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Horse Racing

2015 Metropolitan Handicap Preview

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2015 Metropolitan Handicap Preview

The 2015 Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series gets underway in the United States on Saturday, June 6 with the Metropolitan Handicap, or as it is better known, the Met Mile.

The Met Mile will be run at one mile around one turn at Belmont Park. A field of 10 horses have been entered in this $1,250,000 race. The Grade 1 event is carded as the 9th race on the Belmont Stakes undercard with an approximate post time of 4:49 PM Eastern Time.

The winner of the Met Mile will have a guaranteed spot in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile that is to be held at Keeneland on October 30 and 31 later this year. Free past performances for the Met Mile can be found here.

Analysis

1. Private Zone (4-1 ML) – He has been very good since late 2014. After fourth place finish in his turf debut, he won the Grade 1 Vosburgh here at Belmont, was third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and won the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct by 5 lengths. In 2015, he just missed winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap and then easily won the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day. From this spot at the rail, he will be gunning for the lead and saying catch me if you can. He is two for two at Belmont.

2. Bay of Plenty (20-1 ML) – After breaking his maiden in March 2014 by 7 1/4 lengths, he won a first level allowance race here at Belmont in May 2014 by 9 1/4 lengths. He came back in October to clear the second level allowance with a 2 3/4 lengths win. He ran second in the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap before a six month break between races. He came back to win a third level allowance race and he has plenty of speed to burn. However, there is plenty of other speed for him to contend with here. It is worth noting that he is 3 for 3 at Belmont.

3. Noble Moon (30-1 ML) – He has seen plenty of graded stakes action since his two year campaign in 2013. He has struggled in nearly all of those graded stakes races including several large defeats behind some horses entered in here. He will have pace to run at in this spot, but here appears to be up against it here.

4. Tonalist (5-2 ML) – It was 364 days ago that Tonalist was winning the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes en route to denying California Chrome the Triple Crown. Since then he has two victories in five subsequent races including the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and his latest race in the Grade 3 Westchester. It is clear that he likes the Belmont surface with a perfect 4 for 4 record. He should have plenty of pace to run at and is a deserving favorite.

5. Tamarkuz (15-1 ML) – He has been racing in Dubai since 2014. His last four races have all resulted in victories including two Group 3 races and one Group 2 race. He will probably be racing midpack in this race and should be in a good spot. It is tough to get a read on him with his international form and is probably a cut below the best.

6. Wicked Strong (6-1 ML) – He was part of the 2014 Triple Crown chase with a duo of fourth place finishes in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby and Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. He ran well at Saratoga before he clipped heels in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup to end his 2014 campaign. His two starts in 2015 have left a lot to be desired with a fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap and Grade 3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He will be able to come off the pace, but the question is whether he is good enough.

7. Bayern (7-2 ML) – After an incredible three year old year season capped off with a win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2014, he ran a dud to start 2015. He broke poorly in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes and was no factor during the running of the race. He has worked well since then and had only 1 gate work in the immediate aftermath of the terrible seasonal debut. If he breaks well, he will have plenty of company on the lead.

8. Pants On Fire (15-1 ML) – He ran third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in 2014 before finishing third in the ungraded Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream. In 2015, he won his seasonal debut in the ungraded Sir Shackleton before finishing third behind Private Zone in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes. He too will be coming from behind and the ceiling appears to be an underneath finish in the trifecta or superfecta, but he will have good value.

9. Honor Code (6-1 ML) – He has run only one bad race in his career, but that just happened to be his latest race. On the Kentucky Oaks undercard, he ran fifth in the Grade 2 Alysheba and did not seem to fire with a moderate pace at best. He will be coming from out of the clouds here and he should have enough speed to set it up for him. His best value would be at no less than 5-1 given the large amount of ground he needs to cover.

10. Kobe’s Back (20-1 ML) – He came back from a 7 month break to finish second in the Grade 2 San Carlos in March before shipping East and running in the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland. In that race, he was able to come from off the pace to win by three quarters of a length. He has not run since then and is another that will be coming from way out of it. He seems to be an underneath horse at best.

Selections

This race is full of speed and closers so it should be easy to decipher, right? Well, not quite. #4 Tonalist is the morning line favorite and loves Belmont in addition to having the right running style. Beyond him, however, it is not clear. #8 Pants On Fire is an intriguing long shot to pick up the pieces and #9 Honor Code could bounce back from his poor effort last time out to possibly win or at least hit the exacta. #1 Private Zone has shown the ability to hang on for the win after setting a hot pace and could hang around to hit the board if he is passed. The wildcard in all this is #7 Bayern. If he breaks well it could be tough to beat him, but if he fails to break again he will probably not make an impact.

Top selection – #4 Tonalist

2nd selection – #9 Honor Code

3rd selection – #8 Pants On Fire

4th selection – #1 Private Zone

Check back on Saturday evening to see a recap of the Grade 1 Met Mile.

Horse Racing

Breeders’ Cup Pre-Entries Announced, Wagering Menu Set

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The Breeders’ Cup announced the pre-entries for 2014 Breeders’ Cup event to be held October 31 and November 1 at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. There will be 13 races over the two days next weekend.

