Tag Archives: Brogan Roback

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 8

Mark Helfrich and Oregon sit at 2-4 mainly due to a bad defense. Can they turn it around in the second half of the season? (Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images North America)
Mark Helfrich and Oregon sit at 2-4 mainly due to a bad defense. Can they turn it around in the second half of the season? (Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images North America)

Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 8

We are closing in on week eight and there are some big games this week. Miami (FL) is at Virginia Tech, TCU is at #12 West Virginia, #6 Texas A&M travels to face #1 Alabama in the biggest game of the week, #17 Arkansas is at #21 Auburn, #2 Ohio State plays Penn State on the road, and #23 Ole Miss is at #25 LSU.

Those are big games, but we will take a look at some of the games not listed above that could have an impact on week eight and beyond. Note that these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.

1. Oregon at California (10/21 at 10:30 PM) – This game will be nationally televised, but the implications are huge. Oregon is on a four game losing streak and sits at 2-4 overall. They had a bye last week and one can only assume the defense was the focal point (Oregon has given up at least 35 points each game during their losing streak).

California has alternated between wins and losses this year to get to 3-3. Their offense has been very good this year too with Davis Webb at the helm (2,256 yards at 60.8% with 22 touchdowns and 7 interceptions), which presents a great opportunity against Oregon’s porous defense. Oregon’s defense gives up 522 yards per game including 284 yards through the air.

Oregon needs this win more than California, but the road to end the season for both teams is not easy. Oregon faces Arizona State, USC (away), Stanford, Utah (away), and Oregon State (away) after the Cal game. How many wins are there for the Ducks with this defense?

California has USC (away), Washington, Washington State (away), Stanford, and UCLA after playing Oregon. Their schedule is tough as well and a win will help both teams if they want to make a bowl game.

2. Indiana at Northwestern (10/22 at 12 PM) – On paper, Northwestern seems like the favorite given their back-to-back road wins over Iowa and Michigan State. As of this posting, the Wildcats are favored by a point and a half. Indiana is a scrappy team though and they could make things interesting.

The key in this game, and for Northwestern’s offense, is Justin Jackson. He ran for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns (all in the opener) on 83 carries through his first four games for an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Against Iowa and Michigan State, he has rushed for a combined 359 yards and 3 touchdowns on 60 carries for an average of 6 yards per rush.  In turn, he allows the passing game to flourish especially if the ball is headed towards Austin Carr. Carr has 5 touchdowns in the last two games, but he has been producing all season long (at least 5 catches and 73 yards in every game).

For Indiana, this year’s team is different. It is no longer just about out-scoring the opponent and hope the defense can make a stop or two. The defense is a cohesive unit that can consistently play well in 2016. For 2015, the defense gave up 37.6 points per game compared to 25.3 points per game through six games this year. The hiring of Tom Allen has no doubt improved the defense and they will have their hands full with Justin Jackson this week.

Both teams enter this game at 3-3 and it is clear the winner will be in a very good position to make a bowl. However, a loss can be overcome with both teams having 3 winnable games in their final five contests.

3. Akron at Ball State (10/22 at 3 PM) – This is not the biggest game of the week for the MAC. That is listed two slots below, but this is a big game for both teams in their respective division.

Akron is currently a joint-first with Ohio in the MAC East at 2-1 in conference play. They are coming off a shellacking at the hands of the top MAC team Western Michigan 41-0. It was not pretty as the offense put up 283 yards of offense and the defense gave up 585 yards. The offense did not get into Broncos’ territory until late in the first half.

Ball State got their first conference win this year over Buffalo after losses to Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. James Gilbert, who has been good this year, had a monster game with 264 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns on 34 carries. It was his fourth 100 yard rushing game this year and third in a row (at least 2 rushing touchdowns in the last three games as well). It is worth noting that Jarvion Franklin ran for 281 yards and 1 touchdown in Western Michigan’s win over Akron in week 7.

How good is Ball State? How will Akron respond to their drubbing? Those questions will be answered this week and beyond in Ball State’s case. At this point, Akron can only have one more loss prior to their game at Ohio to end the season if they want to have a chance at winning the MAC East. Ball State still has to face Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo this year, so a win may be crucial this week just to try to make a bowl game.

