All posts by Matthew Dixon

2019 FCS Versus Lower Division Football games

Kennesaw State begins their season against Point University as they look to defend the Big South crown. The Owls were ranked #14 by Athlon Sports and #22 by Hero Sports in the preseason polls. (Photo courtesy of Kennesaw State Athletics)

2019 FCS Versus Lower Division Football Games

With the beginning of 2019 season closing in, we take a look at the games between different divisions. In this article, we will provide a listing of all the 2019 FCS versus lower division football games. The lower divisions consisting of Division II, Division III, NAIA, NCCAA, etc. while the games will be broken down by week. The same breakdown was provided for the FCS versus FBS matchups as well.

All times listed below are Eastern Standard Time.

Weekly Breakdown

WeekDatesGamesNon-FCS Wins
18/29 – 9/180
29/5 – 9/7246
39/14111
49/2161
59/2862
610/520
710/1211
810/191
910/261
1011/20
1111/91
1211/162
1311/232

Week 1 (8 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
8/296 PMUnion CollegeMorehead State7-44
8/297 PMPikevilleMurray State20-59
8/298 PMBethel (TN)Lamar16-65
8/316 PMPoint U.Kennesaw State0-59
8/316 PMVirginia LynchburgMerrimack14-45
8/316 PMElizabeth City StateHampton7-65
8/319 PMSouthern OregonSacramento State19-77
9/15 PMMorehouse CollegeAlabama A&M30-35

Week 2 (24 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
9/58:35 PMWestern ColoradoIdaho State13-38
9/71 PMKentucky StateRobert Morris13-7
9/71:30 PMMars HillVMI21-63
9/74 PMWalshDuquesne3-44
9/74 PMLaneSouth Car. State0-34
9/74 PMLindenwoodE.Washington31-59
9/75 PMSimon FraserPortland State7-70
9/76 PMShawCampbell14-38
9/76 PMIndiana WesleyanButler27-30 (OT)
9/76 PMVirginia LynchburgDavidson7-45
9/76 PMVirginia StateNorfolk State21-44
9/76 PMVirginia UnionHampton36-17
9/76 PMEast StroudsburgWagner24-14
9/76 PMLouisiana CollegeStetson13-58
9/76 PMTuskegeeAlabama State31-38
9/77 PMMississippi CollegeAlcorn State7-45
9/77 PMTarleton StateStephen F. Austin37-26
9/77 PMTruman StateDrake10-7
9/77 PMArizona ChristianAbilene Christian14-66
9/77 PMTexas WesleyanHouston Baptist13-58
9/77 PMMidwestern StateN’Western State33-7
9/77 PMOkla. Panhandle St.SHSU0-77
9/77:30 PMShorterEast Tenn. State10-48
9/79 PMCentral WashingtonIdaho31-41

Week 3 (11 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
9/1412 PMCatholic UniversityGeorgetown0-69
9/143:30 PMNorth GreenvilleWestern Carolina17-20
9/144 PMKentucky ChristianMorehead State34-73
9/144 PMLincoln (PA)Delaware State12-58
9/146 PMFort Valley StateFlorida A&M20-57
9/146 PMTaylorButler17-14
9/147 PMEdward WatersSouthern0-61
9/147 PMW. Virginia WesleyanDavidson0-41
9/147 PMWestern New MexicoNorthern Arizona21-55
9/147 PMVirginia-WiseTennessee Tech14-31
9/147 PMLangstonArk.-Pine Bluff15-53

Week 4 (6 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
9/211 PMMayville StateMerrimack7-76
9/212 PMW. Virginia StateSoutheast Missouri St.10-56
9/214 PMElizabeth City St.North Car. Central7-45
9/215 PMEastern OregonPortland State9-59
9/216 PMW. New EnglandStetson28-59
9/218 PMValparaisoTruman State7-38

Week 5 (6 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
9/281 PMAve MariaJacksonville28-42
9/281 PMNC WesleyanStetson21-55
9/282 PMCharleston (WV)Valparaiso19-13
9/283 PMKentucky StateJackson State33-25
9/285:30 PMCentral State (OH)Alabama A&M20-63
9/286 PMReinhardtKennesaw State7-31

Week 6 (2 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
10/53 PMVirginia LynchburgMississippi Valley St.23-31
10/54 PMLaneArk.-Pine Bluff38-45

Week 7 (1 Game)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
10/123 PMMissouri S&TTexas Southern23-20

Week 8 (1 Game)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
10/193 PMVirginia LynchburgPrairie View

Week 9 (1 Game)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
10/262 PMVirginia LynchburgHampton

Week 10 (No Games)

Week 11 (1 Game)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
11/95 PMVirginia LynchburgSouthern

Week 12 (2 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
11/161 PMFranklin PierceMerrimack
11/163 PMEdward WatersPrairie View

Week 13 (2 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
11/231 PMPoint UniversityFurman
11/231 PMSt. AndrewsPresbyterian

Those are the 2019 FCS versus lower division football games as of this writing. Any updates to dates or times will be provided as soon as they are known. Changes and corrections are welcome!

2019 FBS Versus FCS Games

Army is facing two FCS opponents in 2019 just as they did in 2018, 2016, 2015, and 2014. Will they fall into the FCS over FBS upset trap this year? (Photo courtesy of Army’s Athletic Department)

2019 FBS Versus FCS Games

The 2019 college football season starts in four weeks and the first few weeks present what are typically tune up games for the larger programs in Divison I. Below is a list of all 114 of the 2019 FBS versus FCS games by week.

Weekly Breakdown

WeekDatesGamesFCS Wins
18/29 – 8/31401
29/6 – 9/7281
39/14201
49/2190
59/2840
610/500
710/1210
810/191
910/2600
1011/21
1111/900
1211/164
1311/236

Notes

While it is not uncommon to see FCS teams play multiple FBS opponents during the same season, it is far more uncommon for FBS teams to play two or more FCS teams due to bowl eligibility concerns. Only one of the two wins over an FCS opponent will count towards bowl eligibility. Effectively, 7 wins are needed for FBS teams who play two FCS teams (although this may not always be the case due to 5 win teams and bowl game scenarios).

This season, five FBS teams (Army, East Carolina, Florida, Liberty, and Virginia Tech) will play two FCS teams. Army, Florida, and Liberty all played two FCS opponents in 2018 as well. 27 FCS teams will play two FBS opponents during 2019. Below are the five FBS teams facing two FCS opponents this year.

Army – Morgan State (9/21), VMI (11/16)

East Carolina – Gardner-Webb (9/7), William & Mary (9/21)

Florida – UT Martin (9/7), Towson (9/28)

Liberty – Hampton (9/21), Maine (10/19)

Virginia Tech – Furman (9/14), Rhode Island (10/12)

FCS Upsets

There has been an average of approximately 9 FCS over FBS wins per season since 2010. 2013 marked the high point as 16 FCS teams defeated FBS opponents. Below is a chart showing the number of FCS wins as well as those wins as a percentage of FBS versus FCS games since 2010.

Below are the FCS versus FBS games by week. All times listed below are Eastern.

Week 1 (40 Games)

DateTime AwayHomeScore
8/297 PMWagnerConnecticut21-24
8/297 PMAlbanyCentral Michigan21-38
8/297 PMMorgan StateBowling Green3-46
8/297 PMRobert MorrisBuffalo10-38
8/297:30 PMGardner-WebbCharlotte28-49
8/297:30 PMC. ArkansasW. Kentucky35-28
8/297:30 PMFlorida A&MCentral Florida0-62
8/298 PMAlabama StateUAB19-24
8/299 PMS Dakota StateMinnesota21-28
8/2910 PMN. ColoradoSan Jose State18-35
8/3112 PMHowardMaryland0-79
8/3112 PMNorthern Iowa Iowa State26-29 (3 OT)
8/3112 PMIndiana StateKansas17-24
8/312 PMJames MadisonWest Virginia13-20
8/312 PMRhode IslandOhio20-41
8/313 PME WashingtonWashington14-47
8/313 PMBucknellTemple12-56
8/313:30 PMHoly CrossNavy7-45
8/313:30 PMIdahoPenn State7-79
8/313:30 PMEast Tenn. StateApp. State7-42
8/313:30 PMColgateAir Force7-48
8/314 PMPortland StateArkansas13-20
8/314 PMMontana StateTexas Tech10-45
8/316 PMIncarnate WordUT-San Antonio7-35
8/316 PMCampbellTroy14-43
8/316 PMSam Houston StateNew Mexico31-39
8/316:30 PMUC DavisCalifornia13-27
8/316:30 PMVMIMarshall17-56
8/317 PMNorfolk StateOld Dominion21-24
8/317 PMAlcorn StateSouthern Miss.10-38
8/317 PMNichollsKansas State14-49
8/317 PMStephen F. AustinBaylor17-56
8/317 PMIllinois StateNorthern Illinois10-24
8/317 PMMonmouthW. Michigan13-48
8/317:30 PMAbil. ChristianNorth Texas31-51
8/318 PMHouston BaptistUTEP34-36
8/318 PMArk.-Pine BluffTCU7-39
8/318 PMGramblingUL Monroe9-31
8/319 PMWeber StateSan Diego State0-6
8/3110 PMSouthern UtahUNLV23-56

