This is the third post in a series leading up to the 2014 World Cup to be held in Brazil. The first post can be found here and the second post here.
In the first post of this series I posted the odds for each team to win the World Cup prior to the draw (odds were taken from 5Dimes). For a refresher, here is that table:
| Team | Odds |
| Brazil | +300 |
| Germany | +560 |
| Argentina | +660 |
| Spain | +680 |
| Belgium | +1650 |
| Netherlands | +2150 |
| Colombia | +2350 |
| Italy | +2450 |
| England | +2550 |
| Uruguay | +2850 |
| France | +3250 |
| Portugal | +3450 |
| Chile | +4450 |
| Russia | +10500 |
| Switzerland | +14500 |
| Ghana | +15000 |
| Croatia | +16000 |
| Mexico | +16500 |
| Japan | +17000 |
| USA | +18000 |
| Ivory Coast | +21000 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | +22500 |
| Ecuador | +24000 |
| Nigeria | +29000 |
| Greece | +35000 |
| South Korea | +50000 |
| Cameroon | +70000 |
| Australia | +70000 |
| Costa Rica | +225000 |
| Iran | +250000 |
| Honduras | +250000 |
| Algeria | +250000 |
As you can see, the top 4 favorites were Brazil (+300), Germany (+560), Argentina (+660), and Spain (+680). All other teams were at +1650 or higher. Now let’s see how the draw affected those odds (again odds from 5Dimes):
| Brazil | +330 |
| Argentina | +490 |
| Germany | +610 |
| Spain | +775 |
| Belgium | +1550 |
| Colombia | +2150 |
| France | +2250 |
| Netherlands | +2850 |
| England | +2850 |
| Italy | +2850 |
| Uruguay | +2950 |
| Portugal | +3700 |
| Chile | +5350 |
| Russia | +8875 |
| Switzerland | +12500 |
| Ecuador | +13500 |
| Mexico | +15000 |
| Ivory Coast | +16500 |
| Japan | +18500 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | +23500 |
| USA | +25000 |
| Ghana | +25000 |
| Croatia | +26500 |
| Nigeria | +28500 |
| Greece | +34000 |
| South Korea | +48500 |
| Australia | +80500 |
| Cameroon | +100000 |
| Costa Rica | +250000 |
| Iran | +250000 |
| Honduras | +250000 |
| Algeria | +250000 |
Brazil’s odds went up to +330 despite the opponents they drew in their group. The slight bump in odds has entirely to do with their possible Round of 16 opponent which will almost certainly be Netherlands, Spain, or Chile. Argentina, which was already a favorite to win, dropped from +660 to +490. This is for good reason too. They got drawn with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, and Nigeria.
Below is a table that shows each team’s odd before and after the draw. Also is a column for the odds change that occurred.
| Team | Prior Draw Odds | Post Draw Odds | Odds Change | |
| Brazil | +300 | +330 | +30 | |
| Germany | +560 | +610 | +50 | |
| Argentina | +660 | +490 | -170 | |
| Spain | +680 | +775 | +95 | |
| Belgium | +1650 | +1550 | -100 | |
| Netherlands | +2150 | +2850 | +700 | |
| Colombia | +2350 | +2150 | -200 | |
| Italy | +2450 | +2850 | +400 | |
| England | +2550 | +2850 | +300 | |
| Uruguay | +2850 | +2950 | +100 | |
| France | +3250 | +2250 | -1000 | |
| Portugal | +3450 | +3700 | +250 | |
| Chile | +4450 | +5350 | +900 | |
| Russia | +10500 | +8875 | -1625 | |
| Switzerland | +14500 | +12500 | -2000 | |
| Ghana | +15000 | +25000 | +10000 | |
| Croatia | +16000 | +26500 | +10500 | |
| Mexico | +16500 | +15000 | -1500 | |
| Japan | +17000 | +18500 | +1500 | |
| USA | +18000 | +25000 | +7000 | |
| Ivory Coast | +21000 | +16500 | -4500 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | +22500 | +23500 | +1000 | |
| Ecuador | +24000 | +13500 | -10500 | |
| Nigeria | +29000 | +28500 | -500 | |
| Greece | +35000 | +34000 | -1000 | |
| South Korea | +50000 | +48500 | -1500 | |
| Cameroon | +70000 | +100000 | +30000 | |
| Australia | +70000 | +80500 | +10500 | |
| Costa Rica | +225000 | +250000 | +25000 | |
| Iran | +250000 | +250000 | 0 | |
| Honduras | +250000 | +250000 | 0 | |
| Algeria | +250000 | +250000 | 0 |
Odds to Win Group
Here I will list each teams odds to win their respective group. As before, these odds are from 5Dimes.
Group A
| Brazil | -350 |
| Mexico | +650 |
| Croatia | +875 |
| Cameroon | +2150 |
Group B
| Spain | -130 |
| Netherlands | +200 |
| Chile | +475 |
| Australia | +2700 |
Group C
| Colombia | -135 |
| Japan | +350 |
| Ivory Coast | +460 |
| Greece | +700 |
Group D
| Italy | +160 |
| Uruguay | +195 |
| England | +215 |
| Costa Rica | +4000 |
Group E
| France | -145 |
| Switzerland | +310 |
| Ecuador | +340 |
| Honduras | +2800 |
Group F
| Argentina | -430 |
| Bosnia | +595 |
| Nigeria | +830 |
| Iran | +3000 |
Group G
| Germany | -180 |
| Portugal | +260 |
| Ghana | +1050 |
| USA | +1075 |
Group H
| Belgium | -180 |
| Russia | +230 |
| South Korea | +750 |
| Algeria | +2500 |
Super-Duper Early Predictions
I will pick the finish of each group as I see them right now. These are subject to change many times over until the start of the World Cup.
Group A
1st – Brazil
2nd – Croatia
3rd – Mexico
4th – Cameroon
Group B
1st – Spain
2nd – Chile
3rd – Netherlands
4th – Australia
Group C
1st – Colombia
2nd – Ivory Coast
3rd – Japan
4th – Greece
Group D
1st – Italy
2nd – Uruguay
3rd – England
4th – Costa Rica
Group E
1st – Colombia
2nd – Switzerland
3rd – France
4th – Honduras
Group F
1st – Argentina
2nd – Nigeria
3rd – Bosnia and Herzegovina
4th – Iran
Group G
1st – Germany
2nd – Ghana
3rd – Portugal
4th – United States
Group H
1st – Russia
2nd – Belgium
3rd – South Korea
4th – Algeria
I will skip to the Semi-final match ups where I have Brazil vs Germany in one and Italy vs Argentina in the other. I like Brazil and Italy to meet p in the final with Italy coming out on top. Again this is subject to change (and probably will as we learn more about each team’s squad).
Be sure to check back often for part 4 and other blog posts!