The Pac-12 has finally made its first realignment move following the exodus of 10 member schools a year ago. Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State will leave the Mountain West Conference to join the Pac-12 beginning with the 2026-27 academic year. The Pac-12 was always expected to seek new members from the Mountain West but the expansion will set off a new set of dominoes that will reach the FCS and possibly NCAA Division 2 in the coming years.
The Pac-12 currently has 6 full members slated for the 2026-27 academic year and will need two more schools to satisfy the NCAA requirements to maintain its status as an FBS conference. While the new-look Pac-12 will not be considered a “Power 5” conference, it may drive the College Football Playoff to review how it awards berths. Currently, the CFP is a 5+7 model with the 5 highest-ranked conference champions receiving a bid to the CFP and the other 7 berths awarded to at-large teams. After the realignment dust settles, it seems most likely that the CFP will keep the 5+7 format (or 5+9 format if the CFP expands to 14 teams) but keep in mind some matters can alter the format. To name just a few: additional realignment changes, the ACC lawsuit vs. Clemson and Florida State, the House vs. NCAA lawsuit, and any other possible legal challenges/Congressional action.
What’s Next for the Pac-12?
The next step for the Pac-12 is to find a minimum of two teams to reach 8 full members by 2026-27. Which schools are added will be determined by the current 6-Pac of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State, San Diego State, and Washington State. The most likely targets will come from the American Athletic Conference and the Mountain West but there’s always the slim possibility of California and Stanford returning. It’s unlikely because those two schools hitched their wagon to stay in a Power conference but if the current litigation leads to the ACC falling apart then the Pac-12 is a logical destination. Of course, hoping for the ACC to fall apart is not a smart strategy for the Pac-12 so that’s more of a “if it happens, we’ll consider it then” line of thinking. Memphis and UTSA from the American Athletic Conference may be potential targets for the Pac-12 if the conference desires to look outside the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones
What’s Next for the Mountain West?
The Mountain West is down to 7 full members – Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, and Wyoming – with Hawaii as a football associate member. Not knowing if they will be further poached puts them in an awkward position because they don’t know the exact number of teams they will ultimately lose but they are likely to reload with teams from Conference USA and the FCS. From C-USA, New Mexico State and UTEP are the closest geographically but the FCS offers some potential firepower with Montana (Big Sky), Montana State (Big Sky), North Dakota State (MVFC), and South Dakota State (MVFC) deserving of serious consideration. Idaho, Sacramento State, and UC Davis out of the Big Sky could also be considered.
The Mountain West could also poach teams from the American with Memphis and UTSA but there’s the possibility the MWC could fall apart altogether depending on how other realignment moves shake out. One possible scenario could be the AAC taking teams from the Mountain West with Air Force a natural fit in the American that already has Army and Navy.
What’s Next for Conference USA?
Conference USA is already welcoming two new teams in 2025 with Delaware and Missouri State but could be raided again if NMSU and UTEP do leave for the Mountain West. However, there are FCS teams they could add including the aforementioned Montana, Montana State, NDSU, and SDSU quartet if they are not invited by the Mountain West. Tarleton State is probably the FCS program most likely to move up now that they have completed the four-year D2 to D1 reclassification process. Beyond that, it gets murky because there are no obvious teams to move up from the FCS but that can change quickly once all the pieces start moving and university presidents get FOMO. One area to watch is the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions to provide more travel partners for Delaware and Liberty (assuming neither of those programs leaves C-USA).
What’s Next for the FCS?
At this point in the butterfly effect, it becomes difficult to guess what happens at the FCS level. Losing Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State would increase the parity in the FCS but there’s no guarantee all or any of those four schools leave the FCS. The one thing to keep in mind is the $5 million fee to move from the FCS or FBS, which was put in place last year. It’s not likely a barrier for a majority of schools, especially if the Mountain West comes calling but it’s something to keep in mind.
If the big FCS 4 left, there could be even more moves out of the Big Sky depending on what the Mountain West does. The Big Sky could potentially be a big loser in realignment and would need to find members in a region that has very few options (Southern Utah who left the Big Sky in 2022 and Utah Tech are the closest). The MVFC may try to add a program like St. Thomas (MN) once their reclassification process is complete but there aren’t a lot of great options for them either unless they expand the conference reach to a program like Northern Colorado (unlikely) or look at D2 programs. If that happens, further dominoes may fall with the Big Sky, Big South-OVC, and United Athletic Conference looking to expand, which leads to…
What’s Next for Division 2?
If there was ever a time for a football-playing Division 2 member to move to Division 1 and the FCS, it is during the upcoming realignment cycle. There’s a chance the moves that happen in this next cycle will lead to at least some current powerhouses moving to the FBS. We’ve mentioned West Texas A&M before so now is a good time to double down on that prediction. Other perpetual internet rumors include Central Missouri, Central Oklahoma, Clark Atlanta, Midwestern State, Morehouse, Northwest Missouri State, Tuskegee, Valdosta State, and West Florida. There are numerous other programs that may receive consideration or may seriously believe a move to the FCS is a good move right now even if the timing isn’t perfect.
Summary
The Pac-12 adding four new teams is just the beginning of a new realignment cycle and there is plenty of uncertainty with those moves. The biggest factor is the location of this realignment because West of the Rocky Mountains doesn’t have a plethora of college football programs but this new era of realignment has shown geography is no longer the top factor… at least in the FBS. This change in thinking can make it hard to predict how the realignment will unfold because it’s about the schools that will bring in the most TV revenue, which may mean a program like Memphis ends up in the Pac-12 (or how Cal and Stanford joined the ACC). The most fascinating part is how it will ultimately change the makeup of the FCS and D2 levels (maybe even impacting D3 or NAIA to a small extent). The realignment wheel never really stops turning and we’ll be here to cover the additional changes.
Photo Courtesy of Boise State Athletics