Monthly Archives: October 2013

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Sprint

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2013 Breeders Cup Sprint – 6 Furlongs Dirt (Race 10, Post Time: 4:01 Pacific Time)

1. Justin Phillip (4-1) – He ran in this race last year finishing 5th by 4 lengths on a track that was anything but kind to the closers. He comes into this race off an eventful 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Vosbrugh. He was bumped repeatedly in the stretch and only lost by a neck. Unfortunately for him, he is drawn on the rail which means he will have traffic issues if he is too far back. Other than that, I think he will run huge. He is my top pick.

2. The Lumber Guy (12-1) – He was 2nd in this race last year to Trinneberg by 3/4 of a length. His form since that race has been horrendous. He has finished 7th three times and his one good race was in a New York State Bred stake at Saratoga. It is difficult to endorse him here based on his performances this year.

3. Gentlemen’s Bet (8-1) – He most recently ran in the Grade 3 Phoenix off a 2 month layoff. He finished 4th only beaten 1 3/4 lengths after closing into a moderate pace. He should be tighter off that race and he has the tactical speed necessary to sit off a hot pace. I think he is a must use on top.

4. Majestic Stride (20-1) – He has won 2 races in a row, but those were in Allowance and Optional Claiming events. He now takes a massive jump into a Grade 1 and he will have plenty of company on the front end. Pass.

5. Sum of the Parts (12-1) – He ran in this race last year and finished 4th by 3 lengths after fighting for the lead. His last race was the Grade Phoenix at Keeneland which was his first start in nearly 4 months. He went gate-to-wire in that race and earned a 100 Beyer number for the effort. Looking through his past performances he has only won in a single fashion: gate-to-wire. I do not see him doing that on Saturday.

6. Bahamian Squall (10-1) –  Yet another horse who is coming coming out of the Vosburgh. He finished 5th beaten 6 lengths. Prior to that, he earned a 104 Beyer number for his 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt. I don’t like his chances to win this event, but he can be a part of the exotics.

7. Private Zone (3-1) – He ran in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen finishing 9th of 13 beaten by 4 3/4 lengths. He did not return for another 5 months but delivered back-to-back wins leading into this event. Both of those were in gate-to-wire fashion and the latest race was in the aforementioned Vosburgh. Given the amount of speed in this race, I do not see him winning and cannot endorse him at a short price. He can hang on for a piece though.

8. Fast Bullet (6-1) – He ran in this event last year finishing 6th beaten 5 1/2 lengths. Note that was only his 3rd career start and first in stakes competition. We last saw him on August 31 in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga where he dueled for the lead and then faltered badly. He finished 7th beaten 15 1/2 lengths. He may not have cared for the slop in the race. Despite the immense talent he has, I cannot endorse especially since it looks like he will be part of the pace.

9. Secret Circle (4-1) – This guy is a former Breeders Cup winner. He won the short lived Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint in 2011 at Churchill Downs. He has never ran out of the exacta in 8 starts and has 6 wins in his career. Last out he was making his first start in a year and a half in an Optional Claiming event and beat a weaker field of 5. He has shown the ability to rate of the speed and that will be a huge asset here. Must use on top.

10. Wine Police (30-1) – He went to the bench in December 2011 before returning in August of this year. He won his comeback race by 1 1/2 lengths and stepped up to the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien Stakes where he ran a respectable 4th. His last race he went to Remington where he won an overnight stake. He looks to be in way too deep here and I will pass on him.

11. Trinniberg (8-1) – Last year he won this race on a speed biased track by 3/4 of a length at odds of 13-1. Since then he has failed to win a race and has been disappointing. His best effort was 2 races ago when he finished 2nd to Bahamian Squall at Calder in a Grade 2 event. His last race was a 7th place finish by 22 1/4 lengths here at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Sprint Championship. I see him struggling again this race. Pass.

12. Laugh Track (20-1) – His last race was in the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland where he ran behind Sum of the Parts. That was his first race in 4 months so he should be fitter this time around. He only has 1 start on dirt, a 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Alysheba at Churchill, but the pedigree says dirt should not be a problem. One thing he does have in his favor is his ability to close ground. Unless there is a speed bias again this year, I like his chances here. For me, he is a must use.

Bets

 I like #1 Justin Phillip so I will wheel him in exacta’s with the 3-6-9-12. I also like #12 Laugh Track enough to put Win-Place-Show on him.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Turf

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2013 Breeders Cup Turf – 1 1/2 Miles Turf (Race 9, Post Time: 3:22 Pacific Time)

1. Vagabond Shoes (IRE) (15-1) – He has really turned the corner since May of this year. In 3 graded stakes, he has not finished worse than 2nd and won the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap. He has never raced as far as this 1 1/2 mile journey and I think he needs to step it up big time to be considered a legitimate threat.

2. Teaks North (30-1) – He has run some big races in the past that has led to 2 Grade 1 Wins. He has raced at this distance 3 times and has failed to hit the board in any of those instances. There is no doubt he will be forwardly placed in this event, but he will need to dig deep to hang on. Pass on him here.

