Under The Radar Games For College Football Week 13
The final full week of the regular season is here in week 13. There are some massive College Football Playoff implications this week with #6 Washington at #23 Washington State, Minnesota at #5 Wisconsin, #3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State, and #16 Auburn at #1 Alabama among them. There are also other big games like Toledo at #14 Western Michigan, #21 Utah at #9 Colorado, #25 LSU at #21 Texas A&M, and rivalries such as #13 Florida at #15 Florida State.
We will focus on games that may not appear to offer much at first glance. These games might not have a national impact, but they could affect a team’s bowl chances or a conference title race. Note that these games are listed in order of when they will be played and all times listed are Eastern.
1. All 3 MACtion games on Tuesday (11/22 at 7 PM) – This trifecta consists of Akron at Ohio, Ball State at Miami (OH), and Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan.
There are a lot of story lines on Tuesday for the three MAC games. Akron sits at 5-6 and a win would put them in a bowl game. They face Ohio, which would win the MAC East with a victory. However, a loss by them opens the door for Miami (OH) to win the MAC East. They too play on Tuesday at home to Ball State. A win for Miami (OH) puts them in a bowl and combined with a loss from Ohio puts them in the MAC Championship. Do not take anything for granted with if you are watching these MAC East games.
The third game has no MAC or bowl implications, but involves a pretty good story: Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are 6-5 and will be headed to their first bowl game since 1987. A win against Central Michigan will guarantee the Eagles their first winning season since 1995.
2. Boise State at Air Force (11/25 at 3:30 PM) – Boise State is still in the running for the Group of 5 New Year’s Six spot, but they need a lot of help. First up, they need to defeat Air Force, but the Falcons have won the last two games versus the Broncos.
If Boise State defeats Air Force, they will then need a loss by Wyoming against New Mexico while they will have to defeat San Diego State in the MWC Championship Game. If all that happens, it will be up to the CFB Playoff Committee and their rankings to determine if it is Boise State or Western Michigan (assuming they win the MAC) that ends up with the Group of 5 spot.
There is something at stake for Air Force and that is a 10 win season. If Air Force wins they would be 9-3 and then would need to win their bowl game. That would give them two 10 win season in the last three seasons.
3. TCU at Texas (11/25 at 3:30 PM) – A battle of two underachieving teams will ensue here and both teams are a win away from being in a bowl game. TCU is 5-5 and face Kansas State on December 3 so a loss here is not the end of the road.
The end of the road is near for Texas’ Charlie Strong after the 24-21 overtime loss at Kansas last week. The Longhorns are 5-6 and a win here will at least get them to a bowl game, but Strong will not be there if it happens.
Will Texas’ players send Strong off with a win? Or will TCU reach 6 wins and a poor season for the Horned Frogs?
4. Kentucky at Louisville (11/26 at 12 PM) – Kentucky, for all their issues this season against good teams, still has a chance to pull of the big upset. They have already reach 6 wins and will be in a bowl game, but they get Louisville at the perfect time. Louisville was completely outplayed at Houston last week in their 36-10 loss. They lost their chance at the College Football Playoff and then lost their slim chance of the ACC Atlantic title on Saturday when Clemson beat Wake Forest.
How will Louisville respond? Will they play sluggish? There is no doubt that Louisville is the better and more talented team. They should dominate this game, but they do not have the same motivations they did after their win against Wake Forest. Then again, maybe this is a chance for them to let go of their frustrations. This game is worth keeping an eye on to see how they respond after their title aspirations evaporated.
5. Wyoming at New Mexico (11/26 at 10:15 PM) – Not much at stake here, just the MWC Mountain Division title. A Wyoming win puts them in the Championship Game as does a loss by Boise State versus Air Force.
This will not be an easy game though because New Mexico has a unique shotgun formation triple option attack that can put up points. Wyoming can put up points too and this game could come down which defense plays better. The advantage there goes to Wyoming, but will the idea of a division title creep into their minds and cause them to play cautious?
6. All smaller bowl game/5 win teams – There are currently 64 teams that have reached 6 wins and will be in a bowl game. There are still 19 teams that have a shot at reaching six wins (or 7 wins in the case of Army). In week 13, there are 7 games were 5 wins teams are facing an opponent with a winning record. There is a strong chance we will see 5 win teams in a bowl game in 2016. Let’s hope for some upsets (or some reduction in the number of bowl games).
This will be last edition of Under The Radar Games for 2016. The previous columns for this season can be found below.
Five Predictions For The Mid-American Conference In 2016
The 2016 College Football season is right around the corner and that means prediction time. Below are five predictions for Mid-American Conference for the 2016 season. Some predictions will be right, some predictions will be wrong, and some will be spectacularly awful by the end of the season.
