Tag Archives: Nyquist

2016 Preakness and Black Eyed Susan Fields

Nyquist is looking to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown at Pimlico (Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America)
Nyquist is looking to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown at Pimlico (Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America)

2016 Preakness and Black Eyed Susan Fields

The 2016 Preakness Stakes and Black Eyed Susan fields are now known. Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, is looking to make it 9 for 9 in his career with a win in the Preakness. Meanwhile, the three year old fillies will be in action on Friday with the Black Eyed Susan.

2016 Preakness Stakes

The 2016 Preakness Stakes will have a field of 11 males going 1 3/16 miles on the main track for the Grade 1 event. The forecast in Baltimore, Maryland is calling for rain on Saturday which will make for a sloppy going. The field of 11 is running for purse of $1.5 million with the top two finishers in the Kentucky Derby returning in Nyquist and Exaggerator with that duo heavily favored over the other nine entrants.

Also entered is the highly regarded new shooter Stradivari, who won his latest race at Keeneland by nearly 15 lengths though he did only beat five horses and there are questions about the quality of that field.

Post time for the Preakness Stakes is scheduled for 6:45 PM Eastern time and is listed as the 13th race on a 14 race card. Free past performances can be found here. The full field can be found in the table below along with the jockey, trainer, and morning line odds listed.

Program NumberHorseJockeyTrainerMorning Line Odds
1Cherry WineCorey LanerieDale Romans20-1
2Uncle LinoFernando Hernandez PerezGary Sherlock20-1
3NyquistMario GutierrezDoug O'Neill3-5
4Awesome SpeedJevian ToledoAlan Goldberg30-1
5ExaggeratorKent DesormeauxKeith Desormeaux3-1
6LaniYutaka TakeMikio Matsunaga30-1
7CollectedJavier CastellanoBob Baffert10-1
8LaobanFlorent GerouxEric Guillot30-1
9Abiding StarJ.D. AcostaEdward Allard30-1
10FellowshipJose LezcanoMark Casse30-1
11StradivariJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher8-1

2016 Black Eyed Susan Stakes

The Black Eyed Susan Stakes is a full field of 14 fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the main track for a purse of $250,000 in the Grade 2 race. Unlike the Preakness, the forecast for Friday does not include rain. The Kentucky Oaks runner up, Land Over Sea, returns as does the fourth place finisher in that race Go Maggie Go. No other fillies that ran in the Kentucky Oaks are entered in this race.

The 2016 Black Eyed Susan stakes is scheduled for 4:50 PM Eastern time as the 11th race on a 14 race card. Free past performances can be found here. The full field is listed in the table below.

Program NumberHorseJockeyTrainerMorning Line Odds
1A P MajesticVictor CarrascoMichael Tombetta30-1
2Dothraki QueenJulien LeparouxKen McPeek15-1
3Land Over SeaMario GutierrezDoug O'Neill2-1
4Ma Can Do ItBrian Hernandez Jr.Dale Romans30-1
5Go Maggie GoLuis SaezDale Romans5-2
6She's A WarriorGary StevensPeter Eurton6-1
7DowndraftAngel CruzJames Lawrence II30-1
8Double EntendreScott SpiethPeter R. Walder30-1
9Midnight On OconeeGabriel SaezLarry Jones15-1
10Kinsley KissesJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher6-1
11In The Navy NowTrevor McCarthyMichael Trombetta30-1
12Flora DoraJunior AlvaradoMarialice Coffey30-1
13CcedFlorent GerouxSteven Asmussen15-1
14Mom's On StrikeJoseph Rocco Jr.Joe Sharp15-1

Four Year Trends Under The Kentucky Derby Points System

Mario Gutierrez rode Nyquist to the victory in the 142nd Kentucky Derby (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Four Year Trends Under The Kentucky Derby Points System

The dust has hardly settled on Nyquist’s win in the 142nd Kentucky Derby, but that does not stop us from looking back on his race as well several other Kentucky Derbies. 2016 marked the fourth year of the Kentucky Derby Points System that helps determine the entrants into the race. Below we will take a look at the last four years (2013 through 2016) under the Points System as well as the four years prior to the Points System (2009 through 2012).

Some trends have become apparent in the last few years, but keep in mind that 4 years of data is hardly enough to start planning a strategy around betting the 2017 Kentucky Derby. And anyone who has followed horse racing knows this sport can turn in a hurry. Let’s look at the first trend of the winners in the last eight years.

