Brazil 2014 – Part 3: Odds and Predictions

This is the third post in a series leading up to the 2014 World Cup to be held in Brazil. The first post can be found here and the second post here.

In the first post of this series I posted the odds for each team to win the World Cup prior to the draw (odds were taken from 5Dimes). For a refresher, here is that table:

 

Team Odds
Brazil  +300
Germany  +560
Argentina  +660
Spain  +680
Belgium  +1650
Netherlands  +2150
Colombia  +2350
Italy  +2450
England  +2550
Uruguay  +2850
France  +3250
Portugal  +3450
Chile  +4450
Russia  +10500
Switzerland  +14500
Ghana  +15000
Croatia  +16000
Mexico  +16500
Japan  +17000
USA  +18000
Ivory Coast  +21000
Bosnia and Herzegovina  +22500
Ecuador  +24000
Nigeria  +29000
Greece  +35000
South Korea  +50000
Cameroon  +70000
Australia  +70000
Costa Rica  +225000
Iran  +250000
Honduras  +250000
Algeria  +250000

As you can see, the top 4 favorites were Brazil (+300), Germany (+560), Argentina (+660), and Spain (+680). All other teams were at +1650 or higher. Now let’s see how the draw affected those odds (again odds from 5Dimes):

 

Brazil   +330
Argentina   +490
Germany   +610
Spain   +775
Belgium   +1550
Colombia   +2150
France   +2250
Netherlands   +2850
England   +2850
Italy   +2850
Uruguay   +2950
Portugal   +3700
Chile   +5350
Russia   +8875
Switzerland   +12500
Ecuador   +13500
Mexico   +15000
Ivory Coast   +16500
Japan   +18500
Bosnia and Herzegovina   +23500
USA   +25000
Ghana   +25000
Croatia   +26500
Nigeria   +28500
Greece   +34000
South Korea   +48500
Australia   +80500
Cameroon   +100000
Costa Rica   +250000
Iran   +250000
Honduras   +250000
Algeria   +250000

 

Brazil’s odds went up to +330 despite the opponents they drew in their group. The slight bump in odds has entirely to do with their possible Round of 16 opponent which will almost certainly be Netherlands, Spain, or Chile. Argentina, which was already a favorite to win, dropped from +660 to +490. This is for good reason too. They got drawn with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, and Nigeria.

Below is a table that shows each team’s odd before and after the draw. Also is a column for the odds change that occurred.

 

Team Prior Draw Odds Post Draw Odds   Odds Change
Brazil  +300   +330 +30
Germany  +560   +610 +50
Argentina  +660   +490 -170
Spain  +680   +775 +95
Belgium  +1650   +1550 -100
Netherlands  +2150   +2850 +700
Colombia  +2350   +2150 -200
Italy  +2450   +2850 +400
England  +2550   +2850 +300
Uruguay  +2850   +2950 +100
France  +3250   +2250 -1000
Portugal  +3450   +3700 +250
Chile  +4450   +5350 +900
Russia  +10500   +8875 -1625
Switzerland  +14500   +12500 -2000
Ghana  +15000   +25000 +10000
Croatia  +16000   +26500 +10500
Mexico  +16500   +15000 -1500
Japan  +17000   +18500 +1500
USA  +18000   +25000 +7000
Ivory Coast  +21000   +16500 -4500
Bosnia and Herzegovina  +22500   +23500 +1000
Ecuador  +24000   +13500 -10500
Nigeria  +29000   +28500 -500
Greece  +35000   +34000 -1000
South Korea  +50000   +48500 -1500
Cameroon  +70000   +100000 +30000
Australia  +70000   +80500 +10500
Costa Rica  +225000   +250000 +25000
Iran  +250000   +250000 0
Honduras  +250000   +250000 0
Algeria  +250000   +250000 0

 

Odds to Win Group

Here I will list each teams odds to win their respective group. As before, these odds are from 5Dimes.

Group A

Brazil   -350
Mexico   +650
Croatia   +875
Cameroon   +2150

Group B

Spain   -130
Netherlands   +200
Chile   +475
Australia   +2700

Group C

Colombia   -135
Japan   +350
Ivory Coast   +460
Greece   +700

Group D

Italy   +160
Uruguay   +195
England   +215
Costa Rica   +4000

Group E

France   -145
Switzerland   +310
Ecuador   +340
Honduras   +2800

Group F

Argentina   -430
Bosnia   +595
Nigeria   +830
Iran   +3000

Group G

Germany   -180
Portugal   +260
Ghana   +1050
USA   +1075

Group H

Belgium   -180
Russia   +230
South Korea   +750
Algeria   +2500

 

Super-Duper Early Predictions

I will pick the finish of each group as I see them right now. These are subject to change many times over until the start of the World Cup.

Group A

1st – Brazil

2nd – Croatia

3rd – Mexico

4th – Cameroon

Group B

1st – Spain

2nd – Chile

3rd – Netherlands

4th – Australia

Group C

1st – Colombia

2nd – Ivory Coast

3rd – Japan

4th – Greece

Group D

1st – Italy

2nd – Uruguay

3rd – England

4th – Costa Rica

Group E

1st – Colombia

2nd – Switzerland

3rd – France

4th – Honduras

Group F

1st – Argentina

2nd – Nigeria

3rd – Bosnia and Herzegovina

4th – Iran

Group G

1st – Germany

2nd – Ghana

3rd – Portugal

4th – United States

Group H

1st – Russia

2nd – Belgium

3rd – South Korea

4th – Algeria

I will skip to the Semi-final match ups where I have Brazil vs Germany in one and Italy vs Argentina in the other. I like Brazil and Italy to meet p in the final with Italy coming out on top. Again this is subject to change (and probably will as we learn more about each team’s squad).

Be sure to check back often for part 4 and other blog posts!

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