There is one change to the teams in the MAC and that is the loss of Massachusetts as they are now an Independent. That evens out the teams to six in both the East and West. The six East teams are Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami (OH), and Ohio. The six West teams are Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, and Western Michigan.
Here are five predictions for the Mid-American Conference in 2016:
1. Northern Illinois will make it 7 straight MAC Title Game Appearances – The Huskies have been a dominant force in the MAC and MAC West by competing in the MAC Championship Game each year since 2010. They have won three of those (2011, 2012, and 2014) and look poised to reach the title game once again in 2016.
For NIU, they will have two main challengers in Western Michigan and Toledo. The Huskies face Western Michigan on the road and play Toledo off campus in Chicago on a Wednesday night at US Cellular Field. The Huskies welcome back seven starters on offense including quarterback Drew Hare (1,962 yards, 63.8%, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions), running back Joel Bouagnon (1,285 yards and 18 touchdowns), and receiver Kenny Galloday (73 catches for 1,129 yards and 10 touchdowns). The defense will bring back six starters from a unit that allowed 27.6 points and 418 yards per game. That unit should have a solid year.
Toledo is coming off a 10-2 season, but is introducing a new coach in Jason Candle and only have 11 starters back (seven on offense and four on defense). Western Michigan seems like the biggest threat because they have eight starters returning on offense (36 points and 491 yards per game in 2015) as well as five on defense (28.3 points and 414 yards per game). The biggest factor for WMU is they face both NIU and Toledo at home, which may give them the slight edge. Still, NIU seems to have a knack for getting it done and that is why they are predicted to make the MAC Championship. Again.
2. Western Michigan will defeat at least one Big Ten opponent in 2016 – The Broncos will be facing two Big Ten foes in the first three weeks of the season when they travel to both Northwestern (Sep. 3) and Illinois (Sep. 17). The first week of the season is always interesting because teams are not in peak form, which leads to upsets (see Northwestern v. Stanford in 2015’s opening week).
The Illinois game looks like the better opportunity for an upset, at least on paper. Lovie Smith is entering his first season as a college coach, but he is taking over a team that has 11 starters back (seven on offense and four on defense) as well as implementing new schemes. The Broncos are entering their fourth year of head coach PJ Fleck‘s schemes.
The Broncos have a history of playing Big Ten teams really tough as well. They lost 23-20 to Illinois in 2011, lost 28-23 to Minnesota in 2012, lost 26-13 to Michigan State in 2013, lost to Purdue 43-34 in 2014, and lost to Michigan State 37-24 last year. All of those games were on the road except last year against the Spartans. Western Michigan is poised for a potentially big year and defeating one (or possibly both) Big Ten schools is not out of the question.
3. The East will be mayhem – It is hard to confidently make a prediction as to which team will win the MAC East in 2016. Bowling Green has a new coach (Mike Jinks) while also losing their quarterback, running back, and three of their top four receivers. Ohio is returning 12 starters (six on each side), but need to find a suitable quarterback and running back combination. Akron has only seven total starters returning in 2016 and lost six of their top seven tacklers on defense as well as their top running back and second and third leading receivers.
Buffalo will be in their second year under Lance Leipold, but have only three starters back on offense. The defense should be solid with eight starters back, but the loss of their top quarterback, top running back, and top two receivers will hurt. They could pull a surprise in 2016 though with a solid defense leading the way. Kent State went only 3-9 in 2015, but they return an incredible 18 starters in 2016 with ten on offense and eight on defense. In addition, they are in year four under Paul Haynes and could make serious strides. Then there is Miami (OH) who also returns ten starters on offense and six on defense. They are in the third year of Chuck Martin‘s reign and could also pull some upsets.
The MAC East has a lot of variables that will produce plenty of action. Sure, Bowling Green may be the favorite, but they are far from a cinch to win the division. Expect some upsets and chaos from the East.
4. Kent State will reach six wins – The Golden Flashes have 18 starters returning with ten on offense and eight on defense. The offense will need to make a massive jump in production if they are to make this prediction come true.
Kent State put up an anemic 13.1 points and 271 yards per game in 2015 despite having eight starters returning. The rush offense was okay putting up 133 yards per game, but the passing attack was horrendous gaining just 138 yards per game. The running game is likely to be anchored by Nick Holley who put up 133 yards in three games last year before an injury, but was more effective in 2014 gaining an average of 4.1 yards per carry. The receiving group has their top nine back and no matter who wins the quarterback job, the passing game will be better.
The defense gave up 26.1 points and 350 yards per game in 2015, which are very respectable numbers in this conference. There are eight starters back for this unit and it should be one of the best in the conference, which will help if the offense struggles again this year.