Favorites Dominate Kentucky Derby Under Points System

The favorites have won each of the first four runnings of the Kentucky Derby under the points system. In the four years prior to the Points System, the favorite never won and only one to hit the board was Bodemeister in 2012 with his wonderful front running effort. The tables below show each of the last 8 years.

4 Years Since Start of Kentucky Derby Points System
Year Winner $2 Win $2 Exacta Field Size Favorite Finish
2016 Nyquist $6.60 (Fav) $30.60 20 Winner
2015 American Pharoah $7.80 (Fav) $72.60 18 Winner
2014 California Chrome $7.00 (Fav) $340.00 19 Winner
2013 Orb $12.80 (Fav) $981.60 19 Winner

 

4 Years Prior to Start of Kentucky Derby Points System
Year Winner $2 Win $2 Exacta Field Size Favorite Finish
2012 I’ll Have Another $30.60 $306.60 20 2nd
2011 Animal Kingdom $43.80 $329.80 19 8th
2010 Super Saver $18.00 $152.40 20 6th
2009 Mine That Bird $103.20 $2,074.80 19 18th

One thing to keep is mind is that the favorites are so for a reason: they are considered to be one of the best going into the race. This is quite true for each of the last four horses. Nyquist was considered the best three year old, though there were concerns whether he could handle a mile and a quarter. American Pharoah and California Chrome were considered stand outs against their peers while Orb was a tepid favorite, but still highly regarded to get the distance and had a beloved trainer in his corner.

Even the exactas have gotten chalkier since the start of the Points System. Orb’s exacta paid just short of a grand, but is has been shorter since then including a paltry $30.60 with Nyquist and Exaggerator going 1-2 this year. It is hard to see the payout getting much smaller than that unless there are two towering choices in 2017.

California Based Horses Rise To The Top Under Points System

California horse racing is known for its speed. The horses are bred to go as fast as possible as soon as possible. That does not exactly seem like a recipe for getting a mile and a quarter, but we have seen a shift of 3 year old dominance to the West Coast.

Consider this: 4 of the last 5 horses to win the Kentucky Derby have spent significant time based in California during their two and/or three year old season.

Nyquist (2016): Ran five of his eight races in California. His three races outside of the state have been in Kentucky (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and now Derby) and Florida (Florida Derby), which happens to be the site of his three biggest career wins.

American Pharoah (2015): Ran all three of his two year old races in California before being shipped between California and Arkansas for his Derby Preps. It worked well as he went on to become the first Triple Crown Winner since Affirmed in 1978.

California Chrome (2014): He ran 10 races in California prior to the Kentucky Derby.

Orb (2013): He wintered in Florida where he won three races before winning the Kentucky Derby.

I’ll Have Another (2012): He raced twice in California as a two year old before a poor race at Saratoga to end his season. At three, he stayed in California before heading to the Kentucky Derby.

Animal Kingdom (2011) and Super Saver (2010) were nomadic in their careers prior to the Derby. Mine That Bird (2009) did have a race in California as a two year old, but it was a stopover in the Breeders’ Cup after his career started in Canada. He eventually landed at Sunland Park before his unlikely Derby win.

For whatever reasons, California has churned out the Kentucky Derby prospects and they are not just winning. They are also doing well enough to hit the board the last two years. Nyquist and Exaggerator went 1-2 this year while American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund went 1-2-3 in 2015. Again, two years of data in dominating the exacta is far from a serious trend, but is still worth noting.

Position of Winners Under Points System

Another trend that has begun to emerge from the last four years is not just favorites or Californian horses winning the Kentucky Derby. It is also how they are winning the race. Each of the last three years the winning horses have been very close to the lead with none of the them being worse than third during their race. The tables below provide some insight as to where the winners were during their race.

4 Years Since Start of Kentucky Derby Points System
Year Winner 1/4 Split 1/2 Split 3/4 Split 1 Mile Split Final Time Field Size Track Condition Winning Style
2016 Nyquist 22.58 45.72 1:10.40 1:35.61 2:01.31 20 Fast Near Front / Presser
2015 American Pharoah 23.24 47.34 1:11.29 1:36.45 2:03.02 18 Fast Near Front / Presser
2014 California Chrome 23.04 47.37 1:11.80 1:37.45 2:03.66 19 Fast Near Front / Presser
2013 Orb 22.57 45.33 1:09.80 1:36.16 2:02.89 19 Sloppy (Sealed) Deep Closer

 

