The Wisconsin Badgers needed a huge second half rally to defeat their rivals Minnesota 31-17. The Badgers came into the game knowing they had already clinched the Big Ten West with Nebraska’s loss against Iowa on Friday. The win keeps Paul Bunyan’s Axe in Madison for the 13th straight year and was the 20th win in the last 22 meetings between the teams. The series is now tied at 59-59-8.
There were some good things from the Badgers (second half) and some bad things (first half). We will look at both the good and bad below.
1. Tale of two halves – The first half was terrible for the Badgers. Minnesota ran roughshod over Wisconsin’s defense while Mitch Leidner was able to do whatever he pleased. The offense was moved the ball during the first 30 minutes, but were plagued by drops. Jazz Peavy, Robert Wheelwright, Troy Fumagalli, and George Rushing all had pissed hit off their hands and fall incomplete. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook was knocked out of the game late in the second quarter after a big hit on the sideline The special teams even got in the act by giving up a big return that led to a touchdown. It seemed like the Badgers were letting their Playoff hopes disappear, but they trailed just 17-7 at the break.
First Half Stats:
Total Yards: M 226, W 144
Rush Yards: M 115, W 46
Third Down: M 2 of 6, W 2 of 6
Turnovers: M 0, W 0
TOP: M 14:37, W 15:23
Then came the second half that put the Badgers back on track. The defense had four interceptions (with three of those leading to short fields for the offense), Corey Clement had 2 rushing touchdowns, the team looked way better, and Andrew Endicott even made a field goal (albeit barely inside the upright). They responded to their deficit with incredible resolve.
For the game, Minnesota had 286 yards on offense (158 passing and 128 rushing). The Gophers went 3 of 14 on third down, had those 4 turnovers, and finished with 3.4 yards per carry.
2. The defense showed issues in the pass game – This sounds ironic considering the defense had 4 interceptions and the fact MitchLeidner had only 9 completions. However, there were some problems especially in the first half.
The secondary had issues against Purdue last week with receivers getting behind them. Well, that was an issue again this week in the first half. Luckily for the Badgers, the passes were dropped including one in the end zone by Drew Wolitarsky. The Gophers had 226 yards of offense in the first half with 115 of those coming in the air. Yes, the Badgers made the necessary adjustments, but they will be facing a more potent passing attack in Penn State next week that averages 251 yards per game passing.
Another first half performance like that from the Badgers and they may not be so lucky to be down just 10 at halftime.
3. Alex Hornibrook’s health – Alex Hornibrook took a big hit on the sideline late in the first half and his head hit the ground hard, which led to him going back to the locker room. He did not return after that and now the most important question is will he miss any more time and if so, how much? Hornibrook’s health comes first and foremost and Bart Houston can lead the offense if Hornibrook has to miss the Big Ten Championship.
It is hard to gauge the impact of Hornibrook missing time. The offense is run based and has been on a tear the last seven games averaging 230 yards per game on the ground. Both quarterbacks have been effective when they played. The downside to missing Hornibrook is Penn State potentially has to only focus on one quarterback instead of two.
4. Different ways to get the run game going – It goes without saying that the run game is key for Wisconsin. The Badgers are finding different ways to help the rushing attack. Last week it was screens (technically a pass, but it is really an extension of the run game) to Dare Ogunbowale, but those were not seen very much against Minnesota. Instead, it was end-arounds for Jazz Peavy (3 rushes for 83 yards) including a 71 yard run that set up Clement for his second touchdown. Peavy has been extremely effective (and efficient) this season in the run game with 180 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries (12.9 yards per carry average).
What will it be next week? Straight power runs from Corey Clement? Bradrick Shaw with his speed and power? More fullback dives from Alec Ingold and Austin Ramesh? Will it be back to the screen game with Ogunbowale? Or will Paul Chryst just keep going back to the well with Peavy on the end around? It may end up being a full combination of all those and then some.
The Badgers (10-2 overall and 7-2 in the Big Ten) will play next week in the Big Ten Championship game against Penn State. This will be the fourth time since the inception of the Big Ten’s Championship game that the Badgers will be in it. They previously defeated Michigan State 42-39 in 2011 and Nebraska 70-31 in 2012. They lost 59-0 to Ohio State in 2014. The game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana with a kickoff of 8 PM Eastern time.
Below are previous columns providing thoughts on each Wisconsin game this season.
Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 12
Week 11 saw the numbers two, three, and four all lose to shake up College Football Playoff rankings. Week 12 has some big games with #3 Louisville at Houston, #20 Washington State at #12 Colorado, #13 Oklahoma State at TCU, #21 Florida at #16 LSU, and #8 Oklahoma at #10 West Virginia.
We will focus on games that may not appear to offer much at first glance. These games might not have a national impact, but they could affect a team’s bowl chances or a conference title race. Note that these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.
1. Kansas State at Baylor (11/19 at 12 PM) – This game is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions. Kansas State has gone 2-1 since their crushing defeat to Oklahoma including a 6 point loss to Oklahoma State on November 5. At 5-4, a win for Kansas State will put them in a bowl game.
Baylor is 6-3 and have been thoroughly dismantled the last two weeks by a combined score of 46 to 107. They have lost three in a row and also lost Seth Russell to a gruesome injury against the Sooners. They do not have to worry about missing a bowl game, but this is a game where they can try to stem the terrible streak they are currently on.
2. Duke at Pittsburgh (11/19 at 3 PM) – Two teams enter this contest off of massive and surprising victories. Duke defeated then #17 North Carolina at home 28-27 to keep their bowl hopes alive. The Blue Devils are 4-6 overall and need to defeat both Pitt and Miami (FL) to reach a bowl.
Pittsburgh comes off the last second shock victory over #2 Clemson. The win put them at 6 victories to reach bowl eligibility, but this was a team that just struggled closing out games, especially on the road. They got it done versus the Tigers and this game will be interesting to see how each team plays off their big upset.