The Golden Flashes have a non-conference schedule of Penn State and Alabama on the road while playing FCS foes North Carolina A&T and Monmouth at home. In conference, they do draw Western Michigan and Northern Illinois from the West with both games at home, which will likely result in two losses. Their games against Akron (home), Buffalo (road), Miami (OH) (road), Ohio (home), and Bowling Green (away) in the East will dictate their ability to reach the six win plateau. However, the East is up for grabs and if the offense improves, it could be a solid improvement this season.
5. Eastern Michigan will end their four straight years of double digit losses (and not finish last in the West) – Eastern Michigan has not been a very good football program, but not for lack of trying. They went 4-8 in 2007 and 3-9 in 2008 before going with Ron English as their coach for 2009. It did not get better as they went 0-12 in 2009 and then 2-10 in 2010. They improved to an excellent (for this program) 6-6 in 2011, but did not go to a bowl game. The Eagles slipped back to 2-10 in both 2012 and 2013 with English being let go during the 2013 season. 2014 saw EMU go 2-10 and they struggled again in 2015 as they went 1-11. 2016 will be year three under Chris Creighton.
They return 8 starters from an offense that improved 10 points per contest in 2015. They went from 15.2 points and 290 yards per game in 2014 to 25.4 and 380 yards per game in 2015. Quarterback BroganRoback should improve on his numbers of 2,304 yards (61%) with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The running game and receivers will also benefit from the entire offensive line returning.
The defense has been terrible the last three seasons for Eastern Michigan. Their best effort was in 2014 when they allowed 40.9 points and 499 yards per game. Eight starters are back from last year’s group that allowed 42.1 points and 519 yards per game. Even an improvement to 2012’s bad numbers of 37.6 points and 479 yards per game would go a long way.
The schedule is favorable for Eastern Michigan to win at least three games. They open with Mississippi Valley State at home before road games against Missouri and Charlotte (another winnable game). They close with Wyoming at home. They have to face some tough teams (Bowling Green on the road, Toledo at home, Ohio on the road, Western Michigan on the road, and Northern Illinois at home), but they have a couple winnable conference games. They will face Miami (OH) at home and Ball State on the road, which could both be wins and improve. The Eagles end the season with Central Michigan at home. The Eagles have a decent schedule to navigate their way to possibly four wins (or even five with an upset or two). That would be a very solid improvement for this program.
The Prediction Schedule
With the MAC predictions above, there are now predictions for four conferences in the books. Below are the predictions completed and which conference is next.
The Big Ten had a full week of non-conference games before starting its conference schedule next week. It was a positive Saturday overall with the conference going 12-2, but, as always, there is room for improvement. Each game is broken down below.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Result: Nebraska Win 36-28 (Saturday, September 26)
Nebraska improved to 2-2 on the season, but it was another poor performance from the defense that should cause concern in Lincoln. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong went 23 of 35 for 368 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. He was also effective in the running game with 63 yards and a touchdown on 7 carries.
Wide receiver Jordan Westerkamp had another big game with 11 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Reilly had a few big plays, as he caught 3 passes for 112 yards. Terrell Newby had 76 yards on 18 carries to lead the Huskers in rushing. Andy Janovich was quietly effective with just five carries, but went for a total of 68 yards.
While the offense was good by racking up 610 yards, it was not very effective when it needed to be. Kicker Drew Brown attempted 7 field goals and connected on five. An 8 point win could have been a lot more comfortable had they converted two or three of those field goals into touchdowns. The offense went 4 of 13 on third down.
The defense largely held the Southern Miss running game in check with only 11 yards allowed, but gave up 447 yards through the air. Most worrisome is that the defense gave up three touchdown drives of at least 53 yards and 21 points. It has been a constant them for the Huskers that their defense is giving up quite a few points in the fourth quarter and we have already seen it cost them one game on the final play.
Nebraska faces Illinois next week on the road in their conference opener.
Kansas Jayhawks at Rutgers Scarlet Knight
Result: Rutgers Win 27-14 (Saturday, September 26)
Rutgers took care of business against Kansas, one of the weakest (if not the weakest) teams in all of FBS. That makes it hard to judge the performance, but a win is a win.
Chris Laviano had a decent game going 18 of 25 for 201 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The rushing game was very good for the Scarlet Knights as they rushed for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns on 58 carries as a team. Josh Hicks led the way with 113 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 carries while Robert Martin also broke the century mark at 102 yards on 17 carries. Overall, the offense was very effective with 513 yards, but converted on 8 of 12 third downs as well.
Defensively, it is hard to gauge this effort. They held Kansas to 342 yards of total offense including 64 yards on the ground. They forced just one turnover, but did not have a lot of trouble overall. Perhaps this will give them some confidence as they continue on in the Big Ten conference schedule.
The Scarlet Knights are off next week. Rutgers will have a stern test at home in two weeks against Michigan State.
