Tag Archives: Chris Klieman

North Dakota State Uses Familiar Blueprint To Beat FBS Foes

North Dakota State defeated #13 Iowa 23-21 on Saturday, September 17, 2016 for their sixth straight victory over an FBS opponent. (Matthew Holst/Getty Images North America)
North Dakota State defeated #13 Iowa 23-21 on Saturday, September 17, 2016 for their sixth straight victory over an FBS opponent. (Matthew Holst/Getty Images North America)

North Dakota State Uses Familiar Blueprint To Beat FBS Foes

Perhaps you heard the North Dakota State Bison defeated the #13 Iowa Hawkeyes 23-21 on Saturday. The Bison went in as 14.5 points underdogs and defeated the mighty Iowa team that went 12-2 and played in the Rose Bowl last season. This was the sixth straight victory for North Dakota State over an FBS opponent. Below is the North Dakota State record and future games versus FBS teams.

So how does North Dakota State consistently defeat their FBS foes? Well, let’s take a closer look.

Below are the averages between the Bison and their last six FBS opponents, which happens to be their current win streak against the FBS.

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So how do the Bison defeat six straight FBS teams? Stop the run, force third and long situations, control the ball, and win the turnover battle.

First, the Bison like to stop the run and that is clear from the rushing yards given up (85.5 per game) and yards per carry average (2.9 per attempt). In fact, their highest rushing total allowed in the six games was 168 yards to Minnesota in 2011. Every other game has seen the Bison allow no more than 102 yards. The highest total yardage allowed by NDSU in the six games was 321 to Kansas State in 2013. The other five games all saw the Bison hold their opponent to fewer than 300 yards.

Notice at the bottom of the picture where it mentions the average yards to go on third down. Some calculations were needed, but the end result is clear: the Bison like to get their opponent in third and long, which becomes and obvious passing down. Common sense says it is a lot easier to prepare when you know what is coming from the other offense. The Bison also did better to defend third down as well allowing roughly 36% (4.5 converted out of 12.5 on average per game). The Bison converted about 50% of their third downs on offense, which helps immensely with time of possession.

Next up is controlling the ball and the Bison do this incredibly well. They held the ball for an average of 60% of the game and that is not an aberration. They won the time of possession battle in all six victories and the last four (Colorado State, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Iowa) saw them hold the ball above their 60% average. The longer NDSU holds the ball, the longer the opposing defense stays on the field and gets tired. Tiredness can lead to mistakes and frustration. It is demoralizing for a defense to be constantly battered without much rest and the Bison are great at this part.

Finally, we have reached the turnover part. The averages say the Bison have less than one turnover per game compared to two for their FBS opponent. Turnovers lead to more possessions, which leads to higher time of possession, more running, and basically everything NDSU loves to do. The Bison have not been perfect as they registered one turnover in four of the six games. The difference? The Bison never lost the turnover battle in the six wins and their “worst” result was against Iowa on Saturday when both teams finished with one turnover.

There is still more to the puzzle that is part of the blueprint, but they are not separated out in the box score. Those pieces would be the coaches game plan and execution by the players. How do you account for the things coaches see on film? How about when the player is in the right spot at the right time? Sure, it might end up as a turnover, but what about a blitz that is called out and picked up or a certain formation that is run? The Bison have been well prepared by Craig Bohl and Chris Klieman, but the players deserve credit for their execution too. They did not become 5-time FCS National Champions solely due to luck or by accident.

Iowa = Kansas State?

The light did not go on watching the North Dakota State-Iowa game as to how similar this game was to the Kansas State victory in 2013. NDSU took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter in both games, K-State and Iowa both responded by scoring at least two touchdowns, and the Bison needed a score late in the game to win. In addition, North Dakota State came in as a double digit underdog and reigning FCS Champions.

While the overall story arc was similar between the two games, some of the stats (and execution by the Bison) were as well. Below are the game stats for both North Dakota State at Kansas State in 2013 and North Dakota State at Iowa on September 18.

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Look at those rushing stats. The Bison averaged 227 yards per game and gave up only 37.5. 37.5 yards per game against two upper level Power 5 conference opponents. Look at the time of possession. NDSU held the ball for 60%+ in each game. They ran about 40% more plays while also committing a grand total of 2 penalties for 20 yards in the two games. Coincidentally, the scores were nearly identical at 23-21 against Kansas State and 24-21 against Iowa.

Want to consistently pull upsets like North Dakota State? There is the blueprint and all you need to do is execute it like the Bison. Easier said than done.

Let’s enjoy this incredible run by the Bison both against FBS teams and in the FCS because these type of streaks do not happen very often.

2015 FCS National Championship Preview And Prediction

John Crockett will be instrumental in the Bison's offensive attack (Tim Heitman / USA TODAY Sports Images)
John Crockett will be instrumental in the Bison’s offensive attack (Tim Heitman / USA TODAY Sports Images)

AUTHOR’S NOTE: This is for the FCS National Championship Game following the 2014 FCS Season. If you are looking for the 2015-16 FCS Championship Preview, it can be found here.

