2015 Kentucky Derby Preview

2015 Kentucky Derby Preview

The 141st Kentucky Derby is almost here. A field of 20 is expected to run and it is a loaded race. The field of three year olds will be going a mile and a quarter (10 furlongs) over the main track.

Post time is scheduled for 6:34 PM Eastern Time and the Derby is carded as the eleventh of thirteen races on the afternoon. The purse for the race is $2,000,000.

#11 Stanford has scratched out of the race allowing in #21 Frammento to draw in. Free past performances can be found here.

Below is a table that summarizes the entries for the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

Post PositionHorseJockeyTrainerMorning Line Odds
1Ocho Ocho OchoElvis TrujilloJames Cassidy50-1
2Carpe DiemJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher8-1
3MaterialityJavier CastellanoTodd Pletcher12-1
4TencendurManuel FrancoGeorge Weaver30-1
5Danzig MoonJulien LeparouxMark Casse30-1
6MubtaahijChristophe SoumillonMike de Kock20-1
7El KabeirCalvin BorelJohn Terranova30-1
8DortmundMartin GarciaBob Baffert3-1
9BoloRafael BejaranoCarla Gaines30-1
10Firing LineGary StevensSimon Callaghan12-1
11 (SCRATCHED)StanfordFlorent GerouxTodd PletcherSCRATCHED
12International StarMiguel MenaMike Maker20-1
13ItsaknockoutLuis SaezTodd Pletcher30-1
14Keen IceKent DesormeauxDale Romans50-1
15FrostedJoel RosarioKiaran McLaughlin15-1
16War StoryJoe TalamoTom Amoss50-1
17Mr. ZRamon VazquezD. Wayne Lukas50-1
18American PharoahVictor EspinozaBob Baffert5-2
19UpstartJose OrtizRick Violette15-1
20Far RightMike SmithRon Moquett30-1
21FrammentoCorey NakataniNick Zito50-1
22 (Also-eligible)Tale Of VerveBrian Hernandez Jr.Dallas Stewart50-1

 

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho – He had the misfortune of drawing the rail here. He won the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot at two, but his rider for that race, Mike Smith, saw fit to jump over to Far Right afterwards. He is a cut below these horses and will need a lot to go his way. Pass on his chances in this race.

2. Carpe Diem – He is still listed as one of the morning line favorites for this race despite the poor draw. He has been solid in his career with four wins and a second in five career races. He was second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two year old after he broke slowly compared to the others. That may be the case again here and it is hard to endorse him from the win angle. He could still hit the board, but he will need to work out a trip from this spot.

3. Materiality – Another Todd Pletcher horse that got a poor draw though not nearly as bad as his stablemate directly to his inside. He is three for three in his career and has been very good in every start. He ran a slow mile and one eighth at Gulfstream in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, but received a huge Beyer Speed Figure of 110. The worry here is his lack of foundation with just three career starts and also the crush of horses that will come over on top of him. He will need to be used hard to avoid the crush of horses and that may compromise his chances. It is tough to decide what to do with him…

4. Tencendur – It took him a few races to get going after breaking his maiden on January 15, but he came up with a solid second place finish in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. He did have a good trip and that race and he reunites with his maiden breaking rider Manuel Franco. The question about him is can he repeat that Wood Memorial performance and will he be good enough? The feeling here is probably not.

5. Danzig Moon – He broke his maiden in his third start and his three year old debut on February 7. He then ran fourth in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby behind Carpe Diem and then ran second to him again in the Grade 1 Blue Grass by three lengths. There is some buzz about this horse having a chance, but he will need to run a bit faster to get in the picture.

6. Mubtaahij – He is what most would consider the wild card. He has not raced in the US and we know little about the depth behind him in his victories. He won the Group 2 UAE Derby by 8 lengths in a visually impressive manner and his connections are bullish about his chances. He has two wins at a mile and a sixteenth so the distance should not be a problem. How good is he? We will see on Saturday and is must use on top.

#7 El Kabeir has SCRATCHED from the race due to foot issues.

7. El Kabeir – He has been consistent this year hitting the board in all four starts. He showed more tactical speed in his first two starts in 2015 before coming from off the pace in his latter two. He did not have much of an excuse in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial when he finished third and he will need to step up here. He will need to closer as well if he wants a chance of getting a piece.

8. Dortmund – He is an undefeated six for six and he has been impressive in each race. He has won easily and he has also won in dogfights (twice over Firing Line). He can rate off the speed or take them gate-to-wire while the former is more conducive in a race like the Kentucky Derby. There is lots to like about him and he is a must use on top.

9. Bolo – He began his career on turf finishing fifth in before back-to-back wins on the turf. He was switcher over to dirt for the Grade 2 San Felipe where he ran a solid third behind Dortmund and Firing Line. His Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby produced another third place effort, but he will need to step up big time to have a chance in this race.