#22 BYU Cougars at Michigan Wolverines
Result: Michigan Win 31-0 (Saturday, September 26)
Michigan looked incredible on Saturday against BYU, a team that had impressed the first three weeks. The defense was particularly impressive for the Wolverines.
Jake Rudock had a solid game with 14 of 25 passing for 194 yards and a touchdown. There were no interceptions or fumbles from him and he accounted for another two touchdowns on the ground (10 carries for 33 yards). De’Veon Smith had 125 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries while his bruising 60 yard touchdown run was the highlight of the game. Smith did leave the game in the second half and did not return, but he is expected to be fine for next week’s game.
Amara Darboh had 4 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown including a wonderful one handed catch in the first half. Nine different players caught a pass for Michigan in a very equal passing game by Rudock.
The real story for Michigan was the defense. They allowed 105 total yards of offense to BYU with 55 through the air and 50 on the ground. BYU went 4 of 15 on third down and had just 8 first downs the entire game. The Wolverines did not allow them to get into a rhythm and this is what we expect from a JimHarbaugh coached defense.
Michigan travels on the road next week to face Maryland.
Central Michigan Chippewas at #2 Michigan State Spartans
Result: Michigan State Win 30-10 (Saturday, September 26)
Michigan State looked far from the #2 team in the nation on Saturday against Central Michigan, but they got the job done.
Connor Cook went 11 of 19 for 143 yards and a touchdown, but the offense did not always look great. Madre London ran for 73 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries while Gerald Holmes rushed for 22 yards and 2 touchdowns (both coming in the fourth quarter) on 4 carries.
The defense also had its issues against the Central Michigan offense. Cooper Rush threw for 285 yards and a touchdown on 26 of 39 passing. The trio of Jesse Kroll, Anthony Rice, and Corey Willis all had at least 5 catches and 57 yards.
Shilique Calhoun was disruptive for the Spartans on defense and also blocked a field goal. That was one of two blocked field goals by the Spartans. More worrisome for Michigan State is the possible losses of JackConklin, RJ Williamson, and Josiah Price.
Michigan State takes on Purdue next week at home in their Big Ten opener.
Bowling Green Falcons at Purdue Boilermakers
Result: Bowling Green Win 35-28 (Saturday, September 26)
Purdue slumped to 1-3 this year thanks to a loss to MAC opponent Bowling Green. It was not the worst loss for Purdue, as there was a good sign of improvement at quarterback.
David Blough was named the starter for this game and he did well. He went 29 of 39 for 340 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. He also ran for a touchdown, but the Boilermakers were not good rushing with just 77 yards on 38 carries as a team.
The defense was all or nothing in the first half. Bowling Green scored a touchdown, then lost a fumble, scored a second touchdown, was intercepted, and ended the first half with a third touchdown. Purdue was able to turn one of the turnovers into a touchdown, but missed a field goal on the other.
The defense was better overall in the second half, but still could not do enough to hang on for the win. They allowed 539 yards of offense and also allowed Bowling Green to convert 11 of 16 third downs.
It will be a tall task next week for Purdue with a road trip to Michigan State.
Indiana Hoosiers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Result: Indiana Win 31-24 (Saturday, September 26)
Indiana got a road win to open the season 4-0 and sit just two games away from bowl eligibility. The defense was improved, but there is still plenty of concern on that side of the ball.
Nate Sudfeld had pedestrian numbers considering his normal output. He went 19 of 34 for 205 yards with 2 touchdowns. Jordan Howard had another big rushing game with 168 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries. The offense converted 7 of 17 third down opportunities.
The defense played well early on for Indiana. The first three drives for Wake Forest yielded just one yard. The Hoosiers did allow 10 points in the second quarter, but held a 17-10 lead at the break. The defense played well again after halftime. A 20 yard pick six early in the fourth quarter by Kendall Hinton put the Hoosiers up 31-10. The concern is that Wake Forest scored two touchdowns on the next two drives. They did hold the Demon Deacons to 363 yards of offense including 99 on the ground and 4 of 18 on third down.
Indiana goes from facing Wake Forest on the road to Ohio State at home next weekend.
Maryland Terrapins at West Virginia Mountaineers
Result: West Virginia Win 45-6 (Saturday, September 26)
The worst Big Ten performance of the week belongs to Maryland. It was terrible performance, particularly from the quarterbacks.
Caleb Rowe went 10 of 27 for only 67 yards, no touchdowns, and 4 interceptions (!). Daxx Garman came in and threw for 86 yards with one touchdown and one pick. Brandon Ross did well to pick up 130 yards on 15 carries, but he was the lone bright spot in a dismal offense.
The defense struggled to put up any resistance to the West Virginia offense. The Mountaineers put up 601 yards of offense and it was nearly even with 297 through the air and 304 on the ground.