Week 2 (28 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
9/68 PMWilliam & MaryVirginia17-52
9/610 PMSacramento StateArizona State7-19
9/712 PMSouthernMemphis24-55
9/712 PMKennesaw StateKent State23-26 (1 OT)
9/712 PMCharleston South.South Carolina10-72
9/712:30 PMWestern CarolinaN Car. State0-41
9/72 PMFordhamBall State29-57
9/72:30 PMTennessee TechMiami (OH)17-48
9/73:30 PMGramblingLouisiana Tech14-20
9/73:30 PMRichmondBoston College13-45
9/73:30 PMEastern IllinoisIndiana0-52
9/73:30 PMSouthern IllinoisMassachusetts45-20
9/74 PMMurray StateGeorgia17-63
9/74 PMWestern IllinoisColorado State13-38
9/75 PMNorthern ColoradoWash. State17-59
9/76 PMN Carolina A&TDuke13-45
9/76 PMMaineGeo. Southern18-26
9/76 PMGardner-WebbEast Carolina9-48
9/77 PMFurmanGeorgia State42-48
9/77 PMJackson StateSouth Alabama14-37
9/77 PMTennessee StateMid. Tennessee26-45
9/77 PMEastern KentuckyLouisville0-42
9/77 PMSouth DakotaOklahoma14-70
9/77 PMMcNeeseOklahoma State14-56
9/77:30 PMUT-MartinFlorida0-45
9/77:30 PMStony BrookUtah State7-62
9/78 PMPrairie ViewHouston17-37
9/710:45 PMNorthern ArizonaArizona41-65

Week 3 (20 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
9/1412 PMChattanoogaTennessee0-45
9/1412 PMFurmanVirginia Tech17-24
9/1412:30 PMThe CitadelGeorgia Tech27-24 (1 OT)
9/142 PMNorfolk StateCoastal Carolina7-46
9/144 PMSE LouisianaOle Miss29-40
9/144 PMBethune-CookmanMiami (FL)0-63
9/144:15 PMIdaho StateUtah0-31
9/144:15 PMCal PolyOregon State7-45
9/145 PMIdahoWyoming16-21
9/146 PMSouth Car. StateSouth Florida16-55
9/146 PMWeber StateNevada13-19
9/147 PMNew HampshireFlorida Int’l17-30
9/147 PMMurray StateToledo0-45
9/147 PMLamarTexas A&M3-62
9/147:30 PMNorthwestern St.LSU14-65
9/147:30 PMSE Missouri StateMissouri0-50
9/147:30 PMTexas SouthernLouisiana6-77
9/148 PMMissouri StateTulane6-58
9/1410:15 PMPortland StateBoise State10-45
9/1410:45 PMMontanaOregon3-35

Week 4 (9 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
9/2112 PMElonWake Forest7-49
9/2112 PMMorgan StateArmy21-52
9/213 PMCentral Conn. St.Eastern Michigan29-34
9/216 PMHamptonLiberty27-62
9/216 PMWagnerFlorida Atlantic7-42
9/216 PMWilliam & MaryEast Carolina7-19
9/217 PMSouthern IllinoisArkansas State28-41
9/2110 PMSacramento StateFresno State20-34
9/2112 AMCentral ArkansasHawaii16-35

Week 5 (4 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
9/2812 PMHoly CrossSyracuse3-41
9/2812:30 PMDelawarePittsburgh14-17
9/284 PMTowsonFlorida0-38
9/287 PMNichollsTexas State3-24

Week 6 (No Games)

Week 7 (1 Game)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
10/124 PMRhode IslandVirginia Tech17-34

Week 8 (1 Game)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
10/196 PMMaineLiberty

Week 9 (No Games)

Week 10 (1 Game)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
11/2TBDWoffordClemson

Week 11 (No Games)

Week 12 (4 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
11/16TBDAlabama StateFlorida State
11/1612 PMVMIArmy
11/163 PMIdaho StateBYU
11/164 PMIncarnate WordNew Mexico State

Week 13 (6 Games)

DateTimeAwayHomeScore
11/23TBDMercerNorth Carolina
11/23TBDWestern CarolinaAlabama
11/23TBDSamfordAuburn
11/23TBDUT-MartinKentucky
11/23TBDEast Tennessee StateVanderbilt
11/23TBDAbilene ChristianMississippi State

Those are the 2019 FBS versus FCS games as of this writing. Any updates to dates or times will be provided as soon as they are known. Any missed changes and corrections are welcome!

Which Schools Would Be A Good Fit In The FCS?

Northwest Missouri State has won six Division 2 National Championships? Is a move to the FCS plausible for the Bearcats? (Photo Courtesy of The Podyum).

Which Schools Would Be A Good Fit In The FCS?

Last year, we looked at the FCS to FBS transition in a two-part series. Part one focused on how teams have historically performed going from the FCS to FBS. Part two analyzed the most likely candidates to consider a move to the FBS as well as two new programs. When going through the latter part, we found there would be some ideal landing spots in the FCS for certain schools.

We provided VCU and UT Arlington as two choices for a new program to land in the FBS. Biasedly, we like the choices we provided but when we take an even closer look at UT Arlington, there might be a better fit: the Southland Conference. The Southland members reside in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas making for lower travel costs. UTA would probably need to upgrade their facilities that have not been used for college football since 1985 (they have been used for high school football since that time).

UT Arlington is also currently part of the Sun Belt Conference, which makes the decision difficult. Do you forego the FBS conference to save on costs? Will you recoup the money needed for an expansion of the stadium? Is FBS the right fit? Those are only a few questions administrators will ask as they evaluate their options.

We will draw from two groups of teams: Division 1 programs that do not currently have a football program and current Division 2 schools. This list will not include known future FCS teams such as Merrimack College, Long Island University, Dixie State, or Augustana University.

Edit: The fine folks of Twitter have also pointed out that Tarleton State is considering a move to the Southland Conference in Division I. Tarleton State’s study can be found here. In addition, a new stadium built on the West Texas A&M campus along with a feasibility study by Collegiate Consulting could be a signal for an impending move to the FCS.

Let’s take a look at the (potential) candidates below. Please note, these are strictly speculative and this is simply a fun FCS thought experiment.

Northwest Missouri State (Jump Up)

Since 1998, the Northwest Missouri State Bearcats have been to the Division 2 National Championship ten times, winning six of those games. They have become the logical division two candidate to step up into the FCS.

Their current stadium capacity is 6,500, which is on the small end for a move up to FCS. The student population of roughly 6,500 is not ideal and there would need to be additional revenue generated from the Bearcats to accommodate the move to the FCS. It is also not suitable to hold the Missouri Valley Football Conference crowds. It may seem a bit harsh throwing them into the same conference as North Dakota State, but geographically this option makes the most sense.

Speaking of geography, their current configuration in the Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletic Association is condensed from southern Nebraska to central Oklahoma and only as east to the Missouri-Illinois border. The current set up is tough to beat in terms of travel.

Verdict: It would be awesome to see the Bearcats move up to the FCS and be apart of the Missouri Valley Football Conference. However, that would increase costs in terms of travel and some stadium expansion for bigger crowds, which makes the jump unlikely at this time.

Cal State Fullerton (Restarted)

Cal State Fullerton had a football program until 1992 due to a terrible on field product and low attendance. Since 1995, there have been repeated efforts to bring it back. As this article lays out, there are some hurdles to get over before this becomes reality.

One issue is the 10,000 seat stadium built in 1992. Yes, that is acceptable by FCS standards (compared to other programs as well) but the revenue generated for those 10,000 seats would not be enough to fund the football team. There is a large student population of 37,000 so perhaps there would be enough demand.

The Titans would be placed in the Big Sky Conference, which already has three California based teams. The travel at times might be tough if they have several trips up north each year (and do not forget about the cost of travel for other sports if they all go to the Big Sky).

As of right now, the Titans call the Big West home for their other sports and all of those teams play in California. That is a huge cost addition that is tough to ignore. Even if they only have football sponsored in the Big Sky, the costs increased travel costs would be a huge burden.

Verdict: Unlikely due to the travel costs for the football team and expansion of the stadium. Another worry is the long-term attendance if the school does not do well on the field as happened in 1992.

Valdosta State (Jump Up)

Valdosta State has only been playing football since 1982, but have reached the pinnacle of Division 2 football four times in 2004, 2007, 2012, and 2018. Located at the southern border of Georgia this school would be perfect for the Southern Conference. This is similar to their current conference, Gulf Coast. The travel costs would be similar in this scenario.

The stadium fits 11,250, which is a good size for Division 2. It may need to be expanded especially if they continue to be a good football program in the FCS. The current student population is 11,000, which is on the lower end.

Verdict: This would make sense and be a good option. However, VSU does not seem too keen on a move at this time.

Grand Canyon (New Program)

Grand Canyon may seem like a random team, but there are reasons why they might be a good fit. They moved from Division 2 to Division 1 in 2013 when they joined the WAC. In 2017, the NCAA approved the move to Division 1 allowing the Antelopes to be eligible for the postseason. Also, they play in the southwest, which would make them a decent addition to the Big Sky.

There is another factor at play, but it could be double-edged. Grand Canyon has over 90,000 students enrolled, but 70,000 of those students are enrolled in online classes. That is a massive revenue stream if they are to pursue a football program. There are a solid 20,000 students on campus, which is great for GCU, but the question becomes what happens if they are not successful on the field? Does the attendance start to dip badly? How would the fans react (and not just on social media)? Will the 20,000 on-campus students be enough to justify spending money on facilities over the long run?

Speaking of on-campus limitations, GCU would need to build a new stadium to host games. They currently have some impressive new facilities so we know it can be done properly, but cost of a new stadium is always a concern. Travel costs would also certainly be a concern as part of the Big Sky. With the Lopes are currently in the WAC, they have a unique travel schedule at times stretching from Chicago, Illinois (Chicago State is in the WAC) to Seattle, Washington.