4 Years Prior to Start of Kentucky Derby Points System
Year Winner 1/4 Split 1/2 Split 3/4 Split 1 Mile Split Final Time Field Size Track Condition Winning Style
2012 I’ll Have Another 22.32 45.39 1:09.80 1:35.19 2:01.83 20 Fast Off Leaders / Stalking
2011 Animal Kingdom 23.24 48.63 1:13.40 1:37.49 2:02.04 19 Fast Mid Pack / Closer
2010 Super Saver 22.63 46.16 1:10.58 1:37.65 2:04.45 20 Sloppy (Sealed) Off Leaders / Stalking
2009 Mine That Bird 22.98 47.23 1:12.09 1:37.49 2:02.66 19 Sloppy (Sealed) Deep Closer

In the five previous Kentucky Derbies (2009-2013), runners close to the pace were usually nowhere to be found. As previously mentioned, Bodemeister set the pace in the 2012 Kentucky Derby won by I’ll Have Another and finished second. Shackleford tried to wire the field in 2011, but finished fourth by 3 3/4 lengths. Super Saver was close to the lead in terms of position, but was more than 5 lengths off the pace until the mile marker. Pioneerof the Nile (Sire of American Pharoah) was close throughout his Kentucky Derby run (never more than 3 lengths off the lead) while finishing second to Mine That Bird.

One of the hardest conclusions to draw is from race position. Each Kentucky Derby is completely different in how it is run. How many horses were setting the pace? Was there any pressure on the leader(s)? How was the track condition? How did the track condition affect the shape of the race? Did one of the speed horses not break well? Those are just a few of the many questions that can have different answers each year in how the race was run.

Nevertheless, the trend is there that horses near the front are doing well. However, keep in mind that the last three years, the top 3 year old entering the Derby was considered above the rest of the crop. Perhaps this is nothing more than the best horse in the race having a similar style and just being better than their peers.

Speed Under the Kentucky Derby Points System

Last year I postulated that the Kentucky Derby was slowing down in terms of time. After three years of data it appeared to be correct, but then 2016 happened. This year the Kentucky Derby went in 22.58 for the quarter and 45.72 for the opening half-mile. 2015 saw the same fractions go in 23.24 and 47.34, respectively. As stated two paragraphs above, the shape of the race is contingent on many different factors. The draw, the track condition, if a bias is present on the track, the break at the start of the race, etc. all can completely change how a race is run and won, especially in a race with as many as 20 horses.

Conclusion

What you have read above was worth pointing out, but by no means should sculpt one’s handicapping for the 2017 Kentucky Derby. The favorites have dominated the last four years and the winner has run the same race in the last three years. Does that mean it will continue? Not at all, but the trend can also still continue in 2017.

What makes the Derby so different (and difficult) is there is no race to compare it. There are no other races for 3 year olds that are run at a mile and a quarter AND allow 20 horses. The uniqueness of it allows it to be one of, if not the, most popular races each year. That uniqueness also makes it hard to find parallels as noted above.

Horse racing is a fickle sport. The highest highs can be followed by the lowest lows. The trends laid out above could easily be blown apart when a horse completely changes tactics (see Palace Malice in the 2013 Kentucky Derby). A real, concrete pattern may not emerge for another decade or more (four years is hardly a great basis for drawing a solid conclusion). A lot of things can change in the next decade which may show this four year trend as an anomaly. 

One trend that will not probably change is my picking of the Kentucky Derby Toss. I had #9 Destin this year and he finished 6th. In addition, there will probably be an article like this one looking back at five year trends instead of four year trends. Enjoy the Triple Crown!

2016 Kentucky Derby Field Set

Nyquist FL Derby

Nyquist Won the Florida Derby and is a perfect seven for seven in his career (Photo courtesy of the Miami Herald/Adam Coglianese)

2016 Kentucky Derby Field Set

The 142nd Kentucky Derby field is now set with 20 three year olds ready to face off to wear the garland of roses. There were 22 horses entered, but the #21 and #22 are also-eligibles and will only race if there are scratches prior to Friday.

The favorite is Nyquist, the undefeated horse who has won in California, Kentucky, and Florida. Nyquist is listed at 3-1 and is breaking from post 13, the same post he had when he won the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland.

The 2016 Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 7 and has a post time of 6:34 PM Eastern Time. It is carded as the 12th race at Churchill Downs and the field will be going 1 1/4 miles on the main track.

The full field is in the chart below with the program number, horse, jockey, trainer, and morning line provided.