3. San Diego State at Wyoming (11/19 at 3:30 PM) – The Mountain West has two division leaders meeting here. San Diego State has already clinched the West Division and now just awaits to see which team from the Mountain Division they will play.
Wyoming was in the perfect spot to win the Mountain Division until last week’s triple overtime loss to UNLV 69-66 on the road. They had defeated Boise State 30-28 on October 29, but the loss erases their cushion. They are tied at 5-1 in MWC play with both Boise State and New Mexico. The Cowboys do control their own destiny as long as they win out against the Aztecs and New Mexico.
4. Northwestern at Minnesota (11/19 at 3:30 PM) – Northwestern’s season has been strange to say the least. They started 1-3 including losses to Western Michigan and Illinois State. They responded with three straight wins before losing to both highly ranked Ohio State and Wisconsin. They crushed Purdue last week to move to 5-5 and the Wildcats have a chance to secure a winning season with wins over Minnesota and Illinois to end the season. That did not seem remotely possible after September.
Minnesota has been quietly good this year. They sit at 7-3 overall and their 3 losses have all been by 7 points or less. The Gophers have an outside chance of winning 10 games but must defeat both Northwestern (home) and Wisconsin (road) as well as win their bowl game. That is a tall order, but this team will be a nuisance to end the year.
5. South Florida at SMU (11/19 at 7 PM) – South Florida is still in contention to win the AAC East Division, but they need another loss from Temple to do so. The Bulls lost 46-30 to the Owls on October 21. Their final two games are against SMU and Central Florida (home). They will certainly have a legitimate chance to go 7-1 in AAC play, but that may not be enough.
SMU is still alive for a bowl game at 5-5 overall, but their final two games are not easy. They play both South Florida and Navy at home, but those are two of the best teams in the conference. Should they win a game, the Mustangs would play in their first bowl game since the 2012 season.
6. Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (11/19 at 8 PM) – This is a big game for both teams. Ole Miss is coming off their surprising win at Texas A&M last week without Chad Kelly. The Rebels are 5-5 overall and still need to win one of their final two games to make a bowl game (the face Mississippi State next week at home).
Vanderbilt has a faint hope of making a bowl game, but will need a lot to go their way. They need to defeat both Ole Miss this week and Tennessee next week. Vandy’s defense will keep them in this game, but it is the offense that will need to come through to give the Commodores the shot at upsetting Tennessee and making a bowl game.
7. Tulsa at Central Florida (11/19 at 8 PM) – Both teams have already hit the 6 win mark and thus will be in a bowl game this year. Tulsa is not likely to win the AAC West (would need both Navy and Houston to lose out in conference play), but at 7-3 could win 10 games for the first time since 2012. Tulsa needs to win out against UCF and Cincinnati along with the bowl game to reach 10 wins.
Central Florida is a great story this year. After going 0-12 in 2015, they brought in Scott Frost and he paid immediate dividends by getting them back to a bowl game (UCF is currently 6-4). They could guarantee a winning season with a win against Tulsa or South Florida next week.
Check back next week for the week 13 edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.
Week five provided three games featuring matchups between top ten teams and two of them were excellent with Louisville and Clemson topping off the action in an instant classic that the Tigers won 42-36. There are not as many big time games this week, but there are still some good ones to watch.
Let’s take a look at some of the under the radar games for week six. Note, these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.
Edit: Tulane at Central Florida has been postponed until November 5 due to Hurricane Matthew.
1. Tulane at Central Florida (10/7 at 8 PM) – Tulane comes into this game on a two game winning streak while their two losses have been by a combined 10 points. The running game has nearly 2.5 times as many yards on offense than the passing game. Dontrell Hilliard (384 yards and 5 touchdowns), JoshRounds (266 yards and 4 touchdowns), Johnathan Brantley (156 yards), Lazedrick Thompson (153 yards and 3 touchdowns), and Glen Cuiellette (125 yards) have all had a big part in the rushing attack. Terren Encalade has come alive in the receiving corps the last two games with 14 catches for 228 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Central Florida has also won two in a row and the offense has come alive with an average of 50 points per game in those two contests. The Golden Knights have a more balanced offense, but starting quarterback job is still up for grabs between McKenzie Milton and Justin Holman. Eight different players have recorded a rushing touchdown though Dontravious Wilson has the lion’s share with 7.
The offenses have come alive for both teams in the previous two games, which could lead to quite a few points. Both teams enter this contest at 3-2 and a win here would help both teams in their quest to make a bowl game. UCF went 0-12 last year while Tulane has only been to a bowl game twice in the last 15 years (2002 and 2013).
2. Iowa at Minnesota (10/8 at 12 PM) – Despite this being a nationally televised on contest (will be on ESPN2, if their schedule is correct), this probably does not strike a lot of people a major game this weekend. Iowa has not been very good in their last three games, which includes losses to North Dakota State and Northwestern and an ugly 14-7 win over Rutgers. The loss to Northwestern last week was probably most surprising (yes, even more so than the loss to NDSU) because they gave up 38 points to a Northwestern team that was very lethargic the first four weeks on offense.
Minnesota opened 3-0 and lost a heartbreaker against Penn State last week in overtime. The Gophers took a 23-20 in the final minute of the game only to see Penn State hit a 40 yard field goal to tie the game and send it into overtime. The duo of running backs Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks (both had 100+ yards against PSU) along with quarterback Mitch Leidner will be looking to move the sticks against an Iowa team that has given up an average of 210 yards per game on the ground in the last three contests.
This game is big for both teams if they want to have a chance at winning the Big Ten West. Both already have a loss in conference play and still have to face Wisconsin and Nebraska later this year. This is basically an elimination game.
3. Air Force at Wyoming (10/8 at 3:30 PM) – Air Force comes into this game 4-0 with a win over Navy at home. Wyoming is 3-2 with losses on the road against Nebraska and Eastern Michigan, but the Cowboys are a much improved team since last year. Air Force has won four of the last five games on the road in this series as well.
