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2015 FCS Playoff Semifinals Predictions

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2015 FCS Playoff Semifinals Predictions

The final four teams remaining in the 2015 FCS Playoffs will be contesting the Semifinals on Friday, December 18 and Saturday, December 19. We went an even 4-4 in the first round, 5-3 in the second round, and 3-1 in the Quarterfinals for a 12-8 record through three rounds. An updated bracket can be found here via the NCAA’s website.

The Richmond at North Dakota State game will be played on Friday evening at 8 PM Eastern Time on ESPN2. Sam Houston State at Jacksonville State will be at 12 PM Eastern Time on Saturday and can be seen on ESPNU. The schedule can be found here.

Below are the 2015 FCS Playoff Semifinals Predictions.

Sam Houston State Bearkats (11-3) at #1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks (12-1) – Saturday at 12 PM ET

Sam Houston State has played in the first three rounds of the FCS Playoffs. The Bearkats defeated Southern Utah 42-39 at home in a wild game in the opening round and then defeated the #4 seed McNeese State on the road in the second round. Last week, the Bearkats routed Colgate 48-21 at home with big games from Jeremiah Briscoe (358 yards and 3 touchdowns passing) and Cory Avery (197 yards and 1 touchdown on 25 carries). Since the 27-10 loss at McNeese State on November 7, the offense has averaged 45 points and 588 yards of offense per game.

Jacksonville State had a bye in the first round before a thrilling 41-35 win in overtime against Chattanooga at home in the second round. The rushing attack was lethal in that game with Eli Jenkins having 195 yards and 3 touchdowns on 24 carries, but he was outdone by teammate Troymaine Pope who had 234 yards and 3 touchdowns on 17 carries. In the Quarterfinal game against Charleston Southern, they put up 506 rushing yards with massive games from those two players again. Jenkins had 250 yards and 3 touchdowns on 16 carries while Jenkins had 195 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 carries. Even Miles Jones had 67 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.

This game features two of the best offenses the FCS has to offer. Sam Houston State is ranked number one in total yards (7,716), passing yards (4,018), yards per game (551), and touchdowns (75). The Bearkats are also ranked fifth in rushing yards (3,698) and third in points per game (43.3). Jacksonville State is number two in total yards (6,770) and touchdowns (65) while they are ranked third in rushing yards (4,004) and yards per game (521). They rank seventh in points per game at 39.4 per contest.

This game should be a high scoring, back and forth affair. Jacksonville State will being using their ground game yet again and they face the 115th ranked rush defense in the FCS by total rushing yards allowed (2,618). Sam Houston State will try the passing game and they faced the 58th ranked pass defense in total passing yards allowed (2,354).

Jacksonville State gets the nod at home in what should be an entertaining game at home. We will go with the Gamecocks to win 63-56 and make their first FCS Championship game appearance.

#7 Richmond Spiders (10-3) at #3 North Dakota State Bison (11-2) – Friday at 8 PM ET

Richmond had a bye in the first round before facing William & Mary for the second straight game. They took care of the Tribe again with a more emphatic thumping by a score of 48-13. In the Quarterfinals, they had to travel to face Illinois State where they produced an upset 39-27. The Spiders took a 10-0 lead after the first quarter and never relinquished that lead, but the Redbirds fought valiantly. Kyle Lauletta threw for 369 yards with a touchdown and an interception on 18 of 30 passing. Jacobi Green had 137 yards and 3 touchdowns on 20 carries. The Spiders held the duo of Tre Roberson and Marshaun Coprich to a combined 66 yards and one touchdown on 24 carries.

North Dakota State had a bye as well in the first round. They faced Montana at home in the second round where they crushed the Grizzlies 37-6 behind a rush defense that allowed only 6 yards on 19 carries. The defense also had two interception returns for touchdowns while the special teams returned a kickoff for a touchdown to crush any hope of a Montana comeback midway through the third quarter.

