2013 Breeders Cup Sprint – 6 Furlongs Dirt (Race 10, Post Time: 4:01 Pacific Time)
1. Justin Phillip (4-1) – He ran in this race last year finishing 5th by 4 lengths on a track that was anything but kind to the closers. He comes into this race off an eventful 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Vosbrugh. He was bumped repeatedly in the stretch and only lost by a neck. Unfortunately for him, he is drawn on the rail which means he will have traffic issues if he is too far back. Other than that, I think he will run huge. He is my top pick.
2. The Lumber Guy (12-1) – He was 2nd in this race last year to Trinneberg by 3/4 of a length. His form since that race has been horrendous. He has finished 7th three times and his one good race was in a New York State Bred stake at Saratoga. It is difficult to endorse him here based on his performances this year.
3. Gentlemen’s Bet (8-1) – He most recently ran in the Grade 3 Phoenix off a 2 month layoff. He finished 4th only beaten 1 3/4 lengths after closing into a moderate pace. He should be tighter off that race and he has the tactical speed necessary to sit off a hot pace. I think he is a must use on top.
4. Majestic Stride (20-1) – He has won 2 races in a row, but those were in Allowance and Optional Claiming events. He now takes a massive jump into a Grade 1 and he will have plenty of company on the front end. Pass.
5. Sum of the Parts (12-1) – He ran in this race last year and finished 4th by 3 lengths after fighting for the lead. His last race was the Grade Phoenix at Keeneland which was his first start in nearly 4 months. He went gate-to-wire in that race and earned a 100 Beyer number for the effort. Looking through his past performances he has only won in a single fashion: gate-to-wire. I do not see him doing that on Saturday.
6. Bahamian Squall (10-1) – Yet another horse who is coming coming out of the Vosburgh. He finished 5th beaten 6 lengths. Prior to that, he earned a 104 Beyer number for his 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt. I don’t like his chances to win this event, but he can be a part of the exotics.
7. Private Zone (3-1) – He ran in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen finishing 9th of 13 beaten by 4 3/4 lengths. He did not return for another 5 months but delivered back-to-back wins leading into this event. Both of those were in gate-to-wire fashion and the latest race was in the aforementioned Vosburgh. Given the amount of speed in this race, I do not see him winning and cannot endorse him at a short price. He can hang on for a piece though.
8. Fast Bullet (6-1) – He ran in this event last year finishing 6th beaten 5 1/2 lengths. Note that was only his 3rd career start and first in stakes competition. We last saw him on August 31 in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga where he dueled for the lead and then faltered badly. He finished 7th beaten 15 1/2 lengths. He may not have cared for the slop in the race. Despite the immense talent he has, I cannot endorse especially since it looks like he will be part of the pace.
9. Secret Circle (4-1) – This guy is a former Breeders Cup winner. He won the short lived Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint in 2011 at Churchill Downs. He has never ran out of the exacta in 8 starts and has 6 wins in his career. Last out he was making his first start in a year and a half in an Optional Claiming event and beat a weaker field of 5. He has shown the ability to rate of the speed and that will be a huge asset here. Must use on top.
10. Wine Police (30-1) – He went to the bench in December 2011 before returning in August of this year. He won his comeback race by 1 1/2 lengths and stepped up to the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien Stakes where he ran a respectable 4th. His last race he went to Remington where he won an overnight stake. He looks to be in way too deep here and I will pass on him.
11. Trinniberg (8-1) – Last year he won this race on a speed biased track by 3/4 of a length at odds of 13-1. Since then he has failed to win a race and has been disappointing. His best effort was 2 races ago when he finished 2nd to Bahamian Squall at Calder in a Grade 2 event. His last race was a 7th place finish by 22 1/4 lengths here at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Sprint Championship. I see him struggling again this race. Pass.
12. Laugh Track (20-1) – His last race was in the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland where he ran behind Sum of the Parts. That was his first race in 4 months so he should be fitter this time around. He only has 1 start on dirt, a 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Alysheba at Churchill, but the pedigree says dirt should not be a problem. One thing he does have in his favor is his ability to close ground. Unless there is a speed bias again this year, I like his chances here. For me, he is a must use.
I like #1 Justin Phillip so I will wheel him in exacta’s with the 3-6-9-12. I also like #12 Laugh Track enough to put Win-Place-Show on him.