Brian Hill has been a monster running the ball for Wyoming with 629 yards and 7 touchdowns this year (5.4 average per carry), but the key will be Josh Allen. In Wyoming’s two losses this year, Allen has 2 touchdowns against 6 interceptions, but in the three wins has thrown 6 touchdowns and no interceptions. He will need to be wary of throwing anywhere near Weston Steelhammer, who has 2 interceptions this year and led Air Force with 5 last season.
Both teams sit at 1-0 in the Mountain West with each team still having to go up against Boise State and in Wyoming’s case, they have to face San Diego State this year too. This could be a good game to watch.
4. Army at Duke (10/8 at 3:30 PM) – Army is 3-1 after an overtime loss on the road to Buffalo in week four while Duke could not back up their huge victory over Notre Dame on the road in week four. They lost last week to Virginia at home 34-20 and a bowl game looks out of reach for the Blue Devils now.
This is more focused on Army because a win here and they could open 7-1 going into the game against Air Force on November 5. After Duke, Army faces Lafayette and North Texas at home before a road game at Wake Forest on October 29. It will not be easy to go 7-1, but they can get closer with a win over Duke.
5. BYU at Michigan State (10/8 at 3:30 PM) – This game features two teams that are .500 or worse, which probably was not expected before the season. BYU sits at 2-3, but they have faced a tough gauntlet: Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, and Toledo. All of those teams were in a bowl game last season and the Cougars have been competitive in each of those games. Not a single one of their first five games has been decided by more than a field goal.
Michigan State started with a sluggish opening win over Furman before what was considered an impressive road victory against Notre Dame. The last two games for the Spartans have been disastrous with a big loss at home to Wisconsin 30-6 and then last week’s overtime loss at Indiana. BYU’s duo of Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams will have to like their chances after viewing the tape of the Michigan State-Indiana game.
6. Texas Tech at Kansas State (10/8 at 7 PM) – There are a lot of questions concerning this game. Will Texas Tech have Patrick Mahomes back? Can Kansas State shut down the Texas Tech offense, regardless of who is at quarterback? If Kansas State is leading late in the game again, can they close the game out?
Texas Tech is 3-1 with their lone blemish being the wild shootout in the desert where they lost 68-55 to Arizona State. They crushed an overmatched Kansas team last week with two different quarterbacks throwing four touchdowns apiece. As noted above, will Mahomes be back or will Nic Shimonek take over? It may not matter based on what we saw against Kansas.
The Wildcats are 2-2 with losses at Stanford and West Virginia. The game against the Mountaineers was particularly heart-wrenching because the Wildcats held a 16-3 lead after three quarters. They were stopping the West Virginia offense from getting any points time and time again only to see them score a touchdown. The Wildcats still had a chance to win, but Matthew McCrane missed a 43 yard field goal.
Kansas State will have the home field crowd behind them, but they will need to have another stellar defensive outing against a high powered offense.
7. UNLV at San Diego State (10/8 at 10:30 PM) – The Aztecs looked like a tough team to beat after three weeks, but last week sent them coming back to earth. They went on the road and got soundly defeated by South Alabama 42-24 with the offense converting just two of ten third downs.
UNLV sits at 2-3 with wins over Jackson State and Fresno State. Their losses have been to UCLA, Central Michigan, and Idaho. This game will be an excellent measuring stick for the Rebels to see how far they have come and how far they need to go. For San Diego State, they need to just continue giving the ball to DonnelPumphrey, who has 750 yards and 8 touchdowns on 98 carries (7.7 yards per carry average). In addition, they need to work on their pass defense as they have struggled against the pass at times this year.
Check back next week for the week seven edition of Under The Radar Games. In addition, you can find the previous columns below.
North Dakota State Uses Familiar Blueprint To Beat FBS Foes
Perhaps you heard the North Dakota State Bison defeated the #13 Iowa Hawkeyes 23-21 on Saturday. The Bison went in as 14.5 points underdogs and defeated the mighty Iowa team that went 12-2 and played in the Rose Bowl last season. This was the sixth straight victory for North Dakota State over an FBS opponent. Below is the North Dakota State record and future games versus FBS teams.
So how does North Dakota State consistently defeat their FBS foes? Well, let’s take a closer look.
Below are the averages between the Bison and their last six FBS opponents, which happens to be their current win streak against the FBS.
So how do the Bison defeat six straight FBS teams? Stop the run, force third and long situations, control the ball, and win the turnover battle.
First, the Bison like to stop the run and that is clear from the rushing yards given up (85.5 per game) and yards per carry average (2.9 per attempt). In fact, their highest rushing total allowed in the six games was 168 yards to Minnesota in 2011. Every other game has seen the Bison allow no more than 102 yards. The highest total yardage allowed by NDSU in the six games was 321 to Kansas State in 2013. The other five games all saw the Bison hold their opponent to fewer than 300 yards.
Notice at the bottom of the picture where it mentions the average yards to go on third down. Some calculations were needed, but the end result is clear: the Bison like to get their opponent in third and long, which becomes and obvious passing down. Common sense says it is a lot easier to prepare when you know what is coming from the other offense. The Bison also did better to defend third down as well allowing roughly 36% (4.5 converted out of 12.5 on average per game). The Bison converted about 50% of their third downs on offense, which helps immensely with time of possession.
Next up is controlling the ball and the Bison do this incredibly well. They held the ball for an average of 60% of the game and that is not an aberration. They won the time of possession battle in all six victories and the last four (Colorado State, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Iowa) saw them hold the ball above their 60% average. The longer NDSU holds the ball, the longer the opposing defense stays on the field and gets tired. Tiredness can lead to mistakes and frustration. It is demoralizing for a defense to be constantly battered without much rest and the Bison are great at this part.