Entries were taken on Monday, but the pre-entries were not released until Wednesday. 201 individual horses were entered for the prestigious year-end event and that does not include occasions when horses were cross-entered for multiple races.

Horses will be entered in only one race on Monday, October 27 with a maximum of two also-eligibles allowed per race. Every race with the exception of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, which has a maximum number of 12 horses allowed to enter, has a maximum number of 14 entries.

All the pre-entries can be found here at the official Breeders’ Cup website. Past performances are also included.

The wagering menu for both days was also announced. Friday’s wagering menu is below. Clicking on the pictures will enlarge them.

Friday BC Wagering Menu

Saturday’s wagering menu is below as well.

Saturay BC Wagering Menu

 

Friday’s action can be seen live on NBC Sports Network starting at 4 PM Eastern Time. Saturday’s coverage starts at 3:30 PM Eastern Time on NBC Sports Network and continues on that channel until 8 PM Eastern Time. The Breeders’ Cup Classic will be shown live on NBC with the 8 to 9 PM Eastern time slot.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Classic

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2013 Breeders Cup Classic – 1 1/4 Miles Dirt (Race 12, Post Time: 5:35 Pacific Time)

1. Last Gunfighter (20-1) – We last saw him in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup where he finished 5th beaten 10 1/4 lengths. That day he finished behind Ron The Greek, Palace Malice, and Flat Out, all of whom are entered in this race. That was his first try at the 10 furlong distance he will see again on Saturday. It is tough for me to endorse here.

2. Paynter (12-1) – It is wonderful to see Paynter compete at this level given how serious his health problems were. He could not hold on to win the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap losing by 1/2 of a length. He tried going cross country in the Grade 1 Woodward, but finished last of 5. He last raced here at Santa Anita where he finished 2nd by 4 1/4 lengths. Sentimentally, I like Paynter, but when it comes to wagering, I will make him beat me.

3. Planteur (IRE) – This guy has plenty of class coming into this race having run in plenty of Group 1’s and doing very well in several. He has raced in France, Hong Kong, Dubai, and now the United States. This will be his first start on traditional dirt. He has run well in the Dubai World Cup finishing 3rd twice. It is hard to like this guy from a win standpoint.

4. Moreno (15-1) – It took him until his 10th start to break his maiden, but he has been very good since then. He won the Grade 2 Dwyer by 7 lengths, finished 3rd in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, got nosed out and finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Travers, then finished 2nd in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. All 4 of those races took place against fellow 3 year olds. He will also have company on the lead from Fort Larned and Game on Dude. Tough to endorse if he wants to take them gate-to-wire.

5. Declaration of War (10-1) – This fella has been wonderful over Europe – on grass. 6 straight Group 1 starts and he has 2 wins to show for that. Distance is not a problem as he won the Group 1 Juddmonte International going 1 5/16 miles at York. I cannot help but think of another Aidan O’Brien trainee by the name of George Washington who also tried the Classic after a similar campaign. I think he handles dirt and I think he can be a factor. I will use him on top.

6. Mucho Macho Man (5-1) – He ran in this race last year, finishing 2nd by half of a length to Fort Larned. His latest race was superb in the Grade 1 Awesome Again. He sat off the pace and made a bold move on the turn to take the lead heading into the stretch. He did not relinquish that lead as he won by 4 1/2 widening lengths. He’s my top pick to win this race.

7. Fort Larned (6-1) – He won this race last year in gate-to-wire fashion. 2013 got off to a poor start when he stumbled and dropped his jockey in the Grade 2 Gulstream Park Handicap. Then he finished 5th of 10 in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. He bounced back in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster winning by 6 1/4 lengths. He did win the Homecoming Classic last race going gate-to-wire. I do not like his chances to repeat this year because he will not get away with an easy lead.

8. Palace Malice (10-1) – He has been a very good horse since his Kentucky Derby Pace meltdown. He won the Grade 1 Belmont, won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and finished 4th by 3/4 of a length in the Grade 1 Travers (arguably he was the best horse in that race). His last race was his first against older horses and he finished 2nd by 6 3/4 lengths to Ron The Greek. He should rate off the speed and I give him a big shot at winning this race. Must use especially if he is near his 10-1 morning line.

9. Game On Dude (8-5) – He has been perfect this year. He has won all 5 races this year with ease and won each impressively. He raced in the Breeders Cup Classic last year where he disappointed as the 6-5 favorite and finished 7th beaten 15 lengths. There is no doubt he can win this race, but I am not sure he will be able to do so with so much pace pressure from Moreno and Fort Larned. He can win, but I am going to bet he doesn’t.

10. Will Take Charge (12-1) – He has done very well since his Triple Crown debacle. He has 2 wins and a second, all of those races against only 3 year olds. This race will be his first race against older horses. His Grade 1 Travers win was very impressive and also came at today’s distance of 10 furlongs. I am not going to leave him off my tickets.

