Five Predictions For The Big 12 Conference In 2016

Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma lost to Clemson the 2015 College Football Playoffs. How will they fare in 2016? (Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America)
Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma lost to Clemson the 2015 College Football Playoffs. How will they fare in 2016? (Andy Lyons/Getty Images North America)

Five Predictions For The Big 12 Conference In 2016

The 2016 College Football season is coming fast and that means prediction time. Below are five predictions for Big 12 Conference for the 2016 season. Some predictions will be right, some predictions will be wrong, and some will be spectacularly awful (or correct) by the end of the season.

There are no changes for the Big 12 Conference as the ten teams remain the same. Those ten teams are Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia. In addition, the Big 12 employs a true round robin in which each team will play one another.

Here are five predictions for the Big 12 Conference in 2016:

1. Kansas State will make a seventh straight bowl game – Bill Snyder has a special touch with this Kansas State program. He took them from the doldrums in the late 80’s to national prominence in the late 90’s. Since returning to the Wildcats in 2009, Snyder led the team to a bowl game each year with the exception of that 2009 season when they went 6-6.

This year the Wildcats have five starters back on offense and seven back on defense. The defense underperformed last year giving up 31.5 points and 452 yards per game with those totals the highest since Snyder’s return. The defense should be better after a poor 2015 season.

The schedule has some bumps with the opening game at Stanford on Friday, September 2. They also face West Virginia, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, and TCU on the road in conference play, but three wins is not out of the question between those teams. At home the Wildcats will play Florida Atlantic and Missouri State in non-conference (two presumed wins) while playing Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas. The Wildcats looked poised for another bowl game in 2016 and a few upsets look like they are in the cards as well.

2. Oklahoma will lose at least one game they are favored in – This is a common theme for Oklahoma under Bob Stoops, but this one will not necessarily be a bad thing. After the Sooners lost to Texas in 2015, they went on a tear by winning their final seven games and reaching the CFB Playoffs where they lost to Clemson 37-17.

In 2014, Oklahoma lost to TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State while favored in each of those games. In 2013, they lost to Texas as a 12 point favorite while in 2012 they lost to both Kansas State and Notre Dame at home as a double digit favorite. 2011 saw them drop games to Texas Tech (favored by 28.5 points) and Baylor (15.5 point favorites). The chances Oklahoma drops a game they should not are pretty good, but that does not mean the CFB playoffs are out of reach.

3. West Virginia will not win more than 7 games – The offense for West Virginia will be solid in 2016 with eight starters back from a group that put up 34 points and 480 yards per game last season. The defense took a hit as only four starters are back from the 2015 group that allowed 24.6 points and 396 yards per game.

The schedule opens with Missouri and Youngstown State at home before facing BYU in Maryland for a neutral site game. In conference, they play Kansas State, TCU, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Baylor at home while facing Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Iowa State on the road. There does not appear to be enough on the schedule for the West Virginia to get more than seven wins, but they could find their way to a bowl game at 6-6.

4. TCU and Baylor will win 20 games or less combined – TCU went 12-1 in 2014 and 11-2 in 2015 while Baylor went 11-2 in 2014 and 10-3 in 2015. A repeat of even the worst outcome for those two would prove this one wrong.

TCU lost a lot of offensive firepower as quarterback Trevone Boykin, running back Aaron Green, and receiver Josh Doctson have moved on to the NFL. The offense put up 42.1 points and 563 yards per game in 2015 but only three starters are back. TCU does get former Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill for 2016 which definitely helps. The defense for TCU will be the strength as eight starters are back from last year’s group that allowed 27.2 points and 398 yards per game. This group should keep TCU in every game and the Horned Frogs look like the better of the two teams here.

For Baylor, they have plenty of concerns led by the ouster of former head coach Art Briles. He was replaced with Jim Grobe who is more of a defensive minded coach though he has kept most of the assistants from last year. Losing the mastermind of the offense, which has only five starters back, will no doubt hurt. Meanwhile on defense, there are also only five starters back from a unit that allowed 28.3 points and 397 yards per game in 2015. Those numbers were put up with nine starters back last year. There is enough turmoil and turnover that Baylor could take a step back in 2016.

5. Texas and Texas Tech will both make a bowl game – Texas did not make a bowl game in 2015 after going 5-7, but did make a bowl game in Charlie Strong’s first season in 2014 (a 31-7 loss to Arkansas). Texas Tech did the opposite: they missed a bowl game in 2014, but made the Texas Bowl last year where they were crushed by LSU 56-27.

Texas is likely to make a bowl game as they will be in Strong’s third season with seven starters back on offense and eight starters back on defense. The offense improved by five points and 34 yards per game from 2014 to 2015, but the defense took a step back. After allowing 23.8 points and 349 yards per contest in 2014, they gave up 30.3 points and 453 yards per game last year. The Longhorns play Notre Dame and UTEP at home as well as California on the road in non-conference, but there is no reason the Longhorns should not improve enough to have a winning record in 2016.

Texas Tech is the more worrisome team to make a bowl game. The offense will be prolific again in 2016 as they have six starters back led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and a bevy of receivers to throw to. The defense is the worry as they allowed 43.6 points and 548 yards per game in 2015 with eight starters back and now there are six starters back. It could be another year of feasting for Big 12 offenses on the Red Raider defense.

For Texas Tech, they face Stephen F Austin, Arizona State (away), and Louisiana Tech in non-conference and a 2-1 record is likely and 3-0 is possible if they are in a shootout with the Sun Devils. In conference, they play Kansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas at home while facing Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State on the road. Their final conference game is against Baylor in Arlington, Texas.

The Prediction Schedule

With the Big 12 predictions above, there are now predictions for seven conferences in the books. Below are the predictions completed and which conference is next.

July 17 – FBS Independents

July 17 – Sun Belt

July 23 – C-USA

July 24 – MAC

July 30 – American Athletic

July 31 – Mountain West

August 7 – Big 12

August 13 – Atlantic Coast

August 14 – Pac-12

August 20 – Big Ten

August 27 – SEC

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