Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 11
We are closing in on the end of the season with about a month until we find out the four teams that will comprise the College Football Playoff. Week 11 is not the best week for games with the best ones being #25 Baylor at #9 Oklahoma, #11 West Virginia at Texas, Pittsburgh at #3 Clemson, #19 LSU at Arkansas, Minnesota at #21 Nebraska, and USC at #4 Washington.
We will focus on games that may not appear to offer much at first glance. These games might not have a national impact, but they could affect a team’s bowl chances or a conference title race. Note that these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.
1. Eastern Michigan at Ball State (11/8 at 7 PM) – Some Tuesday MACtion kicks off the week and this column. This game is all about bowl implications with both teams still looking for 6 wins.
Eastern Michigan is sitting at 5-4 and have lost 3 of their last 4 games after starting a strong 4-1. The Eagles will want to win this game because their next two are against the suddenly hot Northern Illinois Huskies and Central Michigan. Both of those games are at home, but the pressure will build the longer the season goes. In addition, both of those teams are still alive for a bowl berth.
Ball State is currently 4-5 and their road (literally) is just as tough. After this game they face both Toledo and Miami (OH) on the road. Miami (OH) is still alive for a bowl berth at 4-6 while Toledo has a chance at winning the MAC West. This game is big for both schools in terms of a bowl bid.
2. Kentucky at Tennessee (11/12 at 12 PM) – The SEC East is still wide open, which is why this game is crucial. Kentucky still has a glimmer of hope, but needs a lot to go their way to win this division. They own losses to Florida and Georgia, but a win here would put them at 5-3 in conference, in a bowl game, and two Florida SEC losses from a conference title game. Imagine that.
Tennessee’s path is clearer and they just need Florida to lose once in SEC play while the Vols need to win out. The Vols end the season with Missouri (home) and Vanderbilt (away) with the latter being the tougher of the two.
For as crazy as the SEC East has been this year, are there still a few twists left in the plot?
3. Cincinnati at Central Florida (11/12 at 12 PM) – Bowl hopes are on the line here and both teams are facing a must win. Cincinnati is 4-5 with losses in 4 of their last 5 games while their final two games are against good AAC West foes in Memphis (home) and Tulsa (away).
Central Florida, against the backdrop of a horrendous 0-12 season in 2015, sit just one win away from a bowl. They are 5-4, but their final two games are just as difficult as Cincinnati’s. They face Tulsa (home) and AAC East contender South Florida (away).
This game is big, but there is the possibility Cincinnati wins this game and both teams lose their final 2 games to finish 5-7. That would be a disaster for the American Athletic Conference.
4. Tulsa at Navy (11/12 at 12 PM) – There is not much on the line here except the outright lead in the AAC West. Both teams have already hit the six win mark with Tulsa at 7-2 and Navy at 6-2. Both teams control their destiny in this division with identical records of 4-1 and Navy could hold a commanding lead with a win over Tulsa.
Outside of getting blasted by Ohio State, Tulsa has played well in every game. They lost by a touchdown to Houston, but also went to overtime against Fresno State and SMU. Since that 38-31 loss at Houston, Tulsa has won their last three games by an average of 24.3 points per game. That loss to Houston also means they need to win out against Central Florida and Cincinnati or get another loss from Houston in addition to two more losses by Navy.
Navy is coming off their 28-27 win against Notre Dame and they have already beaten Houston this year. Navy needs a win this week and one win in their final two AAC games against East Carolina and SMU to clinch the AAC West Division. Both of those games will be on the road, which may be a little cause for concern because that is where they had their two losses this season (at Air Force and at South Florida).
This could be a high scoring affair as both teams have been putting up points. Then again, Navy could just do what they did against Notre Dame and allow only 2 possessions for Tulsa in the final 30 minutes. This should be a good game.
5. North Carolina State at Syracuse (11/12 at 12:30 PM) – Here are two 4-5 teams that will still need quite a lot to go their way if they win. A win will push one team to 5-5 and the other 4-6, but both teams’ final two games will be hard to win.
NC State started 4-1 this year, but have lost four in a row including three games by a touchdown or less (Clemson, Boston College, and Florida State). They end with Miami (FL) at home and North Carolina away. If they can get enough offense, they may be able to sneak into an upset, but they must beat Syracuse first.
For Syracuse, they have had an up and down season. The offense has looked good at times, though last week against Clemson was terrible. The defense has not been great, but has shown some improvement at times. Both sides will need to be in sync with games against Florida State (home) and Pittsburgh (away) to end the season.
6. UT-San Antonio at Louisiana Tech (11/12 at 3:30 PM) – The C-USA West Division will be on the line here. UTSA is 5-4 overall and 4-2 in C-USA while Louisiana Tech is 7-3 overall and 5-1 in C-USA.
UTSA is playing really well the last five games with a 4-1 record and their lone loss was a 52-49 to UTEP that went to five overtimes. Their win against Middle Tennessee last week was impressive as they won by 20 points on the road and considering UTSA has struggled away from home this year. A win here puts them in their first bowl game in their short history and in first place of the C-USA West.
Louisiana Tech has been on fire the last six weeks, which have all been wins. Five of those games have been blowouts and the close game of those was a 55-52 win over Western Kentucky. Even their 1-3 start is deceiving because they lost 21-20 at Arkansas, demolished FCS South Carolina State, lost 59-45 at Texas Tech, and lost 38-34 at Middle Tennessee. A win here does not completely clinch the C-USA West because Southern Miss has only 2 losses in conference play.
7. Appalachian State at Troy (11/12 at 3:30 PM) – What a game we have here in the Fun Belt. 7-2 Appalachian State (5-0 in SBC) and 7-1 Troy (4-0 in SBC) meet in one of the biggest conference games of the year.
Appalachian State has a strong defense and they will be put to the test against Troy’s offense that averages 39.4 points per game and have scored at least 31 points in six of their eight games (6-0 in those games). Appalachian State’s defense has given up 19.6 points per game and just 8.4 points per game in Sun Belt games.
A win for Appalachian State would pretty much put them in position to win the Sun Belt or at worst tie for the title. Their final two games are against UL-Monroe (home) and New Mexico State (away).