11. Ron The Greek (8-1) – According to reports, he will scratch from the race due to a quarter crack.

12. Flat Out (12-1) – This will be his 3rd straight year participating in the Breeders Cup Classic. He was 5th in 2011 and 3rd in 2012. This guy has danced every dance and has been very respectable. He should get the pace he needs to close into, but based on his races he does not seem to be as good as others in here. Maybe he can get up for 3rd or 4th.

Bets

I really like #6 Mucho Macho Man and will key in on him in this race. I will wheel him up and down in the exacta with the 5-8-10. As a saver, I will put a little money on #5 Declaration of War and possibly #8 Palace Malice if his odds are good enough.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Mile

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2013 Breeders Cup Mile – 1 Mile Turf (Race 11, Post Time: 4:40 Pacific Time)

1. No Jet Lag (8-1) – He started his career in Great Britain before coming to the U.S. in August. He won an Optional Claimer by 1 1/2 lengths before stepping up big time in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile in his last race. That was a very impressive race, but I have to wonder if that race will cause him to bounce here. I will use him underneath in the exotics.

2. Silentio (20-1) – He has done very well since taking on stakes company in December 2012. His only poor race was when he traveled to Keeneland and took on Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile. Last race he finished behind both Obviously and He Be Fire N Ice in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile. I’m not sure he is talented enough to win against these, but at 20-1 he definitely adds value to the exotics.

3. Silver Max (5-1) – He has really turned into a nice horse this year. He has reeled of 3 straight wins in graded stakes competition including the Grade 1 Shadwell Mile where he beat Wise Dan. We know he will be on the lead, but will he stay there throughout? I say no as Obviously will be there every step of the way to test him.

4. Obviously (IRE) (10-1) – He ran in this race last year’s edition of this race finishing 3rd beaten just 2 lengths by Wise Dan. He has won the Grade 2 American Handicap, the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, and the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile. His latest race was a 4th place finish in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile. Given the fellow pacesetter in here is to his left, I have a hard time seeing him winning this race.

5. Olympic Glory (IRE) (4-1) – This 3 Year old Colt is making his first start in the U.S. 3 races back in the Group 1 Jacques Le Marois he lost by a nose to Moonlight Cloud. He followed that race up with a 2nd place in another Group 1 at Longchamp. His latest race might have been the most impressive performance. He won the Group 1 QE II Mile at Ascot by 3 1/4 lengths earning a 127 Racing Post Rating. He would be the standout favorite in this race if not for one Wise Dan. This is my pick to upset Wise Dan.

6. Bright Thought (20-1) – He has not raced since March 16 in the Grade 2 San Luis Ray at 1 1/2 miles. He won that day on the lead and if he wants to do it in the same fashion he will have plenty of company. He has plenty of works leading up to this, but I don’t think he will be ready nor classy enough to beat these horses. Pass.

7. He Be Fire N Ice (15-1) – He has been a monster since moving back to the turf course. In six turf routes this year, he has yet to finish out of the exacta. His last 2 races have both been in Grade 2 company and he has finished 2nd both times by half of a length. He should get a good pace to run at, but I still think he is a notch below the best. I think he is a must use underneath especially at these odds.

8. Wise Dan (1-1) – We all know the accolades: defending Horse of the Year and defending Champion of this race. His only blemish was his latest start in which the race was moved from the turf course to polytrack. Still he finished 2nd and will now get a great setup in this race. He is the one to beat in this and I will certainly try to. Still he is a must use in every spot.

9. Cristoforo Colombo (15-1) – He will be making his first start here in the U.S. It is difficult to say how good he really is especially at route distances. He only has 1 race beyond 6 furlongs, a 5th place finish in a Group 1 stake at Newmarket. Hard to endorse this guy when he couldn’t beat lesser in overnight stakes. Pass.

10. Za Approval (15-1) – He has only run 2 bad turf races, his debut and an Optional Claiming event on yielding turf. He exits the Grade 3 Knickerbocker which he won by 1 1/4 lengths. That race is one furlong longer than he will run in this race. He is going to get a good trip, probably near Wise Dan. He loves this distance; from 10 starts he has 4 wins and 4 second place finishes. I like this guy to a small upset chance, but I will definitely be using him underneath.

Bets

 There are only 2 horses that I see who can win and those are #5 Olympic Glory and #8 Wise Dan. I will key them in exacta’s and trifectas with 1-2-7-10. I will do a saver exacta with the 1-2-7-10 on top as well.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Sprint

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2013 Breeders Cup Sprint – 6 Furlongs Dirt (Race 10, Post Time: 4:01 Pacific Time)

1. Justin Phillip (4-1) – He ran in this race last year finishing 5th by 4 lengths on a track that was anything but kind to the closers. He comes into this race off an eventful 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Vosbrugh. He was bumped repeatedly in the stretch and only lost by a neck. Unfortunately for him, he is drawn on the rail which means he will have traffic issues if he is too far back. Other than that, I think he will run huge. He is my top pick.

2. The Lumber Guy (12-1) – He was 2nd in this race last year to Trinneberg by 3/4 of a length. His form since that race has been horrendous. He has finished 7th three times and his one good race was in a New York State Bred stake at Saratoga. It is difficult to endorse him here based on his performances this year.