Maryland may find themselves struggling to get offense going again next week. They face Michigan at home, a team that has been solid on the defensive side of the ball.
North Texas Mean Green at Iowa Hawkeyes
Result: Iowa Win 62-16 (Saturday, September 26)
Iowa completely crushed North Texas to finish their non-conference schedule 4-0. It was a complete domination by both sides of the ball for Iowa.
C.J. Beathard was deadly accurate and efficient. He went 18 of 21 for 278 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. Jordan Canzeri had a field day running the ball as well. He had four rushing touchdowns to go along with 115 yards on 22 carries. Tevaun Smith had 4 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.
The defense had only two turnovers, but both were interceptions returned for touchdowns. First, it was Josey Jewell for a 34 yard pick-six late in the third quarter. The second one came late in the game with BoBower taking a pick 88 yards to the house.
Big Ten play begins next week with one of the toughest games on their schedule. Iowa travels to play Wisconsin in Madison with the winner having an early inside track on the Big Ten West.
Ohio Bobcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Result: Minnesota Win 27-24 (Saturday, September 26)
For the second week in a row, Minnesota escaped at home against a MAC foe. This week, at least there was more scoring.
Mitch Leidner had a solid day going 22 of 32 for 264 yards with no touchdown or interceptions. He also ran for 22 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries. Rodney Smith had a solid day as well with 94 yards on 16 carries, but Shannon Brooks emerged with 10 carries for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns including the game winner late. The offense looked much better this week and they put up 468 yards of offense and had only one turnover.
In an odd twist, the defense did not play as well as we have seen. They certain were not terrible, but it was not as stout as they were in the first three games. They allowed 8 of 16 on third down conversions and also gave up 345 yards of offense. They allowed 10 points in the fourth quarter that made it way too uncomfortable for the Gopher faithful.
Another worry, at least late, was the special teams. A muffed punt by Cody Grilliot was recovered by Ohio and led to a touchdown. They also gave up a massive kick return with less than 30 seconds remaining to Ohio after they just took the lead.
Minnesota finished their non-conference slate at 3-1 and they will have a defensive battle next week against Northwestern on the road.
Western Michigan Broncos at #1 Ohio State Buckeyes
Result: Ohio State Win 38-12 (Saturday, September 26)
Ohio State may have decided on a quarterback, but it still does not look like the Buckeyes we saw in 2014.
Cardale Jones went 19 of 33 for 288 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. His second half left a lot to be desired as he completed only 6 of 14 passes. Ezekiel Elliott, unsurprisingly, was good with 124 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Curtis Samuel had 2 carries for 55 yards including a 40 yard run for a touchdown just before the midway point of the fourth quarter. The offense still managed to put up 511 yards with 288 passing and 223 on the ground. They did go 8 of 13 on third downs, which is a big improvement over the 2 of 13 they managed against Northern Illinois last week.
The defense was very good for Ohio State. They did not allow Western Michigan quarterback Zach Terrell to get into a rhythm. He finished 18 of 33 for 169 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. That interception was returned 20 yards for a touchdown by Adolphus Washington. The Buckeyes did allow Daniel Braverman to catch 10 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown, but they clamped down in the second half.
Ohio State begins the defense of their Big Ten title next week on the road at Indiana.
San Diego State Aztecs at Penn State Nittany Lions
Result: Penn State Win 37-21 (Saturday, September 26)
Penn State relied on their running backs last week to get the offense going, but it was Christian Hackenberg that woke up the dormant offense this week. Hackenberg threw for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns on 21 of 35 passing.
Saeed Blackwell led the Nittany Lions with 4 catches for 101 yards while Chris Godwin had 5 receptions for 78 yards with a touchdown. The running game was dealt not one, but two blows, thanks to injuries. Saquon Barkley and Akeel Lynch both left leaving Nick Scott and Mark Allen to try and pick up the slack. Allen ran for 5 yards on 5 carries, but did catch 2 passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. Scott had 6 carries for 9 yards. Those numbers will surely need to improve or Hackenberg will be primary target number one if Barkley and Lynch miss any time.
The defense was decent, but the highlight went to Austin Johnson. The defensive tackle ran (rumbled?) 71 yards for a fumble return touchdown that put Penn State up 34-21 early in the fourth quarter. The defense did only allow 242 yards of offense to SDSU including a poor 10 of 29 for 141 yards throwing.
The special teams is still a question mark after week four’s performance. They gave up a 100 yard kick return, fumbled a punt return that led to a touchdown, and also missed a field goal.