The Bison faced Northern Iowa in the Quarterfinal game for the second time this year. The Bison gave up a touchdown on Northern Iowa’s first drive, but did not allow the Panthers to reach the end zone after that. They held Aaron Bailey to 101 yards and a touchdown through the air as well as 33 yards rushing on 18 carries. They also kept Tyvis Smith in check with 58 yards on 16 carries. The Bison allowed only 221 yards for the entire game. Despite the rumors of Carson Wentz possibly playing, he did not play as Easton Stick had a solid game going 13 of 17 for 116 yards. King Frazier ran for 107 yards and a touchdown while Bruce Anderson’s 97 yard kickoff return to open the second half gave the Bison the lead they did not relinquish.

If it seems like we have seen this before from North Dakota State that is because we have. This will mark their fifth straight year making the Semifinal round with a home game and only one of those games was closer than a touchdown (23-20 win over Georgia Southern in 2012). The Bison are at home and know how to stop potential potent offenses. We like the Bison (yet again) to make their fifth straight National Championship game by a score of 28-17.

The FCS National Championship will be played on Saturday, January 9, 2016 in Frisco, Texas. That game will be televised on ESPN2 and the Watch ESPN app at 12 PM Eastern Time.

2015 FCS Playoff Quarterfinals Predictions

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2015 FCS Playoff Quarterfinals Predictions

We are down to the final eight teams in the FCS Playoffs this weekend. After going 4-4 in round one, we improved to 5-3 in the second round to have a playoff total of 9-7 going into the final three rounds. The four games are split evenly with two games played on Friday and two on Saturday. The schedule can be found here and the updated bracket is here via the NCAA website.

#8 Charleston Southern Buccaneers (10-2) at #1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks (11-1) – Friday 8 PM Eastern Time

Charleston Southern had a bye in round one and then had to take on a hot Citadel team at home in the second round. After holding The Citadel to 181 yards in their regular season meeting, they did slightly worse by allowing 199 yards in the Second Round Playoff matchup. The Bucs offense did worse in terms of yardage than The Citadel (267 to 199), but did better when it mattered most. Mike Holloway had touchdown runs of 32 and 41 while finishing with 120 yards on 13 carries.

Jacksonville State also had a bye in the first round as the top seed and they had a great game in round two against Chattanooga at home. The Mocs took a 7-0 lead before Jacksonville State rang up 21 straight points. The Gamecocks held a two touchdown lead on two separate occasions, but their lead evaporated thanks to two fourth quarter touchdowns that gave Chattanooga a 35-28 lead. Troymaine Pope ripped off a 75 yard touchdown run to tie it and the game ended in overtime after an interception by the JSU defense and a touchdown run by Eli Jenkins.

These two teams did not meet in the regular season. The big matchup in this game will be Charleston Southern’s #22 ranked rush defense (and #2 defense as ranked by yards per game) against the Jacksonville State rushing offense. The Gamecocks have the #4 ranked rush offense and #4 ranked offense by yards per game. Against Chattanooga, Troymaine Pope had 17 carries for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns while Eli Jenkins ran for 195 yards and 3 touchdowns on 24 carries.

The matchup of strength on strength will be fun to watch and we are taking the top seeded Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win by a score of 27-20. The winner of this game will play either Sam Houston State or Colgate in the Semifinals.

Colgate Raiders (9-4) at Sam Houston State Bearkats (10-3) – Saturday 8 PM Eastern Time

Colgate opened with a big road win against CAA team New Hampshire, 27-20. The balanced offense (189 yards rushing and 188 yards passing) was able to withstand a 41 of 56 for 309 yards (1 touchdown and 1 interception) performance from Sean Goldrich. In round two, the Raiders had a 17-0 lead against James Madison before blowing that and trailing 28-24 at halftime. The game was close for the rest of the way with Jake Melville’s three yard run giving them the 44-38 lead (and win by that score) in the fourth quarter. James Holland had 165 yards and 2 touchdowns rushing while Melville ran for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns in addition to his 120 yards and 2 touchdowns passing.

