2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf – 1 Mile Turf (Race 7, Post Time: 2:25 Pacific Time)
1. All Cash (30-1) – He comes into this race winless in 4 starts. He did run a decent 4th place effort last out in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland, a race that was moved to the Polytrack. Despite the strong Turf pedigree, it is tough to endorse him in this spot.
2. Giovanni Boldini (7-2) – He sports a strong Turf pedigree, has run in Ireland, and is from the barn of Aidan O’Brien. Surprisingly, he has only run on turf once in his 3 career starts, a Group 1 race in which he finished 3rd. He also attracts the services of Ryan Moore, who was riding Wilshire Boulevard prior to this race. Lots to like here.
3. Got Shades (30-1) – He ran 3rd here at Santa Anita on October 6 in the Zuma Beach Stakes. He failed to finish better despite having a good pace ahead of him. He does get Gary Stevens aboard. If you are looking for good value in the 3rd and 4th spots of your exotics, this is a good horse to consider.
4. Outstrip (GB) (4-1) – Another European invader, this one from Great Britain. He has run very well in all 4 of his career starts, never finishing worse than 3rd. Also note the Group 1 and two Group 2 races he has ran in the past 3 races. I really like his chances in this race.
5. Bobby’s Kitten (5-2) – The top American horse in this event, he ran a huge race last out in the Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont. It also doesn’t hurt that he is out of the World’s hottest turf sire, Kitten’s Joy. I respect his chances a lot, but the short price of 5/2 isn’t going to help get any value in single race wagers. He is a must use on top in multi-race wagers.
6. Home School (IRE) (30-1) – He has run 2 OK races in his first two starts in North America, but he will need to show a lot more to get a piece of this race. He did have a sharp workout on 10/25 over the Santa Anita turf course.
7. Aotearoa (12-1) – He won the Zuma Beach Stakes last time out here at Santa Anita. That was his first start on turf and first start going two turns. He has worked decently since that race, but he will need to continue to improve to have a chance. I will play him in the 3rd and 4th slots.
8. Bon Accord (20-1) – Last time out he finished 3rd in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland, a race that was his first going two turns. He ran nicely that day, but he will need to show more improvement if he wants a slice of the purse.
9. Wilshire Boulevard (IRE) (8-1) – His 7 career starts are tied for most in the field with Home School and this horse has improved every start. His last race at Longchamp in France was a Group 1 and he finished 4th beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. He is trained by Aidan O’Brien and he looks to offer the best value of the European horses.
10. Ontology (30-1) – Another horse who comes in here winless in his career. In five starts, he has finished 2nd three times, including in the Oak Tree Juvenile Stakes at Del Mar on turf. Still, his speed figures are low and he will have to make a substantial improvement. Pass on his chances.
11. Poker Player (12-1) – He is 2 for 3 to start his career and has made a nice improvement each time. He won the aforementioned Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland, a race in which he beat Bashart, Bon Accord, and All Cash. I think he is a cut below the top horses, but a must use underneath.
12. Shamshon (IRE) (12-1) – The 4th and final European import, he appears to be the least likely of those four to win. He was 5th in a Group 2 at Newbury in Great Britain last out, a race that was run over a soft turf course. He is 2 for 2 on good-to-firm and a firm turf course. Offers good value, especially underneath.
13. Bashart (6-1) – He drew the dreaded outside post for this and I think that will ultimately hurt his chances of winning. His last 2 races in the Bourbon and With Anticipation were impressive and if he can get good position he has a chance. I respect his chances, but I am going to play against him from the Win angle.
Bets
My top pick is #4 Outstrip (GB) and I will do a Win-Place-Show bet on him. I will also play a 4-9 with 2-4-5-7-9-11-12-13 exacta, as well as the reverse of that bet.