There is not much momentum for a football team at GCU right now, but that could change.

Verdict: We will say likely, even if not for another decade or two. Grand Canyon is clearly building something impressive and eventually football will be part of that vision. They may even go for FBS football if the perfect situation arises (Mountain West perhaps?)

Northern Kentucky (New Program)

Northern Kentucky recently moved from the Atlantic Sun Conference to the Horizon League. The school was previously part of Division 2. The main reason for the move was due to geography as most Atlantic Sun schools played in southeast with several in Florida.

NKU has a student population of 14,500, which is on the lower end, but not the worst. For a stadium, they would have to build from scratch as none of near campus options could be reasonably fitted to host a football game.

The Norse would fit in well with the Ohio Valley Conference for their new football team. The longest trip would be to northern Alabama to face Jacksonville State. The travel costs would be comparable for the other sports though the inclusion of football would make the travel costs skyrocket due to the size of the roster.

Verdict: Unlikely. Previous estimates made by NKU pushed them towards a path to Division 1 instead of a football team. A new stadium plus all the other costs associated with the introduction of a football team make it prohibitive.

Wrap Up

While we think all the schools mentioned above would be great fits for the FCS in terms of geography and the new conference, it is impossible to ignore the costs. Whether it is a new stadium or just an expansion, that has to be measured against the additional revenue generated. In most cases, it just is not viable to make the move even if all five programs would make for wonderful additions to the FCS. However, the allure of FBS football has not stopped some like Liberty and Massachusetts from making the jump.

Should Army Consider Joining The AAC?

Jeff Monken celebrates during the 2018 Army-Navy game. (AP Photo / Matt Rourke)

Should Army Consider Joining The AAC?

Army’s football team has posted three straight winning seasons with all three ending in bowl victories. 2017 saw the team’s first 10 win season in over 20 years when they finished 10-3. Army followed that up with an 11-2 record last season, which were the most wins in school history and finished ranked in the top 25. Most recently, Connecticut’s move back to the Big East has created a void in the American Athletic Conference. Should Army consider joining the AAC?

Let’s start by going to the past. The far past.

The Glory Days

It is of little surprise that all of Army’s national championships came around war time. With all the recruits being drafted into the Army, there was a complete arsenal on the gridiron.

Army won national championships in 1914 and 1916 going 9-0 during both season. The Cadets had a winning record each year from 1907 through 1938. Then came World War II. (The titles are not claimed by Army, but they are recognized by the NCAA).

Though the US had not formally entered into the Second World War, in 1939 and 1940 Army’s football prowess was definitely not on display. They went 3-4-2 in 1939 and 1-7-1 in 1940. However, the 1941 through 1943 seasons saw a return to winning ways as they went 5-3-1, 6-3, and 7-2-1.

The 1944 squad went 9-0 scoring 504 points and giving up 35 points. They were named national champions, a feat they would repeat in 1945 when they went 9-0 again while scoring 412 points and surrendering 46. The 1946 squad went 9-0-1 with the tie being to Notre Dame, who would be crowned AP national champions. The 1944 – 46 teams featured the overwhelming duo of Doc Blanchard (1945 Heisman) and Glenn Davis (1946 Heisman).

Army would have several more strong seasons in the late 1940s and Pete Dawkins would take home the Heisman in 1958 after an 8-0-1 campaign. There were a few good seasons sprinkled in the next several decades, but the Cadets have not reached those heights again.

Prelude to Conference USA

Army was not a remarkable team in the 1980s. They went 8-3-1 and 9-3 with back-to-back bowl wins in 1984 and 1985. They went 9-3 again in 1988 with a Sun Bowl loss to Alabama. Other than the 1988 season, the Cadets basically hung around .500 between 1986 and 1995 having between 4 and 6 wins each year.

In 1996, Army achieved a 10-2 record with the an Independence Bowl loss to Auburn. It was their first 10 win season in school history and they finished in the top 25 polls for the first time 1958. Army struck while the iron was hot because in March 1997 they decided to join Conference USA (possible paywall) beginning with the 1998 season.

The Conference USA Disaster

The 1997 season was Army’s last season as an independent before they went into a conference for the first time. They went 4-7, but that was actually the highlight of their time as part of Conference USA.

The Cadets time on the field in C-USA between 1998 through 2004 was abysmal. They never won more than two conference games and never won more than three total games in a season. Their totals for C-USA were:

Overall record: 13-67

C-USA record: 9-41

Their low point was the 2003 season in which they went 0-13 overall and 0-8 in Conference USA. The 2003 season was the first time in NCAA history that a program finished with an 0-13 mark. Todd Berry was head coach for the first six games before being fired and replaced by John Mumford. Berry was at the helm for three and a half seasons in which he decided the wishbone offense was no longer needed at Army. Ouch.

Back To Independent Status

For their final C-USA season, Army hired Bobby Ross to bring them back to a respectable level. Ross lasted only three seasons going 9-25, but had to undo what Berry did. When Army left C-USA, they cited scheduling flexibility as the main reason for their departure. Eight conference games, plus the obligatory Navy and Air Force games left only one or (now) two games they could schedule as they saw fit.

Ross was succeeded by his protégé Stan Brock who went 3-9 in two seasons. He was fired and replaced by Rich Ellerson who led the Cadets to their first bowl game in 2010 since the ten win 1996 campaign. Army soon went back to their losing ways going 3-9, 2-10, and 3-9 in Ellerson’s final three seasons.

Monken’s Momentum

When Army hired Jeff Monken in December 2013 to lead the program, it seemed like a good fit. Monken led Georgia Southern to three consecutive FCS Playoff Semifinal appearances using the triple-option offense that is employed by service academies. It took two seasons of 4-8 and 2-10 before it all came together in Monken’s third season.

Army went 8-5 in 2016 capping off the season with an overtime victory against North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. In 2017, Army went 10-3 with a 42-35 win over San Diego State in the Armed Forces Bowl. The best was yet to come as 2018 saw Army go 11-2 with an obliteration of Houston, 70-14, in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Monken was rewarded for the 2018 season by being named the Coach of the Year. He also signed a contract extension with Army through the 2024 season.

The future is bright and Monken has signaled his intent to stick around so… Should Army consider joining the AAC or another conference?

A Complicated Puzzle

The answer to the “should Army consider joining the AAC” question is nuanced. Some will point to fellow service academies Air Force and Navy successes in conference play. Others will point to keeping Army and Navy together as their rivalry is deeply intertwined with the fabric of college football. Perhaps Army’s own previous conference history, albeit short and disastrous, provide clues.

Let’s start with how Navy and Air Force have fared in their respective conference. Navy is simple as they have been in the American Athletic Conference for only four seasons. In that time, Navy has been co-champions of the AAC West twice, played in one AAC championship game (lost 34-10 to Temple in 2016), and had three winning seasons. 2018 was very poor at 3-10, but there were some close games as well. The jury is still out on Navy’s decision to go to the AAC despite some differing opinions (possible paywall).

Air Force has a much longer history of being in a conference. They were part of the Western Athletic Conference from 1980 until 1998 and then joined the Mountain West in 1999. In the 39 years since having a conference affiliation, Air Force has gone to 23 bowl games and have had consistent success since Troy Calhoun took over in 2007.

Part of Air Force’s success has been their geography. Even in the WAC, they were still relatively close to their opponents. Navy has the oddity of being the now second most eastern team in the AAC, yet were somehow placed in the west division where they still reside. Still, they have shown success in their brief AAC tenure.

Potential Destination

If Army were to consider joining a conference the one that makes the most sense is the American Athletic Conference. They would be situated close to Connecticut, Navy, and Temple. The AAC might have to re-draw their divisions and the absence of Connecticut actually makes this interesting.

Had UConn remained, instead of having Navy be part of the “west” they could change the divisions to north and south. The north would have been comprised of Army, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Navy, Temple, and East Carolina. The south would have included Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and South Florida.

Without UConn in the mix, it becomes murkier. The east cluster of Army, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Navy, and Temple is clear. The west cluster is Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa. Then, there are the two Florida schools in UCF and USF. Here, they could just split UCF to the east and USF to the west. In this scenario, there are balanced divisions, though somewhat awkwardly.

(Ideally the two Florida teams would be in the same division, but unless the AAC is going to go the super-expansion route to 14 teams this partition will do. Besides, it stays in line with conference’s confusing geography philosophy).

Another problem is the Army-Navy game tends to be played all by itself with the potential of the entire college football audience watching. Being part of a conference would cause this to be played during November (or earlier) because it could impact the conference championship game. While it would be amazing for the winner of Army-Navy to determine the AAC one or possibly two title representatives, is it worth foregoing the spotlight of being the sole football game on TV in December?

One work around: Allow Army-Navy to keep it’s preferred time slot as a non-conference game. The AAC would probably agree to this and it would not impact the regular season title race. However, it would eliminate another week of flexibility from Army’s schedule. Speaking of scheduling…

A third problem is that Army clearly likes their scheduling flexibility and it has been favorable for them. It is not a mistake that Army’s last three seasons have been the best in over two decades. They had five home games in 2016, six in 2017, and six in 2018 while 2016 and 2018 both saw an additional game within the state of New York (at Buffalo both times). Also factor in the neutral site game against Navy, which gives Army 7 or 8 home/neutral site games that are relatively close to West Point.

Army gets complete control over 10 games a season, which allows them to play a few big teams for paychecks while still playing a few FCS opponents to get closer to bowl eligibility. Mix in several group of 5 teams who are beatable along with fellow independents and Army has a recipe for at least 6 to 7 wins each season as long as they are competitive.