Finally, we have reached the turnover part. The averages say the Bison have less than one turnover per game compared to two for their FBS opponent. Turnovers lead to more possessions, which leads to higher time of possession, more running, and basically everything NDSU loves to do. The Bison have not been perfect as they registered one turnover in four of the six games. The difference? The Bison never lost the turnover battle in the six wins and their “worst” result was against Iowa on Saturday when both teams finished with one turnover.
There is still more to the puzzle that is part of the blueprint, but they are not separated out in the box score. Those pieces would be the coaches game plan and execution by the players. How do you account for the things coaches see on film? How about when the player is in the right spot at the right time? Sure, it might end up as a turnover, but what about a blitz that is called out and picked up or a certain formation that is run? The Bison have been well prepared by Craig Bohl and Chris Klieman, but the players deserve credit for their execution too. They did not become 5-time FCS National Champions solely due to luck or by accident.
Iowa = Kansas State?
The light did not go on watching the North Dakota State-Iowa game as to how similar this game was to the Kansas State victory in 2013. NDSU took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter in both games, K-State and Iowa both responded by scoring at least two touchdowns, and the Bison needed a score late in the game to win. In addition, North Dakota State came in as a double digit underdog and reigning FCS Champions.
Look at those rushing stats. The Bison averaged 227 yards per game and gave up only 37.5. 37.5 yards per game against two upper level Power 5 conference opponents. Look at the time of possession. NDSU held the ball for 60%+ in each game. They ran about 40% more plays while also committing a grand total of 2 penalties for 20 yards in the two games. Coincidentally, the scores were nearly identical at 23-21 against Kansas State and 24-21 against Iowa.
Want to consistently pull upsets like North Dakota State? There is the blueprint and all you need to do is execute it like the Bison. Easier said than done.
Let’s enjoy this incredible run by the Bison both against FBS teams and in the FCS because these type of streaks do not happen very often.
Five Predictions For The Big 10 Conference In 2016
The 2016 College Football season is less a week away as Hawaii and California kick off on next week in Sydney, Australia. Below are five predictions for Big Ten Conference for the 2016 season. Some predictions will be right, some predictions will be wrong, and some will be spectacularly awful (or correct) by the end of the season.
There are no changes to the teams for the Big Ten Conference as the fourteen teams remain the same and are split into East and West Divisions. The seven teams in the East Division are Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State,and Rutgers. The seven teams in the West Division are Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue,and Wisconsin.
Here are five predictions for the Big Ten Conference in 2016:
1. Indiana will play in their second consecutive bowl game – The Hoosiers went 6-7 last year with a close loss in the highly entertaining Pinstripe Bowl against Duke 44-41. Now, Indiana will look to make back-to-back bowl games for the first time since the 1990 and 1991 seasons.
The offense has six starters back, but will lose both quarterback Nate Sudfeld and running back JordanHoward. Howard was hobbled with injuries in 2015, which allowed Devine Redding to get some big reps (finished with 1,012 yards and 9 touchdowns). Redding is back as are the top three receivers in Simmie Cobbs (60 catches for 1,035 yards and 4 touchdowns), Ricky Jones (54 catches for 905 yards and 5 touchdowns), and Mitchell Paige (57 catches for 684 yards and 6 touchdowns). No matter who wins the quarterback battle, they will have plenty of options to go to.
The defense took a step back in 2015 when they allowed 37.6 points and 509 yards per game. That was worse than 2014 when they gave up 32.8 pints and 434 yards per game. There are seven starters back, including the top five tacklers in 2015, along with a new defensive coordinator in Tom Allen (from South Florida). The numbers in 2016 should look more like 2014 than 2015 and possibly better than 2014.
The schedule is favorable for Indiana to reach another bowl game. They open on the road against Florida International before back-to-back home games against Ball State and Wake Forest with a 3-0 record looking likely. They do have a daunting Big Ten schedule to start: Michigan State (home), Ohio State (road), Nebraska (home), and Northwestern (road). The back part is much easier with Maryland (home), Rutgers (away), Penn State (home), Michigan (away), and Purdue (home). Wins against Maryland, Rutgers, and Purdue would give them six wins. Indiana might need an upset along the way if they stumble, but they are capable of getting it.
2. Northwestern’s Justin Jackson will lead the conference in rushing – Justin Jackson deserves to be in the upper echelon of running backs in the nation, but he is rarely mentioned with the best. In 2015, he finished second in the conference with 1,418 yards rushing behind only Ezekiel Elliott who had 1,821 yards on the ground.
Consider this: Jackson alone averaged 109 yards per game in 2015 while the Northwestern passing attack average 139 per game. Jackson had little help with the passing attack, was the main focal point of the offense (and conversely the main focal point for the defense), and still ran for over 100 yards per game.
The passing attack should be better in Clayton Thorson’s second season. He lost some playmakers in the receiving corps (Christian Jones, Dan Vitale, Miles Shuler), but the numbers will be better as long as he has progressed. Jackson will face Western Michigan, Illinois State, and Duke in his first three games while playing Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois in the final three games. Northwestern also faces Indiana in the middle of the season. As long as he stays healthy, Jackson should have a big year.
3. Wisconsin will not win 10 games – No prediction hurts more to make than this one. As a Wisconsin fan and someone who attended the school, it is always tough to make a prediction like this. But reality is too stark to ignore.
The Badgers lost defensive coordinator Dave Aranda, which is a huge loss. His defense never allowed more than 305 yards per game for a season, nor did they allow more than 21 points per contest over the course of a season. They get Justin Wilcox as a replacement from USC and he will have six starters to work with on defense. Wilcox is a solid guy as a DC, but he is not quite on the same level as Aranda.
The schedule is brutal for Wisconsin. They open with LSU (and face Aranda) in Green Bay before getting Akron and Georgia State at home. In Conference, they run a buzz saw from the start with Michigan State AND Michigan both at on the road. After a bye week they face Ohio State at home, Iowa on the road, Nebraska at home, and Northwestern on the road. They close out the season with Illinois (home), Purdue (away), and Minnesota (home). That is a demanding schedule to reach 10 wins, but I will still be hoping this prediction is wrong.