Troy’s final four games are daunting. They face Appalachian State, fellow Sun Belt undefeated Arkansas State (home), Texas State (away), and Georgia Southern (away). Keep an eye on this game to see which side can gain the upper hand.
8. South Florida at Memphis (11/12 at 7 PM) – The third AAC game to make an appearance this week and this one also has possible conference title game implications. South Florida is 7-2 overall while Memphis is 6-3 overall.
South Florida, which already holds a loss to Temple, is 4-1 in the AAC East and needs Temple (5-1 in the AAC) to lose another game while winning out to win the AAC East. They face SMU (away) and Central Florida (home) in their final two games so their last three games in total will not be easy wins.
Memphis is 3-2 in the AAC and are a long shot to win the AAC West division having lost to both Navy and Tulsa already this year. Still, this is a solid team that could ruin South Florida’s AAC hopes if they are at their best. Memphis also faces Cincinnati (away) and Houston (home) to end the year so this could be a chance to build momentum heading into the bowl season.
Check back next week for the week 12 edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.
Five Predictions For The Sun Belt Conference In 2016
The 2016 College Football season is right around the corner and that means prediction time. Below are five predictions for the Sun Belt Conference for the 2016 season. Some predictions will be right, some predictions will be wrong, and some will be spectacularly awful by the end of the season.
There are no changes to the teams in 2016 as all eleven teams will be the same from 2015. Those 11 teams are Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Idaho, Louisiana Lafayette, Louisiana Monroe, New Mexico State, South Alabama, Texas State, and Troy.
Here are five predictions for the Sun Belt Conference in 2016:
1. Georgia Southern’s Matt Breida will lead the Sun Belt in rushing – This is going out on a bit of a limb as there are some very good running backs in the Sun Belt. Breida was the #2 rusher in the SBC last year (#10 in the FBS) with 1,608 yards. He still has to contend with the Larry Rose III of New Mexico State who was top rusher in the SBC as well as #8 in the FBS with 1,651 yards. Outside of Breida and Rose, Marcus Cox of Appalachian State (1,423 yards) and Elijah McGuire of Louisiana Lafayette (1,058 yards) are capable of leading the conference in rushing. Breida and Georgia Southern are switching coaches, but the offensive scheme is staying the same with the triple option. This will be a fun race to watch as to who will end up with the most rushing yards in the Sun Belt for 2016.
2. Arkansas State or Appalachian State will win the Conference – Alright, this is not going out on a limb at all. When looking at this conference, it is hard to envision that one of these teams will not capture the crown. Arkansas State loses the duo of quarterback FrediKnighten and running back MichaelGordon but Pittsburgh graduate transfer Chad Voytik comes in to give the Red Wolves a very good replacement. Overall, Arkansas State has 13 starters back with six on offense and seven on defense.
For Appalachian State, they went 11-2 last year and return 15 total starters with 6 on offense and 9 on defense. They have Cox at running back returning (see above) as well as quarterback Tyler Lamb, who threw for 2,387 yards with 31 touchdowns against 9 interceptions. The defense gave up only 19.1 points and 314 yards per contest in 2015 and may approach those numbers again this year.
There is also the convenient scheduling quirk that Arkansas State and Appalachian State do not face each other in 2016. The other logical Sun Belt contender is Georgia Southern, but they have to face both Arkansas State (away) and App State (home).
3. Texas State will not win more than 3 games in 2016 – The Bobcats look to have a rough 2016 season ahead of them. They have a new head coach in Everett Withers after five seasons of DennisFranchione (2011 through 2015). Franchione led the Bobcats to a 26-34 record as they went from the FCS in 2011 to full time FBS members. It was a respectable job done by him, but both sides of the ball regressed in 2015 and he resigned after the season. For 2016, Texas State has 10 total starters returning with four on offense (26.9 points and 414 yards per game) and six on defense (39.2 points and 522 yards per game allowed). Their non-conference schedule has what appears to be just one winnable game against FCS IncarnateWord while also facing Ohio (away), Arkansas (away), and Houston. They do face fellow SBC dwellers Louisiana Monroe, New Mexico State, and Georgia State, but all three of those games are on the road.
4. New Mexico State’s bowl drought will extend to 56 years – This seems like a no-brainer, but at least one person thinks otherwise. The Aggies do have some talent like the aforementioned Larry Rose and also add in the very talented Tyler Matthews (was previously at TCU and Southern Miss). The defense will be coached by former Boston College Head Coach Frank Spaziani, but he has a lot of work to do. The 2015 defense gave up 45 points and 522 yards per game with 8 starters back. Now seven return in 2016 and it is not always a good thing to have that many back from a defense that poor. Yes, Spaziani will make strides, but to get a group like this to be competitive enough off the 2015 season is asking a lot.
New Mexico State also has a tough schedule in 2016 to reach a bowl game. They face UTEP (away), New Mexico, Kentucky (away), and Texas A&M (away). In conference, the Aggies will face Louisiana Lafayette, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State (away) and Appalachian State. Their winnable games are against Idaho, Texas State, and perhaps South Alabama. It is difficult to foresee both sides of the ball improving enough to get to 6 wins in 2016, especially on defense.
5. Idaho will make a bowl game – This is more of a sentimental/hope it happens prediction. Idaho is slated to leave the FBS after the 2017 season and join the Big Sky Conference of the FCS in 2018. That leaves Idaho two last chances to make their third bowl game in school history after playing in the Humanitarian Bowl twice in 1998 and 2009 (won both games). There are legitimate reasons to think Idaho can make a bowl game starting with the offense. Under Paul Petrino, Idaho has improved their points and yardage output per game each year with 2015 at 30.3 points and 428 yards per game. Quarterback Matt Linehan (2,972 yards on 63.1% completions with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions) will have three of his top four receivers back and four of the offensive linemen return as well. The offense will continue to move along.
The real issue is on defense for Idaho as their best season performance under Petrino was in 2014 when they surrendered 37.3 points and 463 yards per game. Those numbers only give opposing offenses more confidence. There are six starters back from 2015, but that is not always a good thing when they perform as poorly as they did last year. They are under the second year of Defensive Coordinator Mike Breske, which may explain some of the drop from 2014.