Summary

Army’s short stint in Conference USA was a terrible mistake as they moved to a more restrictive schedule while moving away from the wishbone offense. That led to a terrible product on the field as they were not competitive at all.

Army’s return to independent status did not bear fruit until the last three seasons with Jeff Monken at the helm. Army has seen their best success in decades thanks to Monken’s leadership. Now let’s answer the question posed in the article’s title.

Should Army Consider Joining The AAC?

Absolutely they should consider it. They are stable with the proper offensive scheme (as opposed to their C-USA time) and their head coach, who clearly has the right ideas for the program. They would be a good geographical fit for the American Athletic Conference while preserving their annual rivalry tilt against Navy.

Should Army Join The AAC?

This is tougher to answer, but no they should not. They clearly value scheduling flexibility and if the likes of Massachusetts and smaller group of 5 teams continue to schedule Army, why deviate it from a successful formula? Going to a conference automatically removes 8 games from their scheduling control and with Air Force in the rotation, the Cadets will only have 3 games of their choosing. They will have additional AAC TV revenue, but will it cover the additional travel expenses? If not, Army might need to schedule more Power 5 teams potentially leaving them short of bowl eligibility.

For now, Army should remain as an Independent. This could all change in a few years when conference realignment kicks off again (or sooner if UConn proves to be the domino).

FBS and FCS Changes For 2019 Season

Merrimack College is moving up from Division II to Division I and will compete at the FCS level in football (photo courtesy of Merrimack College).

FBS and FCS Changes For The 2019 Season

The college football season does not kickoff until August 24, but that won’t stop us from getting excited. We will start by detailing the FBS and FCS changes for the 2019 season.

Overtime Rule Changes

We start with a general rule change regarding overtime. The change this season is that teams will go for two instead of starting at the 25 yard line commencing with the fifth overtime. Four overtime periods will be played as they previously were with each team getting the ball. Previously, teams played as many overtimes as necessary with each team getting a possession until one team failed to match the other team in points for that overtime period. In addition, the third and fourth overtimes will still require the teams to go for a two-point conversion.

Another note: a two-minute break has been mandated after the second and fourth overtimes. At least we will have a chance to catch our collective breath.

FBS Changes

Amazingly, there are very few changes in terms of team movements. The one note is that Liberty will be bowl eligible in 2019 after moving up from FCS in 2018. The Flames will remain an Independent team and will once again play New Mexico State twice this season as they did in 2018.

FCS Changes

The plethora of changes to detail will take place at the FCS level. The overtime rules discussed above will apply here as well.

General Schedule Quirk

Thanks to the NCAA’s draconian bylaws, the 2019 season allows for a 12 game regular season at the FCS level instead of the usual 11. Why? Simply due to the calendar. 14 Saturdays between Labor Day weekend and the last Saturday in November (see bylaw 17.10.3 on page 272) allow for the 12 games to be played.

This last time this occurred was in 2013 and will happen again in 2024. For FCS fans, the likelihood of a permanent 12 game regular season are zero after the NCAA rejected a proposal back in 2017.

Conference Changes – Up From Division II

We start with the two teams moving up from Division II into FCS competition.

Merrimack College is moving from the Division II Northeast-10 Conference to the FCS Northeast Conference. The Warriors will become full Division I members starting with the 2023-24 academic year. They won’t be playing a full Northeast Conference schedule this season, but hope to do so in 2020. As part of the transition, the Warriors are ineligible for the NEC title and FCS playoffs this season.

The second team moving up from Division II to FCS is Long Island University. They too are moving from the NE-10 to the NEC. LIU is merging the LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds and LIU Post Pioneers to become the LIU Sharks. The Pioneers were part of the Division II level while the Blackbirds were already at the Division I level, but did not sponsor football. The Sharks will be competing with a 7 game conference schedule in 2019. LIU will be eligible for the NEC title.

Moving Down To Division II

Savannah State will be departing the FCS to drop down to Division II as announced in late 2017. The Tigers were a member of the MEAC since 2010 and now re-join the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (SIAC). The Tigers were a member of the SIAC from 1969 through 1999 before becoming a then Division 1-AA (now FCS) Independent. The MEAC will have 9 football teams in 2019.

Moving From FCS Independent Status

Two teams are moving from an FCS Independent to the Big South. Those schools are the Hampton Pirates and North Alabama Lions. The Big South will have 8 teams this season.

Hampton left the MEAC after the 2017 season after joining the conference in 1995. The Pirates played as an FCS Independent in 2018 in their transition year to the Big South. They played 10 games (Tennessee State game was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence) and went 7-3. The Pirates are eligible for both the Big South title and the FCS Playoffs.

Meanwhile, North Alabama moved up from Division II for the 2018 season. After a 7-3 season in 2018, the Lions will face a full slate of FCS teams for the first time including 7 games against Big South foes. The Lions are not eligible for the Big South title and are ineligible for the FCS Playoffs until 2022 when their transition to Division I is complete.

Stuck In Indepedence

North Dakota is in their final season as an FCS Independent on their way to becoming a Missouri Valley Football Conference member. North Dakota has left the Big Sky Conference, but maintains the previously scheduled Big Sky matchups. The games will count in the conference standings for the Fighting Hawks’ opponents. UND will not be eligible for the Big Sky title, but can still be selected as an at-large team for the FCS Playoffs.

Future Moves

The Big South is full of changes this year and next. 2019 will mark the final year for Presbyterian as a football member of the conference. They will be an Independent in 2020 and then become a member of the Pioneer Football League starting in 2021. Presbyterian joined the Big South in 2009.

Dixie State, currently a Division II member, will move up to Division I starting in 2020. They will compete as an FCS Independent in 2020 while their other sports will compete in the Western Athletic Conference. Dixie State is part of the Rocky Mountain Athletic Association and currently has no plans for joining an FCS football conference. The Trailblazers will not be eligible for the FCS Playoffs until 2024 due to the transition.

Augustana announced their intention to transition to Division I in December 2018. They currently reside in the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference, but have not discussed a Division I conference to join. It is assumed they will join the Summit League, however, that conference does not offer football. In that case, the Vikings will then have to decide whether they want offer scholarship football or not. This, in turn, will help decided if they land in a conference such as the Pioneer Football League (non-scholarship) or the more geographically appropriate Missouri Valley Football Conference.

More FCS football conjecture can be found here.

Edit: Thanks to the folks on Twitter, both Tarleton State and West Texas A&M have considered moving to the FCS. Tarleton State’s feasibility move can be found here with the Southland Conference explicitly mentioned. West Texas A&M released a bullish statement after working with Collegiate Consulting and they are opening a new football stadium for the 2019 season.

Staying Put

Much to the delight of Stetson fans and alumni, the Hatters are staying put at the Division 1 level. Despite an examination into dropping to Division II or Division III, there will be no change for Stetson’s affiliation at this time. Stetson currently plays in the Pioneer Football League at the FCS level after bringing back the team starting with the 2013 season.

That covers the FBS and FCS changes for the 2019 season and we look forward to the start of the season as well as more content in the next few months!

Infantino’s Re-election Shows Little Has Changed With FIFA

Gianni Infantino at the 2018 World Cup held in Russia. Infantino was re-elected as FIFA president after running unopposed. He will serve until 2023. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images Europe )

Infantino’s Re-Election Shows Little Has Changed With FIFA

On Wednesday, Gianni Infantino was re-elected as FIFA president for a second term. He won the bid with no opposition with the FIFA council opting to back him by acclamation. Infantino had this to say as leader of the organization:

…”a new FIFA, an organisation that is synonymous with credibility, confidence, integrity.”

– Infantino during his speech to FIFA’s 69th Congress on Wednesday, June 5, 2019.

Transparency and Voting

A link to FIFA’s key achievements between 2016 and 2019 can be found here. Outside of FIFA tooting their own horn, it is clear little has changed with FIFA from five years ago. Let’s start with this very election.

FIFA, claiming to be “more transparent”, did not even hold a vote for Infantino’s election. Sure, no one ran against him (why not?), but given recent events, holding a vote for this election would seem to be prudent to help build credibility. According to the New York Times (potential paywall), a statute was enacted just this week that allowed for the vote to be bypassed. Pretty convenient for a “transparent and credible” organization.

Speaking of votes, the Congress did test their voting and came up with this gem (per Rob Harris).

Not only did the voting test work improperly for some members (210 members voted, yet only 177 votes were deemed valid), 6 did not even know that this year’s Women’s World Cup was taking place in France. It begins on Friday. One could surmise this is a step towards transparency by even showing this blunder, but it does not really make FIFA look any better.

Alternative Facts

Here is another quote from Infantino’s address to Congress:

“This organization went from being toxic, almost criminal to what it should be — an organization that develops football, an organization that cares about football,” Infantino said. “We have transformed it into a new FIFA — an organization which is synonymous with credibility, trust, integrity, equality, human rights.”

Infantino during his speech to FIFA’s 69th Congress on Wednesday, June 5, 2019.

By “almost criminal” does he mean completely corrupt? Surely, he does. And doesn’t being corrupt mean being criminal? There’s no almost about it.

The part about being “an organization that cares about football” is true. Especially when it comes to money. According to FIFA’s own press release, the reserves increased to $2.745 billion while a new record in revenue was reached in 2018 with $6.421 billion as a result of the 2018 World Cup. If my assets increased by 50% over the previous cycle, I’d definitely care about the sport too.