10. Firing Line – This colt has done little wrong in his career. He has run second to Dortmund twice with both losses by a head, which enhances his chances here. His last race was an impressive gate to wire score by 14 lengths in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. He is a speedy horse, but can be rated and has Gary Stevens in the irons. There is a lot to like here.

11. Stanford – Scratched. He will point to the Peter Pan at Belmont or the Preakness in two weeks.

#12 International Star has SCRATCHED from the Derby due to a quarter crack.

12. International Star – He spent the winter at the Fair Grounds and he made the most of that by winning all three of the stakes races there. He will be flying late here, which will probably mean traffic problems in the stretch, but he can certainly close. He is also by a Kentucky Derby winner in Fusaichi Pegasus. He is a must include underneath with his ability to close.

13. Itsaknockout – He had a great start to his career by going two for two and then was put up to first in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth to make it three for three. His last race was atrocious when he was fourth by 21 lengths in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. It is hard to endorse him off an effort like that.

14. Keen Ice – He has been sub par in his three year old season. He started with a fifth place finish in the Grade 2 Holy Bull before closing to finish third in the Grade 2 Risen Star behind International Star and War Story. He then ran fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby with a wide trip, but was never a threat to the winner. He does a win over the main track at Churchill and will be closing late, but will it be too late?

15. Frosted – He started the winter down in Florida with a second place and then ran a surprisingly bad fourth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth despite holding the lead into the stretch. He supposedly had breathing problems in that race, which led to a throat operation. He came back in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial to win from off the pace. It has been a while since the Wood Memorial produced a Kentucky Derby winner (2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus), but he has the look of a contender.

16. War Story – He has not done a lot wrong in his 5 career starts and he has never missed the board. He raced down in Louisiana where he ran up against International Star finishing second twice and third once. He is taking the blinkers off for this race and he owns a win over the main track at Churchill. This is a typical horse that this author gets sucked into betting, but not this year.

17. Mr. Z – He is the most experienced runner by far with 12 races (next closest is 9), but his form has been declining since the start of the year. He was demolished in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby by 20 lengths and then ran third behind the morning line favorite American Pharoah in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. It is very difficult to endorse his chances here.

18. American Pharoah – The morning favorite has been spectacular in his two starts in 2015. He cruised against his foes in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in the slop by 6 1/4 lengths and then demolished the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby field by 8 lengths. He has worked well, he has been brilliant, and he should not have too much in the way of traffic trouble out here. However, can he win when a horse looks him in the eye? Will he get too close to a hot pace? Can you take a short price in a 20 horse field? He is a must use on top in multi-race wagers.

19. Upstart – He is another consistent horse in here. After running a solid third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he won the Grade 2 Holy Bull and was disqualified (controversially) from the win spot in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. He was unable to run by Materiality last time out. He should have a good spot in the Kentucky Derby, but if he could not run by Materiality at 9 furlongs last time, can he do it against better at 10 furlongs? Tough decision on him in this spot.

20. Far Right – He has run at Arkansas for the Derby prep season. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes with a nice closing kick near the rail and then did the same in the Grade 3 Southwest. He was no match for American Pharoah last time out and he still retains the services of Mike Smith, who has done will with closers in the past (Zenyatta and Giacomo in the 2004 Derby). If there is a complete meltdown in the pace, he could win, but at big odds he is a must include underneath in the exotics.

21. Frammento – The lucky recipient of Stanford’s scratch, he will breaking from post 20. He did little in the Grade 2 Holy Bull when he finished sixth by 18 lengths, but had a strong rally in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth when he came from more than 15 lengths out of it to finish third by 4 1/2 lengths. He tried the same thing in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, but he could only muster a fourth place finish. He may have a chance to close in this race, but he will need to be quicker if he is to blow up the tote board.

22. Tale Of Verve (Also-eligible) – SCRATCHED.

Selections

This race really can come down to a few horses though there are plenty that have a chance to shake up the exotics. The top choice here is #6 Mubtaahij who will come from off the pace here. #8 Dortmund is hard to discredit here and has a big chance as does #18 American Pharoah. A few others to consider in the multi-race wagers are #10 Firing Line, #15 Frosted, and #19 Upstart.

Top selection – #6 Mubtaahij

2nd selection – #8 Dortmund

3rd selection – #15 Frosted

4th selection – #18 American Pharoah

Plays will be:

Win, place, show on #6 Mubtaahij

$1 exacta 6, 8, 15, 18 with 3-5-6-8-10-12-14-15-18-19-20 ($40)

Good luck to everyone betting and be sure to check back on Saturday evening for a recap of the 2015 Kentucky Derby!

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