Sam Houston State won their opening round game against Southern Utah at home in a thriller 42-39. The 344 yards rushing led the way, but the Bearkats also had 235 yards through the air including the eventual game winning score on a 55 yard touchdown pass from Jeremiah Briscoe to Yedidiah Louis. Round two was on the road against undefeated McNeese State 34-29. Briscoe threw for 313 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception while Cory Avery had 147 yards and a score on 30 rushes. Daniel Sams was held to 225 yards passing (4 touchdowns and a pick) and 57 yards rushing on 19 carries.

Both of these teams are a bit surprising thanks to their upset wins in the second round (and first round for Colgate). This game has a high scoring feel to it especially with Sam Houston State’s #1 ranked offense in yards per game at 543 per game. The defenses are decent at best and that is why this game could have both teams scoring in the 40s. We are going with Sam Houston State to win 52-45 to get back to the FCS Semifinals. The winner of this game will play either Charleston Southern or Jacksonville State in the Semifinals.

Northern Iowa Panthers (9-4) at #3 North Dakota State Bison (10-2) – Saturday 12 PM ET

Northern Iowa has played two games in the FCS Playoffs. The first was at home where they thrashed Eastern Illinois 53-17 with three touchdown passes from Aaron Bailey (on just 11 attempts) and 147 yards rushing and a touchdown from Tyvis Smith. The second round saw UNI travel to Portland State for a late kickoff, but once again the Panthers did not yield more than 17 points in a 29-17 win. Aaron Bailey had just 31 yards passing on 7 of 14, but he ran wild to the tune of 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. His backfield mate Tyvis Smith also had 207 yards and 2 touchdowns as Portland State could not overcome the UNI running game.

The North Dakota State Bison had a bye in round one before playing round two at home against Montana. The Bison dismantled the Grizzlies 37-6 thanks to a dominant defensive performance particularly against the run. Montana was only able to rush for 6 yards on the day with 19 carries. The defense also picked off Brady Gustafson four times with two of those returned for touchdowns. When Montana did score their lone touchdown, it was automatically canceled out by Bruce Anderson’s 100 yard kickoff return for a touchdown to end the slight hope of a comeback.

These two teams did meet in the regular season here at the FargoDome. Carson Wentz threw for 335 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions that day, but a broken wrist has sidelined him since mid-October. Whether Wentz plays against UNI is unknown, but what is known is that Northern Iowa will try to establish the run with Bailey and Smith while NDSU will try and stop it. If the Bison have another defensive performance like last week, it does not matter who is at quarterback.

We will go with North Dakota State at home in this one to keep their drive for five straight National Championships alive 31-20. The winner of this game will play the winner of the Richmond at Illinois State game in the Semifinals.

#7 Richmond Spiders (9-3) at #2 Illinois State Redbirds (10-2) – Friday 7:30 PM ET

The Richmond Spiders faced a familiar foe in round two after an opening round by. They crushed William & Mary 48-13 in the opening round just two weeks after defeating them 20-9 in the regular season finale. The game really turned when William & Mary was trying to cut the 14-3 deficit to 14-10, but a 100 yard interception return by David Jones made the score 21-3 and the Tribe never recovered. Richmond had 302 yards rushing and 146 passing. All six of their offensive touchdowns came on the ground with three from Jacobi Green, two from quarterback Kyle Lauletta, and one from David Broadus.

Illinois State also faced a conference opponent in the second round after a bye. They played Western Illinois at home and just like the regular season matchup, the Redbirds did not put them away until late. The game was 22-19 Illinois State with less than 10 minutes to play before two touchdowns in the final six minutes ended the Western Illinois season. Tre Roberson had another bad day passing (10 of 23 for 132 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions), but he made up for that with 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. As expected, Marshaun Coprich had a heavy dose of running and he was nearly unstoppable going for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns on 31 carries. Anthony Warrum was a bright spot in the passing game for ISU with 6 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown.

Both of these teams have good offenses with each favoring one type of attack. On the season, Richmond has favored the passing game while Illinois State prefers to run the ball, but both offenses can use the pass or run. The defenses are far from spectacular, which means a lot of points could be in the forecast. We will take the Illinois State Redbirds to win after making the FCS Championship game last year in a 41-38 thriller. The winner of this game will face off against Northern Iowa or North Dakota State in the Semifinals.