4. The winner of The Game will make the College Football Playoffs – This is a cop-out for having to pick the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game. It is really tough to pick a winner of that game because it does look like a pretty even game (though Ohio State does have a slight edge being at home as well as having won four in a row and 11 of the last 12 games). It looks likely that whichever team wins the Michigan-Ohio State game will be in the College Football Playoffs.
This prediction looks solid but there are some hurdles that need to be cleared. First, Michigan State plays both Michigan and Ohio State at home this season. Ohio State also faces Oklahoma on the road September 17 as well as Wisconsin and Penn State on the road in back-to-back games in October (15 and 22). The next two games after PSU are Northwestern and Nebraska at home before they end with Michigan State (road) and Michigan (home).
Michigan has a schedule that sets them up well this year, but there are a few challenging games. Like OSU, they play Penn State and Wisconsin in back-to-back games, but both are at home. They do have some possible trap games as well. After Michigan State on the road (Oct. 29), they play Maryland at home (Nov. 5) and then face Iowa on the road (Nov. 12). In between Iowa and Ohio State (Nov. 26) they have Indiana at home (Nov. 19). The Wolverines should handily win those games against Maryland and Indiana, but they cannot take those games lightly given their next opponent.
Looking at Ohio State and Michigan, they are the two best teams in the Big Ten. Michigan State might have something to say about that and even if either the Buckeyes or Wolverines win the Big Ten East, they still have to take care of business in the Big Ten Championship Game, which has proven to be a tough hurdle in the past for teams in position to make the Playoffs or National Championship.
5. Iowa will be pushed to the brink by North Dakota State – If this game were held in the Fargodome, this would be a prediction for an outright NDSU win. But then again, Iowa would not be scheduling a road game against an FCS opponent and FCS opponents will be a thing of the past for Big Ten teams in the near future.
North Dakota State will be going to Iowa City on September 17 in Iowa’s third game of the year. It is sandwiched between Iowa State (home) and the Big Ten opener against Rutgers (away). North Dakota State is the five time FCS National Champion, but their record against FBS teams is outstanding. They are 8-3 overall and have won five in a row against Kansas (6-3 in 2010), Minnesota (37-24 in 2011), Colorado State (22-7 in 2012), Kansas State (24-21 in 2013), and Iowa State (34-14 in 2014).
NDSU has a well known blueprint to beating teams: a strong rushing attack and offense that eats up the time of possession and a very good defense. Iowa boasts a strong defense as well, which could lead to a defensive game. If North Dakota State can grind out long possessions, they can make this game way too close for comfort and possibly pull off the upset.
The Prediction Schedule
With the Big Ten predictions above, predictions have been made for every conference with the exception of the SEC. Those predictions will be made next Saturday, August 27. Below are links to each of the conference predictions completed.
The second to last week in the Big Ten regular season saw all fourteen teams playing in conference clashes with the Big Ten East Division winner still to be decided. It was easy for Michigan State – win against Penn State and they would be playing in Indianapolis on December 5. For Michigan and Ohio State, they needed to win against each other and hope for a Michigan State loss.
#4 Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Result: Iowa Win 28-20 (Friday, November 27)
Iowa went on the road and took care of business against Nebraska to move into the Big Ten Championship Game undefeated.
C.J. Beathard was far from impressive throwing the ball going 9 of 16 for 97 yards and a touchdown. However, Jordan Canzeri picked up the slack with 140 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries. George Kittle had 2 catches for 35 yards and the lone receiving touchdown. Iowa put up just 250 yards of offense and did not convert a single one of their 9 third down attempts.
Iowa’s defense was the story as they forced four turnovers, all interceptions. Parker Hesse’s pick was excellent as he stepped in front of the pass at the four yard line, tipped the ball to himself, and easily scored the touchdown. Greg Mabin, Josey Jewell, and Cole Fisher all intercepted passes as well.
Tommy Armstrong did not have a good game for Nebraska throwing for 296 yards and those 4 picks on 25 of 45 passing. He did rush for 46 yards on 9 carries while Imani Cross had 19 carries for 55 yards and 2 scores. Cethan Carter led the Huskers with 4 catches for 76 yards while Brandon Reilly had 3 grabs for 50 yards. Jordan Westerkamp was held to only 2 catches for 41 yards. The Huskers were able to put up 433 yards of offense, but the turnovers hurt them. The Huskers did go 7 of 16 on third down.
Iowa (12-0, 8-0) will play Michigan State on Saturday to decided the Big 10 Champion. The winner is practically guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoffs.
Nebraska (5-7, 3-5) is not guaranteed a bowl spot, but could end up going to one anyway due to a lack of 6 win teams.
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes at #10 Michigan Wolverines
Result: Ohio State Win 42-13
A week after a horrendous offense performance for Ohio State, they responded by crushing the Wolverines with a massive rushing performance.
JT Barrett went 9 of 15 for 113 yards and a touchdown through the air, but this game was all about the ground attack for the Buckeyes. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 carries a week after he inexplicably had only 12 carries for 33 yards. Barrett also had his fun running the ball with 19 carries for 139 yards and 3 scores. Michael Thomas was the top receiver with 2 catches for 50 yards. Ohio State put up 482 yards on one of the top defense in college while going 7 of 13 on third down.
Jake Rudock had a decent game going 19 of 32 for 263 yards and a touchdown. He had no problem finding Jehu Chesson 8 times for 111 yards and a touchdown. Amara Darboh had 68 yards on 4 catches while Jake Butt had 5 grabs for 54 yards. The running game was virtually non-existent with 25 rushes for 57 yards as a team for the entire game. Michigan had 364 yards of offense and was a solid 9 of 18 on third downs.