Program Number Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1 Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder Patrick Gallagher 50-1
2 Suddenbreakingnews Luis Quinonez Donnie Von Hemel 20-1
3 Creator Ricardo Santana Jr Steve Asmussen 10-1
4 Mo Tom Corey Lanerie Tom Amoss 20-1
5 Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steve Asmussen 10-1
6 My Man Sam Irad Ortiz Jr Chad Brown 20-1
7 Oscar Nominated Julien Leparoux Mike Maker 50-1
8 Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga 30-1
9 Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 15-1
10 Whitmore Victor Espinoza Ron Moquett 20-1
11 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 8-1
12 Tom’s Ready Brian Hernandez Jr Dallas Stewart 30-1
13 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O’Neill 3-1
14 Mohaymen Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin 10-1
15 Outwork John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 15-1
16 Shagaf Joel Rosario Chad Brown 20-1
17 Mor Spirit Gary Stevens Bob Baffert 12-1
18 Majesto Emisael Jaramillo Gustavo Delgado 30-1
19 Brody’s Cause Luis Saez Dale Romans 12-1
20 Danzing Candy Mike Smith Clifford Sise Jr 15-1
21 (AE) Laoban Cornelio Velazquez Eric Guillot 50-1
22 (AE) Cherry Wine Robby Albarado Dale Romans 30-1

The Kentucky Derby card looks fantastic with a plenty of full fields and a total of 14 races to be run on the day. First post on Saturday is at 10:30 AM Eastern Time. The overnight for the card can be found here.

The Kentucky Oaks will be run about 24 hours earlier and the entries for that race can be found here.

Nyquist Survives In FrontRunner

Nyquist Survives In FrontRunner

Nyquist had to survive a run from Swipe in the stretch, but also had to survive him after the Grade 1 FrontRunner in the form of an inquiry. He was successful in both, as he won his fourth straight race to being his career and also made it back-to-back Grade 1 victories.

Go Long went to the lead from the rail, but he was trailed closely by Nyquist and Mt Veeder. Blameitonthelaw was also close in fourth while further back was Swipe, Hollywood Don, Rare Candy, and On Fire was in last by 10 lengths.

Go Long continued to lead on the backstretch with Nyquist and Mt Veeder close in tow, but Blameitonthelaw and Swipe also started to get closer. Behind them were Hollywood Don and Rare Candy while On Fire continued to be well at the back of the field.

Nyquist went to the lead on the far turn along with Mt Veeder, as Go Long was clearly done. Swipe started to move up as well and took over the rail position entering the stretch. Nyquist was able to hold off Swipe, who really had no excuse for not passing the winner. Those two were well clear of Hollywood Don in third by 5 3/4 lengths.

The rest of the field in order of finish was Rare Candy, Blameitonthelaw, Mt Veeder, Go Long, and On Fire. The stewards inquired about the stretch run between Nyquist and Swipe, but determined there was nothing affecting the order of finish. A full chart can be found here via Equibase.

Nyquist is a two year colt by Uncle Mo out of the Forestry mare Seeking Gabrielle. He was ridden Mario Gutierrez and trained by Doug O’Neill. He ran the 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.89 and paid $3.00 to win, $2.40 to place, and $2.10 to show.

Nyquist received 10 points towards the Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard for his victory. Swipe received four points, Hollywood Don received 2 points, and Rare Candy earned 1 point.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues next weekend with three races. Two will be run on Saturday and one will take place on Sunday.

2015 FrontRunner Stakes Preview

2015 FrontRunner Stakes Preview

The Road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby makes its second stop on Saturday, September 26 at Santa Anita. The Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes will be front and center for the 2 year old males.

The FrontRunner Stakes will be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main dirt track with a purse of $300,000. The winner will receive 10 points towards the Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard while second, third, and fourth will receive 4 points, 2 points, and 1 point, respectively.

Post time is scheduled for 5:30 PM Eastern Time and the race is carded as the fifth race of a 11 races. Free past performances can be found here by going to Saturday, September 26 and race 5. The entires have been listed in the table below.

Post PositionHorseJockeyTrainerMorning Line Odds
1Go LongFernando PerezKeith Desormeaux20-1
2On FireGary StevensSimon Callaghan12-1
3BlameitonthelawTyler BazeJohn Sadler5-1
4NyquistMario GutierrezDoug O'Neill6-5
5Hollywood DonBrice BlancPeter Miller4-1
6Rare CandyJoseph TalamoDavid Hofmans15-1
7SwipeKent DesormeauxKeith Desormeaux5-1
8Mt VeederMartin GarciaBob Baffert6-1

1. Go Long – He started his career from the dreaded rail spot in his debut and had a decent effort. He showed speed and tired to finish fourth by 4 3/4 lengths. He went to the lead again in his second start and had plenty of company, but was able to pull away near the wire for a 3/4 length victory. In his last start, he went long, but on the grass at one mile in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. It was a dull effort where he sat well of the pace before passing tiring horses and finished sixth. The return to dirt will help, but he has to step up in a big way to contend in this spot.