3. Gentlemen’s Bet (8-1) – He most recently ran in the Grade 3 Phoenix off a 2 month layoff. He finished 4th only beaten 1 3/4 lengths after closing into a moderate pace. He should be tighter off that race and he has the tactical speed necessary to sit off a hot pace. I think he is a must use on top.

4. Majestic Stride (20-1) – He has won 2 races in a row, but those were in Allowance and Optional Claiming events. He now takes a massive jump into a Grade 1 and he will have plenty of company on the front end. Pass.

5. Sum of the Parts (12-1) – He ran in this race last year and finished 4th by 3 lengths after fighting for the lead. His last race was the Grade Phoenix at Keeneland which was his first start in nearly 4 months. He went gate-to-wire in that race and earned a 100 Beyer number for the effort. Looking through his past performances he has only won in a single fashion: gate-to-wire. I do not see him doing that on Saturday.

6. Bahamian Squall (10-1) –  Yet another horse who is coming coming out of the Vosburgh. He finished 5th beaten 6 lengths. Prior to that, he earned a 104 Beyer number for his 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt. I don’t like his chances to win this event, but he can be a part of the exotics.

7. Private Zone (3-1) – He ran in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen finishing 9th of 13 beaten by 4 3/4 lengths. He did not return for another 5 months but delivered back-to-back wins leading into this event. Both of those were in gate-to-wire fashion and the latest race was in the aforementioned Vosburgh. Given the amount of speed in this race, I do not see him winning and cannot endorse him at a short price. He can hang on for a piece though.

8. Fast Bullet (6-1) – He ran in this event last year finishing 6th beaten 5 1/2 lengths. Note that was only his 3rd career start and first in stakes competition. We last saw him on August 31 in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga where he dueled for the lead and then faltered badly. He finished 7th beaten 15 1/2 lengths. He may not have cared for the slop in the race. Despite the immense talent he has, I cannot endorse especially since it looks like he will be part of the pace.

9. Secret Circle (4-1) – This guy is a former Breeders Cup winner. He won the short lived Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint in 2011 at Churchill Downs. He has never ran out of the exacta in 8 starts and has 6 wins in his career. Last out he was making his first start in a year and a half in an Optional Claiming event and beat a weaker field of 5. He has shown the ability to rate of the speed and that will be a huge asset here. Must use on top.

10. Wine Police (30-1) – He went to the bench in December 2011 before returning in August of this year. He won his comeback race by 1 1/2 lengths and stepped up to the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien Stakes where he ran a respectable 4th. His last race he went to Remington where he won an overnight stake. He looks to be in way too deep here and I will pass on him.

11. Trinniberg (8-1) – Last year he won this race on a speed biased track by 3/4 of a length at odds of 13-1. Since then he has failed to win a race and has been disappointing. His best effort was 2 races ago when he finished 2nd to Bahamian Squall at Calder in a Grade 2 event. His last race was a 7th place finish by 22 1/4 lengths here at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Sprint Championship. I see him struggling again this race. Pass.

12. Laugh Track (20-1) – His last race was in the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland where he ran behind Sum of the Parts. That was his first race in 4 months so he should be fitter this time around. He only has 1 start on dirt, a 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Alysheba at Churchill, but the pedigree says dirt should not be a problem. One thing he does have in his favor is his ability to close ground. Unless there is a speed bias again this year, I like his chances here. For me, he is a must use.

Bets

 I like #1 Justin Phillip so I will wheel him in exacta’s with the 3-6-9-12. I also like #12 Laugh Track enough to put Win-Place-Show on him.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Turf

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2013 Breeders Cup Turf – 1 1/2 Miles Turf (Race 9, Post Time: 3:22 Pacific Time)

1. Vagabond Shoes (IRE) (15-1) – He has really turned the corner since May of this year. In 3 graded stakes, he has not finished worse than 2nd and won the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap. He has never raced as far as this 1 1/2 mile journey and I think he needs to step it up big time to be considered a legitimate threat.

2. Teaks North (30-1) – He has run some big races in the past that has led to 2 Grade 1 Wins. He has raced at this distance 3 times and has failed to hit the board in any of those instances. There is no doubt he will be forwardly placed in this event, but he will need to dig deep to hang on. Pass on him here.

3. Twilight Eclipse (20-1) – He has run in 4 straight Grade 1 races with mixed results. He finished 2nd twice and also finished 5th twice. He does have a good record at 1 1/2 miles; from 4 starts he has 2 wins and a second place. While I do not think he will win, he can provide big value in the 3rd and 4th spot of the exotics.

4. Little Mike (6-1) – He won this race last year at 17-1. He started the year in Dubai where he failed to make an impact in two Group 1 races. He returned to the U.S. where he ran two subpar races in the Grade 1 United Nations (4th by 3 1/4 as the favorite) and Grade 1 Arlington Million (6th by 4 lengths). He returned to form last out in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational where he won by a nose over Big Blue Kitten. Based on the last race he appears to be back in form. You cannot leave this guy out of the top spot.