Ohio State (11-1, 7-1) will not be playing in the Big 10 Championship, but will probably end up in a New Year’s 6 Bowl. Michigan (9-3, 6-2) finished a very good first year under Jim Harbaugh and will probably end up in a January bowl game.
Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers
Result: Indiana Win 54-36
Indiana had an offensive explosion against Purdue to get them into a bowl game. There was not a lot of defense played in this contest on either side.
Nate Sudfeld went 18 of 29 for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns while also had another touchdown rushing. No Jordan Howard for Indiana? No problem as Devine Redding had 144 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries and the Hoosiers ran for 309 yards as a team. Ricky Brookins had 64 yards rushing while Andrew Wilson also had 52 yards and a score on 15 carries.
Mitchell Paige had 5 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown, Simmie Cobbs had 5 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, and Andre Brooker had only one catch, but it was a 72 yard touchdown. Indiana put up 659 yards of offense and went 5 of 15 on third down. The defense also forced four turnovers, which the offense turned into only 3 points.
Purdue did not play poorly on offense, but they did have 4 turnovers. Austin Appleby had 332 yards, two touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 36 of 57 passing. Appleby also ran for two scores while Markell Jones had 16 carries for 96 yards and a touchdown. Four Purdue receivers had at least 5 catches and 50 yards (Danny Anthrop, DeAngelo Yancey, Domonique Young, and Cameron Posey), but the two touchdown catches came from Jordan Jurasevich and Cole Herdman. Purdue put up 486 yards of offense and went 6 of 16 on third down.
Indiana (6-6, 2-6) has finally reached bowl eligibility for the first time since 2007 when they played in the Insight Bowl. Purdue (2-10, 1-7) finished with a worse record than 2014 when they went 3-9. Under DarrellHazell, the team is 6-30, but opted to keep him for 2016 season.
Maryland Terrapins at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Result: Maryland Win 46-41
Despite having no bowl implications, this game was one of the more entertaining ones of the week as Maryland came back from a 31-10 deficit to win 46-41 on a touchdown in the final five minutes of the contest.
Caleb Rowe went 16 of 32 for 239 yards passing with no touchdowns or interceptions. The run game was great for Maryland as Brandon Ross ran for 173 yards and 3 touchdowns on 28 carries. Rowe had 7 carries for 98 yards, Ty Johnson was incredibly efficient with 2 carries for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Kenneth Goins had one carry for 42 yards and a touchdown.
Jahrvis Davenport led the team in receiving with 7 catches for 89 yards, DeAndre Lane had 4 grabs for 63 yards, and D.J. Moore caught 4 passes for 49 yards. Maryland had 656 yards of offense and went 5 of 15 on third down.
Rutgers had a good day on offense as well, but lost a 21 point lead. Chris Laviano went 21 of 33 for 344 yards with 4 touchdowns and a pick. Paul James had 17 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown, Josh Hicks had 61 yards on 10 carries, and Robert Martin had 16 carries for 42 yards. Leonte Carroo ended his season the way he started: with a big game. Carroo had 7 catches for 183 yards and a touchdown while Janarion Grant caught 4 passes for 56 yards and a score. Rutgers had 530 yards of offense and went 3 off 11 on third down.
Maryland (3-9, 1-7) and Rutgers (4-8, 1-7) will both be home for the bowl season and will also be looking for new head coaches for 2016.
Penn State Nittany Lions at #5 Michigan State Spartans
Result: Michigan State Win 55-16
With a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game on the line, Michigan State did not just take care of Penn State, they destroyed them.
Christian Hackenberg went 22 of 39 for 257 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions while SaquonBarkley ran 17 times for 103 yards. Chris Godwin had a good day catching 11 passes for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns while DaeSean Hamilton had 8 catches for 78 yards and Saeed Blacknall had one catch for 77 yards. Penn State had 418 yards of offense and went 5 of 15 on third down. Penn State went an excellent 4 of 5 on fourth downs as well.
Connor Cook came back from injury for the Spartans to go 19 of 26 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Spartans as a team had a solid rushing attack with 38 carries for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns. The touchdowns came from Gerald Holmes, LJ Scott, and center Jack Allen. Aaron Burbridge had 6 catches for 75 yards and his touchdown was spectacular as he took a hit and spun twice to reach the end zone. The Spartans had little trouble on third down going 8 of 11 and had 436 yards of offense.
Penn State (7-5, 4-4) had a terrible ending to the season losing their final three games. Michigan State (11-1, 7-1) has a date with Iowa on Saturday in the Big Ten Championship Game. The winner will all but be guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoffs.
#16 Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini
Result: Northwestern Win 24-14
Northwestern got out to a comfortable 21-7 halftime lead and held on from there to prevent in-state rival Illinois from reaching 6-6 on the year.
Clayton Thorson went 12 of 25 for 146 yards with a touchdown pass and an interception. Justin Jackson had his eighth 100 yard rushing game going for 172 yards and a touchdown on 37 attempts. Warren Long had 25 yards and a score on 5 carries as well. Austin Carr had 3 catches for 61 yards, MilesShuler hauled in 2 passes for 39 yards, and Dan Vitale had 3 catches for 32 yards and the lone receiving touchdown. Northwestern finished with 350 yards of offense and went 6 of 19 on third down.
Wes Lunt went 20 of 41 for 241 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, but ran for a score. Ke’Shawn Vaughn had 12 carries for 62 yards while Josh Ferguson had 14 carries for 40 yards and caught 7 passes for 100 yards. Desmond Cain had 4 grabs for 52 yards, Malik Turner had 3 caches for 46 yards, and Geronimo Allison had 5 grabs for 42 yards. Illinois had 319 yards and went 6 of 18 on third down.
Northwestern (10-2, 6-2) has reached double digit wins for the first time since 2012 when they went 10-3. In that year, Northwestern also won their bowl game. Illinois (5-7, 2-6) is not bowl eligible, but like Nebraska, may still be part of a bowl due to the lack of 6 win teams in the FBS.
Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Result: Wisconsin Win 31-21
A rivalry game between Wisconsin and Minnesota saw the Badgers’ rushing game get back on track.
Joel Stave’s first pass of the game was returned for a touchdown and the Badgers opted to keep the ball on the ground after that. Stave went 9 of 17 for 79 yards, no touchdowns, and the aforementioned pick. Dare Ogunbowale had his best game of the season with 33 carries for 155 yards and a touchdown. He looked much better this week with more decisive cuts, power running, and shiftiness. Taiwan Deal also had a good game with 90 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries. Alex Erickson was the leading receiver with 6 catches for 66 yards.
The Badgers defense was excellent forcing 5 turnovers against Minnesota. Tanner McEvoy had 2 interceptions, Joe Schobert forced a fumble and recovered a separate one, and Darius Hillary had 2 fumble recoveries. Corey Clement did not travel with the team due to an incident on Wednesday.
Mitch Leidner went 16 of 37 for 223 yards with a touchdown and three picks while being held to only 10 yards rushing on 6 carries. Rodney Smith had 7 rushes for 35 yards and a touchdown while ShannonBrooks was limited to 8 yards on 5 carries. Brooks was the top receiver with 3 catches for 53 yards while Nick Hart had 3 receptions for 45 yards. The Badgers did a good job limiting KJ Maye to 5 catches for 45 yards and Drew Wolitarsky had 2 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. Minnesota finished with 276 yards, were 3 of 12 on third down, and missed both fourth down conversions.
Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2) finished third in the West Division, but still have a chance at 10 wins in the bowl game. Minnesota (5-7, 2-6) endured a tough season with the loss of their head coach midway through the season, but could still end up in a bowl game if there are not enough 6 win teams.
The Big Ten had six conference games and one non-conference game in week 12. Once again, a team from Michigan was in the spotlight with Michigan State at Ohio State. Each game is looked at below.
Purdue Boilermakers at #5 Iowa Hawkeyes
Result: Iowa Win 40-20
Iowa got out to a big early lead and then kept the pesky Purdue Boilermakers at bay to keep their perfect season intact. The Hawkeyes also formally clinched the Big Ten West Division to reserve their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game against a yet to be determined team from the East division.
Purdue’s Austin Appleby had a solid game going 23 of 40 for 259 yards and a touchdown in relief after an injury to David Blough. Markell Jones ran for 87 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. DeAngeloYancey led Purdue with 9 catches for 117 yards while Domonique Young had 4 grabs for 52 yards. Purdue did manage to put up 405 yards of offense thanks to playing from behind for the entire game. They went 4 of 18 on third down, but a solid 5 of 8 on fourth down.
C.J. Beathard was good again going 12 of 20 for 213 yards with 3 touchdowns and no picks. JordanCanzeri had 95 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. LeShun Daniels ran for 2 touchdowns and 31 yards on 8 carries. HenryKrieger Coble had 4 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown while TevaunSmith had 4 receptions for 73 yards. Iowa had 387 yards on offense and went 5 of 10 on third down.
Purdue (2-9, 1-6) will finish their season at home against Indiana battling for the Old Oaken Bucket. Iowa (11-0, 7-0) faces Nebraska on the road on Black Friday.
#12 Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions
Result: Michigan Win 28-16
Michigan had a consistent effort on the road to defeat Penn State and keep their hopes of a Big Ten East title alive.
Jake Rudock went 25 of 38 for 256 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. The Wolverines rushing attack was ineffective against Penn State. De’Veon Smith was the top rusher with 39 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries while Michigan had just 87 yards on 30 carries as a team. Jehu Chesson led the team with 4 catches for 69 yards, but Amara Darboh (7 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown) and JakeButt (5 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown) also had good games. Michigan finished with 343 yards on offense and went 7 of 14 on third down.
Penn State struggled on offense and also struggled putting the ball in the end zone. ChristianHackenberg went 13 of 31 for 137 yards and a touchdown, but struggled mightily with accuracy. SaquonBarkley ran for 68 yards on 15 carries while also having 2 grabs for 19 yards. Chris Godwin led Penn State with 3 catches for 51 yards while Saeed Blacknall had a 25 yard touchdown catch in his only reception of the game. Penn State settled for 3 field goals in the red zone and only had 207 yards of offense. They went 3 of 14 on third down and 1 of 2 on fourth down.
Michigan (9-2, 6-1) will take on Ohio State at home next week. Michigan is tied atop the Big Ten East at 6-1 with both Ohio State and Michigan State. Michigan will need a loss by Michigan State as well as to beat Ohio State to make the Big Ten Championship Game.
Penn State (7-4, 4-3) will be on the road against Michigan State with a chance to ruin the Spartans Big Ten title hopes with a win.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Army Black Knights
Result: Rutgers Win 31-21
Rutgers was playing in the only non-conference game of the week and took care of Army on the road.
Chris Laviano went 13 of 21 for 105 yards with no touchdowns or picks. The rushing attack was excellent for Rutgers with Paul James leading the way. He had 116 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 carries while Robert Martin had 99 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Janarion Grant had only 2 carries, but managed to run for 40 yards. Grant also had 3 catches for 31 yards while Leonte Carroo had 4 catches for 37 yards. Rutgers had 395 yards of offense, but struggled on third down going 3 of 10. They did managed to convert both of their fourth down attempts.
Rutgers defense struggled to stop the run, but that is expected against Army who runs the triple option. They allowed 261 yards on 52 attempts, but were burned on the six passing attempts by Army. Army went 4 of 6 passing for 140 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Edgar Poe had 2 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. Army also converted 9 of 13 on third down and 1 of 2 on fourth down. Rutgers gave up 401 yards of offense to Army.
Rutgers (4-7, 1-6) finishes their season next Saturday with Maryland coming to town.
Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins
Result: Indiana Win 47-28
Indiana had big second and third quarters to propel them to a 47-28 win over Maryland and leave them one game from bowl eligibility going into the regular season finale. Indiana put up 37 points in the middle two quarters compared to just 7 for Maryland during the same time frame.
Nate Sudfeld had a big game going 23 of 35 for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns. He did not throw an interception and also ran for a touchdown. Devine Redding stepped up to rush for 130 yards on 24 carries after an injury knocked Jordan Howard out of the game early in the contest. Simmie Cobbs easily led the team and entire game with 9 catches for 192 yards. Andre Booker caught 2 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown while Mitchell Paige had 5 catches for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns. Indiana racked up 555 yards, but struggled on third down going just 4 of 14.
Maryland could not find any rhythm in the passing game between Caleb Rowe and Shane Cockerille. Rowe left the game in the second quarter after a concussion. Rowe finished 10 of 19 for 88 yards with a touchdown while also rushing for 27 yards on 4 carries. Cockerille went 10 of 21 for 87 yards while also rushing for 23 yards on 13 carries. Brandon Ross had a massive game rushing going for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground for the best game of 2015 and his career. Levern Jacobs led Maryland with 4 catches for 50 yards. The Terps went 3 of 16 on third down and also went 2 of 6 on fourth down.
Indiana (5-6, 1-6) faces Purdue next week on the road with their final chance at making a bowl in 2015. Maryland (2-9, 0-7) will face Rutgers on the road with neither team having a chance at making a bowl.
#20 Northwestern Wildcats at #25 Wisconsin Badgers
Result: Wisconsin Win 13-7
A defensive battle between Northwestern and Wisconsin saw a tight finish in a controversial game. The Badgers had a punt return touchdown called back due to an illegal fair catch and also had a touchdown overturned in the final minute.
Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson was largely ineffective going 9 of 20 for only 60 yards. Justin Jackson was the workhorse for the Wildcats with 35 carries for 139 yards and a touchdown. GarrettDickerson had 2 catches for 24 yards as the Wildcats leading receiver. Northwestern finished with 209 yards of offense and went 7 of 20 on third down.
Wisconsin was led by Joel Stave going for 229 yards on 20 of 34 passing. He also threw 2 interceptions and also lost a fumble. He missed the final play of the game for Wisconsin as he took a sack with the Badgers on the 1 yard line of Northwestern and left due to concussion like symptoms. The Badgers were completely ineffective running the ball. Corey Clement went for 24 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, but the Badgers finished with NEGATIVE 26 yards rushing due to Stave taking so many sacks.
Jazz Peavy had 5 catches for 88 yards, but his touchdown catch in the final minute was overturned because he did not complete the process of a catch. Tanner McEvoy had 5 catches for 57 yards, but lost a fumble on one of those catches. Wisconsin finished with only 203 yards of offense, had 5 turnovers, and went a poor 2 of 13 on third down.
Northwestern (9-2, 5-2) faces Illinois at home on Saturday with a chance to get their second 10 win season under Pat Fitzgerald (2012). Wisconsin (8-3, 5-2) faces Minnesota on the road next week with a chance of winning 10 games for fifth time in the last 7 seasons. A win over Minnesota and their bowl opponent will get them to the 10 win mark.
#9 Michigan State Spartans at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes
Result: Michigan State Win 17-14
The game of the day for the Big Ten belonged to Michigan State and Ohio State. The Spartans won by a field goal despite not having quarterback Connor Cook.
Tyler O’Connor got the start in place of Cook and went 7 of 12 for 89 yards and a touchdown. GeraldHolmes ran for 65 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries while LJ Scott had 13 carries for 58 yards. The Spartans relied heavily on their rushing attack to the tune of 203 yards on 51 carries. Aaron Burbridge led the team with 4 catches for 62 yards while four others recorded a reception. Trevon Pendleton had the lone touchdown reception for the Spartans as they finished with 294 yards on offense and went 7 of 15 on third down.
Ohio State could hardly get anything going on offense. JT Barrett went 9 of 16 passing for 46 yards and a touchdown. Barrett was also the leading rusher for Ohio State with 44 yards on 15 carries. Ezekiel Elliott inexplicably had only 12 carries and went for 33 yards and a touchdown. Jalin Marshall was the top receiver with 2 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown. Ohio State had only 132 yards of offense and went 4 of 14 on third down.
Michigan State (10-1, 6-1) controls their destiny in the Big Ten East. They face Penn State at home on Saturday and a win would put them in the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa.
Ohio State (10-1, 6-1) will face Michigan on the road next week. They need a win over Michigan and a loss by Michigan State to play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Result: Minnesota Win 32-23
The battle for two bowl hopefuls ended with Minnesota coming out on top as both teams now sit at 5-6 on the season.
Wes Lunt went 34 of 47 for 279 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception for Illinois. Josh Ferguson led the Illini in rushing with 105 yards on 20 carries while Kendrick Foster got his most significant playing time to post 56 yards rushing on 11 carries. Malik Turner led the team with 11 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. Illinois finished with 433 yards of offense and went 8 of 17 on third down, but also committed 3 turnovers.
Mitch Leidner did not have anywhere near the same passing efficiency in his past four games, but that did not hurt the Gophers. He finished 15 of 25 for 88 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 64 yards on 10 carries. Shannon Brooks ran wild all game with 174 yards and 3 touchdowns on 17 carries. KJ Maye had a quiet game going for 31 yards on 4 catches while Drew Wolitarsky had 2 catches for 26 yards and Brandon Lingen had 3 catches for 20 yards. Minnesota put up 343 yards of offense while going 7 of 13 on third down.
Illinois (5-6, 2-5) will need to beat Northwestern in Chicago to reach a bowl game in 2015. Minnesota (5-6, 2-5) is in the same position of needing a win against Wisconsin, but they will be at home.
Check back next Sunday for a roundup of the Big Ten’s final full week of the regular season.