Idaho does have a solid chance to reach the six win plateau. The open with Montana State, Washington (away), Washington State (away), and UNLV (away). Their conference foes consist of winnable games versus Louisiana Monroe (away), New Mexico State, Texas State, (away) South Alabama, and Georgia State. They also face Troy, App State (away), and Louisiana Lafayette (away) in games that appear to be likely losses, but an upset could happen (that is why they play the games, right?). If Idaho can beat Montana State and UNLV out of conference, they should have a good chance at reaching 6-6 with their conference schedule.
The Prediction Schedule
With the Sun Belt Predictions above, there are now predictions for two conferences in the books. Below are the predictions completed and what is next.
Illinois Fighting Illini at North Carolina Tar Heels
Result: North Carolina Win 48-14 (Saturday, September 19)
Illinois took a huge step up in competition from their first two games and it showed. They struggled in all phases of the game in a 48-14 blowout loss.
Wes Lunt struggled passing, as he connected on just 15 of 32 passes for 140 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. The one bright spot was Josh Ferguson, who ran for 133 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries.
The defense was horrendous against Marquise Williams, who had 203 yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick on 17 of 24 passing. Williams also ran for 105 yards on 9 carries while Elijah Hood had 129 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.
Ryan Switzer led the Tar Heels on the special teams front with a nice 85 yard punt return for a touchdown and he also caught 3 passes for 50 yards and a touchdown through the air.
Illinois found out they will need to be far better to contend in the Big Ten West division. They have their final non-conference game next week at home against Middle Tennessee. They will have to fix their big issues in that game before the Big Ten conference schedule begins in October.
South Florida Bulls at Maryland Terrapins
Result: Maryland Win 35-17 (Saturday, September 19)
Maryland fell behind 7-0 early in the game, but they rebounded nicely to end the game on a 35-10 run. It was not always pretty, however, as Caleb Rowe struggled at times behind center. Rowe went 21 of 33 for 297 yards with 4 touchdowns, but also threw 3 interceptions. Two of those picks led to touchdowns for South Florida
Maryland lost running back Wes Brown early in the second quarter due to a targeting call, but BrandonRoss stepped up for 68 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. The duo of Levern Jacobs (8 catches for 107 yards) and Taivon Jacobs (2 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown) led the Terps in receiving. AveryEdwards had 3 catches for 36 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The defense looked better and the first touchdown was hardly their fault as the USF offense started at the Maryland four yard line. The Terps did struggle against the run as they allowed 240 yards and a touchdown on 50 carries. However, they allowed only 60 yards and a touchdown through the air to USF, which helped them win this game. Sean Davis picked off two passes for Maryland with his second setting up a touchdown for the offense.
Maryland looked better this week, but they are going to be tested again next week against rival West Virginia with the game in Morgantown.
UNLV Rebels at Michigan Wolverines
Result: Michigan Win 28-7 (Saturday, September 19)
The Wolverines improved to 2-1 on the season, but it was not pretty once again. Jake Rudock went a paltry 14 of 22 for 123 yards with a touchdown an interception. The interception did not lead to anything, but it was Rudock’s fifth of the season – the same amount he threw in all of 2014.
The Michigan running game was strong against UNLV with 39 rushes for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns as a team. Ty Isaac led the way with 114 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries. The touchdown came on a nice 76 yard dash to the end zone. Jehu Chesson had one rush that resulted in a 36 yard touchdown while De’Veon Smith was held to 33 yards on 13 carries. Smith did catch a five yard touchdown as well.
The Michigan defense was stout again this week giving up 235 total yards with 143 through the air and 92 on the ground. The defense allowed only 88 yards of offense in the first half while Channing Stribling’s interception on the opening drive allowed the offense to get a head start early on.
Michigan has played well at home the last two weeks and the defense looks particularly stingy. They will have to be really good next week with BYU coming into the Big House.
Air Force Falcons at #4 Michigan State Spartans
Result: Michigan State Win 35-21 (Saturday, September 19)
Michigan State played well in the first half to race out to a big lead over Air Force, but there were some concerns out of this game. One of them was not Connor Cook.
Cook threw for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns on 15 of 23 passing and found a new favorite target in AaronBurbridge, who had 8 catches for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. R.J. Shelton had a solid game with 5 catches for 68 yards as well. The Spartans did not run the ball well at all with just 77 yards on 42 carries as a team. Madre London was the top rusher with 40 yards on 17 carries.
The defense gave up a lot of yards on the ground to Air Force, which is not really a surprise given the triple option offense they run. What was shocking was the amount of passing yards they gave up. Karson Roberts only went 6 of 9, but had 149 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Several of those completions showed wide open Air Force receivers including two passes to Jalen Robinette, who had no one around him. Considering Robinette is the biggest passing threat for Air Force, that is inexcusable for the Spartans.
The defense did play well for most of the first half as they built a 28-7 lead at the break. Kicker MichaelGeiger had a kick blocked late in the second quarter on a low attempt.
Michigan State stays home for their final non-conference game with Central Michigan visiting.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Result: Minnesota Win 10-7 (Saturday, September 19)
Minnesota struggled mightily against Kent State in a sloppy 10-7 win. Both teams struggled on offense (as if the score was not an indication) with neither team have more than 300 yards of total offense.
Mitch Leidner went 17 of 27 for 184 yards with a touchdown, but also threw 2 interceptions. Both of those picks were in the first half and did not result in points for Kent State. Rodney Smith had a hard time getting big chunks of yards as he finished with 73 yards on 30 carries.
The defense did very well in this game giving up only 142 yards with 63 through the air and 79 on the ground. Incredibly, the Kent State offense did not run a play in Minnesota territory until the fourth quarter.
One Kent State player who deserves a massive shout out is Demetrius Monday. Monday had both of Leidner’s interceptions and also returned a fumble 80 yards for a touchdown. He played incredible during this game.
Minnesota faces Ohio next week at home in their final non-conference game.