5. Skyring (30-1) – If this race was at Pimlico, I would definitely consider him. However, this race is a Santa Anita and he does not do well against the top horses in this class. Look for him early, but don’t hold your breath for him at the wire with the leaders.

6. Tale of a Champion (30-1) – He ran in the Turf Sprint last year where he finished 8th. He ran a huge race in the Grade 2 Charlie Whitingham Handicap where he won by a length at 10-1. His latest race in the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup was poor to say the least. He was beaten 9 1/2 lengths, finishing 10th of 12. He has not raced this far in his career and it is tough to see him upsetting this field.

7. The Fugue (GB) (3-1) – She is the lone filly in this field and that will not be a problem for her. She has won multiple Group 1 races in Europe and raced in the 2012 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She finished 3rd that day by 1 1/4. She comes into this race with a 2 race win streak (both Group 1 races) and is the European standout for this field. Do not leave her out.

8. Point of Entry (4-1) – What a great story this would be if he won. He suffered a leg fracture in one of his hind legs in June and has not raced since. He has trained well leading up to the race, but as always, fitness is a concern off the layoff. He raced in this event last year where he finished 2nd by a half-length to Little Mike. He is the best American horse in the event and if he’s ready, he will have a big say. I am going to play against him here because of the layoff.

9. Indy Point (ARG) (9-2) – He started his career in Argentina and won 2 Group 1 stakes on both Dirt and Turf. His first start in the U.S. was very good as he won the Wickerr Stakes at Del Mar. He then tried the Grade 1 Arlington Million but failed badly finishing last of 13. Last out he ran in and won the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup at 1 1/4 miles. I am going to take a stand against him after the performance he had against top Turf competition in the Million.

10. Big Blue Kitten (6-1) – He has had a really good 2013 with 4 wins from 7 starts, never missing the board, and producing over $900,000 in earnings. He just missed out on a third straight Grade 1 race last out when he finished 2nd by a nose to Little Mike in the Turf Classic Invitational. He will be closing in the stretch and he should have the pace to run at. I really like his chances.

11. Magician (IRE) (8-1) – He has not raced since a last place finish in the Group 1 St. James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot in June. Prior to that race, he won a Group 1 in Ireland going a mile and also won a Group 3 in Great Britain going 1 5/16 Miles. While he has never raced this far, his pedigree says that will not be an issue. Based on his comments line, it appears he will be forwardly placed. I don’t doubt his talent, I just think others are more likely here.

12. Real Solution (8-1) – Started his career in Italy where he won 3 of his 5 starts. He has run very well in his 4 U.S. starts which includes three straight Grade 1 Races. He won the Arlington Million after a disqualification to The Apache and then followed that up with a 3rd place in the Turf Classic Invitational behind Little Mike and Big Blue Kitten. I think he is most likley to finish underneath in the exotics.

Bets

I will play the 4-7-10 on top over the 4-8-10-11-12 in the straight race exotics. To me, the winner will come from the 4, 7, or 10 and those are the ones that I will use in multi-race exotics.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile

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2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile – 1 1/16 Miles Dirt (Race 8, Post Time: 2:43 Pacific Time)

1. Smarty’s Echo (20-1) – The son of Smarty Jones has yet to run on dirt, but that should not be an issue. He ran a good 2nd last out in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. He managed to get the lead in the stretch before finishing 2 3/4 lengths behind We Miss Artie who is also in this race. He did start from post 11 in that race and now moves to the fence. I don’t fancy his chances to win, but with E.T. Baird in the reins, I think he has a good shot at adding great value to the underneath spots.

2. Dance With Fate (8-1) – Here is a guy who is getting a lot of attention in this race. He was 2nd last out in the Grade 1 Front Runner here at Santa Anita. That was his first start around 2 turns and there is reason to believe he will improve. He should get a good trip behind the front runners and his workouts have been very good leading up to this. He is a must use on top.

3. Mexikoma (12-1) – Here is a perplexing horse. He debut was on turf at Saratoga where he was 7th of 9 horses. Then he goes to Delaware and simply crushes a Maiden Special Weight field by 14 3/4 lengths. What we don’t know is how classy this guy is. The only reason why I am using this guy on top is because of his sire Birdstone.

4. New Year’s Day (8-1) – He has not been seen since August 31 when he won a MSW at Del Mar by 1 3/4 lengths. We don’t know how good he is, but he has been working very well here at Santa Anita. I’m not about to let a Bob Baffert trained horse beat me here, especially at good odds.

5. Bond Holder (8-1) – He won the aforementioned Grade 1 Front Runner here at Santa Anita. In fact, the broke his maiden in that race. He will be coming off the pace yet again and should have enough speed in front of him. All that said, I don’t think he is as good as others in here, but he must be used underneath.

6. Tap It Rich (6-1) – He has run one race and he won that race in an emphatic fashion. He spotted the field 10 lengths at the start before a strong late kick saw him win by 4 1/4 lengths. That race was at a mile and he is working very well since then. Do not sell his chances short.

7. Cleburne (12-1) – He broke the maiden in his first career start going a mile on Turf at Ellis Park. He followed that up by winning the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs on dirt. He will be coming from off the pace today and should get a nice pace ahead of him. Note he does have 2 workouts here at Santa Anita in preparation for this event. I do not like his chances in this race to win.