3. Twilight Eclipse (20-1) – He has run in 4 straight Grade 1 races with mixed results. He finished 2nd twice and also finished 5th twice. He does have a good record at 1 1/2 miles; from 4 starts he has 2 wins and a second place. While I do not think he will win, he can provide big value in the 3rd and 4th spot of the exotics.

4. Little Mike (6-1) – He won this race last year at 17-1. He started the year in Dubai where he failed to make an impact in two Group 1 races. He returned to the U.S. where he ran two subpar races in the Grade 1 United Nations (4th by 3 1/4 as the favorite) and Grade 1 Arlington Million (6th by 4 lengths). He returned to form last out in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational where he won by a nose over Big Blue Kitten. Based on the last race he appears to be back in form. You cannot leave this guy out of the top spot.

5. Skyring (30-1) – If this race was at Pimlico, I would definitely consider him. However, this race is a Santa Anita and he does not do well against the top horses in this class. Look for him early, but don’t hold your breath for him at the wire with the leaders.

6. Tale of a Champion (30-1) – He ran in the Turf Sprint last year where he finished 8th. He ran a huge race in the Grade 2 Charlie Whitingham Handicap where he won by a length at 10-1. His latest race in the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup was poor to say the least. He was beaten 9 1/2 lengths, finishing 10th of 12. He has not raced this far in his career and it is tough to see him upsetting this field.

7. The Fugue (GB) (3-1) – She is the lone filly in this field and that will not be a problem for her. She has won multiple Group 1 races in Europe and raced in the 2012 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She finished 3rd that day by 1 1/4. She comes into this race with a 2 race win streak (both Group 1 races) and is the European standout for this field. Do not leave her out.

8. Point of Entry (4-1) – What a great story this would be if he won. He suffered a leg fracture in one of his hind legs in June and has not raced since. He has trained well leading up to the race, but as always, fitness is a concern off the layoff. He raced in this event last year where he finished 2nd by a half-length to Little Mike. He is the best American horse in the event and if he’s ready, he will have a big say. I am going to play against him here because of the layoff.

9. Indy Point (ARG) (9-2) – He started his career in Argentina and won 2 Group 1 stakes on both Dirt and Turf. His first start in the U.S. was very good as he won the Wickerr Stakes at Del Mar. He then tried the Grade 1 Arlington Million but failed badly finishing last of 13. Last out he ran in and won the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup at 1 1/4 miles. I am going to take a stand against him after the performance he had against top Turf competition in the Million.

10. Big Blue Kitten (6-1) – He has had a really good 2013 with 4 wins from 7 starts, never missing the board, and producing over $900,000 in earnings. He just missed out on a third straight Grade 1 race last out when he finished 2nd by a nose to Little Mike in the Turf Classic Invitational. He will be closing in the stretch and he should have the pace to run at. I really like his chances.

11. Magician (IRE) (8-1) – He has not raced since a last place finish in the Group 1 St. James’s Palace Stakes at Ascot in June. Prior to that race, he won a Group 1 in Ireland going a mile and also won a Group 3 in Great Britain going 1 5/16 Miles. While he has never raced this far, his pedigree says that will not be an issue. Based on his comments line, it appears he will be forwardly placed. I don’t doubt his talent, I just think others are more likely here.

12. Real Solution (8-1) – Started his career in Italy where he won 3 of his 5 starts. He has run very well in his 4 U.S. starts which includes three straight Grade 1 Races. He won the Arlington Million after a disqualification to The Apache and then followed that up with a 3rd place in the Turf Classic Invitational behind Little Mike and Big Blue Kitten. I think he is most likley to finish underneath in the exotics.

Bets

I will play the 4-7-10 on top over the 4-8-10-11-12 in the straight race exotics. To me, the winner will come from the 4, 7, or 10 and those are the ones that I will use in multi-race exotics.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile

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2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile – 1 1/16 Miles Dirt (Race 8, Post Time: 2:43 Pacific Time)

1. Smarty’s Echo (20-1) – The son of Smarty Jones has yet to run on dirt, but that should not be an issue. He ran a good 2nd last out in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. He managed to get the lead in the stretch before finishing 2 3/4 lengths behind We Miss Artie who is also in this race. He did start from post 11 in that race and now moves to the fence. I don’t fancy his chances to win, but with E.T. Baird in the reins, I think he has a good shot at adding great value to the underneath spots.

2. Dance With Fate (8-1) – Here is a guy who is getting a lot of attention in this race. He was 2nd last out in the Grade 1 Front Runner here at Santa Anita. That was his first start around 2 turns and there is reason to believe he will improve. He should get a good trip behind the front runners and his workouts have been very good leading up to this. He is a must use on top.