#23 Northwestern Wildcats at Duke Blue Devils
Result: Northwestern Win 19-10 (Saturday, September 19)
It was an ugly win for Northwestern on the road at Duke, but all wins count the same. A massive second half from the offense and special teams spurred them to a 3-0 record. The Northwestern offense had only 57 yards on their first nine drives, which encompassed the entire first half. Their first drive of the second half resulted in 53 yards and a field goal.
Clayton Thorson struggled at times and he finished the game going 9 of 23 with just 70 yards through the air. He also had 2 interceptions, both of which were poor decisions with multiple defenders in the area. Justin Jackson ran for 120 yards on 35 carries while Warren Long’s 55 yard touchdown run helped put the Wildcats up for good.
The defense gave up a touchdown early in the first quarter after an interception by Thorson, but they allowed just a field goal the rest of the game. Defensive end Dean Lowry had a big game and picked off a pass with Duke in the red zone late in the second quarter to keep it a 7-0 game. The defense allowed 327 yards of offense to Duke, but did not allow them to get into a rhythm at all during the game.
The special teams were also huge as Solomon Vault took the opening kick of the second half 98 yards to the house. They missed the extra point on the ensuing try, but Jack Mitchell was also two-for-two on his field goal attempts.
The Wildcats continue to be stifling on defense and will face Ball State at home next week.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Miami Hurricanes
Result: Miami Win 36-33 in 1 overtime (Saturday, September 19)
This was an odd game. Miami looked well on their way to a big win as they led 33-10 early in the fourth quarter. Nebraska made a furious rally to tie the game at 33 and send the game into overtime. However, Nebraska fell short in overtime as they lost 36-33.
Nebraska could not get anything going in the first half as they tallied 137 yards of offense and only three points. Tommy Armstrong had another good game with 309 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 21 of 45 passing. He also ran for 49 yards on 11 carries while Terrell Newby had 82 yards on 14 rushes. Armstrong was able to lead Nebraska to 23 fourth quarter points including the game tying drive with an 8 yard pass to Stanley Morgan (had 4 catches for 78 yards and a score) and the 2 point conversion to Jordan Westerkamp (5 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown).
The defense looked lost early on as they were blitzed in the first quarter with 17 points allowed on Miami’s first three drives. They were better in the fourth quarter as the team made its comeback. The defense allowed 511 yards in this game, but held the Hurricanes to 3 of 14 on third down.
Nebraska will have to find a way to bounce back off a second devastating loss this year and they have Southern Miss next week at home to help.
Northern Illinois Huskies at #1 Ohio State Buckeyes
Result: Ohio State Win 20-13 (Saturday, September 19)
Ohio State played an ugly game against Northern Illinois, but survived in their bid to win a second straight national title.
The quarterback play was uneven once again with Cardale Jones going 4 of 9 for 36 yards, but also had two interceptions. He was replaced by JT Barrett, who did better, but was also not overwhelming. He went 11 of 19 for 97 yards with 1 touchdown and an interception. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 108 yards on 23 carries while Michael Thomas was the top wide receiver with 3 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. The Buckeyes put up only 298 yards of offense while they committed five turnovers that led to 10 NIU points. It was an incredibly poor performance and the Buckeyes also went only 2 of 13 on third down.
The defense was strong in this game allowing only 190 yards of offense to NIU with 80 through the air and 110 on the ground. Darron Lee had a 41 yard pick six that ultimately proved to be the game winning score. The defensive line was disruptive as well during the game as the defense bailed out a putrid offensive performance.
Sometimes a team just has to win and survive and that appears to be the case for Ohio State. They have another MAC team next week at home again in Western Michigan.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Purdue Boilermakers
Result: Virginia Tech Win 51-24 (Saturday, September 19)
Purdue had a massive test at home against Virginia Tech and were clearly not up to par, but did show some flashes on offense.
Austin Appleby struggled going 9 of 28 for 110 yards with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Appleby also ran 13 times for only 11 yards, but had a rushing touchdown. MarkellJones had a big day thanks to his 60 yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. The offense did struggle against the Virginia Tech defense as they only converted 2 of 15 third down conversions and had three turnovers with the fumble being returned for a touchdown by Virginia Tech.
The defense struggled as well giving up 471 yards of offense and allowing 7 of 16 third down conversions to Virginia Tech. The defense did get a 90 yard fumble return for a touchdown via Danny Ezechukwu that gave Purdue a 14-10 lead. The special teams unit had a punt blocked and it was returned for a touchdown by Virginia Tech.
Purdue has another stiff test next week at home against Bowling Green. It will test their defense again with the high-powered Falcons offense.
Troy Trojans at #24 Wisconsin Badgers
Result: Wisconsin Win 28-3 (Saturday, September 19)
The Wisconsin Badgers were without Corey Clement for a second straight game due to a groin injury, but they had little trouble defeating Troy. The score was not flashy, but they were dominant particularly on defense.
Joel Stave was very efficient going 13 of 17 for 202 yards and a touchdown while also having a rushing touchdown from 4 yards out. Taiwan Deal and Dare Ogunbowale split carries in the absence of Clement. Deal led the team with 84 yards on 16 carries while Ogunbowale had 75 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Tanner McEvoy saw some action at quarterback in the wildcat and he had a nice 32 yard touchdown run to finish the day with 41 yards on 2 carries.
Alex Erickson was the leading receiver with 3 catches for 87 yards while Robert Wheelwright had 2 grabs for 50 yards. Tight End Austin Traylor had 2 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown with both of those catches coming late in the fourth quarter. The offense will need to work on the 3 for 10 on third down conversions, but there was more signs of life on the offensive line and in the running game.
The defense was stout with only 255 yards of offense given up. They held Troy to 81 yards rushing on 33 carries and 174 yards passing through the air. The defense forced only one turnover and allowed 7 of 16 on third down conversions. Overall, the defense was very good in this game.
Wisconsin has Hawaii next week at home in their final non-conference tune up.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana Hoosiers
Result: Indiana Win 38-35 (Saturday, September 19)
Indiana had a massive third quarter that allowed them to win another shootout. They survived a 35 of 46 for 484 yards and 3 touchdowns passing performance from Western Kentucky’s Brandon Doughty.