The last part – the one about synonymity with credibility, trust, integrity, equality, and human rights – is a lot to unpack. FIFA hardly evokes positive thoughts and certainly none of the ones referenced by Infantino will be at the top of the list. One only needs to read through the Wikipedia entry on the 2015 Corruption Case to see how wrong that statement is.

We have now established that credibility, trust, and integrity are, in fact, not synonymous with FIFA. Let’s move onto equality and human rights.

Equality

What is FIFA’s definition of equality? The “unprecedented” 20% of FIFA committee members now being women? The requirement that there must be at least 1 woman per confederation on the FIFA Council? Or what about the five games being held in Paris, yet the advertisement shown below is from September 2018 for the men’s French national team?

The 2019 Women’s World Cup features $30 million in prize money distributed to the nations, which is double the amount paid in 2015. $400 million was distributed at the 2018 World Cup.

The world’s top female soccer player, Ada Hegerberg, has not played for Norway in two years as she battles for equality in the Nordic country. She has decided to skip this year’s World Cup, which will take some shine off the upcoming tournament.

Hegerberg’s fight is just one of several around the world for equal pay between the men’s and women’s teams including the United States and Australia.

In fairness to FIFA, the revenues generated from the men’s World Cup far exceed the women’s World Cup, which leads to the observed disparity in prize money. It makes sense from an overall revenue standpoint that men would get paid more. Moreover, the relatively recent introduction of the women’s tournament plays a part in the smaller revenues (2019 will be only the 8th edition of the Women’s World Cup).

But…

Given the surging popularity and growth of the women’s game in the last decade, it would make sense for FIFA to provide more money. In fact, given FIFA’s strong desire to acquire money, they ought to grow the women’s game faster to reap higher revenues sooner.

Furthermore, increasing the prize pool to draw ought to bring more women into the sport with a higher wage. Higher prizes equals more competition, in turn leading to higher quality matches. This results in higher revenues/prize money and (hopefully) a virtuous cycle that leads to equality between the men’s and women’s games.

Human Rights

Finally, we reach the human rights aspect. Minky Worden has a Twitter thread linking articles detailing the failed attempt to expand the 2022 World Cup beyond Qatar’s borders.

Why on earth did FIFA want to expand the 2022 World Cup from 32 to 48 teams given the extensive human rights issues? One can probably figure out the billion$ of rea$on$ to ignore all the crimes.

For those wanting background on the human rights issues plaguing Qatar, Tifo Football has a good video on the topic, which is presented below.

As much as Gianni Infantio would like us to believe that FIFA has evolved, it has not.

2019 Women’s College World Series Schedule

Oklahoma celebrates their Super Regional victory over Northwestern. The Sooners are headed back to the Women’s College World Series seeking their 5th title in school history. Oklahoma enters the WCWS as the #1 overall seed and have been dominant for much of the season. (Bryan Terry / The Oklahoman)

2019 Women’s College World Series Schedule

The 2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball season has come down to the final 8 teams vying to win the Women’s College World Series. An updated bracket can be found here. Each game of the 2019 Women’s College World Series will take place from ASA Hall of Fame Stadium in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

The remaining 8 teams will compete in a double elimination format until only two teams remain. Those two teams will then play in a best-of-three championship series to determine the 2019 national champion.

The Florida State Seminoles were the defending national champion after defeating the Washington Huskies in the 2018 championship series. The Seminoles lost to Oklahoma State in the Super Regionals. The Oklahoma Sooners won the national championship in both 2016 and 2017 will be back seeking their third title in four seasons.

Seven of the eight schools in the Women’s College World Series have previously made an appearance in Oklahoma City. Minnesota is making its first appearance in the WCWS. Of the seven teams that have previously made the WCWS, Arizona has had the longest absence since their last appearance in 2010. The below table shows the eight teams taking part in the WCWS along with their last appearance, record, conference affiliation, and all-time WCWS appearances.

SeedTeamLast WCWSRecordConferenceWCWS Appearances
1Oklahoma201854-3Big 1213th
2UCLA201851-6Pac-1229th
3Washington201850-7Pac-1214th
5Florida201849-16SEC10th
6Arizona201047-12Pac-1223rd
7MinnesotaNone46-12Big 101st
8Alabama201657-8SEC12th
13Oklahoma State201144-15Big 128th

The Women’s College World Series will get underway on Thursday, May 30 with four games scheduled for the opening day. The entire schedule can be found in the table below with the Championship Series located in a separate table.

The tables below will be updated with final scores as the games go final each day. Please note all times listed below are Eastern. The Championship Series schedule is listed at the bottom of the article.

DateGameTime (EST)
TV
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/30/19Game 112 PM
ESPN
#6 Arizona#3 Washington3-18 Innings
5/30/19Game 22:30 PM
ESPN
#7 Minnesota#2 UCLA2-7
5/30/19Game 37 PM
ESPN2
#13 Okla. State#5 Florida2-1
5/30/19Game 49:30 PM
ESPN2
#8 Alabama#1 Oklahoma2-3
5/31/19Game 57 PM
ESPN
#2 UCLA#6 Arizona6-2
5/31/19Game 69:30 PM
ESPN
#1 Oklahoma#13 Okla. State6-1
6/1/19Game 712 PM
ESPN
#3 Washington#7 Minnesota5-3Minnesota Eliminated
6/1/19Game 82:30 PM
ESPN
#5 Florida#8 Alabama3-15Florida Eliminated / 5 Innings
6/1/19Game 97 PM
ESPN
#13 Okla. State#3 Washington0-1Okla. State Eliminated
6/1/19Game 109:30 PM
ESPN
#8 Alabama#6 Arizona2-0Arizona Eliminated
6/2/19Game 111 PM
ESPN
#3 Washington#2 UCLA0-3Washington Eliminated / 10 Innings
6/2/19Game 123:30 PM
ESPN
#1 Oklahoma#8 Alabama0-18 Innings
6/2/19Game 137 PM
ESPN2
Game 11 LoserGame 11 WinnerElimination
Game / If Necessary
6/2/19Game 149:30 PM
ESPN2
#8 Alabama#1 Oklahoma3-7Alabama Eliminated

2019 Women’s College World Series Championship Series

DateGameTime (EST)
TV
Team #1Team #2Score
6/3/19Game 17 PM
ESPN
#2 UCLA#1 Oklahoma16-3
6/4/19Game 28 PM
ESPN
#1 Oklahoma#2 UCLA4-5
6/5/19Game 38 PM
ESPN
#2 UCLA#1 OklahomaIf Necessary

2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball Super Regional Schedule

James Madison won two games against #15 seed Michigan in Ann Arbor on Monday to advance to their second Super Regional in school history (Photo courtesy of James Madison Softball via Twitter @JMUSoftball).

2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball Super   Regional Schedule

The 2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball Tournament is down to 16 teams after the first weekend of play. This upcoming weekend will feature those 16 teams in the Super Regional round to determine the final 8 teams that will advance to the Women’s College World Series in Oklahoma City. Only one of the 16 national seeds, #15 Michigan, failed to advance to the Super Regional round. An updated bracket can be found here.

Below are the 16 teams that advanced to the Super Regional round in a sortable table.

SeedTeamRecordConferenceSuper
Regional
Appearances
1Oklahoma52-3Big 1213th
2UCLA49-6Pac-1211th
3Washington48-7Big 1013th
4Florida State54-8ACC8th
5Florida47-15SEC12th
6Arizona45-12Pac-1214th
7Minnesota44-12Big 102nd
8Alabama55-7SEC15th
9Texas45-15Big 125th
10LSU42-17SEC8th
11Mississippi40-18SEC2nd
12Tennessee42-15SEC11th
13Oklahoma State42-14Big 122nd
14Kentucky36-22SEC7th
16Northwestern47-11Big 105th
UnseededJames Madison50-8CAA2nd

Below, we list each Super Regional in order of the opening Women’s College World Series matchup (1 v 8, 4 v 5, etc.). All dates and times listed below are tentative. Updates, along with final scores, will be made as the changes are known. The Tallahassee and Tuscaloosa Super Regionals will begin on Thursday while the remaining six will start play on Friday.