3. Mexikoma (12-1) – Here is a perplexing horse. He debut was on turf at Saratoga where he was 7th of 9 horses. Then he goes to Delaware and simply crushes a Maiden Special Weight field by 14 3/4 lengths. What we don’t know is how classy this guy is. The only reason why I am using this guy on top is because of his sire Birdstone.

4. New Year’s Day (8-1) – He has not been seen since August 31 when he won a MSW at Del Mar by 1 3/4 lengths. We don’t know how good he is, but he has been working very well here at Santa Anita. I’m not about to let a Bob Baffert trained horse beat me here, especially at good odds.

5. Bond Holder (8-1) – He won the aforementioned Grade 1 Front Runner here at Santa Anita. In fact, the broke his maiden in that race. He will be coming off the pace yet again and should have enough speed in front of him. All that said, I don’t think he is as good as others in here, but he must be used underneath.

6. Tap It Rich (6-1) – He has run one race and he won that race in an emphatic fashion. He spotted the field 10 lengths at the start before a strong late kick saw him win by 4 1/4 lengths. That race was at a mile and he is working very well since then. Do not sell his chances short.

7. Cleburne (12-1) – He broke the maiden in his first career start going a mile on Turf at Ellis Park. He followed that up by winning the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs on dirt. He will be coming from off the pace today and should get a nice pace ahead of him. Note he does have 2 workouts here at Santa Anita in preparation for this event. I do not like his chances in this race to win.

8. Conquest Titan (30-1) – His lone start on dirt was his debut where he finished a well beaten 4th. He broke his maiden in an overnight stake at Woodbine going 7 Furlongs on Polytrack. His latest was a 5th place finish in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. I cannot endorse him here, but I will put money on him only because of his sire, Birdstone.

9. Rum Point (30-1) – He broke his maiden 2nd time out at Del Mar going 5.5 furlongs. In 2 follow up races against Grade 1 competition he did not make an impact finishing 9th of 11 in the Del Mar Futurity and 4th of 12 in the Breeders Futurity. He will need to improve big time to make an impact here. Pass.

10. We Miss Artie (8-1) – He broke his maiden over turf and then last out he won the Breeders Futurity by 2 3/4 lengths. His figures are not as good as others in this race, but his last 2 works over this track have been sensational. Yet another horse that could win this race.

11. Medal Count (20-1) – He broke his maiden in his first start going a mile then finished 5th beaten 2 1/4 lengths in the Grade 3 Bourbon. He does not appear as good as some in here and I will side against his chances here.

12. Diamond Bachelor (12-1) – He has started 3 times in his career and all 3 races have been on turf. He won the first 2 races before finishing 2nd last out in the Zuma Beach Stakes here at Santa Anita. It is interesting that he will make his first dirt start in this spot, but his pedigree says he will not mind it. I don’t like the outside draw but I will use him underneath hoping he takes to the surface and adds value to the exotics.

13. Havana (5-2) – In 2 starts this guy has been very, very impressive. He broke his maiden first out while earning a Beyer number of 102. He followed that up with a gate-to-wire win in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont earning a 93 Beyer. The outside post does him no favors and he will have to be tactical from here. A bigger concern for me is the last race where he nearly lost a 4 1/2 length lead in the stretch. He can certainly win, but I will play others with more value.

14. Strong Mandate (6-1) – He broke his maiden 2nd time out at Saratoga winning by 4 1/2 lengths. He followed that up with a smashing performance in the Grade 1 Hopeful winning by 9 3/4 lengths in the slop. His last race was very poor. He was wide, but ended up finishing 7th of 9 beaten 10 1/4 lengths in the Grade 1 Champagne. Given the fact he has another wide draw and his 6-1 morning line, I will play against him.

Bets

This is a very deep race and I see at least 5 horses who can win. In multi-race exotics I will use 2-3-4-6-10 and try to beat #13 Havana. The horses I will use underneath are the 1-5-12. I will put Win-Place-Show money on both #3 Mexikoma and #8 Conquest Titan.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint

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2013 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint – 6.5 Furlongs Turf (Race 6, Post Time: 2:05 Pacific Time)

1. Jeranimo (12-1) – Here is a very classy horse who finally won his second Grade 1 this past July in the Eddie Read Stakes at Del Mar. He is known for being a turf router so it is a bit surprising to see him in this spot. Also keep in mind that he does not have a trip over this downhill turf course. He is a very good horse, but I do not think this is the right place for him. I will pass on his win chances.

2. Rock Me Baby (30-1) – In his last race he ran 7th beaten only 2 lengths in the Grade 3 Eddie D stakes here at Santa Anita. He does have 3 starts over this downhill turf course with a win, a second, and the aforementioned 7th place finish. This guy has been very competitive in Allowance and Cal-Bred races, but this is a whole different ball game. Pass.

3. Chips All In (5-1) – He won the Grade 3 Eddie D. Stakes here at Santa Anita by a nose over Boat trip and continued to show his affinity for the downhill turf course. He has won 2 of his 3 career starts over the course and finished 2nd in the other race. I’m a bit worried that he does not have the same amount of class as some in this field, but you cannot ignore him.