Unlike much of the Big Ten, they have not completed their non-conference schedule. Army visits next week in an early kickoff.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Illinois Fighting Illini
Result: Illinois Win 27-25 (Saturday, September 26)
Illinois bounced back from last week’s thrashing at North Carolina, but it was not easy by any means. They needed a last minute field goal from Taylor Zalewski and also needed a missed field goal from Middle Tennessee with seconds remaining to pull out the win.
Wes Lunt went 29 of 49 for 238 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions. The large amount of incompletions are a bit worrisome, especially after he went 15 of 32 against North Carolina a week ago. Josh Ferguson ran for 83 yards on 20 carries while Ke’Shawn Vaughn ran for 80 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.
Geronimo Allison easily led the team in receiving with 10 catches for 128 yards. Desmond Cain was also involved in the passing game with 7 catches for 48 yards. Coming into the game, Cain had 8 catches for 53 yards on the year.
The defense gave up only 38 yards rushing to Middle Tennessee thanks largely to -30 yards rushing by the Middle Tennessee quarterback on sacks. They allowed 330 yards through the air as well as 3 touchdowns. The defense allowed 13 fourth quarter points as the Blue Raiders moved down the field with ease.
The special teams unit was good overall. There was a missed field goal, but a blocked punt subsequently allowed Illinois to build a 14-3 in the second quarter. Clayton Fejedelem fell on the ball in the end zone for the score.
Illinois enters Big Ten play 3-1 and they immediately get Nebraska next week at home. It is a potentially big game, as Illinois needs three wins to make bowl eligibility.
Ball State Cardinals at #17 Northwestern Wildcats
Result: Northwestern Win 24-19 (Saturday, September 26)
Northwestern was able to hang on against Ball State in a deceivingly good second half from the offense. The first half left a lot to be desired from the Wildcats, especially at the quarterback position.
Clayton Thorson looked like a freshman during the first half. He lost a fumble after a nice run, which led to a field goal for Ball State. He also threw an interception (led to a missed field goal), but his fumble late in the first half allowed Ball State to score a touchdown and take a 10-7 lead at halftime.
The second half was like a whole new ball game for the Wildcats on offense. Their first three drives resulted in 17 points and a 24-10 lead. Thorson finished the game going 18 of 31 for 256 yards with 3 touchdowns and the interception. He also ran for 45 yards on 9 carries. Justin Jackson had a big game rushing the ball with 184 yards on 33 carries. Dan Vitale easily had his best game of the year with 5 catches for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. His emergence really helped Thorson in the final 30 minutes.
The defense played solidly and it is worth noting that they kept the game close while the offense struggled in the first half. They recovered a fumble deep in their own territory and forced a total of four field goals from Ball State. Ball State missed two field goals, which would have been the difference.
Northwestern is likely to have a defensive battle next week at home in their Big Ten opener against Minnesota.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at #22 Wisconsin Badgers
Result: Wisconsin Win 28-0 (Saturday, September 26)
Taiwan Deal rushed for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on 26 carries while Dare Ogunbowale had 15 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown. The Badgers rushed for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns as a team on 54 carries. Most importantly, the offense looked to have gotten their running game back, if only for this week. The offense nearly held a 2-1 advantage in time of possession, another good sign.
Joel Stave was not overly impressive, but he was smart with the ball and did not force unnecessary throws. He went 14 of 23 for 164 yards and a touchdown. In no surprise, Alex Erickson was his top target with 9 catches for 87 yards. Austin Traylor had 2 catches for 23 yards and a touchdown and is quietly becoming a big red zone target for Stave.
The defense did not make any big plays, but they did not allow any type of rhythm for the Hawaii offense. Hawaii’s longest drive was 60 yards, but the defense held firm on fourth and three at the Wisconsin 33. Another drive got as close to the Wisconsin 1 yard line, but a series of penalties by Hawaii resulted in a missed 49 yard field goal. In the last three games, Wisconsin has allowed a total of 3 points and has two shutouts.
Wisconsin faces Iowa at home in their Big Ten opener next week.
Check back next Sunday for a look at the Week 5 Big Ten Roundup. There will be plenty of Big Ten Conference action that is dissected.
The start of the college football season is right around the corner on August 29 with an FCS game between North Dakota State at Montana. In the build up to the season, we will provide in-depth previews of each conference and division starting with the Mid-American Conference East Division. The entire preview schedule is as follows:
MAC East Division – July 1
MAC West Division – July 3
Mountain West, Mountain Division – July 7
Mountain West, West Division – July 10
C-USA East Division – July 14
C-USA West Division – July 17
The American East Division – July 21
The American West Division – July 24
Sun Belt – July 28
FBS Independents – July 28
Big 12 – July 31
ACC Coastal Division – August 4
ACC Atlantic Division – August 7
Big 10 West Division – August 11
Big 10 East Division – August 14
Pac-12 North Division – August 18
Pac-12 South Division – August 21
SEC East Division – August 25
SEC West Division – August 28
Without further ado, let’s jump into the MAC East.