Super Regional #1 – Norman, Oklahoma
DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/24/19Game #13 PM
ESPN2
#16 Northwestern#1 Oklahoma0-3
5/25/19Game #24 PM
ESPN
#1 Oklahoma#16 Northwestern8-0OU to WCWS
5/26/19Game #32 PM
ESPN
#16 Northwestern#1 OklahomaIf Necessary
Super Regional #8 – Tuscaloosa, Alabama
DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/23/19Game #19 PM
ESPN
#9 Texas#8 Alabama0-3
5/24/19Game #29 PM
ESPN
#8 Alabama#9 Texas5-7
5/25/19Game #32 PM
ESPN
#9 Texas#8 Alabama5-8Alabama to WCWS
Super Regional #4 – Tallahassee, Florida
DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/23/19Game #17 PM
ESPN
#13 Okla. State#4 Florida State3-19 Innings
5/24/19Game #27 PM
ESPN
#4 Florida State#13 Okla. State4-1
5/25/19Game #312 PM
ESPN
#13 Okla. State#4 Florida State3-2OSU to WCWS
Super Regional #5 – Gainesville, Florida
DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/24/19Game #17 PM
ESPN2
#12 Tenn.#5 Florida0-3
5/25/19Game #26 PM
ESPN
#5 Florida#12 Tenn.2-39 Innings
5/26/19Game #32 PM
ESPNU
#12 Tenn.#5 Florida1-2Florida to WCWS / 8 Innings
Super Regional #3 – Seattle, Washington
DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/24/19Game #19 PM
ESPN2
#14 Kentucky#3 Washington0-3
5/25/19Game #210 PM
ESPN2
#3 Washington#14 Kentucky5-0Washington to WCWS
5/26/19Game #310 PM
ESPN2
#14 Kentucky#3 WashingtonIf Necessary
Super Regional #6 – Tuscon, Arizona
DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/24/19Game #17 PM
ESPNU
#11 Ole Miss#6 Arizona2-5
5/25/19Game #28 PM
ESPN2
#6 Arizona#11 Ole Miss9-1Arizona to WCWS
5/26/19Game #38 PM
ESPN2
#11 Ole Miss#6 ArizonaIf Necessary
Super Regional #2 – Los Angeles, California
DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/24/19Game #19 PM
ESPNU
James Madison#2 UCLA1-6
5/25/19Game #28 PM
ESPN
#2 UCLAJames Madison7-2UCLA to WCWS
5/26/19Game #34 PM
ESPNU
James Madison#2 UCLAIf Necessary
Super Regional #7 – Minneapolis, Minnesota
DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/24/19Game #15 PM
ESPN2
#10 LSU#7 Minnesota3-5
5/25/19Game #26 PM
ESPN2
#7 Minnesota#10 LSU3-0Minnesota to WCWS
5/26/19Game #34 PM
ESPN
#10 LSU#7 MinnesotaIf Necessary
Thursday, May 23 Super Regional Games
Super RegionalGameTime (EST)
TV
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
TallahasseeGame 17 PM
ESPN
#13 Okla. St.#4 Fla. St.3-19 Innings
TuscaloosaGame 19 PM
ESPN
#9 Texas#8 Alabama0-3
Friday, May 24 Super Regional Games
RegionalGameTime (EST)
TV
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
NormanGame 13 PM
ESPN2
#16 Northwestern#1 Oklahoma0-3
MinneapolisGame 15 PM
ESPN2
#10 LSU#7 Minnesota3-5
TallahasseeGame 27 PM
ESPN
#4 Florida State#13 Oklahoma State4-1Potential Elimination Game
TusconGame 17 PM
ESPNU
#11 Ole Miss#6 Arizona2-5
GainesvilleGame 17 PM
ESPN2
#12 Tennessee#5 Florida0-3
TuscaloosaGame 29 PM
ESPN
#8 Alabama#9 Texas5-7Potential Elimination Game
Los AngelesGame 19 PM
ESPNU
James Madison#2 UCLA1-6
SeattleGame 19 PM
ESPN2
#14 Kentucky#3 Washington0-3
Saturday, May 25 Super Regional Games
RegionalGameTime (EST)
TV
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
TallahasseeGame 312 PM
ESPN
#13 Oklahoma State#4 Florida State3-2OSU to WCWS
TuscaloosaGame 32 PM
ESPN
#9 Texas#8 Alabama5-8Alabama to WCWS
NormanGame 24 PM
ESPN
#1 Oklahoma#16 Northwestern8-0OU to WCWS
MinneapolisGame 26 PM
ESPN2
#7 Minnesota#10 LSU3-0Minnesota to WCWS
GainesvilleGame 26 PM
ESPN
#5 Florida#12 Tennessee2-39 Innings
TusconGame 28 PM
ESPN2
#6 Arizona#11 Ole Miss9-1Arizona to WCWS
Los AngelesGame 28 PM
ESPN
#2 UCLAJames Madison7-2UCLA to WCWS
SeattleGame 210 PM
ESPN2
#3 Washington#14 Kentucky5-0Kentucky to WCWS
Sunday, May 26 Super Regional Games
RegionalGameTime (EST)
TV
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
GainesvilleGame 32 PM
ESPNU
#12 Tennessee#5 Florida1-2Florida to WCWS / 8 Innings
NormanGame 32 PM
ESPN
#16 Northwestern#1 OklahomaIf Necessary
Los AngelesGame 34 PM
ESPNU
James Madison#2 UCLAIf Necessary
MinneapolisGame 34 PM
ESPN
#10 LSU#7 MinnesotaIf Necessary
TusconGame 38 PM
ESPN2
#11 Ole Miss#6 ArizonaIf Necessary
SeattleGame 310 PM
ESPN2
#14 Kentucky#3 WashingtonIf Necessary
Women’s College World Series

The 2019 Women’s College World Series will take place between Thursday, May 30 and Wednesday, June 5 with every game shown on one of the ESPN family of network channels. All of the games will take place at the ASA Hall of Fame Stadium and OGE Energy Field from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball Tournament Schedule

Florida State won the 2018 Women’s College World Series after sweeping the Washington Huskies in the Championship Series. Can the Seminoles defend their crown? (Photo courtesy of WBSC)

2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball Tournament Schedule

The 2019 NCAA Division I Softball bracket has been revealed as the road to Oklahoma City commences this week. The Florida State Seminoles are the defending National Champions after sweeping the Washington Huskies in the 2019 WCWS Championship Series. The top four seeds are Oklahoma, UCLA, Washington, and Florida State.

The 2019 Tournament will begin with the regional round on Thursday, May 16. The regional round will conclude on Sunday, May 19 with the 16 winners of each regional advancing to the Super Regional Round. Below are the 16 National Seeds and regional hosts as ranked by the NCAA.

SeedTeamRecordConference
1Oklahoma49-2Big 12
2UCLA46-5Pac-12
3Washington45-7Pac-12
4Florida State51-8ACC
5Florida44-15SEC
6Arizona42-12Pac-12
7Minnesota41-12Big 10
8Alabama52-7SEC
9Texas41-14Big 12
10LSU40-16SEC
11Ole Miss37-17SEC
12Tennessee39-14SEC
13Oklahoma State39-14Big 12
14Kentucky33-22SEC
15Michigan43-11Big 10
16Northwestern43-10Big 10

2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball Teams

Below are all 64 teams that have made the 2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball tournament. 32 teams received automatic bids either by being the regular season champions or winning the conference tournament while the other 32 are selected at-large by the Softball Committee. The Atlantic 10 (Fordham), American Athletic (South Florida), and Big 12 (Oklahoma) conference tournaments were not completed as a result of weather. In these three cases, the automatic bid went to the regular season champion.

In the sortable table below, the automatic bids are listed first followed by the at-large bids listed in order of conference. The records for each team and which regional they have been assigned to are provided as well. Note: the hosts for each regional have been marked with an asterisk in the table below.

ConferenceTeamRecordRouteRegional
American EastUMBC30-22Tournament ChampionsNorman
American AthleticSouth Florida40-17Regular Season ChampionsTallahassee
ACCFlorida State*51-8Tournament ChampionsTallahassee
Atlantic 10Fordham29-24Regular Season ChampionsSeattle
Atlantic SunLipscomb41-13-1Tournament ChampionsTuscaloosa
Big 12Oklahoma*49-2Regular
Season
Champions
Norman
Big EastDePaul34-14Tournament ChampionsAnn Arbor
Big SkyWeber State26-19Tournament ChampionsLos Angeles
Big SouthLongwood37-20Tournament ChampionsKnoxville
Big TenMichigan*43-11Tournament ChampionsAnn Arbor
Big WestCal State
Fullerton
38-16Regular Season ChampionsLos Angeles
ColonialJames Madison47-7Tournament ChampionsAnn Arbor
C-USALouisiana Tech44-14Tournament ChampionsBaton Rouge
HorizonDetroit Mercy31-26Tournament ChampionsEvanston
Ivy LeagueHarvard25-17Championship Series WinnerTuscon
Mid-AmericanToledo29-26Tournament ChampionsLexington
Metro AtlanticMonmouth36-16Tournament ChampionsBaton Rouge
Mid-EasternBethune-Cookman26-29Tournament ChampionsTallahassee
Missouri ValleyDrake42-14Tournament ChampionsMinneapolis
Mountain WestColorado State38-10Regular Season ChampionsTuscon
NortheastSt. Francis (PA)29-29Tournament ChampionsAnn Arbor
Ohio ValleySE Missouri State45-16Tournament ChampionsOxford
Pac-12UCLA*46-5Regular Season ChampionsLos Angeles
Patriot LeagueBoston U37-18Tournament ChampionsGainesville
SECFlorida*44-15Tournament ChampionsGainesville
SouthernChattanooga37-15Tournament ChampionsOxford
SouthlandSam Houston
State
34-21Tournament ChampionsAustin
SWACAlabama State24-23Tournament ChampionsTuscaloosa
Summit LeagueNorth Dakota State42-14Tournament ChampionsMinneapolis
Sun BeltLouisiana50-4Tournament ChampionsOxford
WACSeattle U39-15Tournament ChampionsSeattle
West CoastBYU29-24Regular Season ChampionsStillwater
American AthleticHouston37-17At-LargeAustin
American AthleticTulsa35-18At-LargeStillwater
ACCLouisville33-21At-LargeEvanston
ACCNorth Carolina35-18At-LargeKnoxville
ACCNotre Dame36-16At-LargeNorman
ACCVirginia Tech45-9At-LargeLexington
Big 10Illinois32-23At-LargeLexington
Big 10Minnesota*41-12At-LargeMinneapolis
Big 10Northwestern*43-10At-LargeEvanston
Big 10Ohio State34-16At-LargeKnoxville
Big 10Wisconsin40-12At-LargeNorman
Big 12Oklahoma State*39-14At-LargeStillwater
Big 12Texas*41-14At-LargeAustin
Big 12Texas Tech39-14At-LargeBaton Rouge
Mountain WestBoise State34-14At-LargeGainesville
Ohio ValleySouthern Illinois33-13At-LargeEvanston
Pac-12Arizona*42-12At-LargeTuscon
Pac-12Arizona State33-18At-LargeTuscaloosa
Pac-12Stanford32-18At-LargeGainesville
Pac-12Washington*45-7At-LargeSeattle
SECAlabama*52-7At-LargeTuscaloosa
SECArkansas38-18At-LargeStillwater
SECAuburn37-19At-LargeTuscon
SECGeorgia40-17At-LargeMinneapolis
SECKentucky*33-22At-LargeLexington
SECLSU*40-16At-LargeBaton Rouge
SECMissouri32-23At-LargeLos Angeles
SECMississippi State33-21At-LargeSeattle
SECOle Miss*37-17At-LargeOxford
SECSouth Carolina36-17At-LargeTallahassee
SECTennessee*39-14At-LargeKnoxville
SECTexas A&M28-25At-LargeAustin

Regionals

The 2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball tournament will start with 16 regionals divided into four teams per regional. Each regional employs the double-elimination format with the 16 national seeds listed above hosting a regional. The regionals are listed in order of the potential Super Regional matchup (i.e. #1 vs #16, #8 vs #9, #5 vs. #12, #4 vs. #13, etc.).