8. Conquest Titan (30-1) – His lone start on dirt was his debut where he finished a well beaten 4th. He broke his maiden in an overnight stake at Woodbine going 7 Furlongs on Polytrack. His latest was a 5th place finish in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. I cannot endorse him here, but I will put money on him only because of his sire, Birdstone.

9. Rum Point (30-1) – He broke his maiden 2nd time out at Del Mar going 5.5 furlongs. In 2 follow up races against Grade 1 competition he did not make an impact finishing 9th of 11 in the Del Mar Futurity and 4th of 12 in the Breeders Futurity. He will need to improve big time to make an impact here. Pass.

10. We Miss Artie (8-1) – He broke his maiden over turf and then last out he won the Breeders Futurity by 2 3/4 lengths. His figures are not as good as others in this race, but his last 2 works over this track have been sensational. Yet another horse that could win this race.

11. Medal Count (20-1) – He broke his maiden in his first start going a mile then finished 5th beaten 2 1/4 lengths in the Grade 3 Bourbon. He does not appear as good as some in here and I will side against his chances here.

12. Diamond Bachelor (12-1) – He has started 3 times in his career and all 3 races have been on turf. He won the first 2 races before finishing 2nd last out in the Zuma Beach Stakes here at Santa Anita. It is interesting that he will make his first dirt start in this spot, but his pedigree says he will not mind it. I don’t like the outside draw but I will use him underneath hoping he takes to the surface and adds value to the exotics.

13. Havana (5-2) – In 2 starts this guy has been very, very impressive. He broke his maiden first out while earning a Beyer number of 102. He followed that up with a gate-to-wire win in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont earning a 93 Beyer. The outside post does him no favors and he will have to be tactical from here. A bigger concern for me is the last race where he nearly lost a 4 1/2 length lead in the stretch. He can certainly win, but I will play others with more value.

14. Strong Mandate (6-1) – He broke his maiden 2nd time out at Saratoga winning by 4 1/2 lengths. He followed that up with a smashing performance in the Grade 1 Hopeful winning by 9 3/4 lengths in the slop. His last race was very poor. He was wide, but ended up finishing 7th of 9 beaten 10 1/4 lengths in the Grade 1 Champagne. Given the fact he has another wide draw and his 6-1 morning line, I will play against him.

Bets

This is a very deep race and I see at least 5 horses who can win. In multi-race exotics I will use 2-3-4-6-10 and try to beat #13 Havana. The horses I will use underneath are the 1-5-12. I will put Win-Place-Show money on both #3 Mexikoma and #8 Conquest Titan.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint

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2013 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint – 6.5 Furlongs Turf (Race 6, Post Time: 2:05 Pacific Time)

1. Jeranimo (12-1) – Here is a very classy horse who finally won his second Grade 1 this past July in the Eddie Read Stakes at Del Mar. He is known for being a turf router so it is a bit surprising to see him in this spot. Also keep in mind that he does not have a trip over this downhill turf course. He is a very good horse, but I do not think this is the right place for him. I will pass on his win chances.

2. Rock Me Baby (30-1) – In his last race he ran 7th beaten only 2 lengths in the Grade 3 Eddie D stakes here at Santa Anita. He does have 3 starts over this downhill turf course with a win, a second, and the aforementioned 7th place finish. This guy has been very competitive in Allowance and Cal-Bred races, but this is a whole different ball game. Pass.

3. Chips All In (5-1) – He won the Grade 3 Eddie D. Stakes here at Santa Anita by a nose over Boat trip and continued to show his affinity for the downhill turf course. He has won 2 of his 3 career starts over the course and finished 2nd in the other race. I’m a bit worried that he does not have the same amount of class as some in this field, but you cannot ignore him.

4. Reenesgotzip (5-1) – She is the first of two females to take on the boys in this race. She ran in this race last year finishing 3rd after sitting off the leaders. In her two starts this year she has ran off in both races while winning with ease. One of the races was the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap. I am expecting her to go to lead and hold on for as long as she can. I am going to bet that she will hang on. She is a must use in the win spot.

5. Caracortado (8-1) – This guy is tough to get a handle on. He made his first start in 20 months in the Grade 3 Eddie D Stakes and he ran well finishing 4th only beaten 3/4 of a length. Given that he ran so well, will he repeat that effort or will he bounce of such a big race? His workouts suggest he will run well again and he is a classy horse. My gut tells me to pass on him winning, but I will include him in the exotics.

6. Boat Trip (8-1) – He broke his maiden over the downhill turf course and his latest race had him finishing 2nd to Chips All In in the Eddie D. We know what this guy will do and that is take back and make one big run. He should have the pace to close into as well. I cannot discount this guy from winning.

7. Tightend Touchdown (12-1) – He has been racing on the East Coast in mostly claiming and optional claiming events until the last few races. He has participated in 4 straight stakes races including two Grade 3 events. He has 1 win and 3 seconds from those 4 stake races. He will be on the lead and he will have plenty of company. I do not like his chances of winning here. Pass.