4. Memphis at Navy (10/22 at 3:30 PM) – This is a big AAC West Division tilt. Memphis is 2-0 in the AAC while Navy is 3-0 in conference. Plus, Navy has the win over Houston from their last game so a win here would really help the Midshipmen given their schedule to end the season.

The defense for Memphis has been solid this year giving up 19.3 points per game and 140 yards rushing per game. The latter is more pertinent against the triple option of Navy. Navy’s offense puts up 32.2 points per game and 262.4 yards rushing per game. In last year’s game, Navy put up 374 yards rushing against Memphis, but that offense included Keenan Reynolds and and Chris Swain, both of whom are no longer there.

Memphis had Paxton Lynch in 2015 and now Riley Ferguson has taken over at quarterback. Ferguson has done well throwing for 1,596 yards (65.5%) with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Memphis’ toughest opponent this year has been Ole Miss, a game in which Ferguson threw for 343 yards, but with no touchdowns and three interceptions. If he can continue to be accurate and avoid interceptions, this team has a good chance of winning.

Memphis still has to face Tulsa, SMU, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston to end the season so a win here will help and give them some confidence. Navy will play South Florida, Notre Dame, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, and Army to end the season.

5. Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan (10/22 at 3:30 PM) – Here is another MACtion game, but this one is the marquee matchup this week.

Eastern Michigan has been a surprise this year. They are 5-2 and sit one win away from their first bowl game since 1987. They defeated MAC East contender Ohio on the road last week 27-20. Brogan Roback threw for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions to lead the Eagles.

Western Michigan has been a surprise too, but on a national level. They defeated both Northwestern and Illinois on the road in their first three games. They have looked like the best team in the conference to this point and have a legitimate chance at making a big bowl if they go undefeated and win the MAC Championship. Zach Terrell has been fantastic this year throwing for 1,597 yards with 17 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions. He also has 142 yards on the ground and 5 touchdowns. Jarvion Franklin has been good the last three weeks, which coincides with Jamauri Bogan missing time due to an ankle injury. Franklin has 582 yards and 4 touchdowns on 87 carries the last three games (6.7 yards per carry).

This will be the toughest team Eastern Michigan has faced this year in MAC play (possibly all year if one wants to consider WMU better than Missouri). They will have their hands full, but could keep it interesting. A win for Western Michigan would put them in a commanding position for the MAC West title until their game against Toledo in the season finale.

6. Old Dominion at Western Kentucky (10/22 at 7 PM) – Old Dominion enters this game at 4-2 while Western Kentucky is 4-3. The Monarchs two best opponents so far this year have been Appalachian State and North Carolina State, which ODU lost. Those two games were played on the road and the combined final scores were 80-29. Their other four games have all been 2+ touchdown margin of victories.

As for Western Kentucky, they played #1 Alabama and obviously got crushed, 38-10. However, their other two losses were to Vanderbilt 31-30 in overtime and 55-52 against Louisiana Tech. They have close wins against Middle Tennessee (44-43 in 2 OT last week) and Miami (OH) 31-24.

Old Dominion runs a balanced offense (yardage is 53% passing and 47% rushing). David Washington leads the offense and while his numbers are not impressive, he is efficient. He has thrown for 1,250 yards with 12 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He also has 158 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He completes only 56.4% of his passes, but has only had 1 game with a negative TD to INT ratio (Appalachian State when he threw 1 INT and no touchdowns). The running game will be led by Jeremy Cox (420 yards and 9 touchdowns) and Ray Lawry (373 yards and 3 touchdowns).

Western Kentucky is led by former South Florida quarterback Mike White. He has thrown for 2,098 yards with 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. In two seasons at USF, he threw for 2,722 yards with 11 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. His favorite targets are Taywan Taylor (54 catches for 870 yards and 5 touchdowns) and Nicholas Norris (43 catches for 647 yards and 8 touchdowns).

If Old Dominion’s pass defense, which gives up 224 yards per game,  can stop Western Kentucky’s offense that puts up 372 yards passing per game (and 526 yards of total offense per game), they will have a chance. The more time they run off the clock, the better chance they have of winning this game.