All dates and times listed below are tentative. Updates, along with final scores, will be made as the changes are known.

Regional #1 – Norman, Oklahoma

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #17 PMWisconsinNotre Dame4-2
5/17/19Game #29:30 PMUMBC#1 Oklahoma0-125 Innings
5/18/19Game #34 PM#1 OklahomaWisconsin4-0No-Hitter
5/18/19Game #46:30 PMNotre DameUMBC2-0UMBC Eliminated
5/18/19Game #59 PMNotre DameWisconsin4-5Notre Dame Eliminated
5/19/19Game #62 PMWisconsin#1 Oklahoma2-1
5/19/19Game #74:30 PM#1 OklahomaWisconsin2-0Oklahoma Advances

Regional #16 – Evanston, Illinois

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #11 PMSouthern IllinoisLouisville5-9
5/17/19Game #23:30 PMDetroit Mercy#16 Northwestern1-155 Innings
5/18/19Game #32 PMLouisville#16 Northwestern2-1
5/18/19Game #44:30 PMDetroit MercySouthern Illinois1-2Detroit Mercy Eliminated
5/18/19Game #57 PM#16 NorthwesternSouthern Illinois8-1Southern Illinois Eliminated
5/19/19Game #62 PM#16 NorthwesternLouisville7-0
5/19/19Game #74:30 PMLouisville#16 Northwestern3-4Northwestern Advances

Regional #8 – Tuscaloosa, Alabama

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #14 PMLipscombArizona State3-4
5/17/19Game #26:30 PMAlabama State#8 Alabama2-8
5/18/19Game #32 PMArizona State#8 Alabama4-7
5/18/19Game #44:30 PMAlabama StateLipscomb0-14Alabama State Eliminated
5/18/19Game #57 PMArizona StateLipscomb10-1Lipscomb Eliminated / 6 Innings
5/19/19Game #62 PM#8 AlabamaArizona State9-8Alabama Advances
5/19/19Game #74:30 PMGame 6
Winner
Game 6
Loser
Elimination
Game / If Necessary

Regional #9 – Austin, Texas

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #12 PMTexas A&MHouston1-3
5/17/19Game #25 PMSam Houston
State
#9 Texas2-1
5/18/19Game #32 PMHoustonSam Houston State5-0
5/18/19Game #44:30 PM#9 TexasTexas A&M3-2Texas A&M Eliminated / 8 Innings
5/18/19Game #57 PM#9 TexasSam Houston State3-0SHSU Eliminated
5/19/19Game #64:30 PMHouston#9 Texas2-5
5/19/19Game #77 PM#9 TexasHouston7-0Texas Advances

Regional #5 – Gainesville, Florida

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #112 PMBoise StateStanford9-1
5/17/19Game #22:30 PMBoston U.#5 Florida0-3
5/18/19Game #32 PM#5 FloridaBoise State8-05 Innings
5/18/19Game #44:30 PMStanfordBoston U.13-2Boston U. Eliminated
5/18/19Game #57 PMStanfordBoise State0-2Stanford Eliminated
5/19/19Game #612 PMBoise State#5 Florida0-5Florida Advances
5/19/19Game #72:30 PMGame 6
Winner
Game 6
Loser
Elimination
Game / If Necessary

Regional #12 – Knoxville, Tennessee

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #111 AMOhio StateNorth Carolina1-0
5/17/19Game #21:30 PMLongwood#12 Tennessee0-8
5/18/19Game #312 PM#12 TennesseeOhio State12-4
5/18/19Game #42:30 PMNorth CarolinaLongwood3-1Longwood Eliminated
5/18/19Game #55 PMNorth CarolinaOhio State5-3Ohio St. Eliminated
5/19/19Game #612 PM#12 TennesseeNorth Carolina0-1
5/19/19Game #72:30 PMNorth Carolina#12 Tennessee0-2Tennessee Advances

Regional #4 – Tallahassee, Florida

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #112 PMSouth FloridaSouth Carolina3-2
5/17/19Game #22:30 PMBethune-Cookman#4 Florida State0-8
5/18/19Game #312 PM#4 Florida StateSouth Florida12-15 Innings
5/18/19Game #42:30 PMSouth CarolinaBethune-Cookman10-0Bethune-Cookman Eliminated
5/18/19Game #55 PMSouth CarolinaSouth Florida2-1USF Eliminated / 10 Innings
5/19/19Game #612 PM#4 Florida StateSouth Carolina7-6Florida St. Advances
5/19/19Game #72:30 PMGame 6
Winner
Game 6
Loser
Elimination
Game / If Necessary

Regional #13 – Stillwater, Oklahoma

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/16/19Game #16 PMTulsaArkansas5-0
5/16/19Game #28:30 PMBYU#13 Okla. State1-3
5/17/19Game #31 PM#13 Okla. StateTulsa13-10
5/17/19Game #43:30 PMArkansasBYU3-6Arkansas Eliminated
5/17/19Game #56 PMBYUTulsa4-6BYU Eliminated
5/18/19Game #64 PMTulsa#13 Okla. State1-2Oklahoma State Advances
5/18/19Game #76:30 PMGame 6
Winner
Game 6
Loser
Elimination
Game / If Necessary

Regional #3 – Seattle, Washington

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #17:30 PMSeattle U.Mississippi State3-5
5/17/19Game #210 PMFordham#3 Washington0-2
5/18/19Game #36 PMMississippi State#3 Washington1-6
5/18/19Game #48:30 PMFordhamSeattle U.0-1Fordham Eliminated / 8 Innings
5/18/19Game #511 PMMississippi StateSeattle U.7-3Seattle U. Eliminated
5/19/19Game #69 PM#3 WashingtonMississippi State8-0Washington Advances / No-Hitter
5/19/19Game #711:30 PMGame 6
Winner
Game 6
Loser
Elimination
Game / If Necessary

Regional #14 – Lexington, Kentucky

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #112 PMIllinoisVirginia Tech2-6
5/17/19Game #22:30 PMToledo#14 Kentucky2-7
5/18/19Game #312 PMVirginia Tech#14 Kentucky1-8
5/18/19Game #42:30 PMToledoIllinois0-2Toledo Eliminated
5/18/19Game #55 PMVirginia TechIllinois5-1Illinois Eliminated
5/19/19Game #612 PM#14 KentuckyVirginia Tech11-1Kentucky Advances / 6 Innings
5/19/19Game #72:30 PMGame 6
Winner
Game 6
Loser
Elimination
Game / If Necessary

Regional #6 – Tuscon, Arizona

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #19 PMColorado StateAuburn5-10
5/17/19Game #211:30 PMHarvard#6 Arizona1-5
5/18/19Game #36 PMAuburn#6 Arizona1-2
5/18/19Game #48:30 PMHarvardColorado State0-6Harvard Eliminated
5/18/19Game #511 PMAuburnColorado State8-0CSU Eliminated
5/19/19Game #67 PM#6 ArizonaAuburn12-3Arizona Advances
5/19/19Game #79:30 PMGame 6
Winner
Game 6
Loser
Elimination
Game / If Necessary

Regional #11 – Oxford, Mississippi

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #14:30 PMSE Missouri StateLouisiana2-3
5/17/19Game #27 PMChattanooga#11 Ole Miss0-125 Innings
5/18/19Game #31 PMLouisiana#11 Ole Miss2-0
5/18/19Game #43:30 PMChattanoogaSE Missouri State1-2Chattanooga Eliminated
5/18/19Game #56 PM#11 Ole MissSE Missouri State10-0SEMO Eliminated / 5 Innings
5/19/19Game #63 PM#11 Ole MissLouisiana5-1
5/19/19Game #75:30 PMLouisiana#11 Ole Miss4-5Ole Miss Advances

Regional #7 – Minneapolis, Minnesota

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #17 PMDrakeGeorgia4-68 Innings
5/17/19Game #29:30 PMNorth Dak. St.#7 Minnesota0-3
5/18/19Game #34 PMGeorgia#7 Minnesota1-2
5/18/19Game #46:30 PMNorth Dak. St.Drake0-8NDSU Eliminated / 5 Innings
5/20/19Game #511 AMGeorgiaDrake7-4Drake Eliminated
5/20/19Game #61 PM#7 MinnesotaGeorgia8-1Minnesota Advances
5/20/19Game #73:30 PMGame 6
Winner
Game 6
Loser
Elimination
Game / If Necessary