8. Handsome Mike (30-1) – He has made 2 starts since late August and both of those races were poor to say the least. He got crushed in the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien finishing 10th of 12 and then finished last of 10 in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. He does have a win on the downhill turf course, but he looks way out of his league in this race.

9. Capo Bastone (8-1) – He was last seen on August 24th when he came from the clouds to win the Grade 1 Kings Bishop at 28-1. He has never ran on turf, but is certainly bred to like it. I think this guy is better suited as a one turn horse, but this is an odd spot to place a horse for their first turf start. I am going to lean against him.

10. Havelock (10-1) – He ran in the 2011 edition of this race at Churchill when he finished last of 14. He’s had an odd road to the Breeders Cup this year as he started his year in the U.S. and then went overseas where he failed to make any impact in two Group 1 races. He returned to the U.S. and raced in the Grade 3 Woodford at Keeneland where he came from last to win by 2 lengths. He will have plenty of pace to run at the only question is will he be able to get going in time. If he is double digit odds, he may be worth another look.

11. Spring to the Sky (30-1) – He ran in the Grade 3 Woodford where he pressed the blazing pace and then weakened to 3rd beaten 2 1/4 lengths. He will probably employ the same strategy and if he does he will probably suffer the same fate. Pass on him.

12. Mizdirection (4-1) – She is the other female taking on the boys. She won this race last year here at Santa Anita coming off a 5 month layoff. I am willing to put a line through her last race in the Grade 1 Just A Game at Belmont. She is better suited to this Santa Anita downhill turf course where she has only recorded 5 wins from 5 career starts. She is a tactical horse that can adapt to any pace scenario. She is the one to beat here. Leave her out at your own peril.

13. Dimension (GB) (12-1) – He started his career in Great Britain racing in Stakes Handicaps. Since arriving in the U.S. in October 2012, he has raced 7 times and has only won once. His best game is sprinting on the grass, but he figures to be on an extremely hot pace. Pass on his chances here.

14. Unbridled’s Note (8-1) – He also ran in the 2012 edition of this race at Santa Anita. He went off as the 9/2 favorite and finished 2nd by a length to Mizdirection. He used the Eddie D as a prep race in 2012 (finished 1st) and did so again this year. He finished 3rd this time around by half a length. He should be coming off the pace and will have plenty of pace ahead of him. I like this guy as a long shot possibility.

Bets

With such a deep field here I will have to key in on a few horses for the top spot. I will use the 4-12-14 on top in exactas with the 3-4-6-10-12-14. If I were forced to choose only 1 horse in this race I would have to take the chalk and #12 Mizdirection. She has a knack for winning on this downhill turf course.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

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2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint – 7 Furlongs Dirt (Race 6, Post Time: 1:21 Pacific Time)

1. Renee’s Titan (30-1) – It is very surprising to see her in this spot. She is making her 2nd start off a 5 month layoff and her last start was down the hill on the Santa Anita turf course in an Optional Claiming race. She looks completely overmatched in this spot and I cannot endorse under any circumstances.

2. Book Review (6-1) – This filly ran a very nice 2nd in her last outing in the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga. She ran behind Dance To Bristol who is also in this race. She hasn’t raced since August 23, but she has done well off the layoff in the past. Expect her to be rolling late and try to nab them at the wire. Strong chance.

3. Starship Truffles (15-1) – She was an upset winner of the Grade 1 Princess Rooney Handicap at Calder back in early July. In her 2 starts since that race she has not run very well, with a 6th place finish in the Grade 1 Ballerina and then a 3rd place finish in an overnight stake at Gulfstream. I’ll pass on her in this spot.

4. Dance Card (8-1) – Her last race was her 1st start in 10 months and she ran an good 3rd in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom behind Cluster of Stars and Dance To Bristol, the latter is in this race. She should be much fitter in this race, but I think she likes route races better than sprints. I will side against her chances in this race.

5. Teddy’s Promise (6-1) – She took part in last year’s running of this race finishing a well beaten 8th of 10. She follows a similar path as last year where she will be making her 2nd start off a nearly 3 month layoff. She won her last race with ease in an Overnight Stake here at Santa Anita. I’m not sold on her sticking around at the end of this race.

6. Ismene (20-1) – This filly has never raced in graded stakes competition, but she has done very well in Cal-Bred races and an overnight stakes race. She will probably be on the lead along with the horse to her inside. This is a huge step up in class and I am going to pass on her winning this race.

7.  Summer Applause (12-1) – She has been running in Graded Stakes races going a route of ground, but is now shortening up to 7 furlongs. She will be off the pace in this race and that might not be a bad thing if the track is playing fair and if the pace is robust. I don’t like her chances to win this race, but I can see her finishing in one of the underneath spots for the exotics.

8. Dance To Bristol (5-1) – This ultra-consistent filly is one of the favorites to win this race. She won 7 races in a row before her last race in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom where she was 2nd by 5 lengths. She has the perfect running style to win races like this and 5 for 5 in the exacta at this distance of 7 furlongs. She is my pick to win this race.