The offense looked good for Indiana as Nate Sudfeld threw for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns on 20 of 27 passing. Jordan Howard ran wild with 203 yards on 31 carries and Devine Redding had 79 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Ricky Jones had his second 100 yard performance of the season with 5 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. The offense finished with 639 yards and went 8 of 12 on third down.
As usual, the defense is the worry for Indiana. They allowed 9 catches for 196 yards and a score from Taywan Taylor while Tyler Higbee had 11 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown. They allowed a total of 568 yards of offense, but did force two interceptions out of Doughty that were turned into 14 points.
It will probably need to be the offense that gets the job done for Indiana as their defense will struggle. They face Wake Forest next week on the road in a big game for Indiana’s bowl hopes in 2015.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions
Result: Penn State Win 28-3 (Saturday, September 19)
The first Big Ten conference game of the season resulted in an easy win for the Nittany Lions. Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg was not overly impressive going just 10 of 19 for 141 yards with no touchdowns and a pick, but the rushing game sure was for PSU.
Saquon Barkley carried the ball 21 times for 195 yards and two touchdowns while Akeel Lynch ran for 120 yards and a score on just 10 carries. Those two were very impressive as was the offensive line that paved the way for them.
Rutgers, on the other hand, could not run the ball as they managed just 43 yards on 32 carries as a team. Chris Laviano had a little success through the air, but was largely stymied by the Penn State defense. Laviano finished 27 of 42 for 251 yards with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Rutgers defense was not very good as they allowed 491 yards to Penn State.
Rutgers faces Kansas next week in their third non-conference game. Penn State takes on San Diego State at home next week.
Pittsburgh Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes
Result: Iowa Win 27-24 (Saturday, September 19)
I was able to take a 10 point lead into halftime, but needed a last second, 57 yard field goal from MarshallKoehn to win the game 27-24.
C.J. Beathard had a decent game going 27 of 40 for 258 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. It largely fell on him to get the big plays as the rushing offense managed 105 yards on 29 carries. JordanCanzeri had 12 carries for 49 yards and 2 scores while Beathard had 39 yards and a touchdown. Beathard led the Hawkeyes late in the game to set up Koehn’s 57 yard field goal.
The defense played a solid game giving up 282 yards and held the Panthers to just 55 yards on the ground. They forced two picks from Pittsburgh on their first two drives including one in the end zone. DesmondKing came up with both of the interceptions and now has three on the season. The defense will be important for Iowa to continue strong start.
North Texas will visit next week in Iowa’s final non-conference game.
Check back next week for the round up of the Big Ten action in week four.
Part eight of Sports Enthusiasts 2015 College Football Preview will look at the 11 teams in the Sun Belt Conference. In addition, the FBS Independents Preview can also be seen here in this double release. Below is a schedule of the conferences that have already been previewed and which ones are still ahead.
Below is a look at each of the Sun Belt teams and their outlook for 2015.
1. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State has finally found a bit of stability in their head coach after seeing four different coaches in four seasons from 2011 through 2014. Blake Anderson came in for the 2014 season and led Arkansas State to a 7-6 record and 5-3 in the Sun Belt. 2015 is looking pretty good for Arkansas State as well.
2014 saw only three starters back for the Red Wolves on offense, but that was not an issue as they put up 36.7 points and 476 yards of offense. Quarterback Fredi Knighten will lead another high powered attack after throwing for 3,277 yards with 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He also ran for 779 yards and 11 touchdowns and he will have his main workhorse running back returning as well. Michael Gordon ran for 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns making this backfield incredibly dangerous in the Sun Belt. ASU had three receivers with at least 35 catches and 600+ yards in 2014 and all three are back (Tres Houston, Dijon Paschal, JD McKissic). It is scary to think that ASU could put up even higher numbers in 2015 with nine starters back, but it is a strong possibility with one of the best, if not already the top, offense in the Sun Belt.
The defense returns six starters after surrendering 30.5 points and 421 yards per game last year. Three defensive linemen are back after giving up 205 yards rushing per game including Chris Stone. Stone had 48 tackles, 7.5 sacks, and 2.5 tackles for loss in 2014 and will need to have a strong year again. ASU lost their top linebacker from a year ago, but do return the other two. The secondary has only one starter back in Money Hunter and will possibly struggle back there. The Red Wolves may struggle at times, but should have a similar season defensively that they produced last year.
Arkansas State opens with a road game at USC before back-to-back home games against Missouri and Missouri State. They travel to face Toledo before entering conference play. They have some tough games in the Sun Belt with Appalachian State and UL-Monroe on the road as well as UL-Lafayette and Texas State at home. They are the team to beat in the Sun Belt with this offense.
2. Texas State Bobcats
Texas State has been part of the FBS since 2012 and head coach Dennis Franchione has been with them since 2011. The Bobcats have not been bad by any stretch of the imagination as they have three seasons of 6-6 or better. 2015 is a great chance for them to make their first bowl game in school history.
The offense will return eight starters from a unit that put up 33.8 points and 464 yards in 2014. TylerJones threw for 2,670 yards with 22 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while rushing for another 539 yards and 6 touchdowns. Running back Robert Lowe ran for 1,091 yards and 12 touchdowns while the return of Chris Nutall could give the Bobcats an excellent 1-2 punch. Bradley Miller was the top receiver last year with 44 catches for 431 yards, but the second, third, and fourth leading receivers from 2014 return and could have a better year of production. The offense will continue to do well for Texas State.
The defense was respectable last season with only four returning starters back. They gave up 27.7 points and 446 yards per game and now return six starters for 2015. Three starters are back on the line while linebacker will have to replace the monster in David Mayo. Mayo recorded 154 tackles in 2014 and it will fall to Trey McGowan to lead the unit (80 tackles in 2014 as the team’s second leading tackler). Two starters are back in the secondary and should see some steady improvement over 2014. The defense should be no worse than they were a year ago even with Mayo gone.