4. Reenesgotzip (5-1) – She is the first of two females to take on the boys in this race. She ran in this race last year finishing 3rd after sitting off the leaders. In her two starts this year she has ran off in both races while winning with ease. One of the races was the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap. I am expecting her to go to lead and hold on for as long as she can. I am going to bet that she will hang on. She is a must use in the win spot.

5. Caracortado (8-1) – This guy is tough to get a handle on. He made his first start in 20 months in the Grade 3 Eddie D Stakes and he ran well finishing 4th only beaten 3/4 of a length. Given that he ran so well, will he repeat that effort or will he bounce of such a big race? His workouts suggest he will run well again and he is a classy horse. My gut tells me to pass on him winning, but I will include him in the exotics.

6. Boat Trip (8-1) – He broke his maiden over the downhill turf course and his latest race had him finishing 2nd to Chips All In in the Eddie D. We know what this guy will do and that is take back and make one big run. He should have the pace to close into as well. I cannot discount this guy from winning.

7. Tightend Touchdown (12-1) – He has been racing on the East Coast in mostly claiming and optional claiming events until the last few races. He has participated in 4 straight stakes races including two Grade 3 events. He has 1 win and 3 seconds from those 4 stake races. He will be on the lead and he will have plenty of company. I do not like his chances of winning here. Pass.

8. Handsome Mike (30-1) – He has made 2 starts since late August and both of those races were poor to say the least. He got crushed in the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien finishing 10th of 12 and then finished last of 10 in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. He does have a win on the downhill turf course, but he looks way out of his league in this race.

9. Capo Bastone (8-1) – He was last seen on August 24th when he came from the clouds to win the Grade 1 Kings Bishop at 28-1. He has never ran on turf, but is certainly bred to like it. I think this guy is better suited as a one turn horse, but this is an odd spot to place a horse for their first turf start. I am going to lean against him.

10. Havelock (10-1) – He ran in the 2011 edition of this race at Churchill when he finished last of 14. He’s had an odd road to the Breeders Cup this year as he started his year in the U.S. and then went overseas where he failed to make any impact in two Group 1 races. He returned to the U.S. and raced in the Grade 3 Woodford at Keeneland where he came from last to win by 2 lengths. He will have plenty of pace to run at the only question is will he be able to get going in time. If he is double digit odds, he may be worth another look.

11. Spring to the Sky (30-1) – He ran in the Grade 3 Woodford where he pressed the blazing pace and then weakened to 3rd beaten 2 1/4 lengths. He will probably employ the same strategy and if he does he will probably suffer the same fate. Pass on him.

12. Mizdirection (4-1) – She is the other female taking on the boys. She won this race last year here at Santa Anita coming off a 5 month layoff. I am willing to put a line through her last race in the Grade 1 Just A Game at Belmont. She is better suited to this Santa Anita downhill turf course where she has only recorded 5 wins from 5 career starts. She is a tactical horse that can adapt to any pace scenario. She is the one to beat here. Leave her out at your own peril.

13. Dimension (GB) (12-1) – He started his career in Great Britain racing in Stakes Handicaps. Since arriving in the U.S. in October 2012, he has raced 7 times and has only won once. His best game is sprinting on the grass, but he figures to be on an extremely hot pace. Pass on his chances here.

14. Unbridled’s Note (8-1) – He also ran in the 2012 edition of this race at Santa Anita. He went off as the 9/2 favorite and finished 2nd by a length to Mizdirection. He used the Eddie D as a prep race in 2012 (finished 1st) and did so again this year. He finished 3rd this time around by half a length. He should be coming off the pace and will have plenty of pace ahead of him. I like this guy as a long shot possibility.

Bets

With such a deep field here I will have to key in on a few horses for the top spot. I will use the 4-12-14 on top in exactas with the 3-4-6-10-12-14. If I were forced to choose only 1 horse in this race I would have to take the chalk and #12 Mizdirection. She has a knack for winning on this downhill turf course.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

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2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint – 7 Furlongs Dirt (Race 6, Post Time: 1:21 Pacific Time)

1. Renee’s Titan (30-1) – It is very surprising to see her in this spot. She is making her 2nd start off a 5 month layoff and her last start was down the hill on the Santa Anita turf course in an Optional Claiming race. She looks completely overmatched in this spot and I cannot endorse under any circumstances.

2. Book Review (6-1) – This filly ran a very nice 2nd in her last outing in the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga. She ran behind Dance To Bristol who is also in this race. She hasn’t raced since August 23, but she has done well off the layoff in the past. Expect her to be rolling late and try to nab them at the wire. Strong chance.

3. Starship Truffles (15-1) – She was an upset winner of the Grade 1 Princess Rooney Handicap at Calder back in early July. In her 2 starts since that race she has not run very well, with a 6th place finish in the Grade 1 Ballerina and then a 3rd place finish in an overnight stake at Gulfstream. I’ll pass on her in this spot.