9. Judy The Beauty (6-1) – She has been a very nice filly so far in her career. She has won in the U.S., France, and Canada and won on both turf and synthetic racing surfaces. She is winless from 5 starts on dirt, but she has finished 2nd all five times. She should be coming off the pace and has been working lights out for this race. I think she is a legitimate contender, but I am concerned she will not have the same late kick on a conventional dirt track that she does on synthetic.

10. Great Hot (BRZ) (20-1) – She ran 2nd behind fellow rival Teddy’s Promise in her last race and previously finished 8th when racing against males in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes at Del Mar. Given her recent races, she is not on the same level as these horses. I will pass on her.

11. Groupie Doll (5-2) – She won the 2012 version of this race and did so in style by 4 1/2 lengths. She has only run 3 times this year with 1 win and 2 third place finishes. She has not been the same horse this year as she was in 2012, but she has been heavily supported at the windows (Odd on favorite in all 3 races). I am concerned about her form this year and she will be one of the favorites, if not the outright favorite. I will try and beat her in the win angle, but she is a must use underneath.

12. Sweet Lulu (8-1) – She is the most inexperienced horse in the field with only 5 career starts. She has won 4 of those races and finished 2nd in the other. 2 starts ago she won the 7 Furlong, Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga and then finished 2nd in the 8.5 furlong, Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx. She has drawn the furthest post and she will be forwardly placed which hurts her. I think she is very talented, but I will take a stand against her to win.

Bets

I really like #8 Dance To Bristol here and I will bet her in this race to Win-Place-Show here. I will single her in several multi-race tickets, but I will use the 2-9-11 on some saver tickets.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf

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2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf – 1 1/4 Miles Turf (Race 5, Post Time: 12:43 Pacific Time)

1. Dank (GB) (5-2) – Her last race in the Grade 1 Beverly D was spectacular and that is why she is the morning line favorite for this race. She absolutely flew by leaders in the stretch to win by an impressive 4 1/4 lengths. She should get another fantastic trip in this race and is the one to beat.

2. Romantica (GB) (6-1) – She has spent her entire career in France and has 4 wins from 10 starts. She is a Group 1 winner in France as 2 races back she beat 5 others to win the Darley Prix Jean Romanet. She loves this distance of 10 Furlongs as she has 3 wins and a second from 4 starts. She also sports a couple of wins over firm turf. She has the looks of a strong upset possibility in this race.

3. Tiz Flirtatious (7-2) – Of the North American based horses, I think she has the best chance at winning. She is spectacular form having won 4 of her 5 starts this year and she absolutely loves the Santa Anita turf course, also having 4 wins from 5 starts. She is working lights out in the morning and will have a big say in this race. Must use on top.

4. Alterite (FR) (10-1) – Since her arrival in the U.S. she has been very impressive. She won her 1st start in the Grade 1 Garden City, then followed that up with a 2nd place finish by a neck in the Grade 1 QE II at Keeneland. She has only 1 start at this distance, a 2nd place finish by a nose in a Group 1 race in France. She’s an interesting long shot in this race who can definitely add value to the exotics.

5. Lady of Shamrock (20-1) – She participated in this race last year where she finished 5th beaten 2 1/2 lengths. Since then she has raced 6 six times this year and won 1 time via disqualification. She has run well in defeat this year, but I she needs to step up her game if she wants to compete with this field.

6. Marketing Mix (7-2) – She ran against Dank in the Beverly D where she finished 4th by 5 3/4 lengths. She followed that race up with a 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive in which she lost by a head to Tiz Flirtatious. She should get a good trip in this race and she has been in the exacta 5 times in 6 starts at this distance. After watching her Beverly D again, I was disappointed that she did not finish better in that race. I do not like her value on Saturday against these horses. I will limit her to underneath in the exotics.

7. Laughing (IRE) (8-1) – She has been on a roll this year with her 4 for 4 record, all of those in Graded Stakes company (2 Grade 1’s, a Grade 2, and a Grade 3). We know what she is going to do and that is go to lead and try to slow them down. And to be honest, it just might work as I do not see any other horse that will go to lead. She might just be able to steal this race on the front end. Don’t sell short from the win angle.

8. Emollient (12-1) – This gal has had an interesting year. She won on dirt, Polytrack, and Turf along with 3 Grade 1 races. Her last race was in the Grade 1 Spinster over Polytrack where she came from well off the pace to run by all her rivals. She does have a win at this distance, but I am not sure where she is going to be placed. She has tactical speed, but will it be used properly? I’m not sold on her chances against this salty group.

9. Qushchi (GB) (20-1) – She ran 4th behind last time out in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational. The horse she was following that day? Laughing who is also in this race. I think she wants more distance than the 10 furlongs she is getting today and I do not think she will do enough to contend. Pass.

10. Kitten’s Dumplings (10-1) – Last time out she beat fellow rival Alterite in the Grade 1 QE II at Keeneland. This will be her 1st start against older horses and her 1st start at a mile and a quarter. I do not like her chances in this race.

Bets

Depending on which horse has the better odds, I will play either #2 Romantica or #7 Laughing. I will also use both of those horses and wheel them up and down in exactas with the 1-3-4-6.