2015 Ogden Phipps Stakes Preview

2015 Ogden Phipps Stakes Preview

The Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes is part of the Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In series. The winner of the Ogden Phipps will have a guaranteed spot in the starting gate for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

A compact field of six horses will run in this race headlined by Untapable. The field of six will be going one mile and one sixteenth over the main track at Belmont, which will be around one turn. The purse for this race is $1,000,000.

Post time for the Ogden Phipps is scheduled for 1:52 PM Eastern Time and is carded as the fifth of 13 races on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Free past performances can be found here.

Analysis

1. Rosalind (12-1 Morning Line) – She has run six straight races on turf coming into the one mile dirt event. He last dirt race was the 2014 Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks won by Untapable where Rosalind finished fourth by 11 lengths that day. Her overall record on dirt is 0 for 4 with three third place finishes. This is a very precarious spot for her and she will be up against it given her dirt record.

2. Wedding Toast (4-1 ML) – She exits the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes here at Belmont where she won by 4 lengths over fellow entrants Princess Violet and House Rules. She is a versatile horse that can either stalk right off the lead or press a slow pace, which makes her dangerous. In addition, she loves Belmont with four starts, three wins, and a second. She is a viable alternative if you are looking to beat the extremely heavy favorite.

3. House Rules (12-1 ML) – As mentioned above, she ran third in the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes but she did win the Grade 3 Top Flight Handicap at Aqueduct on April 11. Her form is quite interesting in the last 10 races as she has usually alternated wins in every other start (exception was a two-race winning streak in January and February of this year). Her Belmont record is uninspiring (4 starts with only a third place finish) and she just seems a cut below the best in here.

4. Untapable (2-5 ML) – She was a very dominant three year old filly in 2014 winning races with ease against her own sex. She finished 5th in the Grade 1 Haskell against boys, but she came back to end the season with victories in the Grade 1 Cotillion and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her 2015 campaign started with a second place finish by half a length in the Grade 2 Azeri and then she rebounded to win the Grade 1 Apple Blossom by 2 1/2 lengths in her second start. She is unraced since April 10, but she is squarely the one to beat.

5. Princess Violet (8-1 ML) – She was second last out in the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes, but previously won the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland by half a length two starts back. She has been in good form since her 7th place finish in the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga in 2014. She has run first or second in six straight races and in five races here at Belmont she has won three races and finished second the other two. She is an interesting longshot here in a small field.

6. Shayjolie (20-1 ML) – The longest shot in the race comes out the Grade 2 Ruffian like several others in this race. She was fourth that day after sitting a perfect stalking trip. Given the competition here, she figures to be up against once more.

Selections

This race appears to not have a lot of value in it, but we will take a slight upset on top. #2 Wedding Toast appears to be the horse that will control the race, as there is hardly any speed in this race. #4 Untapable should be a few lengths behind her and will definitely be the one to fend off. For a bit of a price play underneath, we will go with #5 Princess Violet who may be able to round out the exacta if one of the top two choices fails to fire.

Top selection – #2 Wedding Toast

2nd selection – #4 Untapable

3rd selection – #5 Princess Violet

Check back on Saturday for a recap of the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps.

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