4. Dance Card (8-1) – Her last race was her 1st start in 10 months and she ran an good 3rd in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom behind Cluster of Stars and Dance To Bristol, the latter is in this race. She should be much fitter in this race, but I think she likes route races better than sprints. I will side against her chances in this race.

5. Teddy’s Promise (6-1) – She took part in last year’s running of this race finishing a well beaten 8th of 10. She follows a similar path as last year where she will be making her 2nd start off a nearly 3 month layoff. She won her last race with ease in an Overnight Stake here at Santa Anita. I’m not sold on her sticking around at the end of this race.

6. Ismene (20-1) – This filly has never raced in graded stakes competition, but she has done very well in Cal-Bred races and an overnight stakes race. She will probably be on the lead along with the horse to her inside. This is a huge step up in class and I am going to pass on her winning this race.

7.  Summer Applause (12-1) – She has been running in Graded Stakes races going a route of ground, but is now shortening up to 7 furlongs. She will be off the pace in this race and that might not be a bad thing if the track is playing fair and if the pace is robust. I don’t like her chances to win this race, but I can see her finishing in one of the underneath spots for the exotics.

8. Dance To Bristol (5-1) – This ultra-consistent filly is one of the favorites to win this race. She won 7 races in a row before her last race in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom where she was 2nd by 5 lengths. She has the perfect running style to win races like this and 5 for 5 in the exacta at this distance of 7 furlongs. She is my pick to win this race.

9. Judy The Beauty (6-1) – She has been a very nice filly so far in her career. She has won in the U.S., France, and Canada and won on both turf and synthetic racing surfaces. She is winless from 5 starts on dirt, but she has finished 2nd all five times. She should be coming off the pace and has been working lights out for this race. I think she is a legitimate contender, but I am concerned she will not have the same late kick on a conventional dirt track that she does on synthetic.

10. Great Hot (BRZ) (20-1) – She ran 2nd behind fellow rival Teddy’s Promise in her last race and previously finished 8th when racing against males in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes at Del Mar. Given her recent races, she is not on the same level as these horses. I will pass on her.

11. Groupie Doll (5-2) – She won the 2012 version of this race and did so in style by 4 1/2 lengths. She has only run 3 times this year with 1 win and 2 third place finishes. She has not been the same horse this year as she was in 2012, but she has been heavily supported at the windows (Odd on favorite in all 3 races). I am concerned about her form this year and she will be one of the favorites, if not the outright favorite. I will try and beat her in the win angle, but she is a must use underneath.

12. Sweet Lulu (8-1) – She is the most inexperienced horse in the field with only 5 career starts. She has won 4 of those races and finished 2nd in the other. 2 starts ago she won the 7 Furlong, Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga and then finished 2nd in the 8.5 furlong, Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx. She has drawn the furthest post and she will be forwardly placed which hurts her. I think she is very talented, but I will take a stand against her to win.

Bets

I really like #8 Dance To Bristol here and I will bet her in this race to Win-Place-Show here. I will single her in several multi-race tickets, but I will use the 2-9-11 on some saver tickets.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf

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2013 Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf – 1 1/4 Miles Turf (Race 5, Post Time: 12:43 Pacific Time)

1. Dank (GB) (5-2) – Her last race in the Grade 1 Beverly D was spectacular and that is why she is the morning line favorite for this race. She absolutely flew by leaders in the stretch to win by an impressive 4 1/4 lengths. She should get another fantastic trip in this race and is the one to beat.

2. Romantica (GB) (6-1) – She has spent her entire career in France and has 4 wins from 10 starts. She is a Group 1 winner in France as 2 races back she beat 5 others to win the Darley Prix Jean Romanet. She loves this distance of 10 Furlongs as she has 3 wins and a second from 4 starts. She also sports a couple of wins over firm turf. She has the looks of a strong upset possibility in this race.

3. Tiz Flirtatious (7-2) – Of the North American based horses, I think she has the best chance at winning. She is spectacular form having won 4 of her 5 starts this year and she absolutely loves the Santa Anita turf course, also having 4 wins from 5 starts. She is working lights out in the morning and will have a big say in this race. Must use on top.

4. Alterite (FR) (10-1) – Since her arrival in the U.S. she has been very impressive. She won her 1st start in the Grade 1 Garden City, then followed that up with a 2nd place finish by a neck in the Grade 1 QE II at Keeneland. She has only 1 start at this distance, a 2nd place finish by a nose in a Group 1 race in France. She’s an interesting long shot in this race who can definitely add value to the exotics.

5. Lady of Shamrock (20-1) – She participated in this race last year where she finished 5th beaten 2 1/2 lengths. Since then she has raced 6 six times this year and won 1 time via disqualification. She has run well in defeat this year, but I she needs to step up her game if she wants to compete with this field.