1. Ohio Bobcats
There is a lot to like about Ohio’s chances to win the MAC East. They return a total of 18 starters with 10 on offense and 8 on defense. Their lone loss on offense was their top receiver from 2014, but his production (21 catches for 443 yards and 1 touchdown) can be replaced with the second, third, and fourth leading receivers returning. The quarterback battle will be between JDSprague and Derrius Vick, but whichever one wins the battle will do well lead the offense. 2014’s leading rusher was AJ Oullette who ran for 785 yards and 7 touchdowns on 160 carries (4.9 yards per carry).
On defense, the Bobcats lose two linemen and a defensive back. They return their top three tacklers (Quentin Polling, Jovon Johnson, and Blair Brown), who all play at linebacker. The defensive backfield is stocked full of seniors at all positions while the defensive line is full of upperclassmen.
If Ohio is to win the MAC East they will have to overcome a tough trio of in-conference games. They get an up and coming Western Michigan team at home on October 17, but have road tests at Bowling Green (November 4) and Northern Illinois (November 24). If Ohio can at least beat Bowling Green, they will be in excellent position to win the MAC East.
2. Bowling Green Falcons
The favorite to win the MAC East belongs to the Bowling Green Falcons under second year head coach Dino Babers. BG won the MAC East last year, but was crushed by Northern Illinois 51-17 in the Title Game. What is really scary about the Falcons is that they return 10 starters from an offense that averaged 30 points a game. There is no reason to expect that average to go down with a full year in the system and two experienced quarterbacks in Matt Johnson and James Knapke. Scary indeed.
The one area of concern for Bowling Green is on defense where they return 5 starters from a unit that surrendered 33.5 points per game in 2014. The losses are immense in the back seven with 5 starters gone from the linebacker and secondary units. The top four tacklers are also gone with several inexperienced players projected to start. One player that is coming in and expected to start is Eilar Hardy from Notre Dame at the strong safety position.
The MAC East will likely come down to a matter of three games in the span of two weeks. They will face Ohio at home on November 4 and then take on Western Michigan on the road November 11. The gauntlet ends with Toledo visiting Bowling Green on November 17. A 2-1 record in those games, especially a victor over Ohio, will probably give them the inside track to win the division.
3. Massachusetts Minutemen
There is no doubt that Mark Whipple made an impact on this team in 2014 in his first year back at the helm. The team lost by field goals to Colorado and Vanderbilt while playing Bowling Green, Miami (OH), and Toledo close, losing those three games by a touchdown or less. UMass beat Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and Ball State to finish 3-9.
In 2015, the Minutemen return a total of 19 starters with 10 on offense and 9 on defense. The offense was vastly improved last season going from 11.7 points per game in 2013 to 27.3 in 2014. Quarterback BlakeFrohnapfel will be leading the offense for the second straight year after throwing for 3,345 yards (55.1%) with 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He also has his top target in Tajae Sharpe back (85 catches for 1,281 yards and 7 touchdowns). The offense will continue to put points on the board in 2015.
The defense, however, will need to improve drastically if Massachusetts wants to make their second bowl game in school history. In 2013, they gave up 33 points per game and did the same in 2014 with five starters back. Nine starters return in 2015 and it would be surprising if they did not improve across the board. Under this 3-4 system, UMass has seven seniors projected as starters in the linebacking and secondary units.
UMass has also been given a favorable schedule in their final season in the MAC. They face Bowling Green on the road, but draw Toledo at home and will not play fellow MAC East opponent Ohio in 2015. They will also face a couple of Western Division bottom feeders in Ball State and Eastern Michigan. UMass could be headed to a bowl game in 2015.
4. Akron Zips
It has been a decade since Akron made a bowl game, but they have been close the past two seasons with back-to-back 5-7 records. They return six starters on offense led by quarterback Kyle Pohl. He threw for 2,189 yards (54.3%) with 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in an injury plagued season. He will need to stay healthy because he does not have his top two receivers from a year ago nor does he have the top returning rusher. The second leading rusher in 2014, Conor Hundley, ran for 540 yards and 4 touchdowns on 104 carries. The offensive line looks like the strength of the offensive with four senior starters and could be key to helping the Akron offense.
Like offense, the defensive side of the ball returns six starters as well. The strength appears to be on the defensive line with three returning starters coming back from a unit that allowed only 149 yards rushing per game in 2014. The defense loses 8 of the top 11 tacklers, but the top tackler in Jatavis Brown will anchor the linebacking unit. He had 99 stops, 4 sacks, and 10.5 tackles-for-loss last season. The secondary loses two starters, but should be decent in 2015.
