2013 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile – 1 Mile Dirt (Race 8, Post Time: 3:05 Pacific Time)
1. Taptowne (15-1) – He has run very well this year, but those races were against weaker. He will be forwardly placed throughout and that might hurt his chances from a pace scenario. I give him a shot at finishing 3rd or 4th.
2. Golden Ticket (12-1) – His last race was tough one up against the likes of Mucho Macho Man and Paynter where he finished 4th. Both of those horses will run in the Breeders Cup Classic. He does get Joel Rosario aboard who has a win and a second while riding him, but I feel he is best suited to longer races. He can hit the ticket for 3rd or 4th as well.
3. Hymn Book (15-1) – I think he is an interesting long shot possibility. In his last race he finished 3rd in the Grade 2 Kelso while wearing blinkers for the first time. If you watch the replay, he made a nice move and was finishing at the end. I like his chances, especially if the track is playing fair.
4. Brujo de Olleros (BRZ) (8-1) – He too raced in the Grade 2 Kelso, where he finished 2nd, a neck ahead of Hymn Book. Jockey Alan Garcia has clearly gotten him figured out and just like the horse to his inside, if the track is playing fair, watch out. Must use on top.
5. Fed Biz (6-1) – He was 8th of 9 in this race last as a 3 Year old and he comes into this race off a good win in the 7 Furlong, Grade 2 Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He likes Santa Anita (3 wins from 6 starts) and likes this distance (3 wins from 5 starts). My gut feeling is he will be flying late, but if the track isn’t playing to his style, he might be spinning his wheels. I will use him underneath.
6. Broadway Empire (12-1) – This guy is 3 for 3 since taking the blinkers off and those 3 wins have been impressive. His latest was in the Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park when he won by 4 lengths. He is working well, but I think the step up in competition will be too much for him.
7. Alpha (8-1) – He raced over the Santa Anita track last when he was last of 12 in the Breeders Cup Classic. Other than the Grade 1 Woodward, he has not shown much this year. I think he was aided by the slop in that win (which he won’t get on Friday) and I don’t think 8-1 is enough for me to place a bet on him.
8. Holy Lute (20-1) – Lightly raced 3 year old has only 4 starts. He has 2 wins and 2 thirds to his credit and his workouts have been good in the mornings. He gets Mike Smith aboard and I like his chances to add value to the Trifecta and Superfecta here.
9. Centralinteligence (15-1) – He is making his 2nd start off a 4 month layoff after using the Santa Anita Sprint Championship as a prep race for this. He is a Grade 1 winner, but he appears to be more of a sprinter than a miler. I think he is up against it in this field.
10. Verrazano (3-1) – One of the top 3 Year olds opts for this race instead of the Classic. His only 2 poor efforts were going 10 Furlongs and they were against top competition. Was it the distance or the competition? There is no doubt he can win this race, but I am going to bet that he won’t.
11. Pants On Fire (6-1) – His last race in the Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap was impressive. He beat the rail horse Taptowne by 2 3/4 lengths and beat Hymn Book two races back by 1 3/4 lengths. If he does not get suckered into a battle for the lead, he will have a big say in this race.
12. Goldencents (4-1) – His last 3 races have all been very good at the sprint distances and now he stretches out for this effort. Unfortunately for him, he is in the outside post which will require him to use extra effort to get a spot in this race. He has been working lights out for this, but I will use him in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th positions on the tickets.
13. Easter Gift (15-1) – He will need a fellow competitor to be scratched from this race to make it into the race. Even if that happens, he will be the outermost horse in the field. His last few races have been very good with figures in the mid 90’s and higher. I think he will find this field too much for him if he draws into the race.
I will do some Win-Place-Show on the #3 Hymn Book and use the 3-4-11 on top in exactas over 3-4-5-8-11-12.