6. Marketing Mix (7-2) – She ran against Dank in the Beverly D where she finished 4th by 5 3/4 lengths. She followed that race up with a 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive in which she lost by a head to Tiz Flirtatious. She should get a good trip in this race and she has been in the exacta 5 times in 6 starts at this distance. After watching her Beverly D again, I was disappointed that she did not finish better in that race. I do not like her value on Saturday against these horses. I will limit her to underneath in the exotics.

7. Laughing (IRE) (8-1) – She has been on a roll this year with her 4 for 4 record, all of those in Graded Stakes company (2 Grade 1’s, a Grade 2, and a Grade 3). We know what she is going to do and that is go to lead and try to slow them down. And to be honest, it just might work as I do not see any other horse that will go to lead. She might just be able to steal this race on the front end. Don’t sell short from the win angle.

8. Emollient (12-1) – This gal has had an interesting year. She won on dirt, Polytrack, and Turf along with 3 Grade 1 races. Her last race was in the Grade 1 Spinster over Polytrack where she came from well off the pace to run by all her rivals. She does have a win at this distance, but I am not sure where she is going to be placed. She has tactical speed, but will it be used properly? I’m not sold on her chances against this salty group.

9. Qushchi (GB) (20-1) – She ran 4th behind last time out in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational. The horse she was following that day? Laughing who is also in this race. I think she wants more distance than the 10 furlongs she is getting today and I do not think she will do enough to contend. Pass.

10. Kitten’s Dumplings (10-1) – Last time out she beat fellow rival Alterite in the Grade 1 QE II at Keeneland. This will be her 1st start against older horses and her 1st start at a mile and a quarter. I do not like her chances in this race.

Bets

Depending on which horse has the better odds, I will play either #2 Romantica or #7 Laughing. I will also use both of those horses and wheel them up and down in exactas with the 1-3-4-6.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies

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2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies – 1 1/16 Miles Dirt (Race 4, Post Time: 12:05 Pacific Time)

1. Artemis Agrotera (3-1) – She has been very impressive in both of her starts, winning her debut by 11 3/4 lengths and then winning the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont by a 1 1/4 lengths. With her post, she will get a great trip in behind the leaders if she so chooses. She will have plenty of company if she ends up going to the lead.

2. Rosalind (8-1) – She ran a good 2nd in the Grade 1 Alcibiades last out at Keeneland as she came from off the pace. She also ran a solid 3rd in the Grade 3 Pocahontas where she finished behind Untapable. Despite those positives, she will need to show more talent to be competitive here. I will pass on her.

3. Designer Legs (30-1) – She ran huge in the Grade 2 Adirondack where she was placed 1st via disqualification, but her form has tailed off since then. She obviously did not care for the slop 2 races back, but in her last race she had great position, but nothing in the stretch. I will pass on her.

4. Secret Compass (6-1) – She ran a good race last out as she wore down She’s A Tiger in the Grade 1 Chandelier Stakes here at Santa Anita. I really like that she stalked the leaders and then ground her way to a victory. She deserves a long look to win this race.

5. Ria Antonia (30-1) – She started her career in Canada at Woodbine where she had 1 win from 3 starts. In her last start in the Grade 1 Frizette, she saved ground throughout and then failed to rally in the stretch. She will have to make a massive improvement to be considered. Pass.

6. Concave (15-1) – She started her career 2 for 2 with those wins coming on turf and then in the Grade 3 Sorrento over Polytrack. She ran a good 3rd when she was blocked until the stretch. The worry with here is that she has not gone 2 turns yet, but her pedigree suggests it should be no problem. She has some really good works coming into this race as well. I am going to pick her to upset this field.

7. Untapable (5-1) – She is 2 for 2 to start her career including the Grade 2 Pocahontas. She won that coming off the pace after being a bit unruly early on. She should have a good pace ahead of her and that makes her a must use on top.

8. Scandalous Act (8-1) – I am surprised this gal is 8-1 on the morning line. She is 4 for 5 in her career, but 3 of those wins were against Florida-bred competition. Yes, she did win each of those by at least 5 3/4 lengths but in her only stakes race against open competition, she was nowhere to be found. She also has to contend with other speed in here. I will pass on her, especially if she is under double digit odds.

9. Sweet Reason (5-2) – She is the morning line favorite for this race for multiple reasons. She crushed in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga two races back by 5 3/4 lengths and then ran a really good 2nd in the Frizette coming off the pace. That come from behind style will really help her in a race full of speed. I certainly like her chances, but I cannot take her at 5/2.

10. She’s A Tiger (6-1) – In her 5 career races, she has 3 wins and 2 seconds. 2 races back she won the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante and then followed that up with a 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 Chandelier. She draws outside which is not a bad place to be considering all the speed in the race. If she can find a spot before the first turn, she will have a big say in this race.

Bets

I will play Win-Place-Show on #6 Concave as well as wheel her up and down in some exactas. In multi-race exotics I will use 4-6-7-9-10.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Distaff

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2013 Breeders Cup Distaff – 1 1/8 Miles Dirt (Race 10, Post Time: 4:35 Pacific Time)

1. Street Girl (30-1) – She is far and away the longest shot in this field of six and there are a few reasons for that. She has been competitive in her last 3 races (2 Grade 1’s and a Grade 3), but she has not won and she is not on the same level as these horses. Her only chance is to make one run and hope the other 5 horses falter. The longest of longshots in this race.

