A week after the Mountain West prevented more defections to the Pac-12, both conferences were back on the realignment recruiting trail but with different objectives. The Mountain West has added UTEP from Conference USA starting with the 2026-27 academic year while Gonzaga will move from the West Coast Conference to the Pac-12. Both conferences still need an additional full, football-playing member to maintain the minimum FBS requirement of 8. The Mountain West is going for sensible realignment options to ensure they have enough full members while the Pac-12 is looking toward the TV revenue aspect and an emphasis on basketball.
Every additional move these conferences make continues to end with the same question: why didn’t the Mountain West and Pac-12 just merge and bring in Gonzaga to offset Hawaii’s football-only membership? It’s the same question we asked in the September 26 article on the initial realignment moves. It was logical to bring the conferences together and skip all the unnecessary lawsuits that will drag on for years. Unfortunately, this is realignment where logic is skipped in favor of trying to get that small extra slice of revenue.
What’s Next for the Mountain West?
The Mountain West currently sits at 7 full members. A report by Ross Dellenger says that the Mountain West is in talks with Tarleton State from the WAC (United Athletic Conference in football) as its next full member. There are also ongoing full membership talks with Texas State but talks between the Bobcats and MW have stalled. There’s also the MAC duo of Northern Illinois and Toledo as football-only affiliates. It appears that Tarleton State is a backup plan because the Texas State talks fell through (for now?) and Tarleton might be used as a travel partner for UTEP. The idea of two MAC schools joining the Mountain West makes no sense for a conference needing full members but realignment being illogical, this has a way higher chance of happening than people want to admit (including yours truly). New Mexico State is also a possibility for the Mountain West if other realignment targets fall through.
Some may not like the idea of Tarleton State joining the Mountain West over other FCS programs like Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State but Tarleton hasn’t shown any hesitation in moving up. With all the realignment over the past few years, none of those 4 have made a move for various reasons so it’s easy to see why the MW might opt for an eager school as opposed to a reticent school. That said, nothing is stopping those schools from moving up at this point (besides an institutional will and invitation) now that the Mountain West won’t be poached any further by the Pac-12.
What's Next for the Pac-12?
The Pac-12 currently has 8 full members but Gonzaga doesn't have a football team so the conference needs one more full, football-playing member. If Texas State doesn't join the Pac-12, there aren't any obvious choices with UTEP off the board. Perhaps they will look to Sacramento State? Or will they try to re-engage the American Athletic Conference teams like Memphis and Tulane now that Gonzaga is committed? Or will an even wilder card be played for the Pac-12?
What's Next for C-USA and the Sun Belt?
We'll start with the Sun Belt because they don't have as much to worry about and are likely to go after a current C-USA member in the event Texas State leaves for the Mountain West or Pac-12. Being completely biased, Kennesaw State makes sense from a geographical perspective but they leave a lot to be desired on the football field. Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky are both natural fits for the Sun Belt. It may be moot to decide between MTSU or WKU because the American Athletic would likely call James Madison up if the AAC is poached by the Pac-12.
For C-USA, they are in an odd spot with 11 members scheduled for the 2026-27 academic year but that number can easily fluctuate. Will more schools leave? That answer depends on what happens with the American, Mountain West, Pac-12, and Sun Belt. Let's say at least three members leave for other conferences to put C-USA at 8 schools. That's still enough to maintain FBS membership and they could also go back to the FCS well for more teams... but then it becomes a question of which FCS teams. Would the quartet (or some combination) of Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State move to C-USA? Wouldn't it make more sense to leave now for the Mountain West (assuming they receive an invite)? C-USA will be in an uncomfortable spot if three members leave but it won't be in desperation mode. However, if more than 3 leave and they can't find willing FCS teams, then it becomes a real concern.
Summary
It is obvious from this post and the previous article that a lot can happen with realignment in a short period. Even in these hypotheticals, it gets complicated quickly to the point that prognosticating the FCS situation is a fool's errand (see: West Texas A&M to the FCS). While 2PAC (Oregon State and Washington State) wanted to try and retain the "Power 5" status the old Pac-12 had, the options of adding even the best Mountain West teams were never going to help them regain that status. It's not even certain that the new Pac-12 will be attractive enough to eclipse the American's TV rights deal worth $7 million per school annually whether they merged with the Mountain West or forged their own realignment rebuild. However, a merger of the Mountain West, Pac-12, and adding Gonzaga would have resulted in a larger deal than the separate deals the two conferences will now negotiate in the future. It still made the most sense for the Mountain West and Pac-12 to merge for the time being to prevent dilution of the separate conferences but that ship has sailed and now both are scrambling for the same potential members. It remains to be seen how far down the FCS/D2 chain this realignment shuffle will go.
Photo Courtesy of UTEP Athletics