2015 FCS National Championship Preview And Prediction

 Saturday, January 10 will see the crowning of the FCS National Champion for the 2014 season. The #5 Illinois State Redbirds (13-1) will face the #2 North Dakota State Bison (14-1) in Frisco, Texas. Game time is set for 1 PM Eastern Time. Let’s start by taking a look at each team’s road to the Championship.

 

Illinois State Redbirds (13-1) Road To The FCS National Championship

First Round – Bye

Second Round – 41-21 over Northern Iowa at home

Quarterfinals – 59-46 win over Eastern Washington on the road

Semifinals – 21-18 win over New Hampshire on the road

The Redbirds had an average score of 40 to 28 in their three playoff games.

 

North Dakota State Bison (13-1) Road To The FCS National Championship

First Round – Bye

Second Round – 27-24 win over South Dakota State at home

Quarterfinals – 39-32 win over Coastal Carolina at home

Semifinals – 35-3 win over Sam Houston State at home

The Bison had an average score of 34 to 20 in their three playoff games.

Below is the 2015 FCS National Championship Preview And Prediction.

 

FCS National Championship Preview

North Dakota State is favored by 6 points with the Over/Under at 53 points.

For those who have not followed the FCS season, North Dakota State is the three-time defending FCS Champions. They won in 2011, 2012, and 2013 by an average score of 30 to 9 and have not yielded higher than 13 points in any game (2012). Plus, in the 2014 they have done all of this with a new coach in Chris Klieman. Klieman was on the staff since 2011 first as the defensive backs coach before being elevated to defensive coordinator in 2012 and 2013. He was tabbed to replace former head coach Craig Bohl last year.

The Bison will be led on offense by their running back John Crockett. He has run for 1,920 yards and 20 touchdowns (128 yards a game). In the three playoff games he has rushed for 495 yards and 5 touchdowns. In addition, he has caught 4 passes for 82 yards.

Handing the ball of to Crockett will be Carson Wentz. Wentz has not put up gaudy numbers, but he is clearly excellent at leading the offense. He has 2,874 yards passing with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. During the playoffs he has gone 38 of 61 for 587 yards with 5 touchdowns passes and only 1 interception.

Wentz’s top target for 2014 has been Zach Vraa but he was injured against South Dakota State in the second round and has not played since. His status is questionable for Saturday’s tilt. In his absence, RJ Urzendowski has filled in well with 7 catches for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns.

2014’s playoff run has not been easy for the Bison. They needed a last minute comeback against South Dakota State to move on while also needing a fourth quarter score to get past Coastal Carolina in the quarterfinals. Against Sam Houston State, the score was 7-3 before routing the Bearkats 28-0 in the final 30 minutes. With all that said, a win is a win no matter how small the margin.

The other team playing the National Championship game has a great story behind them as well. They are led by former Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Tre Roberson. Roberson played at Indiana from 2011 through 2013 compiling 2,433 yards passing and 20 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. He also ran for 982 yards and 10 touchdowns. In June of 2014 Roberson decided to leave Indiana and headed to Illinois State.

That turned out to be great for both Roberson and the Redbirds. This year, Roberson has thrown for 3,064 yards with 27 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. On the ground Roberson has 868 yards and 10 touchdowns, which makes him dangerous regardless of the play call. In the three playoff games Roberson has gone 59 of 88 for 866 yards with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions through the air. Roberson has also rushed for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns.

As excellent as Roberson has been this season, he had a great boost from Marshaun Coprich. For the season, Coprich has 2,168 yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground. During the playoffs Coprich has run for 485 yards and 6 touchdowns. His 258 yards and 4 touchdowns performance against Eastern Washington on the road in the quarterfinals is the game that stood out the most.

At wide receiver will be the duo of Cameron Meredith and Lechein Neblett. Meredith has 65 catches for 1,047 yards and 9 touchdowns while Neblett has 52 catches for 995 yards and 8 touchdowns. James O’Shaughnessy has been an excellent third option overall, but is deadly near the red zone. He has 27 catches for 500 yards and 7 touchdowns. Those three have accounted for 81.5% of all the passing yards for the Redbirds.

Meredith has 21 catches for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns in the playoffs. Neblett has caught 15 passes for 241 yards and 1 touchdown. O’Shaughnessy has 8 catches for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns.

 

Prediction

Now we reach the prediction part of the article. These two teams did not meet during the regular season despite both playing in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Still, there is plenty of familiarity with North Dakota State playing the Redbirds in 2011, 2012, and 2013. The Bison won in 2012 and 2013, but fell in 2011. Those teams, however, are not the 2014 versions for both schools.

What we do know is that both teams can win a close ball game or a shootout. However, this game does not seem like it will be a shootout given how strong of a defense the Bison boast. The Bison have given up an average of 13 points per game and have given up 20 points or more only three times. The first game was their 23-3 loss at Northern Iowa. The other two games were in the playoffs against South Dakota State (27-24) and Coastal Carolina (39-32). Of course, the Bison won those games so they can hang with anyone.

Illinois State showed excellent resolve coming back in the semifinals at New Hampshire in the fourth quarter. They trailed 18-6 before scoring the last 15 points and getting the birth to this game. However, another deficit like that would be extremely difficult to overcome.

North Dakota State wins 20-17 to capture their fourth straight FCS Championship.