The schedule was kind to Akron. From the MAC West they drew Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan, two teams that are expected to be near the bottom of that division. They get Ohio for homecoming on October 3, and have road games at Bowling Green and Massachusetts. Akron has a real chance at making their second bowl game in school history in 2015.
5. Buffalo Bulls
2015 will be a season of change for the Buffalo Bulls. They made a splash hire by taking Lance Leipold away from Division 3 Wisconsin-Whitewater. At Whitewater, Leipold won 6 National Titles in 8 seasons while making the National Championship 7 times. While he should not be expected to win a National Title in Buffalo, he should have them contending in the MAC within a few years.
Leipold inherits seven starters on offense including the top returning quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Joe Licata threw for 2,647 yards (64.9%) with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, AnthoneTaylor ran for 1,403 yards and 12 touchdowns (5 YPC), and Ron Willoughby caught 50 passes for 771 yards and 9 touchdowns. Leipold has the pieces in place on offense to run his system well in his first season.
On defense, Buffalo returns only four starters from a defense that gave up 31.5 points and 398 yards per game. The top four leading tacklers from 2014 depart and the biggest loses come in the secondary. They lost three starters that accounted for 90 career starts. It is hard to see the defense improving drastically with the experience and talent lost from last year.
To win the MAC East, Buffalo will need some help. The face Bowling Green at home to start conference play on October 3 and they were able to draw Central Michigan from the West. However, they will have to play Northern Illinois at home in November. Buffalo has a chance at getting to six wins with some wins in the toss up games.
6. Kent State Golden Flashes
It has been tough for Kent State since Darrell Hazell‘s departure after the 2012 season when they went 11-3. They have gone a combined 6-17 in 2013 and 2014 while the offensive numbers have slipped and the defensive numbers have gotten worse.
Kent State has 8 players coming back on offense, their most since 2011, which was Hazell’s first season in charge. They have to replace a wide receiver, tight end, and center, otherwise the offense remains intact. Quarterback Colin Reardon has been the starter since the beginning of 2013, but saw a small dip in his numbers last year. He loses his top two receivers, but adds in former West Virginia player Connor Arlia. The running game should also be just fine with Nick Holley returning as starter.
Defensively, Kent State has 9 starters coming back from a defense that gave up 29 points and 430 yards a game in 2014. The biggest area of improvement needed is stopping the run, as Kent State gave up an average of 214 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The two starters need to be replaced on the line. Overall, Kent State returns their top 11 tackles from a season ago and the entire secondary returns, which gave up only 216 yards passing per game. That will be the strength once again.
Kent State has some tough games if they want to win the MAC East. They have back-to-back road games at Toledo (October 10) and Massachusetts (October 17). That is followed up with a home game versus Bowling Green on October 24. After a bye week, they face a winnable game against Buffalo on November 5, but have a quick turnaround to face Ohio on the road November 10.
7. Miami (OH) Redhawks
Year 1 under Chuck Martin saw improvement from the Redhawks. They improved their win total by two, but more importantly they improved on offense and defense. The offense went from 9.8 points per game in 2013 to 22.3 in 2014. The defense went from 35.7 points per game to 31.8 despite only 6 six starters returning.
The unfortunate part for Miami in 2015 on offense is the return of only four starters. They lost their top quarterback, rusher, and receiver from 2014, which puts them in a bad position. The projected replacements at both quarterback and running back are redshirt freshmen. The lone bright spot is the second, third, and fourth leading receivers return. Expect some worse numbers from the offense this season.
The Redhawks will probably continue to improve on defense with 8 starters coming back. The defensive line should improve after giving up 200 rushing yards per game in 2014 as all four starters return. Two of the three linebackers return to help the rush defense including 2014’s second leading tackler in JoeDonlan. The secondary returns two starters as well with the top tackler in 2014 returning in HeathHarding (98 tackles). The defense should improve, but it will need to be a lot better if Miami has hopes of getting near bowl eligibility.
Miami has a tough year ahead in 2015. They have only one winnable game in non-conference action (Presbyterian opening week) and only a few in conference. They drew Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and Eastern Michigan from the MAC West with only the latter being possible as a win. It looks to be another long season for Miami.
The MAC East appears to be coming down to Ohio and Bowling Green. Bowling Green will have an incredibly potent offense while Ohio has more experience returning on both sides of the ball. The meeting between those two teams on November 4 could decide the MAC East representative in the Championship Game.
Outside of those two, Akron, Massachusetts, Kent State, and Buffalo will be vying to make bowl eligibility. Meetings between those teams could determine who makes a bowl game and who does not.
To recap the predicted order of finish:
2. Bowling Green
6. Kent State
7. Miami (OH)
Check back on Friday, July 3 to see the MAC West Preview and who will be predicted to win the MAC Championship in 2015.