2. On Fire – In his debut going 6 furlongs, he went to contend for the lead shortly after the break, but was no match for the top two. He did, however, hang on for third and lost by 5 1/4 lengths. He was given more distance in his second race going a mile. He had a wide trip for most of the race and prompted the pace three wide on the backstretch and far turn. He took the lead in the stretch, but had to hold on for the win by a half-length. The connections are appealing, but he too will have to run better in this spot to contend for the win honors.

3. Blameitonthelaw – He began his career at Del Mar going 5.5 furlongs where he got a wonderful trip behind the leaders. He was able to pull away in that one to win by 4 1/4 lengths before taking on Grade 1 competition in the Del Mar Futurity. In that race, he had a similar trip behind the leaders while wide. However, he was no match for the to two and he finished third by eight. Both of those horses he lost to return here (Nyquist and Swipe). He will have to get better in this spot, which he could with is pedigree and the blinkers going on. He has a good chance of hitting the board.

4. Nyquist – We arrive at the favorite for this race, a colt who has done little wrong. He won his debut in a game effort by a head before waiting for graded stakes competition at Del Mar. His second race was in the Grade 2 Best Pal where he improved dramatically with a 5 1/4 length win while pressing the pace. His latest race was the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity where he battled for the lead and then had a nice bid entering the stretch to win by 3 3/4 lengths. He has not raced at two turns, but being by Uncle Mo, it should not be an issue. He is the deserving favorite and is the one to beat.

5. Hollywood Don – He began his career going a mile on the turf, but had a slow start and then was wide for most of the running of the race. He made no impact on the race late, as he finished seventh by 4 1/4 lengths. He came back in his second start to go gate-to-wire in an impressive race where he set fast fractions early on and was tracked all the way around the turf course. His last race was the Del Mar Juvenile Turf at one mile where he employed a new winning tactic. He sat over four lengths off the lead in the first two calls, but made his move on the far turn. He went on to win by 1 1/2 lengths for his second victory in a row. He has not raced on dirt and clearly has an affinity for turf. He has a running style that will help, but he will need to be more competitive to have a chance to win though he could hit the board.

6. Rare Candy – He started his career in New York with a five furlong turf dash at Belmont. He took a while to get going, but closed determinedly to finish only three quarters of a length back in second. He was then shipped to California where he was sent a mile on the turf in another maiden race. He went gate-to-wire that day in a game performance where he won by 2 1/4 lengths after setting comfortable fractions. He then took on stakes competition in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, but was outrun early. He made a solid rally in the lane and just missed third place. He has had some really good works on the Santa Anita main track, but the question is can he be good enough?

7. Swipe – He is the most experienced horse in this race with five starts. His first start was in May at 4.5 furlongs where he broke poorly, but rallied strongly to finish second by 2 1/4 lengths. His second start was in the Tremont, but he could not rally again and finished third by 4 1/4 lengths. He broke his maiden in his third start in the Summer Juvenile Championship with a driving finish to win by a head. His next two starts were at Del Mar where he finished second both times to the favorite, Nyquist. He is out of Birdstone so the two turns is not an issue. He is a top candidate to round out the exacta.

8. Mt Veeder – He debuted at Del Mar going 5.5 furlongs where he dueled on the lead before pulling away to win by 2 1/4 lengths. He stepped up into stakes competition where he went gate-to-wire and won by 4 3/4 lengths. He has not raced beyond six furlongs, but he is by Ghostzapper so two turns should not be a big issue. He is probably going to try and wire the field again and has a solid chance here.

Selections

#4 Nyquist is the clear favorite here and is decisively the one to beat. He should be able to rate off the speed, which makes him incredibly dangerous, but he will be a short price. #8 Mt Veeder will be going to the lead and could be good enough to make this a very good race. #7 Swipe has been consistent in his career never missing the board, but has not beat Nyquist in the previous two races. #3 Blameitonthelaw is going both long and getting blinkers on, which could improve his chances while #5 Hollywood Don could take a liking to dirt though he will probably have short odds.

Top selection – #4 Nyquist

2nd selection – #8 Mt Veeder

3rd selection – #7 Swipe

4th selection – #3 Blameitonthelaw

A recap of the Grade 1 FrontRunner will be posted on Saturday so be sure to come back and check it out.