2013 Breeders Cup Mile – 1 Mile Turf (Race 11, Post Time: 4:40 Pacific Time)
1. No Jet Lag (8-1) – He started his career in Great Britain before coming to the U.S. in August. He won an Optional Claimer by 1 1/2 lengths before stepping up big time in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile in his last race. That was a very impressive race, but I have to wonder if that race will cause him to bounce here. I will use him underneath in the exotics.
2. Silentio (20-1) – He has done very well since taking on stakes company in December 2012. His only poor race was when he traveled to Keeneland and took on Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile. Last race he finished behind both Obviously and He Be Fire N Ice in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile. I’m not sure he is talented enough to win against these, but at 20-1 he definitely adds value to the exotics.
3. Silver Max (5-1) – He has really turned into a nice horse this year. He has reeled of 3 straight wins in graded stakes competition including the Grade 1 Shadwell Mile where he beat Wise Dan. We know he will be on the lead, but will he stay there throughout? I say no as Obviously will be there every step of the way to test him.
4. Obviously (IRE) (10-1) – He ran in this race last year’s edition of this race finishing 3rd beaten just 2 lengths by Wise Dan. He has won the Grade 2 American Handicap, the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, and the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile. His latest race was a 4th place finish in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile. Given the fellow pacesetter in here is to his left, I have a hard time seeing him winning this race.
5. Olympic Glory (IRE) (4-1) – This 3 Year old Colt is making his first start in the U.S. 3 races back in the Group 1 Jacques Le Marois he lost by a nose to Moonlight Cloud. He followed that race up with a 2nd place in another Group 1 at Longchamp. His latest race might have been the most impressive performance. He won the Group 1 QE II Mile at Ascot by 3 1/4 lengths earning a 127 Racing Post Rating. He would be the standout favorite in this race if not for one Wise Dan. This is my pick to upset Wise Dan.
6. Bright Thought (20-1) – He has not raced since March 16 in the Grade 2 San Luis Ray at 1 1/2 miles. He won that day on the lead and if he wants to do it in the same fashion he will have plenty of company. He has plenty of works leading up to this, but I don’t think he will be ready nor classy enough to beat these horses. Pass.
7. He Be Fire N Ice (15-1) – He has been a monster since moving back to the turf course. In six turf routes this year, he has yet to finish out of the exacta. His last 2 races have both been in Grade 2 company and he has finished 2nd both times by half of a length. He should get a good pace to run at, but I still think he is a notch below the best. I think he is a must use underneath especially at these odds.
8. Wise Dan (1-1) – We all know the accolades: defending Horse of the Year and defending Champion of this race. His only blemish was his latest start in which the race was moved from the turf course to polytrack. Still he finished 2nd and will now get a great setup in this race. He is the one to beat in this and I will certainly try to. Still he is a must use in every spot.
9. Cristoforo Colombo (15-1) – He will be making his first start here in the U.S. It is difficult to say how good he really is especially at route distances. He only has 1 race beyond 6 furlongs, a 5th place finish in a Group 1 stake at Newmarket. Hard to endorse this guy when he couldn’t beat lesser in overnight stakes. Pass.
10. Za Approval (15-1) – He has only run 2 bad turf races, his debut and an Optional Claiming event on yielding turf. He exits the Grade 3 Knickerbocker which he won by 1 1/4 lengths. That race is one furlong longer than he will run in this race. He is going to get a good trip, probably near Wise Dan. He loves this distance; from 10 starts he has 4 wins and 4 second place finishes. I like this guy to a small upset chance, but I will definitely be using him underneath.
There are only 2 horses that I see who can win and those are #5 Olympic Glory and #8 Wise Dan. I will key them in exacta’s and trifectas with 1-2-7-10. I will do a saver exacta with the 1-2-7-10 on top as well.