Regional #10 – Baton Rouge, Louisiana

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #13 PMLouisiana TechTexas Tech0-3
5/17/19Game #25:30 PMMonmouth#10 LSU0-2
5/18/19Game #32 PMTexas Tech#10 LSU4-513 Innings
5/18/19Game #44:30 PMMonmouthLouisiana Tech0-1Monmouth Eliminated
5/18/19Game #57 PMTexas TechLouisiana Tech3-1La. Tech Eliminated
5/19/19Game #64 PM#10 LSUTexas Tech4-5
5/19/19Game #76:30 PMTexas Tech#10 LSU1-5LSU Advances

Regional #2 – Los Angeles, California

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #18:30 PMCal. State FullertonMissouri4-7
5/17/19Game #211 PMWeber State#2 UCLA0-6
5/18/19Game #36 PMMissouri#2 UCLA1-95 Innings
5/18/19Game #48:30 PMWeber StateCal. State Fullerton7-3CSF Eliminated
5/18/19Game #511 PMMissouriWeber State7-0Weber St. Eliminated
5/19/19Game #65 PM#2 UCLAMissouri1-5
5/19/19Game #77:30 PMMissouri#2 UCLA1-13UCLA Advances / 5 Innings

Regional #15 – Ann Arbor, Michigan

DateGameTime
(EST)
Team #1Team #2ScoreNotes
5/17/19Game #12 PMDePaulJames Madison2-5
5/17/19Game #24:30 PMSt. Francis (PA)#15 Michigan0-86 Innings
5/18/19Game #312 PMJames Madison#15 Michigan0-112 Innings
5/18/19Game #42:30 PMSt. Francis (PA)DePaul1-3St. Francis Eliminated
5/18/19Game #55 PMJames MadisonDePaul3-0DePaul Eliminated
5/20/19Game #612 PM#15 MichiganJames Madison0-3
5/20/19Game #72:30 PMJames Madison#15 Michigan2-1James Madison Advances

Super Regionals

The Super Regional round of the 2019 NCAA Division 1 Softball Tournament will be a best of three series between the dates of Thursday, May 23 and Sunday, May 26. The campus sites for each Super Regional will be determined upon completion of the regional round by the NCAA, if needed.

Women’s College World Series

The 2019 Women’s College World Series will take place between Thursday, May 30 and Wednesday, June 5 with every game shown on one of the ESPN family of network channels. All of the games will take place at the ASA Hall of Fame Stadium and OGE Energy Field from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Revisiting the Trends From the Kentucky Derby Points System

Country House with jockey Flavien Prat after winning the 2019 Kentucky Derby (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Revisiting The Trends From The Kentucky Derby Points System

The 2019 Kentucky Derby provided plenty of talking points as Maximum Security crossed the line first, but was subsequently disqualified and placed 17th, which elevated Country House from second to become the winner of the event’s 145th running. Here is a replay of the race below for those who may have not seen it.

This article does not address whether the disqualification was correct, nor does it address the slew of concerns as result of the disqualification related to transparency and consistency from stewards. Those issues deserve a separate discussion some of which have already been rigorously debated on social media. This article is a revisit of one from three years ago that reviewed the trends in the Kentucky Derby. In summary, the article from 2016 basically noted the obvious: favorites, speed, and California based horses were dominating the Kentucky Derby.

For a bit of history, prior to the 2013 Kentucky Derby, entrants were determined by how much purse money they earned in graded stake races regardless of distance, surface, and also included juvenile race earnings. Since 2013, the Kentucky Derby entrants have been determined by how many points a horse totals in the designated races, which focus on longer distance events. The earlier events between September and February have a lower point value assigned to them while the largest point value races are held primarily in March and April. With that context, here are the winners of the last seven years, all under the current Kentucky Derby points system.

YearWinner$2 WinTrack
Condition
Field
Size
Favorite
Finish
2019Country
House
$132.40 Sloppy
(Sealed)
194th
2018Justify$7.80Sloppy
(Sealed)
201st
2017Always
Dreaming
$11.40Wet Fast
(Sealed)
201st
2016Nyquist$6.60Fast201st
2015American
Pharoah
$7.80Fast181st
2014California
Chrome
$7.00Fast191st
2013Orb$12.80Sloppy
(Sealed)
191st

In the first six years showed a parade of favorites and the track condition did not matter. Justify was the only California horse to win the last three years, but he made quite the impression by winning the Triple Crown (Maximum Security was the second favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby).

To keep things in perspective, let’s look at the seven years prior to the introduction of the points system.

YearWinner$2 WinTrack
Condition
Field
Size
Favorite
Finish
2012I’ll Have
Another
$32.60Fast202nd
2011Animal
Kingdom
$43.80Fast198th
2010Super Saver$18.00Sloppy
(Sealed)
206th
2009Mine That
Bird
$103.20Sloppy
(Sealed)
1918th
2008Big Brown$6.80Fast201st
2007Street Sense$11.80Fast201st
2006Barbaro$14.20Fast207th

The previous seven years before the points system show only two winning favorites with another favorite finishing as the runner up. Also, only I’ll Have Another had previously run in California and then won the Derby. It is worth noting that over the last 20 years Santa Anita (California), Oaklawn (Arkansas), and Gulfstream Park (Florida) have had the best success producing Kentucky Derby winners, which is an interesting trend in itself in terms of quality prep races.

Looking at results alone is insufficient to draw conclusions. Let’s now look at the internal fractions to see if there was indeed a shift in how fast the races were being run.

Year1/4
Split
1/2
Split
3/4
Split
Final
Time
Track Winning
Style

201922.3146.621:12.50 2:03.93 Sloppy
(Sealed)
Mid Pack
201822.2445.771:11.01 2:04.20 Sloppy
(Sealed)
Near Lead
201722.7046.531:11.122:03.59Wet Fast
(Sealed)
Near Lead
201622.5845.721:10.402:01.31FastNear Lead
201523.2447.341:11.292:03.02FastNear Lead
201423.0447.371:11.802:03.66FastNear Lead
201322.5745.331:09.802:02.89Sloppy
(Sealed)
Deep
Closer

Based on the seven years of the points system, it is clear that a horse near the lead does quite well. One caveat is that the horses that won these races were the favorites and were considered better than the competition. This could be nothing more than the best horses having a similar style while also being head and shoulders above their peers. Below are the seven years before the start of the points system.

Year1/4
Split
1/2
Split
3/4
Split
Final
Time
Track
Winning
Style
201222.3245.391:09.802:01.83FastMid Pack
201123.2448.631:13.402:02.04FastMid Pack
201022.6346.161:10.582:04.45Sloppy
(Sealed)
Stalker
200922.9847.231:12.092:02.66Sloppy
(Sealed)
Deep
Closer
200823.3047.041:11.142:01.82FastNear Lead
200722.9646.261:11.132:02.17FastDeep
Closer
200622.6346.071:10.882:01.36FastNear Lead

The 2006 – 2012 time frame saw fewer near the lead types winning with a fair distribution between the different running styles. Let’s average the time splits for the two periods for comparison.

Time Frame1/4 Split1/2 Split3/4 SplitFinal Time
2013 – 201922.6746.381:11.132:03.23
2006 – 201222.8746.681:11.292:02.33

In 2015, yours truly theorized that cheap speed (horses who are more adept at shorter distances) were causing the early fractions to be too quick and tiring out more horses, thus leading to more upsets. Trinniberg from the 2012 Derby is an of cited example of a speed horse who entered the Kentucky Derby with little chance of winning. However, the averages say the opposite is happening; the races under the points system are faster, on average. Hmm.

The early half of the race is quicker by about a length, yet speed horses are still winning. Maybe this is indicative of Churchill Downs getting the points system right by allowing the quality speed horses to shine? (Some will say this is true except for Maximum Security after Saturday’s controversial ending, but that is a whole different discussion). For what it’s worth, had Maximum Security not been disqualified, he would have been a gate-to-wire winner, which would have made it six straight years a horse on or near the lead won the Kentucky Derby. As stated earlier, it could be the case that the best horses were accurately made the favorite and all had similar front running styles that were most effective against the competition. Or maybe the points system is working as intended.

Conclusion

The Kentucky Derby is such a unique event to draw any parallels from as each running is different from any other one.
How many horses were setting the pace? Was there any pressure on the leader(s)? How was the track condition? How did the track condition affect the shape of the race? Did one of the speed horses not break well? Was there interference at some point? What about the variation in training methods over the years? Or race-day medication? Security barn regulations? Those are just a small sample of the many questions that can have different answers between time periods or year to year for how each race was run and won. The myriad of factors changing from year to year can also make it nigh impossible to establish legitimate trends though that will not stop some from trying.

It is worth tracking how speed horses fare over the next few runnings to see if this is a legitimate trend. So far, speed has been quite dominant under the points system, but that could easily be an early trend due to the novelty of the system. Perhaps Country House is the start of a mid-pack or closer streak of winners. Furthermore, quite a few trends have been broken in the last 15 years that seemed unlikely such as Justify becoming the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without a start at two. Or Barbaro winning the 2006 Kentucky Derby after a five-week layoff, a feat that had not been achieved for the previous 50 years. Or Big Brown winning the 2008 race from post 20 becoming the first horse to do that since 1929.

The Kentucky Derby is always a spectacle for both casual and long-time observers. 2019 did not disappoint in that regard. Enjoy the rest of the Triple Crown trail (and whatever drama comes along with it)!