2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf – 1 1/4 Miles Turf (Race 5, Post Time: 12:43 Pacific Time)
1. Dank (GB) (5-2) – Her last race in the Grade 1 Beverly D was spectacular and that is why she is the morning line favorite for this race. She absolutely flew by leaders in the stretch to win by an impressive 4 1/4 lengths. She should get another fantastic trip in this race and is the one to beat.
2. Romantica (GB) (6-1) – She has spent her entire career in France and has 4 wins from 10 starts. She is a Group 1 winner in France as 2 races back she beat 5 others to win the Darley Prix Jean Romanet. She loves this distance of 10 Furlongs as she has 3 wins and a second from 4 starts. She also sports a couple of wins over firm turf. She has the looks of a strong upset possibility in this race.
3. Tiz Flirtatious (7-2) – Of the North American based horses, I think she has the best chance at winning. She is spectacular form having won 4 of her 5 starts this year and she absolutely loves the Santa Anita turf course, also having 4 wins from 5 starts. She is working lights out in the morning and will have a big say in this race. Must use on top.
4. Alterite (FR) (10-1) – Since her arrival in the U.S. she has been very impressive. She won her 1st start in the Grade 1 Garden City, then followed that up with a 2nd place finish by a neck in the Grade 1 QE II at Keeneland. She has only 1 start at this distance, a 2nd place finish by a nose in a Group 1 race in France. She’s an interesting long shot in this race who can definitely add value to the exotics.
5. Lady of Shamrock (20-1) – She participated in this race last year where she finished 5th beaten 2 1/2 lengths. Since then she has raced 6 six times this year and won 1 time via disqualification. She has run well in defeat this year, but I she needs to step up her game if she wants to compete with this field.
6. Marketing Mix (7-2) – She ran against Dank in the Beverly D where she finished 4th by 5 3/4 lengths. She followed that race up with a 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive in which she lost by a head to Tiz Flirtatious. She should get a good trip in this race and she has been in the exacta 5 times in 6 starts at this distance. After watching her Beverly D again, I was disappointed that she did not finish better in that race. I do not like her value on Saturday against these horses. I will limit her to underneath in the exotics.
7. Laughing (IRE) (8-1) – She has been on a roll this year with her 4 for 4 record, all of those in Graded Stakes company (2 Grade 1’s, a Grade 2, and a Grade 3). We know what she is going to do and that is go to lead and try to slow them down. And to be honest, it just might work as I do not see any other horse that will go to lead. She might just be able to steal this race on the front end. Don’t sell short from the win angle.
8. Emollient (12-1) – This gal has had an interesting year. She won on dirt, Polytrack, and Turf along with 3 Grade 1 races. Her last race was in the Grade 1 Spinster over Polytrack where she came from well off the pace to run by all her rivals. She does have a win at this distance, but I am not sure where she is going to be placed. She has tactical speed, but will it be used properly? I’m not sold on her chances against this salty group.
9. Qushchi (GB) (20-1) – She ran 4th behind last time out in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational. The horse she was following that day? Laughing who is also in this race. I think she wants more distance than the 10 furlongs she is getting today and I do not think she will do enough to contend. Pass.
10. Kitten’s Dumplings (10-1) – Last time out she beat fellow rival Alterite in the Grade 1 QE II at Keeneland. This will be her 1st start against older horses and her 1st start at a mile and a quarter. I do not like her chances in this race.
Bets
Depending on which horse has the better odds, I will play either #2 Romantica or #7 Laughing. I will also use both of those horses and wheel them up and down in exactas with the 1-3-4-6.