped a mile and three eighths. Far Right jogged a mile and then galloped a mile on Thursday morning.

Firing Line galloped a mile and a half and then schooled in the paddock. Newly entered Frammento galloped a mile and a half.

Trainer Nick Zito had this to say about Frammento’s inclusion into the Derby, “I got the call from the racing office this afternoon. We are all excited. We made it. Everybody is happy. He has been training great. I know we will have to break from the 20, but that is a lot better than Post Zero!”

Frosted schooled in the paddock, schooled in the starting gate, and then galloped a mile and three eighths.

International Star had a simple day of walking the shedrow. Keen Ice galloped two miles and Mr. Z had a simple gallop.

Ocho Ocho Ocho walked the shedrow after his three furlong blowout on Wednesday.

Tale of Verve is currently the next horse into the Kentucky Derby if another scratch occurs. He galloped a mile and three eighths on Thursday.

Tencendur went out for a gallop in the morning and was expected to school in the paddock later in the day.

Upstart galloped a mile and three eighths while War Story jogged a mile and then galloped a mile.

The updated entries for the 141st Kentucky Derby can be seen in the table below.

Post PositionHorseJockeyTrainerMorning Line Odds
1Ocho Ocho OchoElvis TrujilloJames Cassidy50-1
2Carpe DiemJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher8-1
3MaterialityJavier CastellanoTodd Pletcher12-1
4TencendurManuel FrancoGeorge Weaver30-1
5Danzig MoonJulien LeparouxMark Casse30-1
6MubtaahijChristophe SoumillonMike de Kock20-1
7El KabeirCalvin BorelJohn Terranova30-1
8DortmundMartin GarciaBob Baffert3-1
9BoloRafael BejaranoCarla Gaines30-1
10Firing LineGary StevensSimon Callaghan12-1
11 (SCRATCHED)StanfordFlorent GerouxTodd PletcherSCRATCHED
12International StarMiguel MenaMike Maker20-1
13ItsaknockoutLuis SaezTodd Pletcher30-1
14Keen IceKent DesormeauxDale Romans50-1
15FrostedJoel RosarioKiaran McLaughlin15-1
16War StoryJoe TalamoTom Amoss50-1
17Mr. ZRamon VazquezD. Wayne Lukas50-1
18American PharoahVictor EspinozaBob Baffert5-2
19UpstartJose OrtizRick Violette15-1
20Far RightMike SmithRon Moquett30-1
21FrammentoCorey NakataniNick Zito50-1
22 (Also-eligible)Tale Of VerveBrian Hernandez Jr.Dallas Stewart50-1

Kentucky Oaks News

Angela Renee galloped a mile and a quarter and stablemate Eskenformoney galloped a mile.

Birdatthewire had an easy gallop on Thursday morning and fellow contender Condo Commando was anxious to go faster in her gallop.

Forever Unbridled galloped a mile and three eighths. The duo of I’m A Chatterbox and Lovely Maria both jogged five furlongs and then galloped five furlongs. Include Betty looked good in the morning.

Money’soncharlotte jogged a mile early in the morning and Oceanwave galloped a mile and a half.

Puca galloped a mile and three eighths, Sarah Sis galloped a mile and a half, and Shook Up galloped over the main track.

Stellar Wind, the morning line favorite, galloped over the track as soon as the opened.

A full Kentucky Oaks preview can be found here.