Texas State has Florida State on the road to start the season while they will then play the duo of Prairie View and Southern Miss at home. They will face Houston on the road to close out the non-conference portion before facing UL-Lafayette on the road with that game sandwich between two bye weeks. Other games that will be a test include Georgia Southern (road), UL-Monroe )home), and Arkansas State (road) in the final week of the season. That final game could determine which team is the winner of the Sun Belt in 2015.
3. Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia Southern’s first year in the Sun Belt in 2014 was simply amazing. They went undefeated in conference play at 8-0 and finished the year at 9-3. They lost by a grand total of five points to North Carolina State and Georgia Tech on the road as well. Thanks to an NCAA rule prohibiting transitional teams from the FCS to make bowl appearances, they were not in the post-season. Could 2015 provide Georgia Southern with a second straight championship?
The offense was spectacular in 2014 with 39.1 points and 488 yards of offense produced per game. The main core of the offense is back with five starters returning. Kevin Ellison threw for 1,001 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions while finishing second on the team in rushing at 1,096 yards and 12 touchdowns. The top running backs all return led by Matt Breida. He had 1,485 yards and 17 touchdowns while Alfred Ramsby (691 yards and 12 touchdowns) and Favian Upshaw (385 yards and 2 touchdowns) are returning as well. The number one and three receivers depart, but BJ Johnson led the Eagles in catches with 23 for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns. The passing game is not the focus of the offense, but there is only one starter back on the line. The offense will still be potent in 2015, but it may not reach the same heights it did last year.
The defense performed quite admirably in 2014 by allowing 23.4 points and 388 yards per game in the Eagles’ first full FBS season. The entire defensive line returns intact after giving up 154 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. Linebacker is the weak spot with only Antwione Williams back after recording 65 tackles, 3 sacks, and 5 tackles for loss and the loss of Edwin Jackson will be tough (100 tackles to lead team). The secondary returns three starters from a group that allowed 58.5% completions. The defense will be solid again in their second year of FBS play.
The Eagles will open the season on the road at West Virginia before back-to-back home games versus Western Michigan and The Citadel. They open conference play after that with back-to-back road games against Idaho and UL-Monroe. Their final non-conference game is in late November at Georgia. They will have to face the likes of Appalachian State (road) and Texas State (home), but avoid Arkansas State and UL-Lafayette. Georgia Southern should be in their first bowl game (they are eligible this year) and should finish high in the Sun Belt.
4. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Like Georgia Southern, Appalachian State was in their first full FBS season in 2014. They had an awful start going 1-5 before winning their final six games to finish 7-5. Also like Georgia Southern, they were not eligible for a bowl game.
The offense returns a whopping 10 starters after averaging 35.7 points and 462 yards per game last year. Taylor Lamb threw for 2,381 yards with 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions while also rushing for 483 yards and 4 touchdowns. The top two rushers, Marcus Cox (1,415 yards and 19 touchdowns) and Terrence Upshaw (573 yards and 4 touchdowns) are back as well. The top five receivers also return though the top two receivers, Malachi Jones and Simms McElfresh, will need to have better production. Jones caught 36 passes for 585 yards and 3 touchdowns while McElfresh had 42 catches for 484 yards and 5 touchdowns. Four starters return on the offensive line as well, which only helps. This offense looks scary and could be even scarier if the passing game improves.
The defense is a mirror image of the offense in that ten starters return. The defense gave up 27.3 points and 348 yards per game with the top six tacklers back. The entire line remains intact after allowing 152 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. Ronald Blair will be at one of the end spots after recording 43 tackles, 6 sacks, and 7 tackles for loss. All four linebackers are returning as well in this 3-4 scheme. JohnLaw led the team in tackles with 91, but also recorded 2 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, and an interception. The secondary has three of the four starters back after giving up 195 yards and allowing 59% completions. The defense should be just as good this year.
App State will face FCS Howard opening week before going on the road to face Clemson. They will have a bye week before facing Old Dominion on the road and Wyoming at home to end their non-conference schedule. App State has several tough games in conference that may prevent them from winning the title. They have UL-Monroe (road) and Georgia Southern (home) in a span of five days from October 17 to October 22. They also have to face Arkansas State and UL-Lafayette, but get both of those at home. It is tough to pick App State fourth with the amount of experience returning, but they should make their first bowl game in school history at the very least.
5. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Louisiana-Monroe has been to only one bowl game in school history and that was a 45-14 loss in 2012 to Ohio in the Independence Bowl. The Warhawks have gone downhill since then with a 6-6 record in 2013 and 4-8 record in 2014. This season must provide a better result if Todd Berry hopes to stick around for 2016.
The offense returns six starters from a unit that produced only 20.1 points and 349 yards per game. The rushing game was abysmal with only 70 yards per game. Both the top passer and rusher are gone, but the running back production is easy to replace given the awful stats put up. Brayle Brown is expected to be the starting quarterback , but he went 14 of 24 for 172 yards with a touchdown and interception in backup duty. Brown will have two of the top receivers back in Rashon Caeser (77 catches for 872 yards and 3 touchdowns) as well as Ajalen Holley (57 catches for 863 yards and 7 touchdowns) to help him out. Three starters are back on the line and assuming the running game has better production (how can they not?) the offense will be better even with a new quarterback.
The defense will have eight starters back after a solid season in 2014 when they gave up 26.3 points and 373 yards per game. Two of the three defensive linemen return and the guy to watch out for is GerrandJohnson. As a nose tackle, he led ULM with 93 tackles while also recording 6 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. Three of the four linebackers return in Mitch Lane, Hunter Kissinger, and Michael Johnson, which is a good sign because they were the second, third, and fourth leading tacklers respectively last year. The secondary also has three starters back with Trey Caldwell at one of the cornerback spots. He was was solid with 42 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 8 pass breakups, and an interception. The ULM defense should be one of the best in the Sun Belt.
Louisiana-Monroe has five non-conference games spread over the course of the season thanks to a trip to Hawaii. They open with a road game at Georgia before a home date against Nicholls State. A bye week leads into a game at Alabama before conference play commences. ULM will travel to face Tulsa (Oct. 10) and Hawaii (Nov. 28) later in the season. The Warhawks have quite a few tough in-conference games with Georgia Southern (home), Appalachian State (home), UL-Lafayette (road), Arkansas State (home), and Texas State (home) all on the slate. That daunting schedule may keep them from finishing higher in the Sun Belt.
6. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
Since Mark Hudspeth took over Louisiana-Lafayette in 2011 there have been two constants each year: a 9-4 record for the year and a win in the New Orleans Bowl. Will 2015 be a carbon copy of the first four years under Hudspeth?
The offense has six starters back, but the loss of Terrance Broadway will hurt the team. Brooks Haack threw for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns in backup duty last year and will probably not match the ability of Broadway. Elijah McGuire is back after running for 1,264 yards and 14 touchdowns and will be the main back in this offense. McGuire is also the top leading receiver returning after having 45 catches for 468 yards and 2 touchdowns. The top returning wide receiver is Al Riles who had 34 catches for 354 yards and a touchdown. Three offensive linemen also return, but the offense will struggle at times with many new personnel at the skills positions.
The defense also has six starters back after allowing 26 points and 406 yards per game in 2014. Only the second and seventh leading tacklers return from the top eight.The defensive line has only Jacoby Briscoe back from last year, but he started just four games. Dominique Tovell was the second leading tackler last year with 67 stops, 2.5 sacks, and 6.5 tackles for loss and will be leading the linebackers. Two starters are back in the secondary and should improve on their 65% completions allowed. The defense will probably allow similar numbers to last year.
ULL will open the season with a road game against Kentucky and then welcome Northwestern State home. After a bye, ULL will face Akron at home and then play Louisiana Tech on the road. In conference, ULL has several tough games to start conference play. They face Texas State at home and then take on Arkansas State on the road. They also have UL-Monroe (home) and Appalachian State (road). UL-Lafayette will be looking for a fifth straight bowl game and have a good shot at getting there.
7. New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State was a member of the Sun Belt from 2000 through 2004 before joining the WAC for the 2005 season. They rejoined the Sun Belt in 2014 and went 2-10 in both of Doug Martin’s first two seasons. 2015 provides Martin with his most experienced team.
The offense made good strides in 2014. They put up 24.5 points and 421 yards per game with eight starters back in the fold. Eight starters are back in 2015 including the top skills players. Quarterback Tyler Rogers threw for 2,779 yards with 19 touchdowns, but had an incredibly high 23 interceptions as well. Larry Rose ran for 1,102 yards and 9 touchdowns despite missing time due to a sprained MCL. TeldrickMorgan caught 903 yards and 7 touchdowns on 75 receptions and will the be the top target once again. With four starters back on the offensive line as well, the Aggies can expect to have another improvement in the offensive numbers in 2015.
The defense has not been good for Martin in his first two years. In 2013, the unit allowed 44.6 points and 550 yards per game, but did improve in 2014 to 39.1 points and 484 yards per game. 2015 will have ten starters back for the defense with the only loss on the line. The line produced only five sacks in 2014 and will need to improve on that. The linebackers return and that is good thing for the Aggies because RodneyButler (119 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss), Derek Ibekwe (102 tackles and 4 tackles for loss), and Dalton Herrington (85 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 tackles for loss) were the team’s top three tacklers. The secondary was not too bad last year giving up 175 yards and 62.5% completions. The defense should continue to improve overall, but could make a big step forward if the line surprises with better rush defense.
The Aggies will open with a road game at Florida before starting Sun Belt play in week two against Georgia State at home. They will face rival UTEP at home in week three and complete their non-conference schedule after a bye week with road games at New Mexico and Ole Miss. In conference, they will have to face Georgia Southern (road), Texas State (road), UL-Lafayette (road), Arkansas State (home), and UL-Monroe (road). The Aggies are a young team and should be able to continue improving while winning more than two games in 2015.
8. South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama has been a member of the Sun Belt since 2012 and made their first bowl game last year against Bowling Green in the Camellia Bowl. Joey Jones has been with South Alabama since they started back in 2009 while 2015 will probably be the most interesting season to date with only five total starters returning.
South Alabama has only three starters back on offense, but have a few UAB transfers coming in as well. Quarterback Cody Clements is one of those UAB transfers and he will also have his offensive coordinator coming over as well. Clements threw for 2,227 yards with 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in 2014. The duo of Xavier Johnson (438 yards and a touchdown) and Terrance Timmons (403 yards and 4 touchdowns) are returning at running back, but may be beat out by Dami Ayoola. The top wideout is also gone, but Danny Woodson (former Alabama player) caught 30 passes for 382 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. The UAB duo of DJ Vinson and Josh Magee are looking to team up with their former quarterback. There is another UAB transfer on the offensive line, which returns only two starters. The offense averaged 22.5 points and 376 yards last year and will probably be able to at least match that in 2015.
The defense has only two starters back from a unit that allowed 26.4 points and 399 yards per game. The defensive line is bereft of experienced starters with none back. The linebacker unit is the same, but does add in UAB transfer Kalen Jackson as well as Texas Tech transfer Blake Dees. The two starters back on defense reside in the secondary with Roman Buchanan and Antonio Carter. Buchanan was third on the team in tackles with 74 while also recording 3.5 tackles for loss and 7 pass breakups. The defense has little experience and will likely struggle to meet last year’s numbers.
South Alabama opens their season with Gardner-Webb at home before embarking on a two game road trip against Nebraska and San Diego State. They wrap up conference play against North Carolina State. They have a tough games in Sun Belt play against Arkansas State (home), Texas State (road), UL-Lafayette (home), Georgia Southern (road), and Appalachian State (home). South Alabama appears headed for a down year with only five starters back.
9. Troy Trojans
Troy has not been to a bowl game since 2010 when the destroyed Ohio in the New Orleans Bowl 48-21. Larry Blakeney had been head coach of Troy since 1991, but they have opted to move on and take NealBrown in as their top man.