2. Authenticity (8-1) – She has really turned into a good mare this year; She has 8 starts, 3 wins, 4 seconds, and a third. She ran her best career race last out here at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Zenyatta Stakes behind Beholder. I don’t think she will win this, but she does offer the best value of the race from a win wager standpoint.

3. Close Hatches (6-1) – She is a 3 year old filly taking on elders for the first time and what a time to do so against Royal Delta and Authenticity. Her only bad race was in the 2013 Kentucky Oaks when she was wide and then had nothing in the stretch. She is working brilliantly for this race, but I do not like her chances against Royal Delta and Princess of Sylmar.

4. Royal Delta (8-5) – She is the 2-time defending champion of this race and her career has been spectacular. She should be right on the lead or at least pressing it which would give her first run on the leader(s). She did finish 2nd to Princess of Sylmar last out when she failed to outkick her. She deserves to vie for favoritism and is a must use on top.

5. Beholder (5-2) – She went gate-to-wire last out in the Grade 1 Zenyatta Stakes here at Santa Anita. That was also her first race against older horses. She will be on the lead again, but she will have pace pressure at the very least. She sure does love Santa Anita as she has 5 Wins and a second from 6 starts. I respect her chances, but I think she settles for minor awards.

6. Princess of Sylmar (9-5) – Since her 4th place finish in her debut in October 2012, she has done nothing wrong. She is 8 for 9 since that defeat and her only other race was a 2nd place finish. Last time out, she sat off the pace and let Royal Delta challenge the leader before she swooped by and won by 2 lengths. I think the same thing happens today as she is my top pick.

Bets

I will not be making any bets for this race. This is one of those races you just sit back and watch a great field duke it out. In multi-race wagers I will use the 2-4-6.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

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2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – 1 Mile Turf (Race 9, Post Time: 3:50 Pacific Time)

1. Nesso (20-1) – She has 3 career starts and has improved drastically every time. Her last 2 starts on turf have been solid and she should be in the perfect spot throughout this race. I don’t like her chances to win, but I think she could add value to the exotics.

2. Al Thakhira (GB) (6-1) – She has ran twice over in Europe and has ran 2 really good races. The last race in the Group 2 at Newmarket was smashing over a good-to-soft ground and a 3 1/2 length win. She is a top contender in this race.

3. Colonel Joan (20-1) – She is still winless in her career, but she has run well in defeat including a 3rd place effort in the Surfer Girl Stakes here at Santa Anita. Given the depth of this field, I think she has an outside chance of even getting a slice of the purse money.

4. Kitten Kaboodle (12-1) – She won her first race last time out, in the Grade 3 Jessamine at Keeneland. I think she is a bit light on speed figures from a win standpoint, but if she can work out a good trip, she has a chance in the trifecta and superfecta spot.

5. Granny Mc’s Kitten (20-1) – She broke her maiden the P.G. Johnson stakes at Saratoga in her 2nd career start, but followed up with a ho-hum effort last out in the Grade 3 Ms. Grillo. She did run wide that day, but I think she is a cut below most of these. Pass on her chances from the top 2 or 3 spots.

6. Vorda (FR) (4-1) – She has ran 5 career races and won 4 of those, with the other race being a 2nd place finish. She has already won a Group 1 and a Group 2 race and finished 2nd in another Group 1. She has not raced past 6 furlongs, but if she handles the stretch out, they could all be running for 2nd place.

7. Street Sailing (15-1) – Her last race was a winning effort when she was going 2 turns and stepping onto the grass for the first, but that was in a Non-Winners of 2 Lifetime event. The waters get a lot deeper here, but if she can get an easy lead and set soft fractions, she might be able to hold for a piece.

8. Chriselliam (IRE) (6-1) – She won the Group 1 Shadwell Fillies Mile in her last race at Newmarket and did so at 28-1 odds. The ground was good-to-firm which should suit her on Friday. She certainly loves the mile distance as she has a win and a second place finish. Expect her to make a late rally and hope to run by them all in the stretch. I like her chances if she gets clear sailing.

9. Dancing House (20-1) – She started her career with 2 good dirt races and then moved over to the turf course last race. She finished a decent 3rd in the Grade 3 Ms. Grillo, but I think she is overmatched in here. Pass on her chances.

10. Clenor (IRE) (8-1) – Since arriving in the U.S. this filly has done nothing wrong. She is 3 for 3 in the U.S. and has improved in every start. The latest workouts show she is ready for another big effort. Will that effort be enough to top the Euros? Maybe, but I will use her underneath in the exotics.

11. Ready To Act (8-1) – She is truly the question mark of this field. In her last race, she appeared as if she was going to win when about a furlong out she dumped her rider. We don’t know how good she is and this is a tough field to answer that question. I also think she will have some company on the lead from Street Sailing. I will pass on her win chances here, but I will use her underneath.