With both teams in the thick of the C-USA East division race, this game will be important. ODU has yet to face FlU and will also play Marshall and Southern Miss. Western Kentucky will also play FIU and Marshall, but have one loss already in C-USA.

Check back next week for the week nine edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Five Predictions For The Mid-American Conference In 2016

Drew Hare against Boston College in 2015. NIU has been to six straight MAC Championship Games (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images North America)
Drew Hare against Boston College in 2015. NIU has been to six straight MAC Championship Games (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images North America)

Five Predictions For The Mid-American Conference In 2016

The 2016 College Football season is right around the corner and that means prediction time. Below are five predictions for Mid-American Conference for the 2016 season. Some predictions will be right, some predictions will be wrong, and some will be spectacularly awful by the end of the season.

There is one change to the teams in the MAC and that is the loss of Massachusetts as they are now an Independent. That evens out the teams to six in both the East and West. The six East teams are Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami (OH), and Ohio. The six West teams are Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, and Western Michigan.

Here are five predictions for the Mid-American Conference in 2016:

1. Northern Illinois will make it 7 straight MAC Title Game Appearances – The Huskies have been a dominant force in the MAC and MAC West by competing in the MAC Championship Game each year since 2010. They have won three of those (2011, 2012, and 2014) and look poised to reach the title game once again in 2016.

For NIU, they will have two main challengers in Western Michigan and Toledo. The Huskies face Western Michigan on the road and play Toledo off campus in Chicago on a Wednesday night at US Cellular Field. The Huskies welcome back seven starters on offense including quarterback Drew Hare (1,962 yards, 63.8%, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions), running back Joel Bouagnon (1,285 yards and 18 touchdowns), and receiver Kenny Galloday (73 catches for 1,129 yards and 10 touchdowns). The defense will bring back six starters from a unit that allowed 27.6 points and 418 yards per game. That unit should have a solid year.

Toledo is coming off a 10-2 season, but is introducing a new coach in Jason Candle and only have 11 starters back (seven on offense and four on defense). Western Michigan seems like the biggest threat because they have eight starters returning on offense (36 points and 491 yards per game in 2015) as well as five on defense (28.3 points and 414 yards per game). The biggest factor for WMU is they face both NIU and Toledo at home, which may give them the slight edge. Still, NIU seems to have a knack for getting it done and that is why they are predicted to make the MAC Championship. Again.

2. Western Michigan will defeat at least one Big Ten opponent in 2016 – The Broncos will be facing two Big Ten foes in the first three weeks of the season when they travel to both Northwestern (Sep. 3) and Illinois (Sep. 17). The first week of the season is always interesting because teams are not in peak form, which leads to upsets (see Northwestern v. Stanford in 2015’s opening week).

The Illinois game looks like the better opportunity for an upset, at least on paper. Lovie Smith is entering his first season as a college coach, but he is taking over a team that has 11 starters back (seven on offense and four on defense) as well as implementing new schemes. The Broncos are entering their fourth year of head coach PJ Fleck‘s schemes.

The Broncos have a history of playing Big Ten teams really tough as well. They lost 23-20 to Illinois in 2011, lost 28-23 to Minnesota in 2012, lost 26-13 to Michigan State in 2013, lost to Purdue 43-34 in 2014, and lost to Michigan State 37-24 last year. All of those games were on the road except last year against the Spartans. Western Michigan is poised for a potentially big year and defeating one (or possibly both) Big Ten schools is not out of the question.

3. The East will be mayhem – It is hard to confidently make a prediction as to which team will win the MAC East in 2016. Bowling Green has a new coach (Mike Jinks) while also losing their quarterback, running back, and three of their top four receivers. Ohio is returning 12 starters (six on each side), but need to find a suitable quarterback and running back combination. Akron has only seven total starters returning in 2016 and lost six of their top seven tacklers on defense as well as their top running back and second and third leading receivers.