Troy was not very good on offense last year with only 21.8 points and 363 yards per game. Seven starters return in the first year under Brown’s offense. Brandon Silvers threw for 1,836 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions while completing 70.5% of his passes. The top two running backs also return with Brandon Burks and Jordan Chunn. Burks ran for 584 yards and 3 touchdowns while Chunn ran for 505 yards and 6 touchdowns. The top wideout is also back in Bryan Holmes (34 catches for 474 yards and 5 touchdowns), but the production will need to improve from that unit. There are two starters back, but the offense should be able to match last year’s production at least in 2015.
Six starters are back from a unit that allowed 36.2 points and 454 yards per game in 2014. The defensive line has three starters back, but gave up 246 rushing yards per game in 2014. End Jamal Stadom was third on the team in tackles with 55 while also recording 4.5 sacks and 2 tackles for loss. The three starting linebackers are gone from last year’s team, but Terris Lewis was able to start three games en route to recording 25 tackles despite playing only five games. The secondary returns two starters in JaQuadrianLewis and Montres Kitchens while also adding in UAB transfer LaMarcus Farmer. The secondary should be solid again in 2015 after allowing 208 passing yards per game in 2014. The defense should improve in 2015 despite a new head coach.
Troy does not have an easy non-conference schedule. They open with a road game at North Carolina State, come home to face FCS Charleston Southern, and then goes on the road again to Wisconsin. They also face Mississippi State in Starkville on October 10. In conference, Troy will face Appalachian State (road), UL-Monroe (home), Georgia Southern (home), and UL-Lafayette (road). They also take on South Alabama (home) and New Mexico State (road) that could determine how high they finish. Troy should see improvement in 2015, but not good enough to make a bowl game.
10. Idaho Vandals
Idaho has not had sustained success since the 1990s and have only two bowl game appearances in school history. Their last, a 43-42 win over Bowling Green, came in the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl. Paul Petrino took over a very bad team and has gone a combined 2-21 in his first two years.
The offense will have six starters back from a unit that improved between 2013 and 2014. The offense put up only 18.2 points per game in 2013, but saw that number increase to 25 last year. Quarterback MattLinehan threw for 2,540 yards with 11 touchdowns, but also threw 18 interceptions. Elijhaa Penny ran for 589 yards and 12 touchdowns while splitting the carries and is likely to earn the number one reps. The wideouts see the top three depart from 2014, but back on the team is Dezmon Epps. Epps had 980 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2013. There are three starters back on the line and the Idaho offense should continue to improve.
The defense also has six starters back. Like the offense, they have also improved in Petrino’s first two seasons. They allowed 46.8 points and 529 yards per game in 2013 while dropping those numbers to 37.3 points and 463 yards per game. The two interior linemen return led by Quinton Bradley. Bradley had 52 tackles, 6 sacks, and 3.5 tackles for loss last season. Two linebackers return including 2014’s leading tackler Marc Millan. Millan had 102 tackles, 2 sacks, and 13 tackles for loss. The secondary has Jayshawn Jordan at cornerback and Russell Siavii returning. The defense will continue to improve this year, but may hold the Vandals back from doing even better.
Idaho will open their season with Ohio at home before a road game at USC and then another home game against Wofford. They will also face Auburn on the road on November 21. In conference, they have a very tough schedule with games against Georgia Southern (home), Arkansas State (road), UL-Monroe (home), Appalachian State (home), and Texas State (home). Idaho should be able to easily match two wins in 2015, which is the total number of wins under Petrino entering the season.
11. Georgia State Panthers
Georgia State started their football program in 2008 and played their first season in 2010. They went 9-13 in their first two season facing mainly FCS competition. Since joining the FCS’ Colonial Athletic Association in 2012 and then the Sun Belt in 2013, they have a combined record of 2-33. Trent Miles will be in his third season at the helm of Georgia State in 2015.
Miles will eight starters back on offense, but that is only the second highest number of returning starters on offense under his regime (9 in 2013). Nick Arbuckle won the starting job and threw for 3,283 yards with 23 touchdowns and 17 interception. He will be back to throw the ball all over the yard, but could use help from his tandem of running backs in Marcus Coffey and Kyler Neal. Coffey only ran for 354 yards and 3 touchdowns while Neal ran for 209 yards and a score (Neal suffered an MCL injury that caused him to miss the last 8 games. Those two were also the leading rushers on the team. Arbuckle will have his top two receivers from 2014 back with Donovan Harden (60 catches for 885 yards and 7 touchdowns) and Robert Davis (50 catches for 732 yards and 2 touchdowns). The offense put up 22.7 points and 375 yards per game in 2014. If the running game improves even slightly, they should easily surpass those numbers.
The defense was bad last year with only four returning starters. The unit gave up 43.3 points and 497 yards per game. Miles will have his most experienced defense in 2015 with nine starters returning. The entire defensive line is back including the entire two deep in this 3-4 defense. After giving up 303 yards rushing per game, it is safe to say GSU can only improve there. At linebacker, Joseph Peterson is back after leading the team in tackles with 93. He also added 3 sacks, 1 tackle for loss, and an interception. He will be joined by former Michigan player Kaleb Ringer. The secondary has all four starters back, but was not as bad as the numbers would indicate. They gave up only 194 passing yards per game, but did allow 68.1% completions against them. The defense should get better in 2015 compared to 2014.
Georgia State does have a chance to win a few games in 2015. They open with Charlotte at home before back-to-back road games at New Mexico State and Oregon. They face Liberty at home and then also face Ball State on the road to close out their non-conference schedule. The conference portion of their slate is daunting with the likes of Appalachian State, Arkansas State, UL-Lafayette, Texas State, South Alabama, Troy, and Georgia Southern. Georgia State will need an upset or two in order to break their three year double digit loss column streak.
The Sun Belt Conference is shaping up to be a wide-open race in 2015. Arkansas State, Texas State, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Louisiana-Lafayette could come out and win the conference. New Mexico State and South Alabama will look to finish in the middle of the pack while Troy, Idaho, and Georgia State will battle it out for the bottom spot. Below is the predicted order of finish.
1. Arkansas State
2. Texas State
3. Georgia Southern
4. Appalachian State
7. New Mexico State
8. South Alabama
11. Georgia State
Be sure to check out the FBS Independents preview as well as the next preview on Friday. We will be looking at the Big 12 Conference then.