12. Testa Rossi (FR) (8-1) – She is 4 for 6 in her career and her last race was mighty impressive in the Ms. Grillo at Belmont. She sat at the rear of the field into the stretch where she blew past the field and then held on to beat Sky Painter by a nose. Another horse that I believe is a must use on the win end.

13. Sky Painter (15-1) – As mentioned in the write up above, she just missed last out by a nose. That was an impressive effort as she was making her first start going a route of ground. She should be mid-pack and could definitely grab a piece late.

14. My Conquestadory (9-2) – One of the favorites when the pre-entries were taken, she has been done in by the widest draw. She beat males in her debut in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes at Woodbine, then won the Grade 1 Alcibiades in her next start. She is a very tactical horse which is why I will not discount her, even from the wide post.

Bets

This is a very deep field and there are many ways to go. In multi-race wagers I will use 2-6-8-10-12-13-14 and keying in on the 6-8-12 combinations. I will use the 6-8-12 on top in exactas and trifectas as well.

Horse Racing

2013 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

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2013 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile – 1 Mile Dirt (Race 8, Post Time: 3:05 Pacific Time)

1. Taptowne (15-1) – He has run very well this year, but those races were against weaker. He will be forwardly placed throughout and that might hurt his chances from a pace scenario. I give him a shot at finishing 3rd or 4th.

2. Golden Ticket (12-1) – His last race was tough one up against the likes of Mucho Macho Man and Paynter where he finished 4th. Both of those horses will run in the Breeders Cup Classic. He does get Joel Rosario aboard who has a win and a second while riding him, but I feel he is best suited to longer races. He can hit the ticket for 3rd or 4th as well.

3. Hymn Book (15-1) – I think he is an interesting long shot possibility. In his last race he finished 3rd in the Grade 2 Kelso while wearing blinkers for the first time. If you watch the replay, he made a nice move and was finishing at the end. I like his chances, especially if the track is playing fair.

4. Brujo de Olleros (BRZ) (8-1) – He too raced in the Grade 2 Kelso, where he finished 2nd, a neck ahead of Hymn Book. Jockey Alan Garcia has clearly gotten him figured out and just like the horse to his inside, if the track is playing fair, watch out. Must use on top.

5. Fed Biz (6-1) – He was 8th of 9 in this race last as a 3 Year old and he comes into this race off a good win in the 7 Furlong, Grade 2 Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He likes Santa Anita (3 wins from 6 starts) and likes this distance (3 wins from 5 starts). My gut feeling is he will be flying late, but if the track isn’t playing to his style, he might be spinning his wheels. I will use him underneath.

6. Broadway Empire (12-1) – This guy is 3 for 3 since taking the blinkers off and those 3 wins have been impressive. His latest was in the Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park when he won by 4 lengths. He is working well, but I think the step up in competition will be too much for him.

7. Alpha (8-1) – He raced over the Santa Anita track last when he was last of 12 in the Breeders Cup Classic. Other than the Grade 1 Woodward, he has not shown much this year. I think he was aided by the slop in that win (which he won’t get on Friday) and I don’t think 8-1 is enough for me to place a bet on him.

8. Holy Lute (20-1) – Lightly raced 3 year old has only 4 starts. He has 2 wins and 2 thirds to his credit and his workouts have been good in the mornings. He gets Mike Smith aboard and I like his chances to add value to the Trifecta and Superfecta here.

9. Centralinteligence (15-1) – He is making his 2nd start off a 4 month layoff after using the Santa Anita Sprint Championship as a prep race for this. He is a Grade 1 winner, but he appears to be more of a sprinter than a miler. I think he is up against it in this field.

10. Verrazano (3-1) – One of the top 3 Year olds opts for this race instead of the Classic. His only 2 poor efforts were going 10 Furlongs and they were against top competition. Was it the distance or the competition? There is no doubt he can win this race, but I am going to bet that he won’t.

11. Pants On Fire (6-1) – His last race in the Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap was impressive. He beat the rail horse Taptowne by 2 3/4 lengths and beat Hymn Book two races back by 1 3/4 lengths. If he does not get suckered into a battle for the lead, he will have a big say in this race.

12. Goldencents (4-1) – His last 3 races have all been very good at the sprint distances and now he stretches out for this effort. Unfortunately for him, he is in the outside post which will require him to use extra effort to get a spot in this race. He has been working lights out for this, but I will use him in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th positions on the tickets.

Also Eligible:

13. Easter Gift (15-1) – He will need a fellow competitor to be scratched from this race to make it into the race. Even if that happens, he will be the outermost horse in the field. His last few races have been very good with figures in the mid 90’s and higher. I think he will find this field too much for him if he draws into the race.

Bets

I will do some Win-Place-Show on the #3 Hymn Book and use the 3-4-11 on top in exactas over 3-4-5-8-11-12.