Buffalo will be in their second year under Lance Leipold, but have only three starters back on offense. The defense should be solid with eight starters back, but the loss of their top quarterback, top running back, and top two receivers will hurt. They could pull a surprise in 2016 though with a solid defense leading the way. Kent State went only 3-9 in 2015, but they return an incredible 18 starters in 2016 with ten on offense and eight on defense. In addition, they are in year four under Paul Haynes and could make serious strides. Then there is Miami (OH) who also returns ten starters on offense and six on defense. They are in the third year of Chuck Martin‘s reign and could also pull some upsets.

The MAC East has a lot of variables that will produce plenty of action. Sure, Bowling Green may be the favorite, but they are far from a cinch to win the division. Expect some upsets and chaos from the East.

4. Kent State will reach six wins – The Golden Flashes have 18 starters returning with ten on offense and eight on defense. The offense will need to make a massive jump in production if they are to make this prediction come true.

Kent State put up an anemic 13.1 points and 271 yards per game in 2015 despite having eight starters returning. The rush offense was okay putting up 133 yards per game, but the passing attack was horrendous gaining just 138 yards per game. The running game is likely to be anchored by Nick Holley who put up 133 yards in three games last year before an injury, but was more effective in 2014 gaining an average of 4.1 yards per carry. The receiving group has their top nine back and no matter who wins the quarterback job, the passing game will be better.

The defense gave up 26.1 points and 350 yards per game in 2015, which are very respectable numbers in this conference. There are eight starters back for this unit and it should be one of the best in the conference, which will help if the offense struggles again this year.

The Golden Flashes have a non-conference schedule of Penn State and Alabama on the road while playing FCS foes North Carolina A&T and Monmouth at home. In conference, they do draw Western Michigan and Northern Illinois from the West with both games at home, which will likely result in two losses. Their games against Akron (home), Buffalo (road), Miami (OH) (road), Ohio (home), and Bowling Green (away) in the East will dictate their ability to reach the six win plateau. However, the East is up for grabs and if the offense improves, it could be a solid improvement this season.

5. Eastern Michigan will end their four straight years of double digit losses (and not finish last in the West) – Eastern Michigan has not been a very good football program, but not for lack of trying. They went 4-8 in 2007 and 3-9 in 2008 before going with Ron English as their coach for 2009. It did not get better as they went 0-12 in 2009 and then 2-10 in 2010. They improved to an excellent (for this program) 6-6 in 2011, but did not go to a bowl game. The Eagles slipped back to 2-10 in both 2012 and 2013 with English being let go during the 2013 season. 2014 saw EMU go 2-10 and they struggled again in 2015 as they went 1-11. 2016 will be year three under Chris Creighton.

They return 8 starters from an offense that improved 10 points per contest in 2015. They went from 15.2 points and 290 yards per game in 2014 to 25.4 and 380 yards per game in 2015. Quarterback Brogan Roback should improve on his numbers of 2,304 yards (61%) with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The running game and receivers will also benefit from the entire offensive line returning.

The defense has been terrible the last three seasons for Eastern Michigan. Their best effort was in 2014 when they allowed 40.9 points and 499 yards per game. Eight starters are back from last year’s group that allowed 42.1 points and 519 yards per game. Even an improvement to 2012’s bad numbers of 37.6 points and 479 yards per game would go a long way.

The schedule is favorable for Eastern Michigan to win at least three games. They open with Mississippi Valley State at home before road games against Missouri and Charlotte (another winnable game). They close with Wyoming at home. They have to face some tough teams (Bowling Green on the road, Toledo at home, Ohio on the road, Western Michigan on the road, and Northern Illinois at home), but they have a couple winnable conference games. They will face Miami (OH) at home and Ball State on the road, which could both be wins and improve. The Eagles end the season with Central Michigan at home. The Eagles have a decent schedule to navigate their way to possibly four wins (or even five with an upset or two). That would be a very solid improvement for this program.

The Prediction Schedule

With the MAC predictions above, there are now predictions for four conferences in the books. Below are the predictions completed and which conference is next.

July 17 – FBS Independents

July 17 – Sun Belt

July 23 – C-USA

July 24 – MAC

July 30 – American Athletic

July 31 – Mountain West

August 7 – Big 12

August 13 – Atlantic Coast

August 14 – Pac-12

August 20 – Big Ten

August 27 – SEC